HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Goldenhands]

Juolevi pick was so bad. Never liked him. I was in my grandma's basement in New York watching that draft. When Vancouver picked juolevi over Keller and Tkachuk, and Sergachev, I died laughing

Yep that was definitely a laughable moment, not so much for the Nucks fans though.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Got bored and did another draft sim.

Made a big and unrealistic trade, but still made it to be different.

Traded: 5th,37th, 101st, 110th
For
9th, 17th, 41st, 42nd and 201st.

The downside here is no one that we all seem to want at 5th, all 5 of them were gone.

9th - Dalibor Dvorsky - 6'1 200lbs
17th - Eduard Sale - 6'1 170lbs
31st - Tom Wallinder 6'1 180lbs
41st - Daniil But 6'5 205lbs
42nd - Micheal Hrabal - 6'6 205lbs
69th - Anton Wahlberg - 6'3 185lbs
128th - Matthew Mania 6'0 185lbs
133rd - Yegor Sidorov - 6'0 185lbs
144th - Jaden Lipinski - 6'3 190lbs
165th - Mazden Leslie - 6'1 180lbs
197th - Florian Xhekaj 6'2 185lbs
201st - Rodwin Dionicio - 6'2 205lbs

Missed the obvious players that look like high-end players, but definitely drafted some players that have the hidden potential to be studs while getting players that fill in with skill in their own right, size, meanness/toughness.

Would be a rather balanced draft.

That said would rather keep 5th and hopefully get Michkov.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

That's all nice and all, but it's not very scientific outside of saying a general "goalies are more unpredictable than skaters".

There is still a correlation between draft position and performance it's just quite a bit weaker. Where players might be around 0.7, goalies are around 0.4 - you don't want to ignore it completely.

The unpredictability is all that i was trying to show. There is nothing more that can be done to make it scientific as there is not a remotely accurate model to use.

There are exceptions such as generational talent goaltenders, other than that you should usually entirely avoid drafting them in the first round. The gap between efficiency correlations between drafting scorers and goalies is absolutely enormous when around 25 - 30% of the top goaltenders are drafted in the top 50 and closer to 90 % of the top scorers are drafted in the top 50. If one position is 300% easier to project than the other the overall draft strategy should be very clear but like you alluded to, there is always consideration for outliers like generational talents which are very rare for goaltenders or if it is an extremely weak draft for skaters.

Clearly most NHL GM's and scouts agree with me as goaltenders are almost exclusively drafted outside of the first round. They are almost impossible to accurately project as they take so long to develop and most of that development is mental. The fundamentals of the position can be equally taught and applied but playing goalie is much more of a golfers mindset as it is a relatively solo mission where the goaltender doesn't have to worry about team dynamics over 200 feet of ice nearly as much as skaters do. It is the battle between the ears that separates great goalies from poor goalies and it is incredibly difficult to assess this in 18 year old boys.

The only point that I was making as it is just a poor business model to exhaust premium resources on lower percentage success rates when there are much higher percentage options available.

 

[Locks]

Appreciate the response, I won't go as far as saying I felt attacked but general frustration at the mindset on this board sometimes. You see a whole lot of "if we don't draft x or if we pass on y it would be a huge mistake/i will be really disappointed". People don't want to entertain anybody outside of what they believe to be a consensus top 5, but how often does a draft really work out like that? Not only where a consensus pre-draft group all go within that group, but then all end up being the best of the draft? Without actually diving into it I would hazard a guess at never. Reviewing consensus or consolidated rankings can be valuable in a comparison sense, you can gauge how the league or scouts as a whole view players and compare that to how you view a player yourself, but it shouldn't be used as your whole evaluation (obviously). Scouting is an in-exact science and there isn't really a right or wrong opinion on draft day. You just need to do your due diligence, make your projections and pick the guy you think will provide the biggest impact on your team, regardless of what the rankings say.

On Reinbacher: you've asked on what his weaknesses are, the honest answer is it's hard to really pinpoint a real serious weakness. A lot of the intrigue with him is he is incredibly well rounded. If I had to pick some, his puckhandling and hands are pretty average, and there is some doubt about his overall offensive upside. He plays a very 'efficient' game, he doesn't have high end vision or playmaking skills, he has a solid shot but nothing outstanding. He creates offense by moving the puck up ice well and just by making consistent, smart, plays. I won't say that he is a spot on comparison, but I think if he really hits his upside he could have a Pietrangelo kind of impact. Not an offensive stud by any means, but he will put up points through smart plays and solid puck movement. I find his game to be very easily translatable, and he's already shown he can play and produce in a high level league even at a young age, which is a big plus.

I've never faulted anyone for preferring Smith, we can all see the offensive IQ and skill that kid has, I just question how likely he is to actually hit that high end potential. He really reminds me a lot of someone like Huberdeau, supremely talented, but is he able to drive the bus on his own at the next level? Or does he require a line that can provide him with time and space? I will say though that Marty's system could be a great fit for him, especially if guys like Dach/Slaf pan out or we acquire PLD. Big bodies like those guys that can create space for Smith and finish his plays could work really well.

Reinbacher is not my first or second choice at 5, but I absolutely see where you are coming from in preferring the relative certainty of him becoming a solid all-around RD vs several question marks with regards to Smith's game translatability or the probability of him hitting his high upside. I am too somewhat concerned with Smith reaching his potential although I love his skill and creativity. And the possibility of Smith ending up a winger cannot be discounted. We have already drafted a C with a high pick who could not play the position due to his poor defensive game. Smith does remind me of Chucky somewhat except he uses his great hands to eventually open up a passing lane while Chucky did that to shoot.
I would also put Leonard in the same bucket as Reinbacher as a guy with higher certainty of reaching his potential. And I am sure the risk factor when drafting this high is something the brass considers. Trevor did not lose his job because of Mike McCarron or Louis Leblanc. He lost his job because of Chucky and KK - two top five picks that missed although for very different reasons.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Besides the Combine and the interviews, I'm assuming these teams have a pretty good idea of their lists....Apart from Marc Bergevin, I doubt too many execs are changing their lists based on the bench press scores or grip strength results.

I just pissed my pants

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

This is a very simplistic way of looking at things. It's not necessarily an either/or proposition. What if I want to win while being entertained?

I don't remember Guy Lafleur's panache being a drag on the Habs' fortunes. Or Patrick Kane's razzle dazzle getting in the way of the Blackhawks winning multiple cups.

When a player of the ilk of Michkov is available, you grab him with both hands. The opportunity does not come around very often. He is the rarest of all breeds. Ditto for Smith, if our scouting department feels he has anywhere near that potential.

Rugged scoring forwards (Leonard) and minute-munching 2-way RDs (Reinbacher) are valuable assets and do not grow on trees. But they are in no way as difficult to acquire as the game-breaking superstar. Apart from a few brief months of Kovalev, the Canadians have toiled away without one since the time when Lafleur graced the Forum ice. It's been decades and I'm sick of it.

So keep your Leonards and Reinbachers and--damn the topedos--let's reach for the brass ring.

F&ckin A, man

 

[Goldenhands]

Corey Pronman's last mock has Reinbacher to the Habs, apparently Reinbacher's stock is rising in the scouting community, there is even a possibility SJ pick him 4th OV according to him.

@KevSkillz4 will be happy to hear this, not so much if we ended up with Dvorsky instead...

NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Leo Carlsson rising after strong play at Worlds

Corey Pronman makes his second attempt at predicting how the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft will play out.

theathletic.com

 

[Vachon23]

Corey Pronman's last mock has Reinbacher to the Habs, apparently Reinbacher's stock is rising in the scouting community, there is even a possibility SJ pick him 4th OV according to him.

@KevSkillz4 will be happy to hear this, not so much if we ended up with Dvorsky instead...

NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Leo Carlsson rising after strong play at Worlds

Corey Pronman makes his second attempt at predicting how the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft will play out.

theathletic.com

I thought he was only rank out of the top 10 and he was a reach ?

 

[Seb]

Corey Pronman's last mock has Reinbacher to the Habs, apparently Reinbacher's stock is rising in the scouting community, there is even a possibility SJ pick him 4th OV according to him.

@KevSkillz4 will be happy to hear this, not so much if we ended up with Dvorsky instead...

NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Leo Carlsson rising after strong play at Worlds

Corey Pronman makes his second attempt at predicting how the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft will play out.

theathletic.com

Well that's one less argument for people claiming he'd be a reach at 5.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Corey Pronman's last mock has Reinbacher to the Habs, apparently Reinbacher's stock is rising in the scouting community, there is even a possibility SJ pick him 4th OV according to him.

@KevSkillz4 will be happy to hear this, not so much if we ended up with Dvorsky instead...

NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Leo Carlsson rising after strong play at Worlds

Corey Pronman makes his second attempt at predicting how the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft will play out.

theathletic.com

This is exactly how the I see the draft unfolding in the top 10.

 

[SlafySZN]

Hope SJ take Reinbacher then.

 

[Gravity]

Saying it again. Just. Take. Michkov.

 

[Goldenhands]

Hope SJ take Reinbacher then.

You prefer Dvorsky?

 

[WinterLion]

Corey Pronman's last mock has Reinbacher to the Habs, apparently Reinbacher's stock is rising in the scouting community, there is even a possibility SJ pick him 4th OV according to him.

@KevSkillz4 will be happy to hear this, not so much if we ended up with Dvorsky instead...

NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Leo Carlsson rising after strong play at Worlds

Corey Pronman makes his second attempt at predicting how the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft will play out.

theathletic.com

Can anyone give us plebes who don't subscribe a hint at the top 32?

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

I would like a future top 6 to look like this:

Dach - Suzuki - Caufield
Slaf - PLD - Michkov

PLD and Dach can switch if need be.

 

[Jabba11]

If the Habs passed on Michkov or he's not available at our spot, who's with me on the Zach Benson's bandwagon?

I just can't help but to think he will be the Tkachuk of this draft, in terms of the one player that will do anything to win and make his team win. Might not be the highest scoring player of his draft class, but brings intensity and is the best "gamer" of the class. I think we can't go wrong with him. Imagine him dishing the puck to Caufield, Dach and company. This kid excels in transition, our team suck at that too.

Hate me or not, I'm on the Zach Benson > Will Smith gang.

 

[oooooooooohCanada]

They had Matthews and Marner. Nailed Rielly and Nylander. But they failed every other selection. Amirov instead of Guhle or Mercer were franchise killing mistake for them. You need to pick the stars but you also need consistency.

Might be one of the dumbest things I've read on here. Sorry Amirov got brain cancer. He was developing very nicely before that diagnoses.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I would like a future top 6 to look like this:

Dach - Suzuki - Caufield
Slaf - PLD - Michkov

PLD and Dach can switch if need be.

I like it though one line is all lefty and the other all righty- hence why I would switch PLD and Dach.

 

[Hacketts]

If the Habs passed on Michkov or he's not available at our spot, who's with me on the Zach Benson's bandwagon?

I just can't help but to think he will be the Tkachuk of this draft, in terms of the one player that will do anything to win and make his team win. Might not be the highest scoring player of his draft class, but brings intensity and is the best "gamer" of the class. I think we can't go wrong with him. Imagine him dishing the puck to Caufield, Dach and company. This kid excels in transition, our team suck at that too.

Hate me or not, I'm on the Zach Benson > Will Smith gang.

 

[MON4NHLTOR4MLB]

All that offensive scoring talent at the top of the draft and we reach for a D man, that would be pathetic

 

[JT3]

All that offensive scoring talent at the top of the draft and we reach for a D man, that would be pathetic

What would be more pathetic would be identifying a BPA and passing on them because it doesn't agree with the consensus

 

[Gravity]

What would be more pathetic would be identifying a BPA and passing on them because it doesn't agree with the consensus

Agreed but it's highly likely BPA at 5 this year is a F.

 

[SOLR]

The unpredictability is all that i was trying to show. There is nothing more that can be done to make it scientific as there is not a remotely accurate model to use.

There are exceptions such as generational talent goaltenders, other than that you should usually entirely avoid drafting them in the first round. The gap between efficiency correlations between drafting scorers and goalies is absolutely enormous when around 25 - 30% of the top goaltenders are drafted in the top 50 and closer to 90 % of the top scorers are drafted in the top 50. If one position is 300% easier to project than the other the overall draft strategy should be very clear but like you alluded to, there is always consideration for outliers like generational talents which are very rare for goaltenders or if it is an extremely weak draft for skaters.

Clearly most NHL GM's and scouts agree with me as goaltenders are almost exclusively drafted outside of the first round. They are almost impossible to accurately project as they take so long to develop and most of that development is mental. The fundamentals of the position can be equally taught and applied but playing goalie is much more of a golfers mindset as it is a relatively solo mission where the goaltender doesn't have to worry about team dynamics over 200 feet of ice nearly as much as skaters do. It is the battle between the ears that separates great goalies from poor goalies and it is incredibly difficult to assess this in 18 year old boys.

The only point that I was making as it is just a poor business model to exhaust premium resources on lower percentage success rates when there are much higher percentage options available.

So give me some examples of goalies you would draft in the first round over the past few years.

Would you draft Wallsted?
Would you draft Askarov?

What's the line where you go, "yep I'm going to do it" Can you define what this line consist of?

 

[JT3]

Agreed but it's highly likely BPA at 5 this year is a F.

Yes that could very well be true, but the point is that if the result of their years of scouting work determines that Reinbacher is their BPA, they sure as hell won't be going against their own data because McKeens or Recrutes or Joe Shmo on the internet don't agree with it. And the same applies to any of Dvorsky, Benson, Leonard as well. NHL front offices don't give a shit what public rankings look like.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

Funny all this Tkachuk talk, Sutter thought Toffoli was more of a gamer than Tkachuk not that long ago and now every page here has an argument about who could be the Tkachuk in this draft class when it took him 7 years to reach this level.