Pronman released a couple of articles on draft eligible player upside and comparables over at The Athletic. Here are the Carlsson and Fantilli projections:
Comps:
Adam Fantilli, C, Michigan: Jonathan Toews
When thinking about Fantilli’s comp, I started with players I thought were very well-rounded. Toews first came to mind. At his peak, he was a high-end skill-and-motor type of center despite not posting monster offensive totals. I’ve also heard the
Nathan MacKinnon comp from some scouts. MacKinnon is one of the best skaters I’ve ever seen, but I don’t have Fantilli’s feet quite at that level.
Leo Carlsson, C, Orebro: Tomas Hertl
All season I felt Carlsson was a likely NHL winger so I had his comp as
Mikko Rantanen. I chose Rantanen due to a similar body type and because both have high-end skill and vision with just OK footspeed. It helps I can draw a line from how Rantanen looked in Finland as a draft eligible to how Carlsson looked in the SHL. Rantanen is a superstar though, so I felt that may be overshooting it. Colleague Max Bultman suggested
Matt Boldy for Carlsson. I think that may be closer, although I think Carlsson has a slightly more interior game than Boldy. My preference was not to use very young players as the comps, although that wasn’t always possible if I couldn’t come up with anybody. These examples are wings, but as the season went on into the world championships, I felt convinced Carlsson could be an NHL center. A highly-skilled NHL center with size and footspeed issues could be
Pierre-Luc Dubois, but I felt Hertl was the better fit.
Ceiling/Upside:
1. Matvei Michkov, RW, SKA-Russia
All right I know I have to explain this one as you all sharpen your pitchforks. Michkov may be the best draft eligible I’ve ever seen from inside the offensive blue line, or at least in the mix. His skill plus offensive sense combination is incredible. He sees the game at a different level and is a scoring-chance machine once he gets the puck inside the opponent’s zone. The lack of speed and size are notable hindrances in his pro projection — both are worse than Connor Bedard’s and he doesn’t have Bedard’s motor — but he’s a unique player and has the potential to put up massive amounts of offense as a pro if he hits, which isn’t a sure thing.
Narrowly trailing Michkov is the presumptive No. 1 pick in Bedard. Bedard is projected to become a top-scoring NHL forward. He has game-breaking skill and goal-scoring ability, and could potentially be a regular for 35 to 40 goals in the NHL. There is true superstar upside in his game with fewer risk variables in his skill set than someone like Michkov, due to his superior speed and compete.
3. Adam Fantilli, C, Michigan-Big Ten
You could argue any of the top three ranked players here for best upside in the draft and I would think it’s reasonable. Fantilli, like Bedard and Michkov, has incredible skill. He may be a notch or two below both in terms of pure offensive abilities, but he’s much bigger and stronger than either and faster than Michkov. His physical toolkit is the most prototypical of the three prospects of an NHL star.
4. Leo Carlsson, C, Orebro-SHL
When a player is a 6-foot-3 forward with game-breaking skill and offensive instincts, it’s easy to envision a path for them to become a star. Carlsson made so many unique plays with the puck this season in one of the best leagues in the world. He’s so talented, and while his skating could use some work, he has the potential to put up big scoring numbers for a long time.