HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Estimated_Prophet]

This 100%.

One thing I think people tend to overlook a lot is the impact a strong defenseman like Reinbacher has on your overall offense as well. A guy like him who could play 25 strong minutes of killing plays and efficiently moving the puck back up ice to his forwards allows for more offense. Smith putting up 70-80 points helps the offense of his linemates. Reinbacher putting up 50pts and tilting the ice out of your own zone consistently helps your entire forward core create offense. And that's without even taking into account each player's defensive impact, where Reinbacher blows Smith out of the water.

I like Smith a lot, and he's probably my #6 right now after Reinbacher, but at this point I don't know if he ends up a better finished prospect offensively than Suzuki, Caufield or even Dach (people forget this guy was a #3 overall in a good draft for some reason?). And I'm not convinced whatsoever that Smith is a center in the long run either. On the other hand, I think you take Reinbacher and there's a strong, strong chance he ends up our best defenseman.

I am a huge proponent of drafting dmen and centers but Reinbacher just isn't that good imo. He is good, but he is a typical mid first rounder who is more likely a future 2nd pairing dman dman in a terribly weak dman class. If we are going to draft a dman with our first then they must trade back. If Detroit would move 9 and 17 for 5 and 31/32 and Reinbacher is there at 9 I could live with that but he just is not in any way worth taking at 5 OA imo.

 

[SlafySZN]

For me, Ryan Leonard is this year’s Slafkovsky. As in a prospect I like all year long but when people start to CLEARLY overvalue them, I bail.

Leonard is underrated if anything!

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I'm at the point where I think Hughes should just take will smith and dip

 

[ReHabs]

Smith putting up 70-80 points helps the offense of his linemates. Reinbacher putting up 50pts and tilting the ice out of your own zone consistently helps your entire forward core create offense. And that's without even taking into account each player's defensive impact, where Reinbacher blows Smith out of the water.

So once again, in your scenario Smith doesn't hit his ceiling but Reinbacher blows past any reasonable ceiling anyone has for him and becomes the next Shea Weber. Okay!

 

[KevSkillz4]

Leonard is underrated if anything!

Agree with you. I would be certainly happy to add that type of player on Habs.

 

[26Mats]

This 100%.

One thing I think people tend to overlook a lot is the impact a strong defenseman like Reinbacher has on your overall offense as well. A guy like him who could play 25 strong minutes of killing plays and efficiently moving the puck back up ice to his forwards allows for more offense. Smith putting up 70-80 points helps the offense of his linemates. Reinbacher putting up 50pts and tilting the ice out of your own zone consistently helps your entire forward core create offense. And that's without even taking into account each player's defensive impact, where Reinbacher blows Smith out of the water.

I like Smith a lot, and he's probably my #6 right now after Reinbacher, but at this point I don't know if he ends up a better finished prospect offensively than Suzuki, Caufield or even Dach (people forget this guy was a #3 overall in a good draft for some reason?). And I'm not convinced whatsoever that Smith is a center in the long run either. On the other hand, I think you take Reinbacher and there's a strong, strong chance he ends up our best defenseman.

So once again, in your scenario Smith doesn't hit his ceiling but Reinbacher blows past any reasonable ceiling anyone has for him and becomes the next Shea Weber. Okay!

You guys are wasting your time. Let the scouts, the professionals, assess ceiling, floor, and probability of hitting that ceiling. Then we'll see on draft day what they come up with.

Then we'll see in 7 years which scouts did the best job.

Then we can have meaningful discussions, seeing what the players actually became.

 

[ReHabs]

Then we can have meaningful discussions, seeing what the players actually became.

It's hard to have a meaningful discussion or analysis -- or even a meta-analysis about drafting trends -- when it's constantly apples-to-oranges comparisons. @JoelWarlord had the right idea with their posts but most other commentary on Reinbacher minimizes (or eliminates) all his flaws or doubts or criticisms and maximizes his potential but not that of the player to whom he's being compared (be it ASP, Smith, Leonard, etc.).

 

[Redux91]

I'm at the point where I think Hughes should just take will smith and dip

If he's there..

 

[SlafySZN]

If he's there..

Lol exactly.

 

[Gainesvillain]

Why are Smith’s weaknesses and Michkov’s weaknesses magnified but there is nothing to say about Reinbacher’s profile? If he’s really flawless then he would be ranked much higher on many more lists — no?

Olli Juolevi had all the skills/tools and was projected as a high-floor can't-miss D. Went 5OA too,

 

[Seb]

Olli Juolevi had all the skills/tools and was projected as a high-floor can't-miss D. Went 5OA too,

Juolevi played in the OHL in his draft year. Reinbacher is already playing on the top line of the NL and has great stats. He can still bust too, no one really is a can't miss prospect. But he is much easier to project than Juolevi.

 

[Goldenhands]

Olli Juolevi had all the skills/tools and was projected as a high-floor can't-miss D. Went 5OA too,

Juolevi had no physicality at all to his game and his tools overrated. I had Sergachev over him and it was not particulary close.

 

[Garnet76]

People here wouldn't be advocating for Reinbacher at 5 if they thought his 90th percentile is a #3 D

Or if he was LH in my opinion. I dont see the hype. I dont see a first pairing D. I see a #2-3 who won't see the PP. Good asset to have but not at 5.

 

[JT3]

So once again, in your scenario Smith doesn't hit his ceiling but Reinbacher blows past any reasonable ceiling anyone has for him and becomes the next Shea Weber. Okay!

You guys are wasting your time. Let the scouts, the professionals, assess ceiling, floor, and probability of hitting that ceiling. Then we'll see on draft day what they come up with.

Then we'll see in 7 years which scouts did the best job.

Then we can have meaningful discussions, seeing what the players actually became.

Last I checked this thread was for people to debate prospects, not 'create an aggregate ranking out of public scouting lists and pick the highest rated guy'. Clearly I view Reinbacher in a more positive light than you guys, and I am slightly lower on Smith than the typical lists. I'm not saying I'm right, its just my opinion. But because you don't agree doesn't mean it's wrong either.

I see Smith as a roughly ppg guy at his peak. I see Reinbacher as a 50pt guy at his. That's my opinion. If you wanna disagree then at least show up with some reasons why rather than yOu'rE wRoNg

 

[Naslund]

If you want to be entertained, draft Michkov or Smith
If you want to win, draft Leonard.

 

[Garnet76]

If you want to be entertained, draft Michkov or Smith
If you want to win, draft Leonard.

You need game breakers, then build around them with 2 way players in my opinion.

 

[JT3]

This is probably my favorite thread on this board every year, I really love armchair scouting, but man can it get insufferable in the last run up to the draft.

So many people you don't see all year coming in and making arguments solely based on what they see in public rankings. Saying crap like "if they pass on the top 5 I'll be mad, don't galaxy brain this pick".

Like actually imagine your scouts have done their due diligence and decided that Leonard or Dvorsky or whoever is their BPA. But "oh, darn! He's not top 5 on the scouting lists, we shouldn't overthink this, let's go with the consensus guy." Why even have a scouting staff at all?

And the funniest part is the people making this argument will attack you for not following in lockstep with the consensus, despite self admittedly not having had any viewings themselves. Jeez Louise
/endrant

 

[An0n]

Leonard is underrated if anything!

Lots of talk about taking him at the 5th pick over here… he’s not getting underrated.

 

[Kennerback]

If you want to be entertained, draft Michkov or Smith
If you want to win, draft Leonard.

If you want to win, draft a 6’3 Leonard.

 

[SOLR]

Juolevi had no physicality at all to his game and his tools overrated. I had Sergachev over him and it was not particulary close.

Juolevi had lots of epic loot at Diablo 3.

 

[Gravity]

If you want to win, draft a 6’3 Leonard.

He's 6'0 tall and not a gamebreaker.

 

[NotProkofievian]

If you want to win, draft a 6’3 Leonard.

The team that drafts Leonard will never again win another game. If only he were 3 inches taller. Alas.

 

[ReHabs]

Last I checked this thread was for people to debate prospects, not 'create an aggregate ranking out of public scouting lists and pick the highest rated guy'. Clearly I view Reinbacher in a more positive light than you guys, and I am slightly lower on Smith than the typical lists. I'm not saying I'm right, its just my opinion. But because you don't agree doesn't mean it's wrong either.

I see Smith as a roughly ppg guy at his peak. I see Reinbacher as a 50pt guy at his. That's my opinion. If you wanna disagree then at least show up with some reasons why rather than yOu'rE wRoNg

I didn't say you're wrong, but you didn't qualify why your impression of the prospect is so much better than most other scouts'. That's what I'm trying to personally understand... because some of you commentators are so knowledgeable about prospects and hobbyist scouts, not in spite of it. I'm not doubting your position, I just want to understand more.

Of course nobody needs a consensus and we are just shooting the shit but it's easy to say "I think Benson is going to be the next Marchand and Reinbacher will peak at 30pts" and then say it's just an opinion, but what does that help?

This is probably my favorite thread on this board every year, I really love armchair scouting, but man can it get insufferable in the last run up to the draft.

So many people you don't see all year coming in and making arguments solely based on what they see in public rankings. Saying crap like "if they pass on the top 5 I'll be mad, don't galaxy brain this pick".

Like actually imagine your scouts have done their due diligence and decided that Leonard or Dvorsky or whoever is their BPA. But "oh, darn! He's not top 5 on the scouting lists, we shouldn't overthink this, let's go with the consensus guy." Why even have a scouting staff at all?

And the funniest part is the people making this argument will attack you for not following in lockstep with the consensus, despite self admittedly not having had any viewings themselves. Jeez Louise
/endrant

Sorry you felt attacked. It wasn't my intention to upset you or anyone. Simply put, some of us want to understand the rubric by which amateur players are scouted and connect the dots so-to-speak to see a better, more high-resolution picture.

Your claim against respecting the scouting consensus is dead-wrong however, it's been long said that the consolidated draft ranking outperforms most (or all?) teams' personalized draft results. More data points gives a better picture. And given the Habs are one of the worst teams in the NHL at the draft table it is absolutely within our purview as fans to not want them to go off-the-board with an unusual or unexpected pick. Naturally many of us will bristle at the notion of drafting a dman in this forward-heavy 2023 Draft, and it's even more suspect that so many in this thread refer to Reinbacher as if he's already Shea Weber and cannot even bring up any single criticism or flaw. There's a gap between the tone of the discourse about Reinbacher here and elsewhere.

 

[ReHabs]

Olli Juolevi had all the skills/tools and was projected as a high-floor can't-miss D. Went 5OA too,

I think there's nothing really to say about busting. That's where the pros come in - both before and after the pick is made. If they interview a player and feel he sounds professional, if they train th him and feel he's putting in the work, if they play him and feel like he's picking up what he's meant to pick up... if he busts out, so what? It happens. You can't plan around that any more than you can plan around a player surely hitting his ceiling (impossible).

The idea is to iteratively learn which players bust and make a connection between the causes behind their lack of success -- sometimes it could be an injury that derails their career (out of anyone's control) or other times it could be something the scouts looked over because they felt his strengths in other domains would make up for it.

So asking about 'bust potential' is more about asking "hey, what are some things he does that won't translate to the NHL and might not help him?". If Fantilli is dummying bozos in his league, he won't be able to do that in the NHL. If a large-framed player is absorbing hits and powering through them, he won't be able to do that in the NHL.

My question about Reinbacher is even more simple: what are his flaws?

 

[NotProkofievian]

Lots of talk about taking him at the 5th pick over here… he’s not getting underrated.

This pick has had by far the most wide spread and even keeled debate of any of our top picks that I can remember, and still I guarantee you that whichever pick we don't make that has success will have people posting stuff like ''OMG HE WAS SO UNDERRATEED I TOLD YOU ALL.''

It's dumb. We've discussed at 6 or 7 guys for one pick, obviously we can't pick them all, and it's pretty likely that the 5 or 6 we don't pick will have some great players.