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Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft - Part 2 (Who Do You Want To Draft At #2)

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Who Do You Want To Draft At #2

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Hamilton Bulldogs

Hamilton Bulldogs

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Ducks said:
Pronman released a couple of articles on draft eligible player upside and comparables over at The Athletic. Here are the Carlsson and Fantilli projections:

Comps:

Adam Fantilli, C, Michigan: Jonathan Toews​

When thinking about Fantilli’s comp, I started with players I thought were very well-rounded. Toews first came to mind. At his peak, he was a high-end skill-and-motor type of center despite not posting monster offensive totals. I’ve also heard the Nathan MacKinnon comp from some scouts. MacKinnon is one of the best skaters I’ve ever seen, but I don’t have Fantilli’s feet quite at that level.

Leo Carlsson, C, Orebro: Tomas Hertl​

All season I felt Carlsson was a likely NHL winger so I had his comp as Mikko Rantanen. I chose Rantanen due to a similar body type and because both have high-end skill and vision with just OK footspeed. It helps I can draw a line from how Rantanen looked in Finland as a draft eligible to how Carlsson looked in the SHL. Rantanen is a superstar though, so I felt that may be overshooting it. Colleague Max Bultman suggested Matt Boldy for Carlsson. I think that may be closer, although I think Carlsson has a slightly more interior game than Boldy. My preference was not to use very young players as the comps, although that wasn’t always possible if I couldn’t come up with anybody. These examples are wings, but as the season went on into the world championships, I felt convinced Carlsson could be an NHL center. A highly-skilled NHL center with size and footspeed issues could be Pierre-Luc Dubois, but I felt Hertl was the better fit.

Ceiling/Upside:

1. Matvei Michkov, RW, SKA-Russia​

All right I know I have to explain this one as you all sharpen your pitchforks. Michkov may be the best draft eligible I’ve ever seen from inside the offensive blue line, or at least in the mix. His skill plus offensive sense combination is incredible. He sees the game at a different level and is a scoring-chance machine once he gets the puck inside the opponent’s zone. The lack of speed and size are notable hindrances in his pro projection — both are worse than Connor Bedard’s and he doesn’t have Bedard’s motor — but he’s a unique player and has the potential to put up massive amounts of offense as a pro if he hits, which isn’t a sure thing.

2. Connor Bedard, C, Regina-WHL​

Narrowly trailing Michkov is the presumptive No. 1 pick in Bedard. Bedard is projected to become a top-scoring NHL forward. He has game-breaking skill and goal-scoring ability, and could potentially be a regular for 35 to 40 goals in the NHL. There is true superstar upside in his game with fewer risk variables in his skill set than someone like Michkov, due to his superior speed and compete.

3. Adam Fantilli, C, Michigan-Big Ten​

You could argue any of the top three ranked players here for best upside in the draft and I would think it’s reasonable. Fantilli, like Bedard and Michkov, has incredible skill. He may be a notch or two below both in terms of pure offensive abilities, but he’s much bigger and stronger than either and faster than Michkov. His physical toolkit is the most prototypical of the three prospects of an NHL star.

4. Leo Carlsson, C, Orebro-SHL​

When a player is a 6-foot-3 forward with game-breaking skill and offensive instincts, it’s easy to envision a path for them to become a star. Carlsson made so many unique plays with the puck this season in one of the best leagues in the world. He’s so talented, and while his skating could use some work, he has the potential to put up big scoring numbers for a long time.
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I'd go michkov if the ducks have zero plans on being a playoff team in the next 3 years / fantilli goes back ti Michigan.

If you're going to wait to be good might as well have a highly touted prospect like michkov in your back pocket. If you want to compete sooner rather than later than I say fantilli is the guy
 
Gliff

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Hamilton Bulldogs said:
I'd go michkov if the ducks have zero plans on being a playoff team in the next 3 years / fantilli goes back ti Michigan.

If you're going to wait to be good might as well have a highly touted prospect like michkov in your back pocket. If you want to compete sooner rather than later than I say fantilli is the guy
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You don’t draft a player for the next 3 years. You draft them for who they will be in their d+5. His contract has almost no effect on my opinion of him.
 
Deuce22

Deuce22

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Hamilton Bulldogs said:
I'd go michkov if the ducks have zero plans on being a playoff team in the next 3 years / fantilli goes back ti Michigan.

If you're going to wait to be good might as well have a highly touted prospect like michkov in your back pocket. If you want to compete sooner rather than later than I say fantilli is the guy
Click to expand...
If a guy wins the Hobey Baker and wants to go back and play college hockey, that’s a red flag for me. He doesn’t seem like the type to shrink from a challenge, though. Whoever has the patience to draft Michkov won’t be sorry.
 
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Ducks DVM

Ducks DVM

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Deuce22 said:
If a guy wins the Hobey Baker and wants to go back and play college hockey, that’s a red flag for me. He doesn’t seem like the type to shrink from a challenge, though. Whoever has the patience to draft Michkov won’t be sorry.
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Why? Maybe he wants to enjoy college life, maybe he sees a need to get bigger which is substantially easier in college, maybe he wants to be good enough where he won’t be sent to the AHL and make 10% or less of what his NHL salary would be. Maybe he looked at just how unsuccessful 18 year olds have been in the NHL and how Berniers and Power benefited from the extra year at the same school. Maybe he wants to wait on Verbeek’s off-season moves to see how much of a shut show it is in Anaheim and not have his year stunted by having no proven goalie and an AHL defense.

This is his career. I have nothing but respect for him evaluating what’s best for it. This is also why tanking sucks - it virtually never shows benefits for 2-3 years.
 
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Ducks

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Deuce22 said:
If a guy wins the Hobey Baker and wants to go back and play college hockey, that’s a red flag for me. He doesn’t seem like the type to shrink from a challenge, though. Whoever has the patience to draft Michkov won’t be sorry.
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I agree. The fact that he accepted a late invite to the WC as the 13th forward tells me that he wants bigger challenges and doesn't mind earning his way.
 
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Deuce22

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Ducks DVM said:
Why? Maybe he wants to enjoy college life, maybe he sees a need to get bigger which is substantially easier in college, maybe he wants to be good enough where he won’t be sent to the AHL and make 10% or less of what his NHL salary would be. Maybe he looked at just how unsuccessful 18 year olds have been in the NHL and how Berniers and Power benefited from the extra year at the same school. Maybe he wants to wait on Verbeek’s off-season moves to see how much of a shut show it is in Anaheim and not have his year stunted by having no proven goalie and an AHL defense.

This is his career. I have nothing but respect for him evaluating what’s best for it. This is also why tanking sucks - it virtually never shows benefits for 2-3 years.
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That's fine, he can chart his own path. I just wouldn't draft him if that was the case.
 
Hockey Duckie

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DavidBL said:
Isn't the idea about staying in college is to play with his brother?
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Staying with his brother is one factor for staying an extra year. The other is the Michigan development program has been great for recent first round draft picks to stay two seasons.

  • 2021 Draft
    • 1. D Powers (2020-22)
    • 2. C Beniers (2020-22)
    • 4. D L. Hughes (2021-23)
    • 5. LW K. Johnson (2020-22)

  • 2022 Draft
    • 14. C McGroarty (2022-24 ... committed to return this season)


2022-23 NHL rookie scoring rank

1. C Beniers: 80 games, 24g + 33a = 57 pts, +14 rating, and 17:06 ATOI
3. C McTavish: 80 games, 17g + 26a = 43 pts, -19 rating, and 15:22 ATOI
5. LW Johnson: 79 games, 16g + 24a = 40 pts, -19 rating, and 14:31 ATOI
9. D Power: 79 games, 4g + 31a = 35 pts, +19 rating, and 23:48 ATOI

McTavish was fading around game 50, but the Michigan prospects who stayed an extra year didn't fade. Beniers was Seattle's 1C and just kept going.

One of the best reasons for staying a second season in the NCAA is body development to better handle the rigors of an 82-game, NHL schedule. The CHL, AHL, and NHL all play erratic schedules and play twice as many or more games. Rest is a significant part of body development and growth that you can get on a set schedule like the NCAA. The physical game is going to be a staple of Fantilli's game and he's nowhere near close to his optimal mass and strength as an 18-year old.

====

We're in the middle of a rebuild with new coaches at the NHL and AHL levels, both are rookie head coaches in their respective situations. Anaheim finished with the worst record in the NHL last year. Fantilli isn't close to a finished product and probably won't be until his D+5 season, based on what Getzlaf has cited about when stars become superstars in a podcast. Why the impatience of bringing in Fantilli or Carlsson next season? Verbeek has stated he wants overripen prospects so that they aren't toggling between the NHL and AHL. Overripen prospects might develop better than pushing prospects up early, which Anaheim does have recent record of doing.
 

pbgoalie

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Given the hiring of Cronin

It will be interesting to see how the ducks want to handle the development of these prospect. Hands on? Sheared game plan with college/juniors.

I’m excited because I dont feel like our development has matched our drafting accolades. We have improved at this, but watching the eagles when I was there, I’m hoping we can see some jumps from guys like
Comtois/Tracey etc
 
Deuce22

Deuce22

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Ducks DVM said:
I’m honestly curious why not, not trying to start an argument.
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I'd want him working with the Ducks development guys and coaches, not trying to win games for a college coach. Drafting a guy that high, I'd want control of his career and path to the Ducks. Learning the systems, getting to know the players and coaches. Being part of the setting up of a new culture. I would question someone who was the best player at a level, then wanted to return to that same level that he's already dominated. I want someone who's hungry to get better and getting better in Fantilli's case means playing against better. He won't get that at Michigan.
 
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GermanRocket7

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*Especially* with the hiring of Cronin, I have zero idea why anyone would advocate drafting Michkov. Guy's about as soft as they get and has absolutely no use for the two zones that are NOT the offensive zone. He may be a magician with the puck and he may be a human highlight reel past the blue line, but he is a completely disinterested and useless entity when the puck is NOT on his stick (or a teammate's) and will be a liability all the time.

Cronin said he wants accountability from the players and he wants to have them fight for their spots. Michkov is the complete opposite.
 
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