Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft (mod warning 1st post)

[Hockey Duckie]

Carlsson may go 2nd with Fantilli 3rd. Here is a quote from Bob McKenzies mid seasons ranking.

"Of the 10 scouts surveyed, Fantilli received four No. 2 votes, compared to three each for Carlsson and Michkov. Fantilli had five third-place votes and one fourth-place vote; Carlsson had five third-place votes and two fourth-place votes; and Michkov had seven fourth-place votes."

McKenzie's mid-season ranking was published on Jan 23rd. Fantilli's offense took off to another level after the WJC, which ended Jan 5th.

To me Fantilli is ahead, he seems more well-rounded. Carlsson is more offense-oriented and less of a two-way player, IMO, which is maybe a result of his inferior skating.

Do you think Getzlaf is less of a two-way player because of his inferior skating?

Fantilli and Carlsson are two different types of players.

Fantilli is a fast, tenactious, and emphatic goal scorer. The way he plays, especially at the WJC, was "hero puck". Fantilli was a whirling dervish that couldn't mesh with his team. He took his scoring to another level after the WJC and made him become a consensus #2. With that prolific scoring, then he should be able to carry that play into the Big-10 and Frozen Four Tourney. Against stronger competition, that high end offense was muted.

In the Big-10 championship game against Minny, Fantilli notched one assist while McGroarty scored 2g + 1a.​

​

First game in the Frozen Four tourney against Colgate, Michigan won 11-1. Fantilli went 1g+1a. McGroarty had a hat trick, Luke Hughes went 1g+3a, and TJ Hughes had 3 assists.​

​

Second game in the Frozen Four tourney against Penn St, Michigan won 2-1 in OT. Fantilli scored a PP goal. Samoskevic got the OT goal winner and an assist.​

​

In the Final Four, Michigan lost 5-2 to Quinnipiac. Fantilli scored a goal, Luke Hughes had an assist, and McGroarty also had an assist.​

Carlsson is your typical European 2-way, team player who is doing it at a men's level. There are players in the SHL who have kids that are around Carlsson's age. Another difference between the NCAA and SHL is that the weaker teams in the SHL are the best of the weaker teams, where the rest are relegated to HockeyAllsvenskan.

Before the WJC, Leo and Adam were about the same level. At the WJC, Carlsson shined bright as he finished tied for third in scoring for Sweden with 6 points, third in goal scoring with 3 goals, and second in plus/minus with +8. After the WJC, Carlsson had to claw his way back into the lineup from fourth line minutes and up again. The gap between Fantilli and Carlsson was widening.

Carlsson's team made the playoffs and not much is being talked about his playoff performance with the scouting media. Leo finished second on the team in scoring with 9 points in 13 playoff games, first in assists with 8 assists, and second on the team in plus/minus with +8.

Because of how each player performed in the playoffs against tougher competition, I'm leaning towards Carlsson as the #2 pick. Verbeek would go with Fantilli b/c it fits an image he wants like the drafting of Gaucher over Snuggerud and Kulich last year.

 

[Deuce22]

McKenzie's mid-season ranking was published on Jan 23rd. Fantilli's offense took off to another level after the WJC, which ended Jan 5th.



Do you think Getzlaf is less of a two-way player because of his inferior skating?

Fantilli and Carlsson are two different types of players.

Fantilli is a fast, tenactious, and emphatic goal scorer. The way he plays, especially at the WJC, was "hero puck". Fantilli was a whirling dervish that couldn't mesh with his team. He took his scoring to another level after the WJC and made him become a consensus #2. With that prolific scoring, then he should be able to carry that play into the Big-10 and Frozen Four Tourney. Against stronger competition, that high end offense was muted.

In the Big-10 championship game against Minny, Fantilli notched one assist while McGroarty scored 2g + 1a.​

​

First game in the Frozen Four tourney against Colgate, Michigan won 11-1. Fantilli went 1g+1a. McGroarty had a hat trick, Luke Hughes went 1g+3a, and TJ Hughes had 3 assists.​

​

Second game in the Frozen Four tourney against Penn St, Michigan won 2-1 in OT. Fantilli scored a PP goal. Samoskevic got the OT goal winner and an assist.​

​

In the Final Four, Michigan lost 5-2 to Quinnipiac. Fantilli scored a goal, Luke Hughes had an assist, and McGroarty also had an assist.​

Carlsson is your typical European 2-way, team player who is doing it at a men's level. There are players in the SHL who have kids that are around Carlsson's age. Another difference between the NCAA and SHL is that the weaker teams in the SHL are the best of the weaker teams, where the rest are relegated to HockeyAllsvenskan.

Before the WJC, Leo and Adam were about the same level. At the WJC, Carlsson shined bright as he finished tied for third in scoring for Sweden with 6 points, third in goal scoring with 3 goals, and second in plus/minus with +8. After the WJC, Carlsson had to claw his way back into the lineup from fourth line minutes and up again. The gap between Fantilli and Carlsson was widening.

Carlsson's team made the playoffs and not much is being talked about his playoff performance with the scouting media. Leo finished second on the team in scoring with 9 points in 13 playoff games, first in assists with 8 assists, and second on the team in plus/minus with +8.

Because of how each player performed in the playoffs against tougher competition, I'm leaning towards Carlsson as the #2 pick. Verbeek would go with Fantilli b/c it fits an image he wants like the drafting of Gaucher over Snuggerud and Kulich last year.

I'm not sure who Verbeek would take at #2. But since you are, a couple of questions.

-What if Verbeek just thinks Fantilli is a better prospect?
-Did Verbeek take Gaucher for image reasons? Or because he brings something the Ducks lack?
-How did this year's version of the Ducks align with the "image" you speak of?
-Does Mintyukov fit the image of rough and tough physical Dman?

 

[goonsaredumb]

Verbeek would go with Fantilli b/c it fits an image he wants like the drafting of Gaucher over Snuggerud and Kulich last year.

I'm not really sure I understand this part, wouldn't Carlsson be Gaucher in this scenario, the safer less flashy player who plays a hard two-way game vs. the flashy skill player with a higher upside

 

[Beckett]

I also believe Verbeek prefers Fantilli over Carlsson. As mentioned I prefer Carlsson, but would not be surprised at all if Fantilli has the better career. Can't go wrong at #3 IMO.

 

[HunterDuck]

Carlsson at 3 is excellent. We need a two way center to muck it up in the defensive zone as much as we need one to help Z and Mac on the other end

 

[Dryish]

I can't wait for us to fall exactly one spot in the lottery so that we can form feuding factions over Carlsson vs. Fantilli for a month and a half. You just know it's going to happen.

 

[Mr Rogers]

I can't wait for us to fall exactly one spot in the lottery so that we can form feuding factions over Carlsson vs. Fantilli for a month and a half. You just know it's going to happen.

somehow the least likely outcome seems like the most likely.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Has Carlsson spoken publicly about committing to come to NA next year or is there a chance he wants to play in the SHL one more year?

If he comes, is there any thought whether he might find himself in the A for a while? Maybe with a GM who like to over cook the young guys?

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I'm not sure who Verbeek would take at #2. But since you are, a couple of questions.

-What if Verbeek just thinks Fantilli is a better prospect?
-Did Verbeek take Gaucher for image reasons? Or because he brings something the Ducks lack?
-How did this year's version of the Ducks align with the "image" you speak of?
-Does Mintyukov fit the image of rough and tough physical Dman?

Good thing you ask someone who likes patterns.

Verbeek has an image for his team. Gaucher fits that image he wants - big, tough to play against, and bite. Snuggerud and Kulich apparently didn't have that image for Verbeek. We can extend this to the waiver wire pickups too. This season, Verbeek snatched up Leason and Megna, but passed on the small, scoring forward in Tolvanen. Fantilli fits that image of tenacity, speed, and high end goal scoring. It's that preference is why Verbeek thinks Fantilli is a better prospect just like Verbeek thinks Gaucher is a better prospect over Snuggerud and Kulich.

This year's Ducks aligned great to my image of what Verbeek was intending to do - prepare for the future. Verbeek doesn't care about this year's nor next year's NHL club because we're rebuilding from a designed reset. Verbeek took away physicality, defense, and balance at the TDL and didn't replace it. Why? Because the future is already in our pipeline.

Unlike many on here, when Verbeek reset the rebuild, I am totally on board with it despite me not liking the direction. I understood what Verbeek was trying to do: build talent depth and use that talent depth to control the cap. His rubric has an age-to-term ratio, kinda like how the NFL's New England Patriot's evil Emperor works, "I'd rather trade them a year early than have them a year too long." That strict philosophy works for the Patriots.

Verbeek's pro acquisition all scream plugs, including his waiver wire pickups. Z, Drysdale, and McTavish are the age range where Verbeek will build around, which is why he jettisoned Lindholm, Manson, and Rakell - their ages are too far from youth trio. Getting a third round pick for a pugilist was a straight steal for Verbeek.

========

Warren is the shutdown prototype that Verbeek wants. Unless you're Owner Power or Jake Sanderson, most shutdown defensemen don't go early in the draft. There's a top tier of shutdown D at last year's draft:

19. D Bichsel
21. D Pickering
29. D Lamoureaux
37. RD Chesley
42. RD Warren

We're fortunate to have Warren still available to us at 42.

At pick 10, the best prospects available pre-draft were three offensive defensemen in Korchinski, Minty, and Mateychuk. Just my opinion, but if Kasper was available at 10th, then we'd take Kasper. Unfortunately, Verbeek's mentor snatched Kasper two picks ahead of us.

Korchinski went a lot higher than expected at 7th. Kasper went 8th. At 10th, the Ducks were left to choose between the two OFDs left, Nick Ritchie 2.0 in Geekie, and a plethora of offensive forward smurfs.

During the draft, we figured out one of the preferences Verbeek was after - size. Gone from the equation are the offensive forward smurfs. Nick Ritchie 2.0 is the part of the reason why Geekie wasn't picked. The choice left was between 6'1 Minty and 5'11 Mateychuk.

Before we jump forward, we need to look behind to help shape our future. Anaheim has two young OFD's in their system in 5'11 Drysdale and 5'10 Zellweger. Minty was the obvious choice. Personally, I like Minty over Korchinski and Matechuk. Korchinski stayed at the blue line of offense and Matechuk was a bit too out of control (aka overly aggressive). Minty roved just right.

Also, 6'2 LaCombe and Thrun had just spurned Verbeek by returning to their college for their senior season. This is the other part of the reason Geekie wasn't selected. Minty is a great CYA.

I know you don't believe in specialized defensemen and that probably hinders nuanced thoughts as well as pattern finding skills.

Here are a couple of quotes by Verbeek on Warren and Minty:

On defensive prospect and 2022 second-round pick Noah Warren​

Noah's got another year in junior. He's kind of been dealing with a little bit of an ankle injury, so he hasn't been able to put up points, but at the NHL level, he's going to be a big, tough defender. He'll probably play with a more skilled offensive player. At some point, looking at him, he's going to be a guy who faces the other team's best opposition and be a guy who I call a "stopper" - a guy who does not allow other offensive players to do well.​

​

On defensive prospect, and 2022 first-round pick, Pavel Mintyukov​

Pavel's really having a great year in the OHL. He's a gifted kid offensively and really smart. His hockey sense is, I would put it pretty close to excellent. He really didn't show the type of player he was at rookie camp. I think he was kind of feeling his way through it. I could see him and, and Noah being partners one day in the future. For him, there are things that he needs to improve on structurally in his defensive game, but he competes, which is really good. We're going to need to add a little more structure to his game defensively though. There are certain things in his game he won't be able to get away with at the NHL level. ​

Apparently, Verbeek sees a future pairing of an OFD (Minty) with a DFD (Warren).

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I'm not really sure I understand this part, wouldn't Carlsson be Gaucher in this scenario, the safer less flashy player who plays a hard two-way game vs. the flashy skill player with a higher upside

Yes, you missed it. You are following the wrong onion layers with the Fantilli v Carlsson debate. Both players are considered #1 overall picks in other drafts, but not this one. They both have high scoring potentials and proved it in their own respective leagues.

Gaucher has tenacity and bite to his game when compared to Snuggerud and Kulich. I don't recall "flashy" being a description of both Snuggerud nor Kulich, just that they have potential top-6 scoring. Fantilli has tenacity, bite, and speed to his game compared to Carlsson. That speed is a known quantity. Remember, Verbeek wants the team to have an identity and Fantilli would fall in line with Gaucher. Carlsson is the non-flashy player (still developing that bite), but I think Carlsson has the higher upside due to his playoff performance.

I'm probably the only one that's brought this up b/c I haven't seem much talked about Fantilli getting muted in the playoffs compared to his usual high octane offense in the regular season nor have I seen Carlsson's stock elevated due to his productive performance in his playoffs against men.

 

[Deuce22]

Good thing you ask someone who likes patterns.

Verbeek has an image for his team. Gaucher fits that image he wants - big, tough to play against, and bite. Snuggerud and Kulich apparently didn't have that image for Verbeek. We can extend this to the waiver wire pickups too. This season, Verbeek snatched up Leason and Megna, but passed on the small, scoring forward in Tolvanen. Fantilli fits that image of tenacity, speed, and high end goal scoring. It's that preference is why Verbeek thinks Fantilli is a better prospect just like Verbeek thinks Gaucher is a better prospect over Snuggerud and Kulich.

This year's Ducks aligned great to my image of what Verbeek was intending to do - prepare for the future. Verbeek doesn't care about this year's nor next year's NHL club because we're rebuilding from a designed reset. Verbeek took away physicality, defense, and balance at the TDL and didn't replace it. Why? Because the future is already in our pipeline.

Unlike many on here, when Verbeek reset the rebuild, I am totally on board with it despite me not liking the direction. I understood what Verbeek was trying to do: build talent depth and use that talent depth to control the cap. His rubric has an age-to-term ratio, kinda like how the NFL's New England Patriot's evil Emperor works, "I'd rather trade them a year early than have them a year too long." That strict philosophy works for the Patriots.

Verbeek's pro acquisition all scream plugs, including his waiver wire pickups. Z, Drysdale, and McTavish are the age range where Verbeek will build around, which is why he jettisoned Lindholm, Manson, and Rakell - their ages are too far from youth trio. Getting a third round pick for a pugilist was a straight steal for Verbeek.

========

Warren is the shutdown prototype that Verbeek wants. Unless you're Owner Power or Jake Sanderson, most shutdown defensemen don't go early in the draft. There's a top tier of shutdown D at last year's draft:

19. D Bichsel
21. D Pickering
29. D Lamoureaux
37. RD Chesley
42. RD Warren

We're fortunate to have Warren still available to us at 42.

At pick 10, the best prospects available pre-draft were three offensive defensemen in Korchinski, Minty, and Mateychuk. Just my opinion, but if Kasper was available at 10th, then we'd take Kasper. Unfortunately, Verbeek's mentor snatched Kasper two picks ahead of us.

Korchinski went a lot higher than expected at 7th. Kasper went 8th. At 10th, the Ducks were left to choose between the two OFDs left, Nick Ritchie 2.0 in Geekie, and a plethora of offensive forward smurfs.

During the draft, we figured out one of the preferences Verbeek was after - size. Gone from the equation are the offensive forward smurfs. Nick Ritchie 2.0 is the part of the reason why Geekie wasn't picked. The choice left was between 6'1 Minty and 5'11 Mateychuk.

Before we jump forward, we need to look behind to help shape our future. Anaheim has two young OFD's in their system in 5'11 Drysdale and 5'10 Zellweger. Minty was the obvious choice. Personally, I like Minty over Korchinski and Matechuk. Korchinski stayed at the blue line of offense and Matechuk was a bit too out of control (aka overly aggressive). Minty roved just right.

Also, 6'2 LaCombe and Thrun had just spurned Verbeek by returning to their college for their senior season. This is the other part of the reason Geekie wasn't selected. Minty is a great CYA.

I know you don't believe in specialized defensemen and that probably hinders nuanced thoughts as well as pattern finding skills.

Here are a couple of quotes by Verbeek on Warren and Minty:

On defensive prospect and 2022 second-round pick Noah Warren​

Noah's got another year in junior. He's kind of been dealing with a little bit of an ankle injury, so he hasn't been able to put up points, but at the NHL level, he's going to be a big, tough defender. He'll probably play with a more skilled offensive player. At some point, looking at him, he's going to be a guy who faces the other team's best opposition and be a guy who I call a "stopper" - a guy who does not allow other offensive players to do well.​

​

On defensive prospect, and 2022 first-round pick, Pavel Mintyukov​

Pavel's really having a great year in the OHL. He's a gifted kid offensively and really smart. His hockey sense is, I would put it pretty close to excellent. He really didn't show the type of player he was at rookie camp. I think he was kind of feeling his way through it. I could see him and, and Noah being partners one day in the future. For him, there are things that he needs to improve on structurally in his defensive game, but he competes, which is really good. We're going to need to add a little more structure to his game defensively though. There are certain things in his game he won't be able to get away with at the NHL level. ​

Apparently, Verbeek sees a future pairing of an OFD (Minty) with a DFD (Warren).

Think his plan is way more nuanced than you do. We'll see.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I can't wait for us to fall exactly one spot in the lottery so that we can form feuding factions over Carlsson vs. Fantilli for a month and a half. You just know it's going to happen.

Is that how long there is between the lottery and the draft? Yikes.

 

[terranraida]

someone said in a previous thread that our odds are higher than %18 because some people on the draftboard can't go any higher, making our odds better - does anyone have that math handy?

 

[tomd]

someone said in a previous thread that our odds are higher than %18 because some people on the draftboard can't go any higher, making our odds better - does anyone have that math handy?

25.5%

2025 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

Detailed 2025 NHL lottery odds. View the current odds for each lottery spot to get specific picks. See the chances that a pick is traded based on position.

www.tankathon.com

 

[tomd]

Just wrapped up our second of what is usually three mocks drafts for the season. The Ducks were in the fourth to last position when we started this, but won the lottery. Hence the first overall pick, then selecting fourth in each subsequent round.

1-1- C Connor Bedard - nuff said

2-36 - C Charlie Stramel

Charlie Stramel - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Charlie Stramel, 2004-10-15 Rosemount, MN, USA USA. Most recently in the NCAA with Michigan State Univ.. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Charlie Stramel - 2023 NHL Draft Prospect Profile - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest News, Analysis & More

Teams in search of size and speed in the 2023 Entry Draft will love what Charlie Stramel brings to the draft table

thehockeywriters.com

2-55 (from COL) - D Etienne Morin

Étienne Morin - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Étienne Morin, 2005-03-09 Salaberry-de-Valleyfield, QC, CAN Canada. Most recently in the QMJHL with Moncton Wildcats. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Etienne Morin – 2023 NHL Draft Prospect Profile - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest News, Analysis & More

Etienne Morin is a 2023 NHL Draft Prospect to keep an eye on as he continues to gain the attention of scouts.

thehockeywriters.com

2-64 (from BOS) - G Carson Bjarnason

Carson Bjarnason at eliteprospects.com

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Carson Bjarnason, 2005-06-30 Carberry, MB, CAN Canada. Most recently in the WHL with Brandon Wheat Kings. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Carson Bjarnason – 2023 NHL Draft Prospect Profile - The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

As one of the top goaltending prospects available in the 2023 NHL Draft, Carson Bjarnason has the potential to be a top pick on Draft day.

thehockeywriters.com

3-68- D Michael Hagens

Michael Hagens - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Michael Hagens, 2005-02-18 Hauppauge, NY, USA USA. Most recently in the NCAA with Boston College. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

2023 NHL Draft Prospects Breakdown: Michael Hagens

Michael Hagens is one of the more fascinating 2023 NHL Draft prospects, using fundamental creativity to excel on defense.

www.recruitscouting.com

3-93 (from MIN) - C Brad Gardiner

Brad Gardiner - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Brad Gardiner, 2005-03-06 Aurora, ON, CAN Canada. Most recently in the OHL with Barrie Colts. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Midseason Top 50 for the 2023 NHL Entry Draft

What an unbelievable OHL Trade Deadline it was this year. We saw over a half dozen teams across the league really load up and this is going ...

ohlprospects.blogspot.com

"Gardiner is a creative and intelligent pivot who has proven to be a versatile, swiss army knife for the 67's this year. He's been everywhere from the first line to the fourth line and he's played in every situation imaginable. I really like how he plays through traffic. His game is predicated by quick touches and quick feet and for that reason he's a tough cover. He protects the puck really well by spinning off checks and keeping his feet moving. While his first step quickness is not impressive, he builds up to a solid top speed which he can use to apply pressure on the attack. I've seen him pretty high on some lists lately, like Craig Button's. I've been impressed, but I'm also still trying to get a read on the high end upside here. "


4-100- LW Nico Myatovich

Nico Myatovic - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Nico Myatovic, 2004-12-01 Prince George, BC, CAN Canada. Most recently in the AHL with San Diego Gulls. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Scouting Report: Nico Myatovic - Smaht Scouting

Smaht Scouting's Josh Tessler takes an in-depth look at 2023 NHL Draft prospect Nico Myatovic (RW, Seattle).

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5-132- LW Hannes Hellberg

Hannes Hellberg - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Hannes Hellberg, 2004-09-03 Täby, SWE Sweden. Most recently in the HockeyAllsvenskan with Nybro Vikings IF. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Haven't seen a comprehensive scouting report, but he went undrafted last year only being eligible by a few days, and then has absolutely torched J20 this year, outproducing many 2022 picks.


6-164 - LW Cole Burbidge

Cole Burbidge - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Cole Burbidge, 2005-08-26 Falmouth, NS, CAN Canada. Most recently in the QMJHL with Cape Breton Eagles. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

One of the younger players available for the draft. Strong production for a rookie in the QMJHL on a weaker club.

Stramel would be a total PV pick at 33. It would be a terrible pick but I can totally see him making it. He and Gaucher can be 2/3 of the 4th line of the future.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Stramel would be a total PV pick at 33. It would be a terrible pick but I can totally see him making it. He and Gaucher can be 2/3 of the 4th line of the future.

I thought I'd make that pick for Gaucher's sake, someone else to take on a share of the hate from weirdly obsessive dudes on internet.

 

[terranraida]

25.5%

2025 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

Detailed 2025 NHL lottery odds. View the current odds for each lottery spot to get specific picks. See the chances that a pick is traded based on position.

www.tankathon.com

a 1/4 chance at #1. fingies crossed lmao

 

[tomd]

I thought I'd make that pick for Gaucher's sake, someone else to take on a share of the hate from weirdly obsessive dudes on internet.

I'll have lots of company in a couple of years with those two!

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I'll have lots of company in a couple of years with those two!

If you are trying to get the two of them to keep you company, this is an odd way of going about it.

 

[tomd]

If you are trying to get the two of them to keep you company, this is an odd way of going about it

Seriously, what was your reasoning for picking Stramel? I'm just curious...on the surface the guy is just a big body with not much offense (sound familiar?). Seems like a guy with very little upside.

Kudos to you for putting in the work to do the entire draft even if I don't agree with that particular pick.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

I would be so pissed if we dropped to 3, so annoying after dealing with this terrible season

 

[Gliff]

I would be so pissed if we dropped to 3, so annoying after dealing with this terrible season

Pretty much the best season to drop to 3.

 

[Mr Rogers]

The most Ducks way to get the #1 pick would be for one of those lower teams to win the lotto for the 1st pick haha.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

someone said in a previous thread that our odds are higher than %18 because some people on the draftboard can't go any higher, making our odds better - does anyone have that math handy?

Yeah, essentially 12-16 can’t get #1 as they can only move up 10 spots, so you simply add their percentages to the 18.5 to get there.

Although the way I look at this system is simple:

1) the order remains exactly the same or the 12-16 “wins” the lottery: Ducks 100% chance

2) Only one team from the bottom 10 moves up: Ducks 50-50

3) Two teams from the bottom 10 make the jump: Ducks 0% and guaranteed to pick 3rd

 

[ADHB]

As they’re revealing the picks at the draft lottery (going from pick 16 down to 1), sure would be nice to see some team like the Pens or Flames “skipped.” Would sure make it a lot less stressful.