Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft - Part 2 (Who Do You Want To Draft At #2)

[FiveTacos]

There’s no real getting around that Toews was probably overrated a bit as a player due to how good the Blackhawks were, but its also worth mentioning that when these guys make the Toews comparison it’s probably to the player they think he was. So when they say Toews I don’t think they mean in the sense he won’t be a force offensively.

The way some people talk about Toews you'd think he was as good as Mark Messier, which he clearly was not.

That said I don't think we'd be at all disappointed if he turned out to be "only" a Toews, but man it'd be awesome if he turned out to be a Messier. With better hair.

 

[KyleJRM]

Toews' 76-point season was good for 14th in the league in 2010-11. That's the equivalent of 95 points in 2022-23.

He was overrated for the Cups by people who wanted to put him in the Crosby tier, but he's underrated by anyone who thinks he was "just" a 70-pont center. Advanced stats always had him at the very top of the league in possession stats.

If either Fantilli or Carlsson can threaten top-20 in the league in scoring while winning 57% of faceoffs, having elite takeaway/giveaway ratios and playing great defense, I will be extremely happy with that.

 

[Ducks]

For the record, I was thinking that Fantilli's ceiling is probably Toews at his peak. His Conn Smythe performance in the playoffs that first year they won the cup was pretty incredible scoring 1.5ppg with a complete 200ft game. It's extremely rare to find a point per game forward that can also win a Selke and be a playoff MVP. If Fantilli becomes an 80-90pt guy while winning Selke's and Conn Smyth trophies is there really anything more that we could have realistically hoped for?

 

[HanSolo]

Toews' 76-point season was good for 14th in the league in 2010-11. That's the equivalent of 95 points in 2022-23.

He was overrated for the Cups by people who wanted to put him in the Crosby tier, but he's underrated by anyone who thinks he was "just" a 70-pont center. Advanced stats always had him at the very top of the league in possession stats.

If either Fantilli or Carlsson can threaten top-20 in the league in scoring while winning 57% of faceoffs, having elite takeaway/giveaway ratios and playing great defense, I will be extremely happy with that.

I wasn't saying it would be a disappointment if that's what he ended up being. But with his kind of tool kit, I think he has a higher absolute ceiling (was the exact term I used). Like a better Toews. He could end up worse than Toews for all we know. For me the top end of a ceiling is what you get if absolutely everything goes perfectly with a guy's development and growth. Most guys don't have the special quality needed to be a McDavid tier player even at their absolute ceiling and I'm by no means expecting that of Fantilli. I can't even say what I'm expecting, but is a 100+ point player outside the realm of possibility for him given his toolbox? I don't think so.

 

[robbieboy3686]

Even in the playoffs, good luck landing an open ice hit on Bedard. He's one of the most elusive skaters I've ever seen, regularly weaving his way through defenders effortlessly. He's also pretty sturdy for 5'9'' (I know he's listed as 5'10'', but I don't believe it), so I think he'll be fine. Someone would probably have to target him against the boards and really line him up with a dirty hit to take him out in the playoffs and the fallout of something like that would be huge given what he means to the league.

Like almost all nhl midgets, no matter who they are. Sooner or later, the injuries just pile up. It’s an unfortunate reality for them.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

Definitely appreciate your passion regarding Michkov but it is misplaced on the Ducks board. PV pretty much went on record after the lottery saying that one of the two big centers would be the Ducks pick. Fantilli or Carlsson although he didn't name names. Michkov will likely be a great player somewhere but it won't be in Anaheim.

I appreciate your response. I am not passionate about Michkov. I am passionate about hockey though. And I have a lot of respect and admiration for special hockey talent.

I genuinely hope one of the 2 guys you draft gets a whole lot points and Ws before 2026. Especially if the sharks take Michkov.

If you forced me personally to choose between the 2, I would take Carlsson. His hockey IQ is incredible and he can be electric. He won't out score Mitchkov ever, but really only a few players will.

As far as what choice the ducks actually make, they are going to take Fantilli. Fantilli will be great too. They will be very happy with the pick for sure. He also more likely than not will never outscore Michkov, but yeah he is and will be very good. I mean Jack Eichel is a fantastic player, he isn't McDavid, but that doesn't make Jack any less great

I mean, you literally said it doesn’t matter. And don’t get me started on the myth that teams reach because of height. Good god you’ve gotta have no self awareness to lean into that one.

I also didn’t say you were comparing Michkov and Stutzle as prospects, but you seemed to be making some kind of comparison and I don’t know why given Stutzle isn’t small. Why bring him up at all? It’s weird.

Dude I spent hours going through drafts. Am I going to have to look through my posts from this years and post the all the information I found about height in the draft for you? I might.

I brought up Stutzle because he is a recently drafted player who just scored 90 points? Is there height requirement on playstyle? The point was if Stutzle just scored 90 points and Michkov is head and Shoulders better as a prospect the outcome for michkov will be.....

 

[Ducks DVM]

Here is another 64k dollar question for you guys. You think there is any chance a player like Fantilli/Carlsson ends up being a better all around player than Bedard.

Sure Bedard can put up his potential 100+ points but if Fantilli is putting up only 80-90 but playing a two way game defending going against top competition and can be like Bergeron level. Doesn’t that fit our needs more? Since we already have flashy players in Zegras and Terry.

Do you want Kane or Bergeron?

 

[Leonardo87]

Do you want Kane or Bergeron?

Both. Lol.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Both. Lol.

You better have some dirt on the Chicago GM for that trade then…

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

I appreciate your response. I am not passionate about Michkov. I am passionate about hockey though. And I have a lot of respect and admiration for special hockey talent.

I genuinely hope one of the 2 guys you draft gets a whole lot points and Ws before 2026. Especially if the sharks take Michkov.

If you forced me personally to choose between the 2, I would take Carlsson. His hockey IQ is incredible and he can be electric. He won't out score Mitchkov ever, but really only a few players will.

As far as what choice the ducks actually make, they are going to take Fantilli. Fantilli will be great too. They will be very happy with the pick for sure. He also more likely than not will never outscore Michkov, but yeah he is and will be very good. I mean Jack Eichel is a fantastic player, he isn't McDavid, but that doesn't make Jack any less great


Dude I spent hours going through drafts. Am I going to have to look through my posts from this years and post the all the information I found about height in the draft for you? I might.

I brought up Stutzle because he is a recently drafted player who just scored 90 points? Is there height requirement on playstyle? The point was if Stutzle just scored 90 points and Michkov is head and Shoulders better as a prospect the outcome for michkov will be.....

It doesn’t matter, it isn’t real data. It’s not based anything other than your own cherry picking and there’s no way it won’t be clouded by hindsight. Also it’s not occurred to you someone might draft player A over player B because they simply like them better?

And what is this Stutzle comparison lmao? Like, ok? Cool, I guess?

 

[Leonardo87]

You better have some dirt on the Chicago GM for that trade then…

I think a Bergeron type player fits our needs more since we have Zegras and Terry.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Do you want Kane or Bergeron?

I don’t think it’s a great comp for a few reasons but I legitimately might take Bergeron in that one.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

You better have some dirt on the Chicago GM for that trade then…

The league had the dirt and proved they would do nothing.

 

[tomd]

It doesn’t matter, it isn’t real data. It’s not based anything other than your own cherry picking and there’s no way it won’t be clouded by hindsight. Also it’s not occurred to you someone might draft player A over player B because they simply like them better?

And what is this Stutzle comparison lmao? Like, ok? Cool, I guess?

Michkov has benefitted from being severely under scouted in the past year. In many ways he is still living off his U18 performance 2 years ago.

 

[Deuce22]

Michkov has benefitted from being severely under scouted in the past year. In many ways he is still living off his U18 performance 2 years ago.

This is assuming he’s regressed. If he’s improved, he has been hurt by being under scouted.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I don’t think it’s a great comp for a few reasons but I legitimately might take Bergeron in that one.

I was struggling to find a pure offense “generational” player. Kane was the best I could come up with. He’s certainly not Crosby, Ovechkin, or Malkin.

But yes, I think Bergeron is who I’d want in almost every circumstance.

 

[AngelDuck]

I would take Kane over Bergeron easily. Kane has 3 cups and is a great playoff performer

Was Bergeron even the best player on his line most of his career? Marchand and pasta pretty damn good linemates

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

This is assuming he’s regressed. If he’s improved, he has been hurt by being under scouted.

Honestly I’m not sure. Bedard had one of the greatest world juniors ever and a WHL season that might’ve been relatively better than McDavid’s and Crosby’s and I don’t think it changed much. I mean, obviously he couldn’t climb higher when he’s already at 1, but it didn’t really seem to make people think more highly of him as a prospect, either. Even without the uncertainty I get the sense Michkov might not have went 2 or even 3 this year.

 

[Deuce22]

Honestly I’m not sure. Bedard had one of the greatest world juniors ever and a WHL season that might’ve been relatively better than McDavid’s and Crosby’s and I don’t think it changed much. I mean, obviously he couldn’t climb higher when he’s already at 1, but it didn’t really seem to make people think more highly of him as a prospect, either. Even without the uncertainty I get the sense Michkov might not have went 2 or even 3 this year.

Maybe not, I just don’t agree that being “under scouted” has helped his draft stock.

 

[goonsaredumb]

I would take Kane over Bergeron easily. Kane has 3 cups and is a great playoff performer

Was Bergeron even the best player on his line most of his career? Marchand and pasta pretty damn good linemates

Bergeron's got 1 cup, 2 additional final appearances, is no slouch in the playoffs himself, and is one of if not the greatest two-way forward of all time while Kane can't play a lick of defense, I'd go with Bergeron personally but I can see the argument for either guy they're both HOF level players

 

[Ducks DVM]

I would take Kane over Bergeron easily. Kane has 3 cups and is a great playoff performer

53G 85A 138P 143GP +4
50G 78A 128P 170GP +48 57.9%FO

Kane had an amazing peak, Bergeron has 5 Selke’s. Kane has 2 seasons over 100 points and 40 goals, Bergeron has a career +/- of 289 vs +41. They do different things. I will gleefully take either.

 

[Fighter]

I go back to the original topic: for me it's Fantilli, period. I know Carlsson is another kid who could easily go 1st overall in most other draft but to me Fanti is simply the BPA at 2. As for Minchkov, with the talents available I just don't see why "risk" to pick up somebody who could be held back by his country politics.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

It doesn’t matter, it isn’t real data. It’s not based anything other than your own cherry picking and there’s no way it won’t be clouded by hindsight. Also it’s not occurred to you someone might draft player A over player B because they simply like them better?

And what is this Stutzle comparison lmao? Like, ok? Cool, I guess?

I think I explained why I referenced stutzle. I also stated michkov is a better prospect than Hughes and will be better than Hughes. I am not sure what the hang up here is.

What I pulled was not cherry picked. The initial plan was to go through the first round picks from 97 or some 90s year to present and see if larger players were selected over high talent players. If you want to see the results look through my posts. Off the top of my head I can tell you the 99 draft draft consisted of more than 75% of players being 6'3" or taller. The lowest percentage of players 6'3" or taller selected in the first round of all drafts I looked at was 25%. I stopped after 4 drafts for 3 reasons:

1. Even the lowest result 25% of the first round being over 6'3", is a statistical anomaly when compared to height statistics of the general population(which someone in the initial thread used to attempt to argue I was wrong, so I went through the drafts and proved if the height is already an anomaly, what is the larger percentage of players at the height or bigger in the first round?). 75% is a bit more than that.

2. While there were a few players of height with great success, it was pretty low compared to the amount of them drafted. There was more strong evidence players under "big height" were passed on for size. Scott Gomez is example I remember. Gomez was the last pick in a first round, his biggest fault as prospect was height. He was the 3rd most successful player in terms of production in the 1st round. I went into a lot more in depth in thread I initially researched this for. I listed all players over 6'3" and all players under 6' In each draft. I also included their total point productions. That leads me to the third reason I stopped after 4 draft years

3. It was a lot of work. If you really want to go more I depth than I did, by all means go for it. From the information I gathered, it is evident. You can go through my posts to see what I did, but in theme with this number I will not because it is work that does not feel worth it to me

I don't have anything more to add here. I appreciate the back and forth and I hope you have a wonderful night

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

I think I explained why I referenced stutzle. I also stated michkov is a better prospect than Hughes and will be better than Hughes. I am not sure what the hang up here is.

What I pulled was not cherry picked. The initial plan was to go through the first round picks from 97 or some 90s year to present and see if larger players were selected over high talent players. If you want to see the results look through my posts. Off the top of my head I can tell you the 99 draft draft consisted of more than 75% of players being 6'3" or taller. The lowest percentage of players 6'3" or taller selected in the first round of all drafts I looked at was 25%. I stopped after 4 drafts for 3 reasons:

1. Even the lowest result 25% of the first round being over 6'3", is a statistical anomaly when compared to height statistics of the general population(which someone in the initial thread used to attempt to argue I was wrong, so I went through the drafts and proved if the height is already an anomaly, what is the larger percentage of players at the height or bigger in the first round?). 75% is a bit more than that.

2. While there were a few players of height with great success, it was pretty low compared to the amount of them drafted. There was more strong evidence players under "big height" were passed on for size. Scott Gomez is example I remember. Gomez was the last pick in a first round, his biggest fault as prospect was height. He was the 3rd most successful player in terms of production in the 1st round. I went into a lot more in depth in thread I initially researched this for. I listed all players over 6'3" and all players under 6' In each draft. I also included their total point productions. That leads me to the third reason I stopped after 4 draft years

3. It was a lot of work. If you really want to go more I depth than I did, by all means go for it. From the information I gathered, it is evident. You can go through my posts to see what I did, but in theme with this number I will not because it is work that does not feel worth it to me

I don't have anything more to add here. I appreciate the back and forth and I hope you have a wonderful night

C’mon man. You looked at drafts from 25 years ago to try and tell you about relevant draft trends? This is so much worse than I thought it was.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

C’mon man. You looked at drafts from 25 years ago to try and tell you about relevant draft trends? This is so much worse than I thought it was.

My guy, look at more recent drafts yourself and let me know what you find. It took me hours to do that side project for a hockey forum.

The issue I had with starting at the present and working back is some players are not done developing, and their total career production is unknown.

Off the top of my head slightly more recent examples Strome over Marner. Marner was a superior talent. Strome was bigger. Cole Caulfield falling to 15.

Outside of that compiling the in depth information would require a lot of work. If I have free time tomorrow maybe I will go through the most recent 5 drafts and let you know or 2015 to 2020 or something let me know what you are looking for and I will do the same thing for more recent drafts. Then we can find out together if what I found from earlier drafts is still relevant. Good?

Have a great night