Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft (mod warning 1st post)

[Anaheim4ever]

Yeah i know its early but 2022 draft discussion started pretty quickly too last year.
So far its #1 Bedard and #2 Mitchkov but after that what are players you are interested in for the Ducks ?
I don't see Bedard falling like Wright did at all. Who will be this years Slaf and Cooley ?

Blanket warning to everyone - the season is over, the active tanking is over, and everyone needs to remember how to get along.

Polite discussions of different viewpoints is fine. Assertions as to who is a good fan, who is a bad fan, and most particularly trolling behavior is going to result in thread bans and warnings. The vast majority of posters here are great about this. There are a few of you, on both sides of this issue, who are trying to start things, and I would advise you to carefully consider if that snarky comment you just made is worth being your last post in a thread. I would advise the folks who think that making an even snarkier response to make that same assessment. Neither of your posts will be seen by anyone else for long regardless.

It is perfectly fine to not understand how anyone could root for the team to lose. It is perfectly fine to not understand how losing has strong benefits to the franchise king term. There are gaping holes in BOTH positions, that may be discussed and debated…POLITELY.

We are all Ducks fans. Time to remember that and stop being at each other’s throats.

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[dracom]

what are the odds of anyone outside of the top 4 having more potential than McTavish? i find it hard to get excited for anyone outside of those 4 (and i'm not too thrilled on Michkov for obvious reasons).

 

[Hockey Duckie]

what are the odds of anyone outside of the top 4 having more potential than McTavish? i find it hard to get excited for anyone outside of those 4 (and i'm not too thrilled on Michkov for obvious reasons).

If McTavish is your standard, then it's possible that only Bedard has more potential than McTavish. For outside the top-4, I'm high on Smith's potential because he plays like a less flashy Zegras. Many scouting reports often cite Zegras as Smith's comp. Just like Zegras, he's heading to the NCAA with his other linemates from the USNTDP in Perreault and Leonard to the same team, Boston College. Smith very well could be a one-and-done candidate. Here's his THW profile: link.

 

[goonsaredumb]

what are the odds of anyone outside of the top 4 having more potential than McTavish? i find it hard to get excited for anyone outside of those 4 (and i'm not too thrilled on Michkov for obvious reasons).

IMO I think all of the top 6 have higher/equal potential to McTavish, there are probably a few more guys outside the top 6 with higher ceilings but much higher bust potential than McTavish

 

[AngelDuck]

what are the odds of anyone outside of the top 4 having more potential than McTavish? i find it hard to get excited for anyone outside of those 4 (and i'm not too thrilled on Michkov for obvious reasons).

Smith does, he’s a number one overall contender in half the drafts in the past 10 years

 

[tomd]

Smith does, he’s a number one overall contender in half the drafts in the past 10 years

His offense is definitely outstanding but the rest of his game is still definitely a work in progress. He does cherry pick a lot and that may scare some teams.

 

[mighty Stanley Duck]

Just did a sim and Washington got #1 and Canadiens #2

PS
Now did the lotto 10 times and 2 times got #1 and 2 times #2 which is twice our odds. Now if we don't luck out in the top 2 it might be because of me using our luck in these pointless simulations

I did a sim lottery also ten times, and I got in this order 4,5,5,6,5,6,5,6,6,5...are odds really bigger for us getting 5th and 6th pick, rather than 4th...?

 

[Kalv]

I did a sim lottery also ten times, and I got in this order 4,5,5,6,5,6,5,6,6,5...are odds really bigger for us getting 5th and 6th pick, rather than 4th...?

Yes. It has been posted here many times. The odds of us getting 4th,(if we finish 4th) are only 15%. We'll most likely pick 5th with 45% and next likely outcome is 6th. About 10% for each of 1st & 2nd and cannot pick 3rd

 

[Rasp]

This is The Athletic consensus ranking comparing Pronman, Wheeler and McKenzie. Pronman and Wheeler was March rankings and McKenzie was his January ranking.

Top 5 is mostly set but it gets wild after that. Hopefully things settle down after the season and we get a cleaner consensus.

 

[mighty Stanley Duck]

Yes. It has been posted here many times. The odds of us getting 4th,(if we finish 4th) are only 15%. We'll most likely pick 5th with 45% and next likely outcome is 6th. About 10% for each of 1st & 2nd and cannot pick 3rd

Then we have no choice, we have to lose remaining games, all this suckfest for Dvorsky or Benson...thanks but no thanks.

 

[Kalv]

Then we have no choice, we have to lose remaining games, all this suckfest for Dvorsky or Benson...thanks but no thanks.

I get your point but as much as we have sucked this year, I think most people that are calling for us to tank out have not seen the top-3 teams' games or rosters. They're at their own level of suck, despite their goal differentials being slightly better.

We are what we are. There is a chance we climb up now with the injuries (I hope whatever Terry's family is going through will end up ok).

PS
In past years teams have climbed from 5th (2022), 3rd (2021), 4th (2020), 6th (2019), 11th (2018), 13th (2017), and 6th (2016) to grab the 2nd overall.
Who got the 1st overall? 1st (2022), 1st (2021), 12th (2020), 3rd (2019), 1st (2018), 5th (2017), 1st (2016). Right now the odds are a bit bigger than in some of those past years tho.

But still, we need to remember that the lottery odds are just odds and not a guarantee. We have to play it out and see how it goes but blatant tanking can piss off your players and staff (they are playing for their own pride and well, jobs), and you can still lose out on the lottery.

 

[AngelDuck]

I disagree that the other 3 teams look worse than we do and the numbers don’t back that statement up.The bottom 4 is about equal in terms of sucktitude right now

Gibson is the big difference maker in the standings

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

I sound contracting here lol, but if we drop out of the big four, would love to take a crack at Brayden Yager.

Seen a few comps and definitely would be interested in him, especially being a Right handed centerman

 

[Rasp]

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Will Smith had a 3-point night (2g, 1a). That puts him at 103 points with 41 goals in only 50 USDP games. Cooley, last year's #3 overall, had 75 points with 27 goals in 51 USDP games. Yes, Smith is below the top-4, but Smith would garner that #1 overall projection in the 2022 draft. Also, with Smith going to the NCAA, he'll learn how to properly bulk up for at least a year as well as face older, stronger competition.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

PS
In past years teams have climbed from 5th (2022), 3rd (2021), 4th (2020), 6th (2019), 11th (2018), 13th (2017), and 6th (2016) to grab the 2nd overall.
Who got the 1st overall? 1st (2022), 1st (2021), 12th (2020), 3rd (2019), 1st (2018), 5th (2017), 1st (2016). Right now the odds are a bit bigger than in some of those past years tho.

But still, we need to remember that the lottery odds are just odds and not a guarantee. We have to play it out and see how it goes but blatant tanking can piss off your players and staff (they are playing for their own pride and well, jobs), and you can still lose out on the lottery.

Lottery rules have been evolving.

For the 2021 draft, the lottery draws went from three to two draws. Two more new rules started in the 2022 draft: a team can only jump 10 spots and a team can only win the lottery (moving to 1 or 2) twice in a five year period. The reduction of a draw and reduction of lottery teams involved has been more beneficial to the tank teams, albeit still a small sample.

​

NHL​	Draft​	Odds​	​	​
Pick​	2019​	2020​	2021​	2022​
1​	18.5​	18.5​	16.6​	25.5​
2​	13.5​	13.5​	12.1​	13.5​
3​	11.5​	11.5​	10.3​	11.5​
4​	9.5​	9.5​	10.3​	9.5​
5​	8.5​	8.5​	8.5​	8.5​
6​	7.5​	7.5​	7.6​	7.5​
7​	6.5​	6.5​	6.7​	6.5​
8​	6​	6​	5.8​	6​
9​	5​	5​	5.4​	5​
10​	3.5​	3.5​	4.5​	3.5​
11​	3​	3​	3.1​	3​
12​	2.5​	2.5​	2.7​	x​
13​	2​	2​	2.2​	x​
14​	1.5​	1.5​	1.8​	x​
15​	1​	1​	1.4​	x​
16​	x​	x​	1​	x​

Between 2011-2020, only two teams have retained the 1st overall pick. The last two seasons, the top pick was retained by worst team. Seeing that the worst team has significantly improved its percentage for winning starting from 2022, then it increases the likeliness that the worst team will retain the #1 moving forward.

If that pattern holds true, then the most the Ducks can drop is one spot. There's still hope the Ducks can win #1 overall.

The worst spot to be in is the #2 spot. Since the three draw lottery started in 2016 to today, not a single team has retained the #2 spot and only moved down. Anaheim fell victim in the 2021 draft. NHL.com has tracked it and it's scary to be the second worst team going into the lottery in a multi-draw lottery system.

 

[Kalv]

Lottery rules have been evolving.

For the 2021 draft, the lottery draws went from three to two draws. Two more new rules started in the 2022 draft: a team can only jump 10 spots and a team can only win the lottery (moving to 1 or 2) twice in a five year period. The reduction of a draw and reduction of lottery teams involved has been more beneficial to the tank teams, albeit still a small sample.

​

NHL​	Draft​	Odds​	​	​
Pick​	​ 2019​	​ 2020​	​ 2021​	2022​
​ 1​	​ 18.5​	​ 18.5​	​ 16.6​	​ 25.5​
​ 2​	​ 13.5​	​ 13.5​	​ 12.1​	​ 13.5​
​ 3​	​ 11.5​	​ 11.5​	​ 10.3​	​ 11.5​
​ 4​	​ 9.5​	​ 9.5​	​ 10.3​	​ 9.5​
​ 5​	​ 8.5​	​ 8.5​	​ 8.5​	​ 8.5​
​ 6​	​ 7.5​	​ 7.5​	​ 7.6​	​ 7.5​
​ 7​	​ 6.5​	​ 6.5​	​ 6.7​	​ 6.5​
​ 8​	​ 6​	​ 6​	​ 5.8​	​ 6​
​ 9​	​ 5​	​ 5​	​ 5.4​	​ 5​
​ 10​	​ 3.5​	​ 3.5​	​ 4.5​	​ 3.5​
​ 11​	​ 3​	​ 3​	​ 3.1​	​ 3​
​ 12​	​ 2.5​	​ 2.5​	​ 2.7​	x​
​ 13​	​ 2​	​ 2​	​ 2.2​	x​
​ 14​	​ 1.5​	​ 1.5​	​ 1.8​	x​
​ 15​	​ 1​	​ 1​	​ 1.4​	x​
​ 16​	x​	x​	​ 1​	x​

Between 2011-2020, only two teams have retained the 1st overall pick. The last two seasons, the top pick was retained by worst team. Seeing that the worst team has significantly improved its percentage for winning starting from 2022, then it increases the likeliness that the worst team will retain the #1 moving forward.

If that pattern holds true, then the most the Ducks can drop is one spot. There's still hope the Ducks can win #1 overall.

The worst spot to be in is the #2 spot. Since the three draw lottery started in 2016 to today, not a single team has retained the #2 spot and only moved down. Anaheim fell victim in the 2021 draft. NHL.com has tracked it and it's scary to be the second worst team going into the lottery in a multi-draw lottery system.

Yup, the odds now are increased for the worst team. Yet, still their far more likeliest pick this year will be #3 overall. I think that's an interesting take in the lottery. For the worst team it's 25% they pick #1, 19% that they pick #2 and 56% they pick #3.

It's actually super interesting to calculate these things in my head

 

[AngelDuck]

He’s nasty. This draft is ridiculous

 

[Kalv]

He’s nasty. This draft is ridiculous

I have not seen much of him but I saw this video and it's super negative about him

Might be just an off-game but if this is how he likes to play, I don't see Verbeek being too enthusiastic about him:

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Yup, the odds now are increased for the worst team. Yet, still their far more likeliest pick this year will be #3 overall. I think that's an interesting take in the lottery. For the worst team it's 25% they pick #1, 19% that they pick #2 and 56% they pick #3.

It's actually super interesting to calculate these things in my head

The most a team can move down is two spots with the new lottery rules. That capping is the result of missing out. There isn't a lottery draw for #3 overall. If there were no capping, then the odds will continue to decrease.

2022 lottery rules (two draws)
100% chance - winning 1st pct - winning 2nd pct = result of not winning first or second.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I have not seen much of him but I saw this video and it's super negative about him

Might be just an off-game but if this is how he likes to play, I don't see Verbeek being too enthusiastic about him:

I watched about 7 minutes of the video and the scout contradicts himself. One clip the author says, "He's always on the blue line." and the next shifts you see him backcheck. Another clip the author says, "He doesn't do any checking." and shifts later he identifies Smith checking. It's a micro scouting instead of a combo of micro and macro scouting.

I'd rather look at EP's scouting. Here's one that covers 4 players who project to be 1st rounders: Smith, Perreault, Leonard, and Perron.


This next clip is from Blue Chip Prospect that covers only Smith.


Smith is opportunistic, but if that opportunity isn't there, then he comes back to the puck. EP calls that trait anticipation. He's an offensive prospect like Zegras and Zegras is still learning how to backcheck and play defense in his third season in the NHL. Yet, Zegras is delivering that offense at a high clip since he's got here and hasn't looked back. Currently, Z is our top scorer for the season.

 

[tomd]

I have not seen much of him but I saw this video and it's super negative about him

Might be just an off-game but if this is how he likes to play, I don't see Verbeek being too enthusiastic about him:

That was my thought as well when I saw the video a day or two ago. Scouts are going to have to determine if he is getting the majority of his points the "wrong" way and whether he can be productive at higher levels with his current style. The talent is there though.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

​

Between 2011-2020, only two teams have retained the 1st overall pick. The last two seasons, the top pick was retained by worst team. Seeing that the worst team has significantly improved its percentage for winning starting from 2022, then it increases the likeliness that the worst team will retain the #1 moving forward.

If that pattern holds true, then the most the Ducks can drop is one spot. There's still hope the Ducks can win #1 overall.

The worst spot to be in is the #2 spot. Since the three draw lottery started in 2016 to today, not a single team has retained the #2 spot and only moved down. Anaheim fell victim in the 2021 draft. NHL.com has tracked it and it's scary to be the second worst team going into the lottery in a multi-draw lottery system.

You do realize that past history has no bearing on the outcome of the draw each year? The ping pong balls have no memory.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

You do realize that past history has no bearing on the outcome of the draw each year? The ping pong balls have no memory.

You do realize the lottery's been amended with changes the odds. We're doing two lottery draws and not three, which means less chaos. Also, since there's only 11 teams that can vie for the top spot and the remaining five odds goes to the worst team, it again changes the odds.

Otherwise, why make any changes at all since ping pong balls have no memory?

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

You do realize the lottery's been amended with changes the odds. We're doing two lottery draws and not three, which means less chaos. Also, since there's only 11 teams that can vie for the top spot and the remaining five odds goes to the worst team, it again changes the odds.

Otherwise, why make any changes at all since ping pong balls have no memory?

The only chaos is you trying to bring in previous rules that have zero bearing on this year's drawing. Yes, the odds are different from previous years. So what? The past has no bearing on what will happen this year.

Here's your quote..."If that pattern holds true, then the most the Ducks can drop is one spot."

The odds are what they are. The Ducks can drop two spots regardless of "patterns". Historical patterns are meaningless. Who won what last year is meaningless. How many times the worst team picked first or not is meaningless. It doesn't matter what any odds used to be.

The stats for this years drawing are exactly what they are and nothing in the past is going improve or decrease anybody's odds this year. It's really that simple. Sometimes you just don't need 27 8x10 color glossy photographs with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one explaining the situation.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The only chaos is you trying to bring in previous rules that have zero bearing on this year's drawing. Yes, the odds are different from previous years. So what? The past has no bearing on what will happen this year.

Here's your quote..."If that pattern holds true, then the most the Ducks can drop is one spot."

The odds are what they are. The Ducks can drop two spots regardless of "patterns". Historical patterns are meaningless. Who won what last year is meaningless. How many times the worst team picked first or not is meaningless. It doesn't matter what any odds used to be.

The stats for this years drawing are exactly what they are and nothing in the past is going improve or decrease anybody's odds this year. It's really that simple. Sometimes you just don't need 27 8x10 color glossy photographs with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one explaining the situation.

Clearly, you don't understand the word " if ". Clearly you don't understand changing rules can augment odds. Clearly, you believe everything I wrote is definitive. smh