HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

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I didn't say you're wrong, but you didn't qualify why your impression of the prospect is so much better than most other scouts'. That's what I'm trying to personally understand... because some of you commentators are so knowledgeable about prospects and hobbyist scouts, not in spite of it. I'm not doubting your position, I just want to understand more.

Of course nobody needs a consensus and we are just shooting the shit but it's easy to say "I think Benson is going to be the next Marchand and Reinbacher will peak at 30pts" and then say it's just an opinion, but what does that help?

Sorry you felt attacked. It wasn't my intention to upset you or anyone. Simply put, some of us want to understand the rubric by which amateur players are scouted and connect the dots so-to-speak to see a better, more high-resolution picture.

Your claim against respecting the scouting consensus is dead-wrong however, it's been long said that the consolidated draft ranking outperforms most (or all?) teams' personalized draft results. More data points gives a better picture. And given the Habs are one of the worst teams in the NHL at the draft table it is absolutely within our purview as fans to not want them to go off-the-board with an unusual or unexpected pick. Naturally many of us will bristle at the notion of drafting a dman in this forward-heavy 2023 Draft, and it's even more suspect that so many in this thread refer to Reinbacher as if he's already Shea Weber and cannot even bring up any single criticism or flaw. There's a gap between the tone of the discourse about Reinbacher here and elsewhere.
Appreciate the response, I won't go as far as saying I felt attacked but general frustration at the mindset on this board sometimes. You see a whole lot of "if we don't draft x or if we pass on y it would be a huge mistake/i will be really disappointed". People don't want to entertain anybody outside of what they believe to be a consensus top 5, but how often does a draft really work out like that? Not only where a consensus pre-draft group all go within that group, but then all end up being the best of the draft? Without actually diving into it I would hazard a guess at never. Reviewing consensus or consolidated rankings can be valuable in a comparison sense, you can gauge how the league or scouts as a whole view players and compare that to how you view a player yourself, but it shouldn't be used as your whole evaluation (obviously). Scouting is an in-exact science and there isn't really a right or wrong opinion on draft day. You just need to do your due diligence, make your projections and pick the guy you think will provide the biggest impact on your team, regardless of what the rankings say.

On Reinbacher: you've asked on what his weaknesses are, the honest answer is it's hard to really pinpoint a real serious weakness. A lot of the intrigue with him is he is incredibly well rounded. If I had to pick some, his puckhandling and hands are pretty average, and there is some doubt about his overall offensive upside. He plays a very 'efficient' game, he doesn't have high end vision or playmaking skills, he has a solid shot but nothing outstanding. He creates offense by moving the puck up ice well and just by making consistent, smart, plays. I won't say that he is a spot on comparison, but I think if he really hits his upside he could have a Pietrangelo kind of impact. Not an offensive stud by any means, but he will put up points through smart plays and solid puck movement. I find his game to be very easily translatable, and he's already shown he can play and produce in a high level league even at a young age, which is a big plus.

I've never faulted anyone for preferring Smith, we can all see the offensive IQ and skill that kid has, I just question how likely he is to actually hit that high end potential. He really reminds me a lot of someone like Huberdeau, supremely talented, but is he able to drive the bus on his own at the next level? Or does he require a line that can provide him with time and space? I will say though that Marty's system could be a great fit for him, especially if guys like Dach/Slaf pan out or we acquire PLD. Big bodies like those guys that can create space for Smith and finish his plays could work really well.
 
This is probably my favorite thread on this board every year, I really love armchair scouting, but man can it get insufferable in the last run up to the draft.

So many people you don't see all year coming in and making arguments solely based on what they see in public rankings. Saying crap like "if they pass on the top 5 I'll be mad, don't galaxy brain this pick".

Like actually imagine your scouts have done their due diligence and decided that Leonard or Dvorsky or whoever is their BPA. But "oh, darn! He's not top 5 on the scouting lists, we shouldn't overthink this, let's go with the consensus guy." Why even have a scouting staff at all?

And the funniest part is the people making this argument will attack you for not following in lockstep with the consensus, despite self admittedly not having had any viewings themselves. Jeez Louise
/endrant

I love how many posters derive their "consensus" from sites that don't have any actual scouts working for them. I get it, as that is all that is available but to act like real scouts are going against the consensus opinion of fake scouts seems a little odd. How do we know what the consensus would be from real scours? The McKenzie list is the closest thing to a consensus that we have access to but it is a miniscule sample size where the participants have motives to be less than honest.

It is fun to read different opinions but many of these online draft ranking sites are staffed by people who not only have never played the game but have likely never played any competitive sport especially ones that involve physical contact/intimidation/violence and the risk of being embarrassed in front of crowds and/or tv audiences.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion but the problem is that there is waaaayy too much credibility given to people who don't know anything about the game at ice level or how to competently evaluate prospects because they have never been mentored by a real scout or at the very least had real scouts to bounce ideas off of. Scouting is far from an exact science and nobody on this board would be useful tomorrow in an NHL draft meeting because none of us have the live viewings and behind the scene interactions with players, coaches, trainers, GM's etc that are essential to assessing a prospects relative value. That Of course should not stop us from passionately debating the draft but I think a little more humility is in order. When you have posters declaring certain prospects as definitively better than other prospects who are likely in the same/similar tier and then praying for some luck on draft day to prematurely celebrate declare victory on their month's of online posturing it really is a little bizarre.
 
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Juolevi had no physicality at all to his game and his tools overrated. I had Sergachev over him and it was not particulary close.
Juolevi pick was so bad. Never liked him. I was in my grandma's basement in New York watching that draft. When Vancouver picked juolevi over Keller and Tkachuk, and Sergachev, I died laughing
 
Hardest NO that I can possibly express lol.

Goalies are proven to be, by orders of magnitude the most difficult position to project an 18 year old boy's development. There is just no point taking random shots in the dark with premium picks when, even if you hit on them it won't likely produce a legitimate starting goaltender for 6-8 years at which point they are about to be a UFA or have already left as a UFA in many cases. Let other team's spend all of this time developing a player who is of limited use to them and then jump in and sign them when they actually prove something.

Draft them in the middle to late rounds when all positions are a shot in the dark. More starting goalies are drafted from the late second to the 7th round then are drafted in the first and early 2nd round.

You only need one starting goalie and they are easily acquired.
Not true. Goalie on 1sr and 2nd round have good stats. On later round. Welcome to guys like frederick dichow
 
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I'd say competition matters when you are contextualizing results.

Reinbacher wasn't dummying a bunch of tier 3 players in the NLA.. He was producing at a crazy good rate for a draft eligible in the NLA, a league where most young players don't get an opportunity to play.

I'd say that sheds a good light on his numbers vs. negating them.

Auston Matthews went to the NLA for his draft year, he wouldn't have chosen a terrible league.
Matthews didn’t Pick a terrible league, but he also didn’t Base ont on strenght he likely pick the league that paid the most and offered the best conditions...
 
Matthews didn’t Pick a terrible league, but he also didn’t Base ont on strenght he likely pick the league that paid the most and offered the best conditions...

Both of those things tend to correlate positively with strength. Players tend to bounce from league to league to follow the money wherever they can. Bad seasons lead to transfers to lesser leagues, good seasons lead to transfers to better leagues, leading to an accumulation effect.
 
If you want to be entertained, draft Michkov or Smith
If you want to win, draft Leonard.

This is a very simplistic way of looking at things. It's not necessarily an either/or proposition. What if I want to win while being entertained?

I don't remember Guy Lafleur's panache being a drag on the Habs' fortunes. Or Patrick Kane's razzle dazzle getting in the way of the Blackhawks winning multiple cups.

When a player of the ilk of Michkov is available, you grab him with both hands. The opportunity does not come around very often. He is the rarest of all breeds. Ditto for Smith, if our scouting department feels he has anywhere near that potential.

Rugged scoring forwards (Leonard) and minute-munching 2-way RDs (Reinbacher) are valuable assets and do not grow on trees. But they are in no way as difficult to acquire as the game-breaking superstar. Apart from a few brief months of Kovalev, the Canadians have toiled away without one since the time when Lafleur graced the Forum ice. It's been decades and I'm sick of it.

So keep your Leonards and Reinbachers and--damn the topedos--let's reach for the brass ring.
 
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Not true. Goalie on 1sr and 2nd round have good stats. On later round. Welcome to guys like frederick dichow

You are wrong and I have proved as much in the past with an extensive post detailing as much. I can't be bothered to look for it but if you did any research at all you wouldn't make such an unfounded and untrue claim.

I said 1st round and early 2nd round btw.

Here are the top 25 GAA among goalies and their draft position with at least 20 games from this season.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]
Name​
[/TD]

[TD]
GP​
[/TD]

[TD]
GAA​
[/TD]

[TD]
Drafted​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ullmark[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]1.89[/TD]
[TD]163rd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gustavsson[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]2.10[/TD]
[TD]55th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Raanta[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]2.23[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Swayman[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]2.27[/TD]
[TD]111th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Samsonov[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]2.33[/TD]
[TD]22nd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sorokin[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]2.34[/TD]
[TD]78th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oettinger[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]2.37[/TD]
[TD]26th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kochetkov[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]2.44[/TD]
[TD]36th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hill[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]2.45[/TD]
[TD]76th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vanecek[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]2.45[/TD]
[TD]39th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andersen[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]2.48[/TD]
[TD]87th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shesterkin[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]2.48[/TD]
[TD]118th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hellebuyck[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]2.49[/TD]
[TD]130th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Georgiev[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]2.53[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Copley[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]2.64[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vasilevskiy[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]2.65[/TD]
[TD]19th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thompson[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]2.65[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Saros[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]2.69[/TD]
[TD]99th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Varlamov[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]2.70[/TD]
[TD]23rd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Halak[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]2.72[/TD]
[TD]271st[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Wedgewood[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]2.72[/TD]
[TD]84th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Skinner[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]2.75[/TD]
[TD]78th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grubauer[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]2.85[/TD]
[TD]112th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fleury[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]2.85[/TD]
[TD]1st...........[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kuemper[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]2.87[/TD]
[TD]160th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

18 of the top 25 GAA among goalies with at least 20 games belonged to goalies drafted no earlier than late 2nd round (55th).

And just to top it off here are likely the two top Goalie prospects in the NHL and their draft position

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Wolf[/TD]
[TD]214th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Devin Levi[/TD]
[TD]212th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

The Stanley Cup Finals boast an Undrafted G (Bobrovsky who has won two Vezina trophies) and Hill (3rd rd 76th) going head to head with Bobrovsky the clear cut leader for the Conn Smythe coming into the series.

Here are the last 15 Vezina winners

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Shesterkin[/TD]
[TD]118th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fleury[/TD]
[TD]1st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hellebuyck[/TD]
[TD]130th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vasilevskiy[/TD]
[TD]19th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rinne[/TD]
[TD]258th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobrovsky[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Holtby[/TD]
[TD]93rd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Price[/TD]
[TD]5th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rask[/TD]
[TD]21st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobrovsky[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lundqvist[/TD]
[TD]205th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thomas[/TD]
[TD]217th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miller[/TD]
[TD]138th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lundqvist[/TD]
[TD]205th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brodeur[/TD]
[TD]20th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

10 of the last 15 Vezina awards have been given to goalies taken in the 4th round or later with 6 of them either undrafted or later than the 200th pick. I am also going to go out on a limb here and add Ullmark to this list as the 2022/23 winner and he was a 6th round pick (163rd).

To provide some further context only 2 of this years top 25 scorers were drafted later than the 2nd round Point (3rd round 79th) and Panarin (undrafted) it should be pretty obvious as to which road is the safer bet by multiple orders of magnitude. You draft the best skaters early and take shots late in the draft for goaltenders.

I could go into much further depth like I have in the past but I can't be bothered to do that or to try and find my posts as this is a non discussion. Taking goalies early is a terrible idea and there is nothing resembling a rational argument to counter this conclusion.
 
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Red line report rankings are out. Interesting top 10 order to say the least.

The RLP is always interesting at least they actually scout the players even though Kyle falls in love with weird players every year. I like that he had Benson & Wood both firmly in the top 10 and he calls it like it is with Michkov.
 
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I talked about him in the Mem Cup thread last night but Myatovic is a guy I'd target if he's still on the board with our 3rd rounder. Big guy, very mobile. Really strong two way player. Watching him through the playoffs and mem cup he's a hound on the puck, always applying defensive pressure. He's really active in the D zone, he comes down low to help out constantly and isn't just sitting at the point. He's not the most skilled guy but he has a solid offensive touch and he's always parking himself in front of the net. Just a really smart player that consistently makes the right play. I really like his game and think he can be a valuable middle six two way winger that will put up 20-20 and play your PK.
 
The RLP is always interesting at least they actually scout the players even though Kyle falls in love with weird players every year. I like that he had Benson & Wood both firmly in the top 10 and he calls it like it is with Michkov.

I see these things as entertainment, they have no real value other than that. Relative to actual scouts I think Woodlief is a clown show like Pronman and Wheeler but good on him for finding a way to profit on something that he enjoys.
 
I talked about him in the Mem Cup thread last night but Myatovic is a guy I'd target if he's still on the board with our 3rd rounder. Big guy, very mobile. Really strong two way player. Watching him through the playoffs and mem cup he's a hound on the puck, always applying defensive pressure. He's really active in the D zone, he comes down low to help out constantly and isn't just sitting at the point. He's not the most skilled guy but he has a solid offensive touch and he's always parking himself in front of the net. Just a really smart player that consistently makes the right play. I really like his game and think he can be a valuable middle six two way winger that will put up 20-20 and play your PK.
He's an option with later pick for sure
 
Besides the Combine and the interviews, I'm assuming these teams have a pretty good idea of their lists....Apart from Marc Bergevin, I doubt too many execs are changing their lists based on the bench press scores or grip strength results.



That actually made me laugh my *** off......thank you for that.
 
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A top 2 Dmen is way more valuable then a 70 pts winger, especially if that winger dosen’t bring anything else
I think the odds that Smith hits 70 pts are much higher than Reinbacher becomes a top-2. Reinbacher has little creativity in his game, that includes in his break-outs. His hands are nothing special. Some of his defensive decisions are suspect. So many things need to happen before he gets to Top-2.
 
You are wrong and I have proved as much in the past with an extensive post detailing as much. I can't be bothered to look for it but if you did any research at all you wouldn't make such an unfounded and untrue claim.

I said 1st round and early 2nd round btw.

Here are the top 25 GAA among goalies and their draft position with at least 20 games from this season.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]
Name​
[/TD]

[TD]
GP​
[/TD]

[TD]
GAA​
[/TD]

[TD]
Drafted​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ullmark[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]1.89[/TD]
[TD]163rd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gustavsson[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]2.10[/TD]
[TD]55th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Raanta[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]2.23[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Swayman[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]2.27[/TD]
[TD]111th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Samsonov[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]2.33[/TD]
[TD]22nd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sorokin[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]2.34[/TD]
[TD]78th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oettinger[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]2.37[/TD]
[TD]26th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kochetkov[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]2.44[/TD]
[TD]36th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hill[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]2.45[/TD]
[TD]76th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vanecek[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]2.45[/TD]
[TD]39th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andersen[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]2.48[/TD]
[TD]87th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shesterkin[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]2.48[/TD]
[TD]118th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hellebuyck[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]2.49[/TD]
[TD]130th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Georgiev[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]2.53[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Copley[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]2.64[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vasilevskiy[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]2.65[/TD]
[TD]19th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thompson[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]2.65[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Saros[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]2.69[/TD]
[TD]99th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Varlamov[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]2.70[/TD]
[TD]23rd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Halak[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]2.72[/TD]
[TD]271st[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Wedgewood[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]2.72[/TD]
[TD]84th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Skinner[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]2.75[/TD]
[TD]78th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grubauer[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]2.85[/TD]
[TD]112th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fleury[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]2.85[/TD]
[TD]1st...........[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kuemper[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]2.87[/TD]
[TD]160th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

18 of the top 25 GAA among goalies with at least 20 games belonged to goalies drafted no earlier than late 2nd round (55th).

And just to top it off here are likely the two top Goalie prospects in the NHL and their draft position

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Wolf[/TD]
[TD]214th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Devin Levi[/TD]
[TD]212th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

The Stanley Cup Finals boast an Undrafted G (Bobrovsky who has won two Vezina trophies) and Hill (3rd rd 76th) going head to head with Bobrovsky the clear cut leader for the Conn Smythe coming into the series.

Here are the last 15 Vezina winners

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Shesterkin[/TD]
[TD]118th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fleury[/TD]
[TD]1st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hellebuyck[/TD]
[TD]130th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vasilevskiy[/TD]
[TD]19th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rinne[/TD]
[TD]258th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobrovsky[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Holtby[/TD]
[TD]93rd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Price[/TD]
[TD]5th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rask[/TD]
[TD]21st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobrovsky[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lundqvist[/TD]
[TD]205th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thomas[/TD]
[TD]217th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miller[/TD]
[TD]138th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lundqvist[/TD]
[TD]205th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brodeur[/TD]
[TD]20th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

10 of the last 15 Vezina awards have been given to goalies taken in the 4th round or later with 6 of them either undrafted or later than the 200th pick. I am also going to go out on a limb here and add Ullmark to this list as the 2022/23 winner and he was a 6th round pick (163rd).

To provide some further context only 2 of this years top 25 scorers were drafted later than the 2nd round Point (3rd round 79th) and Panarin (undrafted) it should be pretty obvious as to which road is the safer bet by multiple orders of magnitude. You draft the best skaters early and take shots late in the draft for goaltenders.

I could go into much further depth like I have in the past but I can't be bothered to do that or to try and find my posts as this is a non discussion. Taking goalies early is a terrible idea and there is nothing resembling a rational argument to counter this conclusion.

That's all nice and all, but it's not very scientific outside of saying a general "goalies are more unpredictable than skaters".

There is still a correlation between draft position and performance it's just quite a bit weaker. Where players might be around 0.7, goalies are around 0.4 - you don't want to ignore it completely.
 
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