HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Gravity]

If this draft is like 2015, I hope we're not the ones taking Hanifin (aka Reinbacher)

 

[JT3]

If this draft is like 2015, I hope we're not the ones taking Hanifin (aka Reinbacher)

If this draft is like 2014 I hope we're not the ones taking Dal Colle (aka Smith)
Or if it's like 2019 I hope we're not taking Turcotte (Smith)
Or if it's like 2018 I hope we're not the ones taking Hayton (Smith)

We don't know who will be the best player 5 years from now, we just gotta hope HuGo is able to identify who it might be. Could be any of a handful of guys.

(Disclaimer: I don't dislike Smith just using him as the example as he's a widely considered pick on this board)

 

[Gravity]

If this draft is like 2014 I hope we're not the ones taking Dal Colle (aka Smith)
Or if it's like 2019 I hope we're not taking Turcotte (Smith)
Or if it's like 2018 I hope we're not the ones taking Hayton (Smith)

We don't know who will be the best player 5 years from now, we just gotta hope HuGo is able to identify who it might be. Could be any of a handful of guys.

(Disclaimer: I don't dislike Smith just using him as the example as he's a widely considered pick on this board)

Yeah but Smith has 0 resemblance to any of those players. Reinbacher is better defensively than Hanifin as a prospect but otherwise the skillset is similar.

 

[JT3]

Yeah but Smith has 0 resemblance to any of those players. Reinbacher is better defensively than Hanifin as a prospect but otherwise the skillset is similar.

That doesn't mean they will turn out the same or develop the same. In fact player comparisons in general are pretty stupid and largely useless. It's fine to prefer a Forward or not care for Reinbacher but at least pinpoint specific things about his game that you think will prevent him from translating into a top defenseman.

And the thing is, regardless of what we all think about any player, the front office might just think the opposite. And we won't know if they are right or wrong for years down the road, so it's not really worth getting fired up about tbh. I have my preferences but I can accept at this point that there is a number of different directions they could go with this pick depending on who they think will be best and who best fits into their long term plan to build a team. And none of us are privy to any of that information

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Yeah but Smith has 0 resemblance to any of those players. Reinbacher is better defensively than Hanifin as a prospect but otherwise the skillset is similar.

What would be the draft prospect comparables for him, Kent Johnson, RNH, Bobby Ryan, etc?

 

[NekkiChiconey]

If the Habs passed on Michkov or he's not available at our spot, who's with me on the Zach Benson's bandwagon?

I just can't help but to think he will be the Tkachuk of this draft, in terms of the one player that will do anything to win and make his team win. Might not be the highest scoring player of his draft class, but brings intensity and is the best "gamer" of the class. I think we can't go wrong with him. Imagine him dishing the puck to Caufield, Dach and company. This kid excels in transition, our team suck at that too.

Hate me or not, I'm on the Zach Benson > Will Smith gang.

One thing that might be overlooked with Benson is how good he is at zone entries. Basically, he's an automatic, controlled zone entry machine on the power play. We can surely count on one hand the habs who have been able to carry the puck in the zone reliably and consistently in the last 10 years. Now add Hutson as well...

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

If the Habs passed on Michkov or he's not available at our spot, who's with me on the Zach Benson's bandwagon?

I just can't help but to think he will be the Tkachuk of this draft, in terms of the one player that will do anything to win and make his team win. Might not be the highest scoring player of his draft class, but brings intensity and is the best "gamer" of the class. I think we can't go wrong with him. Imagine him dishing the puck to Caufield, Dach and company. This kid excels in transition, our team suck at that too.

Hate me or not, I'm on the Zach Benson > Will Smith gang.

Benson Gang representing men and women of culture.

 

[G0bias]

If this draft is like 2014 I hope we're not the ones taking Dal Colle (aka Smith)
Or if it's like 2019 I hope we're not taking Turcotte (Smith)
Or if it's like 2018 I hope we're not the ones taking Hayton (Smith)

We don't know who will be the best player 5 years from now, we just gotta hope HuGo is able to identify who it might be. Could be any of a handful of guys.

(Disclaimer: I don't dislike Smith just using him as the example as he's a widely considered pick on this board)

More likely than not someone else picked later either scores more or is considered a better player. Just as long as we hit with whomever we take.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I actually managed a somewhat realistic draft sim

Just finished drafting using Draft Prospects Hockey’s NHL Draft Sim.
Montreal Canadiens
(5) Will Smith, C
(31) Quentin Musty, LW
(37) Michael Hrabal, G
(69) Noah Dower Nilsson, LW
(101) Tanner Ludtke, C
(110) Felix Unger Sorum, RW
(128) Juraj Pekarcik, RW
(133) Matthew Mania, RD
(144) Jaden Lipinski, C
(165) Beckett Hendrickson, LW
(197) Adam Dybal

 

[Mrb1p]

If the Habs passed on Michkov or he's not available at our spot, who's with me on the Zach Benson's bandwagon?

I just can't help but to think he will be the Tkachuk of this draft, in terms of the one player that will do anything to win and make his team win. Might not be the highest scoring player of his draft class, but brings intensity and is the best "gamer" of the class. I think we can't go wrong with him. Imagine him dishing the puck to Caufield, Dach and company. This kid excels in transition, our team suck at that too.

Hate me or not, I'm on the Zach Benson > Will Smith gang.

Im having a hot Benson summer personally.

 

[26Mats]

If the Habs passed on Michkov or he's not available at our spot, who's with me on the Zach Benson's bandwagon?

I just can't help but to think he will be the Tkachuk of this draft, in terms of the one player that will do anything to win and make his team win. Might not be the highest scoring player of his draft class, but brings intensity and is the best "gamer" of the class. I think we can't go wrong with him. Imagine him dishing the puck to Caufield, Dach and company. This kid excels in transition, our team suck at that too.

Hate me or not, I'm on the Zach Benson > Will Smith gang.

Benson was ahead of Will Smith all year on most lists, until the U20's.

But a big part of the Tkachuk brothers' impact is their size. Just like their Dad. So I don't think Benson can have that kind of impact on a game.

Maybe he could be a Theo Fleury, or playmaking version of prime Gallagher. But prime Gallagher was unique in how aggressively he went to the net. That inspired his teammates and led to scoring chances. I've heard Benson is higher skilled than Gallagher and an absolute puck hound. Maybe being a puck hound will inspire his teammates and lead to scoring chances?

But he's too small to play with Caufield 5 on 5.

 

[Pazucha]

 

[Hins77]

You are wrong and I have proved as much in the past with an extensive post detailing as much. I can't be bothered to look for it but if you did any research at all you wouldn't make such an unfounded and untrue claim.

I said 1st round and early 2nd round btw.

Here are the top 25 GAA among goalies and their draft position with at least 20 games from this season.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]

Name​

[/TD]

[TD]

GP​

[/TD]

[TD]

GAA​

[/TD]

[TD]

Drafted​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ullmark[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]1.89[/TD]
[TD]163rd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gustavsson[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]2.10[/TD]
[TD]55th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Raanta[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]2.23[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Swayman[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]2.27[/TD]
[TD]111th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Samsonov[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]2.33[/TD]
[TD]22nd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sorokin[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]2.34[/TD]
[TD]78th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oettinger[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]2.37[/TD]
[TD]26th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kochetkov[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]2.44[/TD]
[TD]36th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hill[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]2.45[/TD]
[TD]76th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vanecek[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]2.45[/TD]
[TD]39th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andersen[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]2.48[/TD]
[TD]87th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Shesterkin[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]2.48[/TD]
[TD]118th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hellebuyck[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]2.49[/TD]
[TD]130th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Georgiev[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]2.53[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Copley[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]2.64[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vasilevskiy[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]2.65[/TD]
[TD]19th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thompson[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]2.65[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Saros[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]2.69[/TD]
[TD]99th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Varlamov[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]2.70[/TD]
[TD]23rd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Halak[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]2.72[/TD]
[TD]271st[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Wedgewood[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]2.72[/TD]
[TD]84th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Skinner[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]2.75[/TD]
[TD]78th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grubauer[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]2.85[/TD]
[TD]112th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fleury[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]2.85[/TD]
[TD]1st...........[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kuemper[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]2.87[/TD]
[TD]160th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

18 of the top 25 GAA among goalies with at least 20 games belonged to goalies drafted no earlier than late 2nd round (55th).

And just to top it off here are likely the two top Goalie prospects in the NHL and their draft position

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Wolf[/TD]
[TD]214th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Devin Levi[/TD]
[TD]212th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

The Stanley Cup Finals boast an Undrafted G (Bobrovsky who has won two Vezina trophies) and Hill (3rd rd 76th) going head to head with Bobrovsky the clear cut leader for the Conn Smythe coming into the series.

Here are the last 15 Vezina winners

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Shesterkin[/TD]
[TD]118th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fleury[/TD]
[TD]1st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hellebuyck[/TD]
[TD]130th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vasilevskiy[/TD]
[TD]19th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rinne[/TD]
[TD]258th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobrovsky[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Holtby[/TD]
[TD]93rd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Price[/TD]
[TD]5th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rask[/TD]
[TD]21st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobrovsky[/TD]
[TD]Undrafted[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lundqvist[/TD]
[TD]205th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thomas[/TD]
[TD]217th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miller[/TD]
[TD]138th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lundqvist[/TD]
[TD]205th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brodeur[/TD]
[TD]20th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

10 of the last 15 Vezina awards have been given to goalies taken in the 4th round or later with 6 of them either undrafted or later than the 200th pick. I am also going to go out on a limb here and add Ullmark to this list as the 2022/23 winner and he was a 6th round pick (163rd).

To provide some further context only 2 of this years top 25 scorers were drafted later than the 2nd round Point (3rd round 79th) and Panarin (undrafted) it should be pretty obvious as to which road is the safer bet by multiple orders of magnitude. You draft the best skaters early and take shots late in the draft for goaltenders.

I could go into much further depth like I have in the past but I can't be bothered to do that or to try and find my posts as this is a non discussion. Taking goalies early is a terrible idea and there is nothing resembling a rational argument to counter this conclusion.

You are talking like if it was an easy thing to pick a first goalie on later round.
Like if every time you take a goalie on a
Later round, he became really good.
Lets see.
From 2013 to 2019
Rangers Picked : Skapski, Shesterkin, Halverson, Huska, Wall, Lindbom.
Ottawa took : Hogberg, Daccord, Hollett, Mandolese, Sogaard.
Minnesota took : Belanger, kakkonen, Stezka, lindberg, H. jones,
LAK took : Bartosak, Dillon, Villalta, Ingham, Hrenak, Parik.


This is an easy for you to cherry pick every sucessful goalie taken in later round and say : « Hey, lets pick a goalie, on late round, we gonna find another Jusse saros ». The reality is, you gonna pick at least 5 busts before to find a good one. Montreal don’t have really good Goalie on the Pipeline. They can’t sit on the : « lets pick a goalie on later round and we will find something good »

With your logic, Montreal shouldnt trade their 4th pick anymore cause with a 4th pick, you can select guys like Macceli, Batherson, kurashev

 

[SOLR]

Benson was ahead of Will Smith all year on most lists, until the U20's.

But a big part of the Tkachuk brothers' impact is their size. Just like their Dad. So I don't think Benson can have that kind of impact on a game.

Maybe he could be a Theo Fleury, or playmaking version of prime Gallagher. But prime Gallagher was unique in how aggressively he went to the net. That inspired his teammates and led to scoring chances. I've heard Benson is higher skilled than Gallagher and an absolute puck hound. Maybe being a puck hound will inspire his teammates and lead to scoring chances?

But he's too small to play with Caufield 5 on 5.

We need some playmaking outside the first line. The fact that we have zero of that is one of the macro reasons why we are struggling.

 

[26Mats]

We need some playmaking outside the first line. The fact that we have zero of that is one of the macro reasons why we are struggling.

Dach is a playmaker. The long term vision is for him to be a center.

To your point, the tank got derailed when he emerged as a good 2c. Definitely need a good 2c.

I'm not opposed to Benson though. If management think he's the best player available, regardless of need, I say take him.

 

[26Mats]

If this draft is like 2015, I hope we're not the ones taking Hanifin (aka Reinbacher)

Hanafin is Hanafin. Reinbacher is Reinbacher.

 

[SOLR]

Dach is a playmaker. The long term vision is for him to be a center.

To your point, the tank got derailed when he emerged as a good 2c. Definitely need a good 2c.

I'm not opposed to Benson though. If management think he's the best player available, regardless of need, I say take him.

Issue is, will Dach be our first RW or a 2c? We need more than 2 good playmakers.

 

[FrankMTL]

View attachment 715076

Kid has a great smile.

I can already see multiple car dealerships after his retirement.

Come on down to Conor Bedard Chevrolet!

 

[NotProkofievian]

View attachment 715076

Oh is that all? Bust.

 

[26Mats]

Issue is, will Dach be our first RW or a 2c? We need more than 2 good playmakers.

Dach really emerged in the second half of the season as a center. I think that's where he'll play, though it's great he can play wing if we get a better C at some point, like say Will Smith or PLD outplay him long term.

I think two really good playmakers like Dach and Suzuki is enough for the top 6, but I'm fine with adding more. It's nice that Suzuki can make plays but also finish.

But again, I'm all for Benson if he's BPA regardless of need, even though he's small. Hard for me to know what he'd look like at the NHL level, since I can think of a small gritty undersized playmaker. So the best I can think of is a playmaking version of Gallagher/Theo Fleury who doesn't go to the net like Gallagjer. Maybe Martin St. Louis and Braden Point with less scoring touch are comparables. I guess since MSL himself is so unique, it shows Benson can create his own mold.

 

[Vachon23]

So give me some examples of goalies you would draft in the first round over the past few years.

Would you draft Wallsted?
Would you draft Askarov?

What's the line where you go, "yep I'm going to do it" Can you define what this line consist of?

I would have draft those guys and I would trade our 1st pick FLA + ? For those guys

 

[26Mats]

Funny all this Tkachuk talk, Sutter thought Toffoli was more of a gamer than Tkachuk not that long ago and now every page here has an argument about who could be the Tkachuk in this draft class when it took him 7 years to reach this level.

It's normal to take 7 years to reach this level.

What's not normal were Sutter's idiotic takes throughout the year. Hence why he's unemployed.

 

[habsterr]

Look at my first three selections.

Montreal Canadiens
(5) Will Smith, C 6' 172
(31) Matthew Wood, RW 6'3 190
(37) Daniil But, LW 6'5 203
(69) Anton Wahlberg, C/LW 6'3 185
(101) Jordan Tourigny, RD 5'11 168
(110) Tomas Suchanek, G 6'2 181
(128) Samuel Barcik, RD 6'2 192
(133) Juraj Pekarcik, RW 6'2 183
(144) Luke Mittelstadt, LD 5'11 174
(165) Brandon Svoboda, C 6'2 190
(197) Lucas Moore, RD 5'10 180

 

[Jaynki]

Appreciate the response, I won't go as far as saying I felt attacked but general frustration at the mindset on this board sometimes. You see a whole lot of "if we don't draft x or if we pass on y it would be a huge mistake/i will be really disappointed". People don't want to entertain anybody outside of what they believe to be a consensus top 5, but how often does a draft really work out like that? Not only where a consensus pre-draft group all go within that group, but then all end up being the best of the draft? Without actually diving into it I would hazard a guess at never. Reviewing consensus or consolidated rankings can be valuable in a comparison sense, you can gauge how the league or scouts as a whole view players and compare that to how you view a player yourself, but it shouldn't be used as your whole evaluation (obviously). Scouting is an in-exact science and there isn't really a right or wrong opinion on draft day. You just need to do your due diligence, make your projections and pick the guy you think will provide the biggest impact on your team, regardless of what the rankings say.

On Reinbacher: you've asked on what his weaknesses are, the honest answer is it's hard to really pinpoint a real serious weakness. A lot of the intrigue with him is he is incredibly well rounded. If I had to pick some, his puckhandling and hands are pretty average, and there is some doubt about his overall offensive upside. He plays a very 'efficient' game, he doesn't have high end vision or playmaking skills, he has a solid shot but nothing outstanding. He creates offense by moving the puck up ice well and just by making consistent, smart, plays. I won't say that he is a spot on comparison, but I think if he really hits his upside he could have a Pietrangelo kind of impact. Not an offensive stud by any means, but he will put up points through smart plays and solid puck movement. I find his game to be very easily translatable, and he's already shown he can play and produce in a high level league even at a young age, which is a big plus.

I've never faulted anyone for preferring Smith, we can all see the offensive IQ and skill that kid has, I just question how likely he is to actually hit that high end potential. He really reminds me a lot of someone like Huberdeau, supremely talented, but is he able to drive the bus on his own at the next level? Or does he require a line that can provide him with time and space? I will say though that Marty's system could be a great fit for him, especially if guys like Dach/Slaf pan out or we acquire PLD. Big bodies like those guys that can create space for Smith and finish his plays could work really well.

Quality post. Agree on Reinbacher.

 

[Gustave]

It's normal to take 7 years to reach this level.

What's not normal were Sutter's idiotic takes throughout the year. Hence why he's unemployed.

He almost Instakilled Pelletier’s whole confidence and relationship with the club in a day.

Probably a record. Here, we are used to killing our prospects but we have the decency to do it over a couple of years.

Look at my first three selections.

Montreal Canadiens
(5) Will Smith, C 6' 172
(31) Matthew Wood, RW 6'3 190
(37) Daniil But, LW 6'5 203
(69) Anton Wahlberg, C/LW 6'3 185
(101) Jordan Tourigny, RD 5'11 168
(110) Tomas Suchanek, G 6'2 181
(128) Samuel Barcik, RD 6'2 192
(133) Juraj Pekarcik, RW 6'2 183
(144) Luke Mittelstadt, LD 5'11 174
(165) Brandon Svoboda, C 6'2 190
(197) Lucas Moore, RD 5'10 180

WTF is up with #31? Is this a Sebastian Aho situation where there are TWO available in a draft???