Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft - Part 2 (Who Do You Want To Draft At #2)

[nbducksfan19]

Have this strange feeling we are going to select Carlsson, based on how the interviews will go. I will be fine with that, if that’s the case.

I genuinely think it’s 50-50, which pretty much how I feel about them. But, I am glad our scouts get to choose.

My belief is that the skills Carlsson excels at: high IQ, great passer/vision, ect will and do translate very seamlessly to the NHL. While the things Fantilli does fantastically well: speed, size, compete, motor, individual play, have a longer history of being neutralized in the best league in the world.

I want to love Fantilli because I think his toolkit and intangibles are elite and special. While I now slightly lean Carlsson, I would be estatic if Fantilli is the pick because that means our scouts, who I trust, have strong conviction that his game will protect/grow at the NHL level.

 

[Leonardo87]

Ya if there’s one area where Fantilli has a clear edge on Carlsson, it’s probably in speaking. Definitely have sympathy for Carlsson, though. I used to have speech issues when I was a kid and I can’t imagine having to go through critical interviews with something that.

Wasn’t referring to Carlsson’s interview but more Fantilli’s. If he says he wants to go back to college , could that be a turn off to Verbeek, thinking this kid is at least ready for the AHL?

Then again , verbeek doesn’t like to rush prospects. So maybe he’s more than cool if the kids wants to stay in college , even if I don’t think there is more for him there to develop.

 

[GermanRocket7]

If we choose Carlsson over Fantilli, we might as well rebuild for a third time. Not even in the same ball park right now and most likely will have quite different career paths as well. Fantilli is the clear choice and anything else would be a horrible mistake.

 

[Leonardo87]

If we choose Carlsson over Fantilli, we might as well rebuild for a third time. Not even in the same ball park right now and most likely will have quite different career paths as well. Fantilli is the clear choice and anything else would be a horrible mistake.

From what I read both are very close. But Fantilli checks off more boxes for us.

 

[nbducksfan19]

I keep hearing this “checks more boxes” argument, it feels like a groupthink regurgitation that now is taken as fact.

first, I don’t even necessarily agree, they both check boxes of things we need. But, much more importantly, at this spot with perhaps franchise level prospects available, you pick the player you think will be the very best player, period.

If you want to add compete or “check boxes” sign someone like bertuzzi and draft Carlsson..

 

[ohcomeonref]

I keep hearing this “checks more boxes” argument, it feels like a groupthink regurgitation that now is taken as fact.

first, I don’t even necessarily agree, they both check boxes of things we need. But, much more importantly, at this spot with perhaps franchise level prospects available, you pick the player you think will be the very best player, period.

If you want to add compete or “check boxes” sign someone like bertuzzi and draft Carlsson..

Fantilli is big and plays big with a bit of a mean streak, something we are sorely lacking in our top 6. He's also an excellent skater. Those are two boxes Fantilli checks that Carlson does not and they're also things the team happens to be lacking. In a conversation where both players can be talked about interchangeably as the best 2OA choice, don't you then select by specific skills the team is lacking?

Just because you don't like the prospect doesn't mean the arguments in his favor are "groupthink regurgitation".

 

[Kalv]

I keep hearing this “checks more boxes” argument, it feels like a groupthink regurgitation that now is taken as fact.

first, I don’t even necessarily agree, they both check boxes of things we need. But, much more importantly, at this spot with perhaps franchise level prospects available, you pick the player you think will be the very best player, period.

If you want to add compete or “check boxes” sign someone like bertuzzi and draft Carlsson..

Personally I think that both will be very good but Carlsson will have an edge in regular season while Fantilli will have an edge in the playoffs

 

[tomd]

Found this over on the Columbus board...

Hockey Prospect Radio this morning Fantilli vs Carlsson

 

[ScarTroy]

Found this over on the Columbus board...

Guys like that first guy love to say controversial shit, because if they are right, they get to bring it up, but if they are wrong no one really cares enough to remember.

 

[Kalv]

Guys like that first guy love to say controversial shit, because if they are right, they get to bring it up, but if they are wrong no one really cares enough to remember.

Plus, controversial stuff gets clicks. I didn't yet check the video tho

Tomorrow comes out EliteProspects draft guide, cannot wait. They're a great source

 

[Mr Rogers]

Can somebody tell him how to pronounce Fantilli and heiskanen properly? As for the content, it’s no different than what the Fantilli naysayers in the prospects forum are incessantly saying

 

[Leonardo87]

Guys like that first guy love to say controversial shit, because if they are right, they get to bring it up, but if they are wrong no one really cares enough to remember.

Saying Carlsson has the potential to be better than Bedard, is as bold as they come. I’ll say it again, either player we get has the potential to really be great, and a franchise player. June 28th cannot come soon enough, lol.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Wasn’t referring to Carlsson’s interview but more Fantilli’s. If he says he wants to go back to college , could that be a turn off to Verbeek, thinking this kid is at least ready for the AHL?

Then again , verbeek doesn’t like to rush prospects. So maybe he’s more than cool if the kids wants to stay in college , even if I don’t think there is more for him there to develop.

I differ on the opinion that both Fantilli and Carlsson are optimally NHL-ready today. Also excluded from this equation is that the Ducks are currently a clusterfawk. Anaheim currently no head coach, unknown assistant coaches, and the blueline roster is still in its infancy stage. San Diego has a new head coach, last year's assistant coaches (no scrutiny here for some unknown reason), and a plethora of incoming rookies (3 rookie defensemen, 4-7 rookie forwards, and a rookie goalie).

Carlsson ===
Carlsson belongs to a top-tier SHL club, facing other top-tier teams. (Teams that aren't strong are regulated to the 2nd-tier called HockeyAllsvenskan.) That environment vastly improved Carlsson's offensive output between the two seasons. And then Carlsson took his game up another notch in the playoffs as he finished 2nd in scoring, first in assists, and second in plus/minus ratings.

Carlsson
Season	DY POV	League	Season	Games	G	A	Pts	PPG		Plus/Minus
2021-22	D-1	SHL	Regular	35​	3​	6​	9​	0.26​		1​
2022-23	D+0	SHL	Regular	44​	10​	15​	25​	0.57​		-5​
		SHL	Post	13​	1​	8​	9​	0.69​		8​

An extra year of refinement and possibly playing at center in the SHL could be far more advantageous than on a rebuild NHL or AHL club with the Ducks' org.

Fantilli ===
Top players returning to the Michigan program isn't unheard of. Here's a list of first round picks that have stayed or will stay two seasons in recent years.

• 2021
  • 1st OA, D Power, 2020-22
  • 2nd OA, C Beniers, 2020-22
  • 4th OA, D L. Hughes, 2021-23
  • 5th OA, LW Johnson, 2020-22

• 2022
  • 14th OA, C/LW McGroarty, 2022-24

Fantilli has always been bigger and much faster that his competition for his hockey career. Last year was his first year against competition that were just as big and faster than he was used to seeing, but only in 36 games. Looking at Fantilli's physical game, can his body withstand playing an 82 game schedule at the NHL level? McTavish looked worn out around game 50 from last year, but the trio of Power, Beniers, and Johnson didn't flame out at the end of the season.

Another season of physical development will pay far more dividends by going back to the NCAA program instead of waiting for the summer to do build up his body. Rest is an important factor to building one's body and that's afforded by going through the college route where they only play two games a week, usually on weekends.

Right now, Fantilli's skating (including acceleration), shot follow through, and physical game (timed booming hits) are far ahead of his team play, team pace, and shot accuracy. He's playing hero puck all the time instead of picking the correct time to play hero puck. Staying at the same program to work on all these weakness is a more optimal path than working on all those weaknesses in a new program, new coaching, new teammates, much fewer times to reflect, much fewer times to practice, and all of that in a different league.

Most NHL ready ===

In the 2018 draft, Lundestrom was considered the most-NHL ready prospect because of his defense. Lundy had potential to being a second line winger or center, provided his offense continues to grow. Anaheim brought Lundy over and kept him in NA for short bit, but eventually sent him back to Sweden. The Ducks stunted Lundy's offensive growth, and possibly his defensive growth as well. (Caveat: The Ducks lost so many centers to start the 2018 season that even Sam Steel was pushed to the NHL level to start his pro career.)

Lundestrom
Season	DY POV	League	Season	Games	G	A	Pts	PPG	PPG chart	Plus/Minus
2015-16	D-2	SHL	Regular	4​	0​	0​	0​	0.00​		-1​
2016-17	D-1	SHL	Regular	45​	3​	3​	6​	0.13​	|||||||||||||	-5​
2017-18	D+0	SHL	Regular	42​	6​	9​	15​	0.36​	|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||	7​
2018-19	D+1	NHL	Regular	15​	0​	2​	2​	0.13​	|||||||||||||	-1​
		AHL	Regular	12​	0​	6​	6​	0.50​	||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||	-6​
		AHL	Playoffs	7​	1​	2​	3​	0.43​	||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||	3​
		SHL	Regular	17​	2​	7​	9​	0.53​	||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||	5​
		SHL	Playoffs	10​	2​	6​	8​	0.80​	||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||	-2​
2019-20	D+2	NHL	Regular	15​	0​	4​	4​	0.27​	||||||||||||||||||||||||||	-2​
		AHL	Regular	43​	6​	15​	21​	0.49​	||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||	-6​
2020-21	D+3	HA	Regular	12​	5​	6​	11​	0.92​	|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||	7​
		NHL	Regular	41​	6​	3​	9​	0.22​	|||||||||||||||||||||	-9​
2021-22	D+4	NHL	Regular	80​	16​	13​	29​	0.36​	||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||	-3​
2022-23	D+5	NHL	Regular	61​	4​	10​	14​	0.23​	||||||||||||||||||||||	-13​

In retrospect, the jump from Sweden to North American play as an 18-year old was too much for Lundy. Could an extra year in the SHL with the same club make Lundy a much more offensive weapon at the NHL level? Probably because Lundy wouldn't be typecast as a shutdown center. Also, that extra year probably would have given Lundy more confidence as a player coming over to NA.

Anaheim did try to convert Lundy into a top-6 winger in 2020-21 season, but his first attempt failed and was sent back down to San Diego to develop as a winger. Coach Dineen, Gulls head coach, made something click with Lundy to where he played so well that Lundy was called back up to Anaheim before any regular season AHL game was played. Injuries happened to the center position again and Lundy slotted right back into center. He's stuck there since.

Carlsson is young and there's better support group for him in Sweden. Fantilli doesn't lack confidence because he's already playing on NA ice, but that jump is much bigger if he can't develop his team pace, team play, and body. Anaheim is an organization still in its infancy, from coaching to player personnel. We're not trying to make the playoffs next year. Give both Carlsson and Fantilli that extra season to develop in a better environment and for more optimal growth.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Fantilli is big and plays big with a bit of a mean streak, something we are sorely lacking in our top 6. He's also an excellent skater. Those are two boxes Fantilli checks that Carlson does not and they're also things the team happens to be lacking. In a conversation where both players can be talked about interchangeably as the best 2OA choice, don't you then select by specific skills the team is lacking?

Just because you don't like the prospect doesn't mean the arguments in his favor are "groupthink regurgitation".

I think there is a difference between "checks more boxes" and "checks different boxes". The conversation between Fantilli and Carlsson is "checks different boxes", otherwise, why would our GM fly over to Europe to view both? The only player who "checks more boxes" is Bedard.

 

[Leonardo87]

See, I have mixed opinions on this, if the player is ready to make the jump to pros, why stop them? I think SD is a good place to have a stint, like what Zegras and Mac did.

I also have mixed feelings about leaving them in their current league if those leagues cannot do any more for them. Both players didn’t look out of place in the WC. Again, it’s an opinion, so we shall see.

 

[ScarTroy]

See, I have mixed opinions on this, if the player is ready to make the jump to pros, why stop them? I think SD is a good place to have a stint, like what Zegras and Mac did.

I also have mixed feelings about leaving them in their current league if those leagues cannot do anymore for them. Both players didn’t look out of place in the WC. Again, it’s an opinion, so we shall see.

I agree, if Fantilli suffers from already playing hero puck, how will going back to college help him? He was already the best player there at 18, he’s going to be even better now. It should be AHL or NHL for him, I just don’t see what more he gains from NCAA other than trying to win a title for personal achievement, but I don’t think it helps his development really to be there.

 

[70sSanO]

Kopitar seems to be the comparison for Carlsson, except I’m not convinced about Carlson’s 2-way game.

I’m might be the only person here with this opinion, but I don’t want to build a team around Kopitar.

Yes the Kings won 2 cups with him, but the names on those playoff runs are Quick, Carter, Dustin Brown in ‘12, Garborik in ‘14, and the Kings defense.

Carlsson is safe and steady and Fantilli seems to be risk-reward. I’d rather take the high compete/effort and playing with an edge. Just the fact that Fantilli is considered so unique is enough for me.

John

 

[LePerilsofPerreault]

These names look like someone put their hands on the wrong homekeys in the dark.

That's a big part of the appeal lol but they're both actually very good prospects

 

[70sSanO]

This not fair and I’m sure people will call me out as only one play, but I went back to when Carlsson lost the puck against Latvia.

It is not losing the puck I was looking at, since it happens to everyone, but what happened next. It did not seem like Carlsson went all out when the play went the other way. And there is no way to know how Fantilli would react.

The infuriating part of Getzlaf’s game was not just the no look turnover passes, but his lack of hustle after making the mistake. Even if it is not possible to catch up, I wanted Getz to show that extra effort.

John

 

[ohcomeonref]

I think there is a difference between "checks more boxes" and "checks different boxes". The conversation between Fantilli and Carlsson is "checks different boxes", otherwise, why would our GM fly over to Europe to view both? The only player who "checks more boxes" is Bedard.

I can agree with this distinction. I think the boxes Fantilli checks are better for our team than the boxes Carlson checks.

 

[nbducksfan19]

Fantilli is big and plays big with a bit of a mean streak, something we are sorely lacking in our top 6. He's also an excellent skater. Those are two boxes Fantilli checks that Carlson does not and they're also things the team happens to be lacking. In a conversation where both players can be talked about interchangeably as the best 2OA choice, don't you then select by specific skills the team is lacking?

Just because you don't like the prospect doesn't mean the arguments in his favor are "groupthink regurgitation".

I don’t mean to say that Fantilli does not “check boxes” that Carlsson does not, he must definitely does. But, that ignores the fact that Carlsson checks boxes Fantilli does not: elite playmaking ability, ability to slow the game down and use teammates effectively, oh and he’s 6’ 3”. Did I miss something or do we already have a Kopitar/Barkov I’m our top 6?

Also, while these 2 may be talked about in the media as somewhat interchangeable, I imagine most teams/scouts will have a higher projection on one than the other. In this scenario you absolutely go for the guy you project higher, even marginally, rather than “checking boxes”.

 

[AngelDuck]

Kopitar is a first ballot hall of famer. He’s the Kings version of Getzlaf(a center that went out there for 18-20 years and controlled the game)

Did I seriously just read that you wouldn’t want to build a team around him?

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Kopitar is a first ballot hall of famer. He’s the Kings version of Getzlaf(a center that went out there for 18-20 years and controlled the game)

Did I seriously just read that you wouldn’t want to build a team around him?

maybe I’m missing something but I don’t see kopitar in carlsson at all

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Lol, imagine not wanting to build a team around a Kopitar

 

[Kalv]

I think what John wanted to say, is "there are better players to build your team around at a similar skill level" instead of "I'd turn him down if given for free".

But I don't want to put words in anyone's mouth.