HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[TomKosto]

I completely disagree with you, I think Benson would be NHL average. And my prior point was Caufields size and although I didn't mention it, his skating, isn't as important as he doesn't have a pick dominant game. Also Crosby also had one of the best edges I've seen. Maybe Benson develops it but I just don't see it. We can agree to disagree, I just don't see Benson in the same tier as some players that the Habs have the chance to take

Too much talent and drive to be average at the nhl.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Too much talent and drive to be average at the nhl.

I'm not saying he's average, he's gonna be a star. I said his skating will be around NHL average

 

[McGees]

I don't make any decisions about the 5th overall pick based on washed up vets and mediocre prospects, is the answer. You can't pass on a great talent based on those types of players.

Gally is a 4th liner at this point. So he's irrelevant to the top 6. I'd re-sign Monahan and Guri, so I mentioned them. But I think Heineman and Ylonen are closes to top 9 duties if you don't want to take Monahan and Guri into consideration. An they're not small - but I wouldn't take them into consideration when thinking of the 5th overall pick.

I'm not saying our decision should be made on the vets, but we should be honest about our line-up and top prospects who project to be on the team in next couple years. Id consider a smol guy if he was elite.

 

[Mrb1p]

I completely disagree with you, I think Benson would be NHL average. And my prior point was Caufields size and although I didn't mention it, his skating, isn't as important as he doesn't have a pick dominant game. Also Crosby also had one of the best edges I've seen. Maybe Benson develops it but I just don't see it. We can agree to disagree, I just don't see Benson in the same tier as some players that the Habs have the chance to take

Watch Benson, he has insane edges. His body is always moving.

I have no doubt his edges are top tier.

 

[26Mats]

I'm not saying our decision should be made on the vets, but we should be honest about our line-up and top prospects who project to be on the team in next couple years. Id consider a smol guy if he was elite.

I was talking about top 6 players. Which small players in the organization right now are sure fire or even highly touted top 6 players? I see only Caufiled.

I'm a big RHP fan. But I have him penciled in on the 3rd line. Gallagher's on the 4th line until he gets bought out or goes on LTIR.

 

[Doublechin]

Get a feeling Gabe Perreault will be available at 31, even 37. The offensive awareness is truly off the charts, the skating is just atrocious.

Would you pick him?

Yes I would

I'd say the odds of him being there are close to 0% though unless he lacks basic IQ during interviews

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Watch Benson, he has insane edges. His body is always moving.

I have no doubt his edges are top tier.

He has good edges. But to say he's Crosby level is hyperbolic in the perfect sense of the word. Like I said, I think Benson, along with the rest of the projected top 9, will be stars, Im just careful especially come playoff time of players who are small and not elite skaters while evening pick dominant 2hich a player like Caufield doesn't have to be. Benson does to be effective. The players like point, zuc, kucherov, etc that were mentioned are clearly better skaters than Benson.

 

[AHShadow]

*cracks knuckles*

All right.

1) Very hard questions because I think part of the reason why people like Smith so much is because of the favourable environment in which he played. If you put Cooley between Perreault and Leonard, he would score a lot and his finer skills (his deception) would shine a lot more. So it would depend on who would get the better usage. That said, if we run this as a thought experiment and say that they're playing in parallel worlds with the same quality teammates, then, I think Cooley would get drafted a bit higher. He's more dynamic (makes his plays at higher speeds) and projects better in terms of two-way play. It's extremely close. Smith is a better manipulator, one of the best feinters I've seen.

Honestly, it would depend on the team and what they value.

2) Smith and Zegras are very similar. The difference is that Zegras was way more aggressive, more physical, and meaner even. That side of his game didn't add that much to his projection, but I think he was clearly more competitive than Smith. So, overall, I think Zegras was a slightly better prospect.

Still, I didn't like him that much in his DY. I have a bias against these types of players. I know it. When ranking players like Smith or Cooley or Cristall or Stutzle, I have to fight this bias and remember what I learned over the past years. I'm getting better at it.

Top prospects in creative and free environments like the USNTDP like to experiment -- a lot. Just because they make bad decisions doesn't mean they lack hockey sense. You have to evaluate their flashes, their great moments, and project what they could become as they mature (while also taking into account their projectable flaws).

3) You can ask questions about anything. I really think they should target Benson and I'm sure they really like him, too. He's everything scouts love -- except for the size/skating combo. But Habs do consider team-building when drafting. I would be surprised to see them draft Benson, considering Caufield and maybe even Farrell. I think having two smaller players on two different top-six lines is perfectly fine, but there's a lack of precedent in the playoffs. That may scare them. They will probably target Smith, Leonard, or Reinbacher. All 3 are great choices at 5, tbh. I believe in Reinbacher even if we have him lower. Not as exciting, but could become very effective.

4) Honestly, I think it's just a matter of the 2023 NHL draft being way stronger than the 2022 one. Both prospects are almost equal in my mind. So we have Reinbacher at 9, but in 2022, he would probably have been in our top-4 somewhere. Reinbacher is a better defender and mover and Jiricek has more a better offensive instinct. He's a better playmaker. If I had to pick, I would still choose Jiricek, but it's very close. We believe in him, but Jiricek needs to improve his skating.



Thank you, everyone, for the kind words!

1) I think 6 is a fair grade for Fantilli's skating (obviously since it's our guide haha). 6.5 would have been fine, too. He has a lot of power, a lot of speed in a straight line when he gets going, and I like his crossovers. 6 is a clear above-NHL average projection, so it's a good mark.

When we evaluate skating, we give more weight to agility than other scouting services, I think. We care more about posture and weight shifting and cutbacks and pivots...Those fine movements that players are required to master in the NHL to evade pressure in tight spaces. Fantilli is more speedy and quick than agile. He skates a bit wide, a bit hunched over, and makes many of his moves in a glide. So, we appreciate the power, but to reach a 7, 8, or 9, like Molendyk or Moore, he would need to become even more fluid in his changes of direction (which is hard for a player his size). His agility isn't a weakness, but closer to NHL average than high-end, in terms of projection.

2) We try to respect the work of regional scouts when making our board. So if they have a player ahead of another one, we try our best to keep it that way, and we were pretty good at that this time around. Hard disagreements are rare inside our team because we're all reasonable people and we're discussing these players together during the season, so people already know what to expect when we meet to make our board for the most part. And we're also pretty clear about our formula to rank. We value upside the most, but also the chance of prospects reaching their upside (and many other things to a lesser extent).

I think everyone has been at EP long enough to have kind of internalized how our list will work and where prospects should go.

That said, disagreements do happen. In that case, crossover scouts and our team leaders decide what to do. It makes sense, too, because they have seen the most prospects in a draft.

So it's a mix of respecting people's work, everyone understanding our general philosophy and being relatively aligned on it, and some people having more say in the end, if needed.

So far, even if we make mistakes, it works very well. Honestly, everyone on our team is fantastic and gets along well (...from my perception at least haha).

3) We don't watch prospects as closely in their D-1, but a good D-1 is always factored in. The reason we didn't drop Salé further than where we have him is that we know his talents are still there. He showed them before.

But I find, that when you watch a D-1 prospect, you tend to not factor in flaws as much. Subconsciously. you're always thinking ''ah well he's young, I like the strengths and the rest will fix itself'' but then, if you go back and watch the tapes months later, you realize that the flaws were bigger back then than what you thought. You simply didn't focus on them as much.

So the answer is we factor in a bit, but the draft year is a lot more important, not only because we want to see progress, but because I don't trust D-1 evaluations as much.

4) We do like gamers, but we don't value them as much as other agencies or NHL scouts. Honestly, the clutch factor is often quite random (unless you're a Tkachuk). We like tournament viewings simply because it gives us another look at prospects in a different environment.

Smith became more efficient at the u18s, more engaged overall. We liked that, so he moved up. We wanted to see Cristall perform in a team where he would have to share the puck more and check harder. He didn't perform. His flaws became too hard to stomach. He dropped. Cam Allen is a good example of us dropping a prospect due to his inability to handle outside pressure, however.

5) I like video viewings more than live ones. I'm in the minority here, but while I do the work of a scout, and I'm very invested in it, what I enjoy the most is explaining the details of the game and presenting prospects to the public. Video viewings allow me to take clips and prepare articles and videos. I can rewind and look at multiple prospects. Video is also way more efficient.

My answer would change if I worked for a team, however, as it's much easier to evaluate skating and shooting live than on video. Camera angles play with your speed perception. I hate that.


He fits their style. I think it's a real possibility.

Asked a bunch of questions on Smith, Benson and Reinbacher to David St-Louis, the head scout for EP.

Really good and thoughtful answers from him so thought I'd share here.

 

[Mrb1p]

He has good edges. But to say he's Crosby level is hyperbolic in the perfect sense of the word. Like I said, I think Benson, along with the rest of the projected top 9, will be stars, Im just careful especially come playoff time of players who are small and not elite skaters while evening pick dominant 2hich a player like Caufield doesn't have to be. Benson does to be effective. The players like point, zuc, kucherov, etc that were mentioned are clearly better skaters than Benson.

Are they? Even right now im not sure thats accurate and its clearly not on draft day.

Ill dig my heels in on this one, respectfully.

 

[Mrb1p]

Bedard, 2023 NHL Draft prospects enjoy 'incredible' time at Cup Final | NHL.com

Tour Las Vegas, meet Panthers, Golden Knights players before Game 2

www.nhl.com

Im 12 years older than him and 30 pounds heavier than him but i think Fantilli is my dad.

 

[Kennerback]

Bedard, 2023 NHL Draft prospects enjoy 'incredible' time at Cup Final | NHL.com

Tour Las Vegas, meet Panthers, Golden Knights players before Game 2

www.nhl.com

Hey where’s easymoneymaker999 at?

 

[Mrb1p]

Asked a bunch of questions on Smith, Benson and Reinbacher to David St-Louis, the head scout for EP.

Really good and thoughtful answers from him so thought I'd share here.

Thanks for this man! Great work.

I like what he says about Benson and limit testing, but I see a lot of flaws with the EP team in their skating evaluation and the way they rank (regional focused). Theres no way Fantilli is a 6, that like calling Suzuki a 6 at shooting.

Hey where’s easymoneymaker999 at?

Hes right there in the thumbnail pic? The tallest one. The ice cold looking one.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Are they? Even right now im not sure thats accurate and its clearly not on draft day.

Ill dig my heels in and say you dont know shit, respectfully.

That's fine, I just don't think Benson is an elite skater. In short bursts he great, his edge work is great like you mentioned (just don't compare him to prime Crosby) but I don't see him as an effective neutral zone transitioner as a pick dominant player. He's great at turning it on to finish plays in the o zone but he's just not my first, second or third choice at 5

 

[Mrb1p]

That's fine, I just don't think Benson is an elite skater. In short bursts he great, his edge work is great like you mentioned (just don't compare him to prime Crosby) but I don't see him as an effective neutral zone transitioner as a pick dominant player. He's great at turning it on to finish plays in the o zone but he's just not my first, second or third choice at 5

If hes not crosby, hes a 9.5.

Also his transition ability and his chess-playing is literally his best ability. The way he creates space with his puck movement is the best in the draft and rivals anyone I can remember in like the last 10 drafts. Im not even scared about this.

Really the only problem he could have is his small space play, and really? With the Hands and processing he has?

(I edited my comment bc it was rude, I value ur opinion, Im just a few beers in.)

 

[McGees]

I was talking about top 6 players. Which small players in the organization right now are sure fire or even highly touted top 6 players? I see only Caufiled.

I'm a big RHP fan. But I have him penciled in on the 3rd line. Gallagher's on the 4th line until he gets bought out or goes on LTIR.

RHP Mesar and Farrell are 3 of our top 5 prospects probably and Roy and Beck are avg at best.

 

[26Mats]

RHP Mesar and Farrell are 3 of our top 5 prospects probably and Roy and Beck are avg at best.

I wouldn't base who I pick top 5 based on having any of those names in the system.

If those are our top prospects then we definitely have a huge need for top talent in the top 6, regardless of size.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Question, let's say you have two lists of 5 players from this draft, and it turns out 8 years from now that the two lists look like this in hindsight.

List 1: 1 50 point player, 2 30 point forward, 1 top 4 d, a bust
List 2: 1 85 point player, 4 stone cold busts

Discuss.

 

[26Mats]

Question, let's say you have two lists of 5 players from this draft, and it turns out 8 years from now that the two lists look like this in hindsight.

List 1: 1 50 point player, 2 30 point forward, 1 top 4 d, a bust
List 2: 1 85 point player, 4 stone cold busts

Discuss.

It's not so cut and dry because the 40 point player and top 4 D could be really good, gritty two way players.

But short of the best possible versions of a 50 point player and a top 4d, and the worst possible version of an 85 point player, I easily take list 2, the 85 point player.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Yes I would

I'd say the odds of him being there are close to 0% though unless he lacks basic IQ during interviews

Shouldn't that be EQ? Communication is emotional intelligence.

 

[waitin425]

This is my current top 10 with their high end player comparables if they meet their potential. I also used the old HF scale to score them (for those of you old enough to remember!)

Some of the comparables are based on my own observations mixed with some reading of prospect websites and who they are comparing them too.

Bedard - Crosby like impact - 9.5A
Michkov - Bure - 9.5C
Fantilli - Toews - 9B
Carlsson - Barkov - 9B
Smith - Modano - 8.5C
Benson - Marner - 8.5C
Reinbacher - McDonagh - 8B
Dvorsky - Horvat - 7.5B
Moore - Larkin - 7.5B
Leonard - Bjorkstand - 7.5B

Michkov is THE guy at 5. I want him more than anyone.

 

[Team_Spirit]

 

[Vachon23]

Carlsson is huge !

I could be interested in bald men if those 4 are pick and we don't take Michkov

 

[26Mats]

Yes I would

I'd say the odds of him being there are close to 0% though unless he lacks basic IQ during interviews

I think you're right. But he is small and has skating issues. If there's any type of player that is most likely to drop, that's the type.

 

[Team_Spirit]

 

[26Mats]

This is my current top 10 with their high end player comparables if they meet their potential. I also used the old HF scale to score them (for those of you old enough to remember!)

Some of the comparables are based on my own observations mixed with some reading of prospect websites and who they are comparing them too.

Bedard - Crosby like impact - 9.5A
Michkov - Bure - 9.5C
Fantilli - Toews - 9B
Carlsson - Barkov - 9B
Smith - Modano - 8.5C
Benson - Marner - 8.5C
Reinbacher - McDonagh - 8B
Dvorsky - Horvat - 7.5B
Moore - Larkin - 7.5B
Leonard - Bjorkstand - 7.5B

Michkov is THE guy at 5. I want him more than anyone.

Gotta move up to 3 to get him if you want him bad. SJ will take him at 4. And even if that's not 100% sure, why take that chance?