HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Goldenhands]

Dvorsky and Reinbacher concern me because they haven’t demonstrated offense worthy for a very high first round pick.

Leonard concerns me because he’s never had in his whole life a season where his assists weren’t dwarfed by his goals. He virtually has zero passing game.

I’m also concerned that in any context or competition he’s always out pointed by Perreault and Smith. And that they always score as many goals as Leonard but have a bunch more assists. He’s also visibly less of a skilled stick handler than the two others.

Your arguments are easily refutable on all points. Reinbacher actually produced more offense than Seider in a better men league, he has more pts than Josi and most notable big time NHLers coming from top euro leagues. Dvorsky produced at an all time rate in J20 this year, destroyed the Hlinka 2 yrs ago and just had an amazing U18 showing where he carried team Slovakia on his shoulder and came few seconds away from eliminating team Canada. Once again, you are falling in the same trap as most fans or amator scouts do, giving too much value to numbers when it comes to 17-18 yrs old kids playing in top men euro leagues, Not to mention that Dvorsky hasnt turned 18 yet, one of the youngest players in the draft.

As for Leonard, he was the only one on his line caring about defense, he was doing the center job Smith didnt want or couldnt do, he was also the one doing the dirty work all over the ice for his linemates. Leonard's toolkbox is much more translatable or projectable than the other 2.

 

[SOLR]

Dvorsky and Reinbacher concern me because they haven’t demonstrated offense worthy for a very high first round pick.

Leonard concerns me because he’s never had in his whole life a season where his assists weren’t dwarfed by his goals. He virtually has zero passing game.

I’m also concerned that in any context or competition he’s always out pointed by Perreault and Smith. And that they always score as many goals as Leonard but have a bunch more assists. He’s also visibly less of a skilled stick handler than the two others.

You are apparently selectively choosing to look at the samples that conform with your bias.

Dvorsky is the biggest producer in international tournaments for Slovakia for a long time.
Then he went to play in the most defensive league around, with the pros, at 17, and you choose that as an offensive reference point, I mean...

Reinbacher, pretty rare to see this level of production at this age in the pros for a D, even if it's a tier 2 league. Ok - he's not a tier 1 D, but he looks like a tier 2 to me (still first pairing).

Leonard is bad because he scores more goals than assist? Let's not draft Caufield or Ovechkin then, not sure how this is a valid argument at all.

Perreault and Smith are playmakers of course they will get more points. At this level. But Leonard has the grit to make the difference at the next level.

 

[Kennerback]

Your arguments are easily refutable on all points. Reinbacher actually produced more offense than Seider in a better men league, he has more pts than Josi and most notable big time NHLers coming from top euro leagues. Dvorsky produced at an all time rate in J20 this year, destroyed the Hlinka 2 yrs ago and just had an amazing U18 showing where he carried team Slovakia on his shoulder and came few seconds away from eliminating team Canada. Once again, you are falling in the same trap as most fans or amator scouts do, giving too much value to numbers when it comes to 17-18 yrs old kids playing in top men euro leagues, Not to mention that Dvorsky hasnt turned 18 yet, one of the youngest players in the draft.

As for Leonard, he was the only one on his line caring about defense, he was doing the center job Smith didnt want or couldnt do, he was also the one doing the dirty work all over the ice for his linemates. Leonard's toolkbox is much more translatable or projectable than the other 2.

I would be less worried less for Reinbacher because Ds take more time to pan out which would give me 3 more years of job security.

 

[Draft]

Dvorsky is getting over-scouted.

Everyone has their shiny new toys and all Dvorsky has done… is be consistently dominant against his age group (offensively and defensively), perform very well in a pro league, and be one of the best two-way C prospects we’ve seen in the last five years. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft, but he’s treated like he’s finished product.

Dvorsky gets dinged for his skating... but Wood has all the potential ceiling in the world despite the fact he's got the agility and turning radius of an 18 wheeler.

Despite the fact that Dvorsky has shown that he can be adaptable offensively against pros and productive/a driver with his age group, he gets criticized for not playing a junior style game like Smith... and at the same time Leonard is neither creative nor a playmaker and still gets put in that top-5 conversation.

He was my vote for U18 MVP and I think he's still got a ton of runway left if he can work on his skating and be encouraged to open up the ice a bit and be more creative offensively. In my mind, his floor is near a 2C, his ceiling is a two-way 1C that tilts the ice for your team. I'm very keen on the fact that he can be in the AHL and developing alongside our other best offensive prospects.

I'd have a very long look at him at #5.

 

[Kennerback]

You are apparently selectively choosing to look at the samples that conform with your bias.

Dvorsky is the biggest producer in international tournaments for Slovakia for a long time.
Then he went to play in the most defensive league around, with the pros, at 17, and you choose that as an offensive reference point, I mean...

Reinbacher, pretty rare to see this level of production at this age in the pros for a D, even if it's a tier 2 league. Ok - he's not a tier 1 D, but he looks like a tier 2 to me (still first pairing).

Leonard is bad because he scores more goals than assist? Let's not draft Caufield or Ovechkin then, not sure how this is a valid argument at all.

Perreault and Smith are playmakers of course they will get more points. At this level. But Leonard has the grit to make the difference at the next level.

Biggest international producer for Slovakia after Slafkovsky of course who was doing it vs adults. I also found Slafkofsky faster, more dynamic and energetic in the shortened WJC than Dvorsky this season. Dvorsky has a good shot , but skill wise and skating I think he’s very average at best. It’s in the eye of the beholder I guess.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

They are nowhere near the concern potential of Wright, Slaf, Cooley or much of the 2022 class.

This isn't the 2022 class, it's the 2023 class. Why is last year's class relevant? We're talking about getting the best player in this draft.

 

[SOLR]

Biggest international producer for Slovakia after Slafkovsky of course who was doing it vs adults. I also found Slafkofsky faster, more dynamic and energetic in the shortened WJC than Dvorsky this season. Dvorsky has a good shot , but skill wise and skating I think he’s very average at best. It’s in the eye of the beholder I guess.

No, Dvorsky is about 3x on Slafkovski for international points since 15. They are not even in the same league. Dvorsky is much closer to Bedard in those point totals. Ok, he's not Bedard dynamic, but his 2-way play cannot be ignored.

 

[SOLR]

This isn't the 2022 class, it's the 2023 class. Why is last year's class relevant? We're talking about getting the best player in this draft.

You are talking about this class out of context, that's why it matters. This top 8 is a lot stronger than most years and has fewer concerns.

 

[Goldenhands]

Dvorsky is getting over-scouted.

Everyone has their shiny new toys and all Dvorsky has done… is be consistently dominant against his age group (offensively and defensively), perform very well in a pro league, and be one of the best two-way C prospects we’ve seen in the last five years. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft, but he’s treated like he’s finished product.

Dvorsky gets dinged for his skating... but Wood has all the potential ceiling in the world despite the fact he's got the agility and turning radius of an 18 wheeler.

Despite the fact that Dvorsky has shown that he can be adaptable offensively against pros and productive/a driver with his age group, he gets criticized for not playing a junior style game like Smith... and at the same time Leonard is neither creative nor a playmaker and still gets put in that top-5 conversation.

He was my vote for U18 MVP and I think he's still got a ton of runway left if he can work on his skating and be encouraged to open up the ice a bit and be more creative offensively. In my mind, his floor is near a 2C, his ceiling is a two-way 1C that tilts the ice for your team. I'm very keen on the fact that he can be in the AHL and developing alongside our other best offensive prospects.

I'd have a very long look at him at #5.

Solid post. A kid like Smith constantly slow the pace down, it works well on a strong team against weak opposition, but wont work at the pro when time/space is limited, will have to generate offense in a more direct north south way and cut on the turnovers. Also, he will have to develop his puck protection skills, which ones are almost non existant right now. He mainly relies on smarts and instincts, but once again, when you reach the pros, you have to use your frame to keep possession, maybe it will come as he gains more strength, but right now its hard to project that aspect of his game down the road. Dvorsky doesnt have those issues, he is actually a strong puck possession player already.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

You are talking about this class out of context, that's why it matters. This top 8 is a lot stronger than most years and has fewer concerns.

Your whole line of reasoning is out of context. It doesn't matter that Leonard might be better than Slafkovsky. Michkov is a generational talent and I want the best player on our team. I also have concerns with all three of the designated 6-8 players.

You parroting that there are no concerns with them over and over does not negate that opinion. The concerns are relative to the top 5, not to the 2022 class.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Dvorsky is getting over-scouted.

Everyone has their shiny new toys and all Dvorsky has done… is be consistently dominant against his age group (offensively and defensively), perform very well in a pro league, and be one of the best two-way C prospects we’ve seen in the last five years. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft, but he’s treated like he’s finished product.

Dvorsky gets dinged for his skating... but Wood has all the potential ceiling in the world despite the fact he's got the agility and turning radius of an 18 wheeler.

Despite the fact that Dvorsky has shown that he can be adaptable offensively against pros and productive/a driver with his age group, he gets criticized for not playing a junior style game like Smith... and at the same time Leonard is neither creative nor a playmaker and still gets put in that top-5 conversation.

He was my vote for U18 MVP and I think he's still got a ton of runway left if he can work on his skating and be encouraged to open up the ice a bit and be more creative offensively. In my mind, his floor is near a 2C, his ceiling is a two-way 1C that tilts the ice for your team. I'm very keen on the fact that he can be in the AHL and developing alongside our other best offensive prospects.

I'd have a very long look at him at #5.

I don't understand what is with the idea of taking a player who struggled at a lower pro level, and sticking him in a higher pro level. Dvorsky's last pro games were healthy scratches. If we do take Dvorsky, I will be very upset if he's anywhere but Sweden.

 

[Belial]

I don't understand what is with the idea of taking a player who struggled at a lower pro level, and sticking him in a higher pro level. Dvorsky's last pro games were healthy scratches. If we do take Dvorsky, I will be very upset if he's anywhere but Sweden.

I can't see a scenario where they pick Dvorsky.

I think they'll pick Leonard over Dvorsky if they have to pick between those two.

 

[WentWughes]

Any RHD’s you guys are interested in the late 1st early second? Dragacevic has awesome numbers but his defence is horrible and skating is mediocre. Willander I like a lot but should be gone by then. More specifically with the early 2nd Cameron Allen is interesting, really good all around game and can play physical with a strong outlet pass, may be a tad too early for him though. Obviously we can’t be reaching for need anyway though and it will be interesting to see who drops to the late first and if we can get an exciting boom or bust player with the 31st pick.

 

[SlafySZN]

Any RHD’s you guys are interested in the late 1st early second? Dragacevic has awesome numbers but his defence is horrible and skating is mediocre. Willander I like a lot but should be gone by then. More specifically with the early 2nd Cameron Allen is interesting, really good all around game and can play physical with a strong outlet pass, may be a tad too early for him though. Obviously we can’t be reaching for need anyway though and it will be interesting to see who drops to the late first and if we can get an exciting boom or bust player with the 31st pick.

Matthew Mania, not sure where he could end up being picked though.

37th may be too soon and too late with the 69th pick.

 

[Habitant#1]

Any RHD’s you guys are interested in the late 1st early second? Dragacevic has awesome numbers but his defence is horrible and skating is mediocre. Willander I like a lot but should be gone by then. More specifically with the early 2nd Cameron Allen is interesting, really good all around game and can play physical with a strong outlet pass, may be a tad too early for him though. Obviously we can’t be reaching for need anyway though and it will be interesting to see who drops to the late first and if we can get an exciting boom or bust player with the 31st pick.

Bonk maybe?

 

[ReHabs]

Leonard is a decent passer but his game is about winning 1on1 and outskate, out compete the opponent. These are VERY valuable skills at the NHL level. I think people are sleeping on Leonard because of the tag "safe" associated with him. Somehow the scouting report on him is not that different to a guy like Tkachuk that we passed on because he was a safe pick. You win hockey games with player like him in your team.

You can't expect to win 1on1s, outskate, and out-compete opponents in the NHL. The difference between the player and his opponents in the NHL level is much smaller than the difference between the player and his opponents in his current league and competitions.

I'd venture to say the player who plays the most efficient game is the one to target -- the one who doesn't need to win board battles or 1on1s to produce points.

 

[Belial]

You can't expect to win 1on1s, outskate, and out-compete opponents in the NHL. The difference between the player and his opponents in the NHL level is much smaller than the difference between the player and his opponents in his current league and competitions.

I'd venture to say the player who plays the most efficient game is the one to target -- the one who doesn't need to win board battles or 1on1s to produce points.

The problem with this logic is that you'll rarely see someone playing on the outside his entire junior career and then suddenly become a physical monster that cuts to the net as soon as he gets to the NHL.

 

[ReHabs]

The problem with this logic is that you'll rarely see someone playing on the outside his entire junior career and then suddenly become a physical monster that cuts to the net as soon as he gets to the NHL.

There aren't too many players like that in the NHL to begin with, I don't think it's fair to expect a skill prospect to develop into a powerforward. Most players find way to produce with their skills, speed, or smarts rather than strength.

I would love to have a top6 that can forecheck relentlessly but there just aren't too many skill players who also play a power game. In any case we don't need someone who only plays on the outside, that's a big red flag, but if he can play a variety of ways it's a good sign. To put it basically: he should be able to pass.

 

[Belial]

There aren't too many players like that in the NHL to begin with, I don't think it's fair to expect a skill prospect to develop into a powerforward. Most players find way to produce with their skills, speed, or smarts rather than strength.

I would love to have a top6 that can forecheck relentlessly but there just aren't too many skill players who also play a power game. In any case we don't need someone who only plays on the outside, that's a big red flag, but if he can play a variety of ways it's a good sign. To put it basically: he should be able to pass.

Drouin was able to pass

 

[Schooner Guy]

Biggest international producer for Slovakia after Slafkovsky of course who was doing it vs adults. I also found Slafkofsky faster, more dynamic and energetic in the shortened WJC than Dvorsky this season. Dvorsky has a good shot , but skill wise and skating I think he’s very average at best. It’s in the eye of the beholder I guess.

Dvorsky was in a shutdown center role as a 17 year old at the WJC. He was matched against Cooley and was a key to Slovakia upsetting the powerhouse USA in the round robin. He was then matched up against Wright (Bedard on that line) in the QF and Slovakia came close to pulling off a massive upset which went to OT. He ate them alive in the face-off dot. He also still put up 3 points in 5 games at that WJC as a 17 year old in his draft year.

Not sure how you can think of him as average at best skill wise after his crazy offensive performance at the WU18 with no support, a tough schedule and other teams game planning around trying to shut him down. I can't imagine the numbers he would have put up with Leonard and Perrault on his wings and USA's easy schedule.

I'm not saying he should be our guy at #5 but suggesting he isn't dynamic or energetic and has average at best skill level is outrageous.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

You can't expect to win 1on1s, outskate, and out-compete opponents in the NHL. The difference between the player and his opponents in the NHL level is much smaller than the difference between the player and his opponents in his current league and competitions.

I'd venture to say the player who plays the most efficient game is the one to target -- the one who doesn't need to win board battles or 1on1s to produce points.

I respectufully disagree. There have been MANY cases of elite talent that cannot adjust to the NHL because of how intense and physical it going from elite junior competition compared to the pro.

In the NHL everybody is talented and every little details are important and you need to be extremely competitive to survive and excel at the pro level. Even players that are can't miss or with elite traits have a hard time suceeding.

With Leonard, his MAIN strength it's his competitiveness and leadership does it mean he has nothing else? f*** no. The guy has been producing at every level and he has been part of the elite since he is 15 years old.

His ability to win 1on1 and outskate is not his only strength but he is elite at it. He has a great shot, very good hockey IQ, very smart offensively and defensively, he never back down from physical play and he is from all account already acting like pro outside the rink.

If you think he is just a flop to happen you will be very dissapointed. He is most likely going to become a captain and a pain in the ass to play against, you know like the Marchand and Tkachuk of the NHL. I do not know where he will be drafted but the team that get him will most likely make high five and celebrate to have drafted him just like the Sens did when Tkachuk fell into their lap.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

I hope we have the same philosophy this coming draft. This in my mind is always how the draft should be approached and stated by one of the better hockey minds in the NHL. Just a shame we had to deal with Trevor Timmons and his garbage picks for years, bizarre how long of a leash he got after getting lucky in 2007. Players like Tinordi, McCarron, DeLaRose, Lernout, Tuch, and Crisp should have never been selected. Even if they did hit their full potential players like that are relatively easily acquired. Even a pick like Leonard would be depressing, maybe controversial to some but his floor is a 3rd line 2way player, if we pass on Michkov for him that would ultra frustrating.

If we are passing on Michkov should take a massive swing for Wood - maybe trade back but feel like he will be a guy everyone will be saying why did he get drafted so late with his size and stats once he figures out skating especially with the smallish size of our forward prospects

 

[Schooner Guy]

Any RHD’s you guys are interested in the late 1st early second? Dragacevic has awesome numbers but his defence is horrible and skating is mediocre. Willander I like a lot but should be gone by then. More specifically with the early 2nd Cameron Allen is interesting, really good all around game and can play physical with a strong outlet pass, may be a tad too early for him though. Obviously we can’t be reaching for need anyway though and it will be interesting to see who drops to the late first and if we can get an exciting boom or bust player with the 31st pick.

I wouldn't even take Allen in the 3rd round. Brutal season and got constantly exposed at the WU18. Average skills across the board. His footwork is terrible. He can't open up lanes in the offensive zone as there's nothing elusive about him. He outgrew his peers at an early age and has always been physically strong. From all accounts is a great team guy. I just don't see any upside. He's a modern day Dalton Thrower.

 

[SOLR]

Your whole line of reasoning is out of context. It doesn't matter that Leonard might be better than Slafkovsky. Michkov is a generational talent and I want the best player on our team. I also have concerns with all three of the designated 6-8 players.

You parroting that there are no concerns with them over and over does not negate that opinion. The concerns are relative to the top 5, not to the 2022 class.

And what are these concerns with the top 5?

 

[SOLR]

I wouldn't even take Allen in the 3rd round. Brutal season and got constantly exposed at the WU18. Average skills across the board. His footwork is terrible. He can't open up lanes in the offensive zone as there's nothing elusive about him. He outgrew his peers at an early age and has always been physically strong. From all accounts is a great team guy. I just don't see any upside. He's a modern day Dalton Thrower.

I think you are going WAY too far with this. He didn't get "exposed" at the U18. He was part of the first pairing. He has some issues but as a defensive D, he's worth a lot more than a 3rd rounder.