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HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

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Estimated_Prophet said:
Ciernik is one of the oldest kids in the draft and Dvorsky is among the youngest and it is not like Ciernik tore it up with 12 points in 25 games. Then you have to consider that they played under different coaches, systems and linemates. Dvorsky was centering a line and Ciernik was a winger where it is easier to create offense and be carried by your linemates.

Anyways......nobody is debating which of these two are better and neither player put up numbers in the Allsvenskan league.

I think the Dvorsky aversion from board members is clearly rooted in comparing his stats in a men's league vs other prospects dunking on teenagers even though when put on a more equal footing Dvorsky has annihilated most of the field while not having much support and having to carry his line/team. The scepticism from some is equally as ridiculous as Barlow's mustache somehow translating to him being a nearly finished product. Dvorsky is also built perfectly for the North American game and I believe that this will play out during his career.

The guy has been a top 5 prospect for two years leading up to this draft and just smashed the U18's again. He, imo will make team's look foolish for passing on him but I suspect that he will go very early. Not that what I suspect is what anyone else should expect lol
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I think I just have a problem with the overall thought flow. It seems like the argument is that because Dvorsky has all these good things going for him, the fact that he had anemic offense even taking into account league quality is not a problem at all. Similarly, because Ciernik has all these negative traits as our friend @Egresch has pointed out at least 5 times already (below), his points don't mean shit.

I think that's the wrong way to go about it. I think it makes more sense to take the points for what they have historically been worth (accounting for league quality), and realize that the player, with all their faults and strengths, was able to accomplish that much.

IMO that should tell you if you are likely to be over or underestimating a player's offensive potential based on other factors. The fact that Ciernik is not in consideration for the late first given his production says to me that some people are overestimating their own ability to call a bust.

Egresch said:
Ciernik is a player who plays on periphery and brings very little to the game unless he brings points. Solid top 6 player in Europe, but I do not see a lot of NHL potential. Dvorsky brings so much more, if he was so opportunistic as Ciernik he would get much more points with his great shot.
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The better arguments against Reinbacher are more like ;
we have the opportunity to grab a premium scoring forward and those forwards are only found at the very top of drafts - which is not even a guarantee every year.

Instead of he's 20th on some lists or he's not Makar-like ..
 
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Gustave said:
What does it cost to move from freaking 31st/32nd to 8th/10th? My angle is Matthew Wood. I would be willing to give up next year's and Calgary's first. Timeline is important and I feel it's better to get the prospects now instead of dispersing them through the years... I'm not even sure a team actually thinks of moving back this season and not sure if my proposition moves the needle...
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A lot.

Best bet is to talk to Calgary, Pittsburgh, or the best bet, Vancouver and take bad contracts off their hands for their 1st.
 
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G0bias said:
The better arguments against Reinbacher are more like ;
we have the opportunity to grab a premium scoring forward and those forwards are only found at the very top of drafts - which is not even a guarantee every year.

Instead of he's 20th on some lists or he's not Makar-like ..
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Yeah like Seider, Jiricek and Heiskanen where not high on every list before being draft.

Finding a #1 Dmen is way tougher then finding a 1st line winger, because each year good winger are available but #1 Dmen are never available
 
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G0bias said:
The better arguments against Reinbacher are more like ;
we have the opportunity to grab a premium scoring forward and those forwards are only found at the very top of drafts - which is not even a guarantee every year.

Instead of he's 20th on some lists or he's not Makar-like ..
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Reinbacher looks to me like a reliable right handed second pairing D. Not spectacular, doesn’t have any outstanding skills, but solid. NHL teams love and need a player like that. My question is: Why at 5OA?
 
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Kennerback said:
Reinbacher looks to me like a reliable right handed second pairing D. Not spectacular, doesn’t have any outstanding skills, but solid. NHL teams love and need a player like that. My question is: Why at 5OA?
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Because that's not how people who place him there project him.

Getting an Alex Pietrangelo type of Dmen at 5 is extremely valuable for some
 
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Mrb1p said:
My main man. Absolutely love every second of what you just wrote.

Aside the Gs, there no spot for Gs in my 1st round
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I mean, I've been doing a couple of simulations and I always end up trading back from 37 to 45-ish and pick who's left between Bjarnasson and Hrabal. I would never pick a goalie in the 1st either, but it gets interesting in the mid-2nd considering our pool.

I feel like we have to go with at least one F and one D within these first 3 picks, the 3rd pick I don't care as much.

As for the size comment, we don't need another Farrell/Mesar/Kidney/Roy. One or two of them will make it, I'm interested in playing the odds and finding middle-6 forwards with size. The only exceptions I'd make are Heidt or Cristall if we pick Reinbacher at 5.
 
Vachon23 said:
Because that's not how people who place him there project him.

Getting an Alex Pietrangelo type of Dmen at 5 is extremely valuable for some
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I'm not sure he's Pietrangelo though imo. Less physical and less structured, but more inclined to jump in the play.

In terms of play style, I definitely see similarities with Heiskanen (who's my favorite player) in terms of getting up and down the ice extremely quickly, supporting offense and slowing the play down on retrievals. Also, like Heiskanen, he's not flashy offensively (in opposition to Dahlin, Hughes, Makar...) but very efficient. Now, Heiskanen's a top-5 skater among defensemen in the league and his game revolves around that quality, so I'm not sure Reinbacher can ever reach that level.

However, if you believe he can realistically reach that then damn, he has to be ranked at the top of that 5-to-9 group, and should be the top option with Michkov gone.
 
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NotProkofievian said:
I think I just have a problem with the overall thought flow. It seems like the argument is that because Dvorsky has all these good things going for him, the fact that he had anemic offense even taking into account league quality is not a problem at all. Similarly, because Ciernik has all these negative traits as our friend @Egresch has pointed out at least 5 times already (below), his points don't mean shit.

I think that's the wrong way to go about it. I think it makes more sense to take the points for what they have historically been worth (accounting for league quality), and realize that the player, with all their faults and strengths, was able to accomplish that much.

IMO that should tell you if you are likely to be over or underestimating a player's offensive potential based on other factors. The fact that Ciernik is not in consideration for the late first given his production says to me that some people are overestimating their own ability to call a bust.
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Why are people so obsessed with points? Out of top50 scoring leader there are 3 in Stanley Cup finals- Tkachuk, Barkov, Verheaghe. Nobody from Vegas.
Look for Byron Bader on Twitter. He is running such model.
Btw, Dvorsky does not have anemic offense. Look for his whole career, not just on line on eliteprospects profile.
 
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Egresch said:
Why are people so obsessed with points? Out of top50 scoring leader there are 3 in Stanley Cup finals- Tkachuk, Barkov, Verheaghe. Nobody from Vegas.
Look for Byron Bader on Twitter. He is running such model.
Btw, Dvorsky does not have anemic offense. Look for his whole career, not just on line on eliteprospects profile.
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Not obsessed with points, just arguing that they should be considered, and that there's a right and wrong way to do that.
 
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Egresch said:
Why are people so obsessed with points? Out of top50 scoring leader there are 3 in Stanley Cup finals- Tkachuk, Barkov, Verheaghe. Nobody from Vegas.
Look for Byron Bader on Twitter. He is running such model.
Btw, Dvorsky does not have anemic offense. Look for his whole career, not just on line on eliteprospects profile.
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Eichel and Stone would both be in the top 50, they just were injured. 5 top 50 players is 10%, we should assume that the league is normally distributed and that there is 1.5 top 50 player (points) per team. This finals is at exactly that not accounting for injuries, and is at 2.5 if we do.

Scoring >
 
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G0bias said:
The better arguments against Reinbacher are more like ;
we have the opportunity to grab a premium scoring forward and those forwards are only found at the very top of drafts - which is not even a guarantee every year.

Instead of he's 20th on some lists or he's not Makar-like ..
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No scout has compared him to Makar. The best comparison I've seen for him is Parayko
 
MasterMatt25 said:
No scout has compared him to Makar. The best comparison I've seen for him is Parayko
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I was talking of people here mentioning lists and saying he's not uber skilled ala Makar/Hughes.

As for the comparison I don't see it, Reinbacher's a force in transition, something which Parayko's game never really revolved around. Said it before but i see alot more Noah Dobson.
 
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G0bias said:
I was talking of people here mentioning lists and saying he's not uber skilled ala Makar/Hughes.

As for the comparison I don't see it, Reinbacher's a force in transition, something which Parayko's game never really revolved around. Said it before but i see alot more Noah Dobson.
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Same. Dobson who is just better at the same stage of development. People also complained that Dobson wasn't dYnAmIc too, but they went about their offence the same way.
 
DramaticGloveSave said:
My comp has always been that Reinbacher is a RH Guhle.
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Except Guhle never had the same offensive upside. He still doesn’t. Both he and Reinbacher were involved in 18-19% of their teams goals, but one did it in a tough men’s league and the other in the WHL. They have similar physical tools, but Reinbacher has the better shot and can get it through more consistently. Guhle’s production comes from pinching up in the play. There’s very little natural creativity.
 
le_sean said:
Except Guhle never had the same offensive upside. He still doesn’t. Both he and Reinbacher were involved in 18-19% of their teams goals, but one did it in a tough men’s league and the other in the WHL. They have similar physical tools, but Reinbacher has the better shot and can get it through a lot better.
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Considering they have similar physical tools, as you yourself say, I’d say the upside is similar as well. Just because one got luckier production doesn’t offset that.
 
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