HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Vachon23]

Asked a bunch of questions on Smith, Benson and Reinbacher to David St-Louis, the head scout for EP.

Really good and thoughtful answers from him so thought I'd share here.

Wow great explanation and I agree with most of what he said !

Always like @DavidStLouis opinion

 

[waitin425]

Gotta move up to 3 to get him if you want him bad. SJ will take him at 4. And even if that's not 100% sure, why take that chance?

What would you deal for 3rd?

 

[26Mats]

What would you deal for 3rd?

5th, plus Beck, Matheson, and Florida 1st are on the table (again, if I'm a scout and after doing the research I find that Michkov is the real deal).

You?

 

[Mrb1p]

Question, let's say you have two lists of 5 players from this draft, and it turns out 8 years from now that the two lists look like this in hindsight.

List 1: 1 50 point player, 2 30 point forward, 1 top 4 d, a bust
List 2: 1 85 point player, 4 stone cold busts

Discuss.

As in, which one is more of a "success" in drafting? If so, it depends on consensus too. Id say overall the best player is the most important.

Shoot for the playmakers and fill the needs later.

 

[Vachon23]

No teams in the top 3 is gonna trade there pick

 

[Saxon]

Question, let's say you have two lists of 5 players from this draft, and it turns out 8 years from now that the two lists look like this in hindsight.

List 1: 1 50 point player, 2 30 point forward, 1 top 4 d, a bust
List 2: 1 85 point player, 4 stone cold busts

Discuss.

List 2. List 1 is the GM’s job via trade and free agency.

 

[NotProkofievian]

As in, which one is more of a "success" in drafting? If so, it depends on consensus too. Id say overall the best player is the most important.

Shoot for the playmakers and fill the needs later.

Yeah, which would you rather have with perfect 20/20 hindsight.

 

[waitin425]

5th, plus Beck, Matheson, and Florida 1st are on the table (again, if I'm a scout and after doing the research I find that Michkov is the real deal).

You?

If we could move up from 5th to 3rd at that cost, I would probably do it to secure Michkov.

Beck is still a huge unknown and could either be a Phil Danault type 3rd line centre or a career AHLer. Matheson is the only tough pill to swallow with that move up. But, I would do it.

 

[26Mats]

No teams in the top 3 is gonna trade there pick

It depends on how much of a gap there is between Carlsson and Smith in Columbus's eyes. If there's not much of a gap, why wouldn't they move down to 5 if it is written into the deal that we'll select Michkov at 3?

 

[Vachon23]

It depends on how much of a gap there is between Carlsson and Smith in Columbus's eyes. If there's not much of a gap, why wouldn't they move down to 5 if it is written into the deal that we'll select Michkov at 3?

If Hugo move in the top 3, it would be fore Carlsson or Fantilli. I don't even think they will select Michkov at 5.

And SJ could take Smith if we take Carlsson at 3, don't think Jarmo would take that risk

 

[26Mats]

If Hugo move in the top 3, it would be fore Carlsson or Fantilli. I don't even think they will select Michkov at 5.

And SJ could take Smith if we take Carlsson at 3, don't think Jarmo would take that risk

That's why it's written into the deal that we take Michkov at 3, so that Jarmo gets his C at 5...

We don't know how Habs brass see Michkov. So what would you do if you wanted Michkov?

 

[Vachon23]

That's why it's written into the deal that we take Michkov at 3, so that Jarmo gets his C at 5...

We don't know how Habs brass see Michkov. So what would you do if you wanted Michkov?

I would trade up without a doubt for Fantilli, It could even be 1st 2023 (#5) + 2024 1st round (top 3 protected) + 2nd round pick 2024

I would trade up for Carlsson too (but would be less ready to pay as much then I would for Fantilli)

But I don't think I would pay to trade up for Michkov, way to much risk for me. I would take him at 5 though

 

[Mrb1p]

Yeah, which would you rather have with perfect 20/20 hindsight.

If by top 4 D you mean, 2nd pairing type of guy and not anything within the top 4, then def the 85 points forward, provided hes not heavily flawed and carried by linemates but a true 85er. I think its pretty easy as a decision.

All the former can be bought with league currency, the latter has to be gambled on or paid at a premium price.

If we were to put a name, it would be like Kyle Connor to Jake Debrusk, Matt Grelczyk, Trent Frederic and Craig Smith ?

Of course the 2nd option isnt bad and provides a lot of depth, but its not very close for me.

 

[NekkiChiconey]

Question, let's say you have two lists of 5 players from this draft, and it turns out 8 years from now that the two lists look like this in hindsight.

List 1: 1 50 point player, 2 30 point forward, 1 top 4 d, a bust
List 2: 1 85 point player, 4 stone cold busts

Discuss.

Only scenario I'd consider 1 is if the "50 point player" is actually a defenseman. Could be a future Smith vs. Reinbacher debate if both hit.

 

[NekkiChiconey]

For what it's worth (not much), I feel like they'll go for either Reinbacher or Leonard. If so, in a vacuum, I won't be mad at the pick. I would gladly take a Jiricek or Cutter Gauthier. I'll be disappointed that they aren't willing to take risks in the name of skill, or to maximize value. We'll see.

 

[Doublechin]

For what it's worth (not much), I feel like they'll go for either Reinbacher or Leonard. If so, in a vacuum, I won't be mad at the pick. I would gladly take a Jiricek or Cutter Gauthier. I'll be disappointed that they aren't willing to take risks in the name of skill, or to maximize value. We'll see.

If I was a betting man, which i am, I'd bet on us drafting either of these 2 players

 

[Lockin17]

what do you guys think picking Tanner Molendyk with pick #31 ??
Like the way he skates , really mobile .

 

[Vachon23]

 

[Kent Nilsson]

At this point I am convinced San Jose will take Michkov. It just makes too much sense for them. Fits their timeline and Grier will give himself a very long leash.

I think our pick is either Smith or Reinbacher. Will come down to their perception of Smith’s flaws, how much they think they can live with/correct them.

 

[NotProkofievian]

what do you guys think picking Tanner Molendyk with pick #31 ??
Like the way he skates , really mobile .

Perhaps the best skater in the whole draft.

 

[Lockin17]

Perhaps the best skater in the whole draft.

After Oliver Moore

 

[waitin425]

I've been wondering about him. I think he could have some great upside. The only issue I see, is I don't see him as a 1st rounder. There are better players available. Also, I really hope we use our 2nd rounder on one of the goalies. I don't see him available at #69 but if he is, 100% we should grab him there.

 

[Doublechin]

I've been wondering about him. I think he could have some great upside. The only issue I see, is I don't see him as a 1st rounder. There are better players available. Also, I really hope we use our 2nd rounder on one of the goalies. I don't see him available at #69 but if he is, 100% we should grab him there.

I'd think that if available at 31 or 32 he might be part of our target list, good skater, good shot, good in his zone with solid size, he checks most boxes.

I'd much rather players like him or Strbak at 31 or 37 then Reinbacher at 5 personally and that's not a knock on Reinbacher but getting high end forwards is way more common earlier in the draft where as for D men, there's quite often elite ones later in the draft.

 

[Andrei79]

Question, let's say you have two lists of 5 players from this draft, and it turns out 8 years from now that the two lists look like this in hindsight.

List 1: 1 50 point player, 2 30 point forward, 1 top 4 d, a bust
List 2: 1 85 point player, 4 stone cold busts

Discuss.

I guess it depends on the teams situation. For example, list number 1 would've helped the Leafs quite a bit, but list number 2 could have been traded for a high end defenseman. Where list 1 has underrated value is who those players would be ? Like, is the 50 point player Sergei Kostitsyn or Kevin Hayes. Are the 30 point players Lehkonen and Anderson, or are they Charles Hudon. What kind of top 4 is the D ? Is it Brett Pesce ? Romanov, a guy who can be traded for Dach ?There's so much variability in quality even for second pair guys.

That said, as a general rule, it's hard not to go with list number 2. List 1 just sounds like the Timmins special before the Timmins special was a 30 point player and 4 stone cold busts. You could also argue list number 1 was our 2018 draft. Would you trade everyone in that draft (Ylonen, Harris, Romanov and KK) for Brady Tkachuk ?

 

[NekkiChiconey]

At this point I am convinced San Jose will take Michkov. It just makes too much sense for them. Fits their timeline and Grier will give himself a very long leash.

I think our pick is either Smith or Reinbacher. Will come down to their perception of Smith’s flaws, how much they think they can live with/correct them.

At this point I wish Michkov gets picked 4th, it would definitely lessen the blow. I just have a feeling they would go Leonard over Smith, which wouldn't be a bad decision imo. If they consider that Dach and Suzuki are both future top-6 Cs (they probably do) then they might prefer Leonard's profile as a winger.