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Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft (mod warning 1st post)

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Anaheim4ever

Anaheim4ever

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Jun 15, 2017
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Yeah i know its early but 2022 draft discussion started pretty quickly too last year.
So far its #1 Bedard and #2 Mitchkov but after that what are players you are interested in for the Ducks ?
I don't see Bedard falling like Wright did at all. Who will be this years Slaf and Cooley ?

Ducks DVM said:
Blanket warning to everyone - the season is over, the active tanking is over, and everyone needs to remember how to get along.

Polite discussions of different viewpoints is fine. Assertions as to who is a good fan, who is a bad fan, and most particularly trolling behavior is going to result in thread bans and warnings. The vast majority of posters here are great about this. There are a few of you, on both sides of this issue, who are trying to start things, and I would advise you to carefully consider if that snarky comment you just made is worth being your last post in a thread. I would advise the folks who think that making an even snarkier response to make that same assessment. Neither of your posts will be seen by anyone else for long regardless.

It is perfectly fine to not understand how anyone could root for the team to lose. It is perfectly fine to not understand how losing has strong benefits to the franchise king term. There are gaping holes in BOTH positions, that may be discussed and debated…POLITELY.

We are all Ducks fans. Time to remember that and stop being at each other’s throats.
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Click to read more...
 
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We know the top-4/5 for next season. It's becoming monotonous. How about we figure out who will be there with our first pick in the 2nd round. Last time we were in this high was in 2021, where we had a choice between D Zellweger and C Aaty Ratu. We have three 2nd round picks this year, ours, the Avs, and Bruins.

Central Scouting 2023 prelim summer grade grouping (Oct 25): link

NHL.com, six more players updated with A grades (Nov 21): link

Wheeler's top-64 Nov ranking (the Athletic sub required): link

Sporting News top-32: link

MyNHLdraft, round 1: link

Tankathon, round 1: link

the Hockey News, top-4: link


There seems to be a buzz around WHL's RHD Lukas Dragicevic. The 6'2 and 181 lbs defenseman leads his team in scoring with 29 points (7g + 22a), of which he produced 12 points on the PP (3g + 9a). I doubt he'll be in the 2nd round and actually rise up fast. We need Klingberg to find his scoring touch again so we can get another first round pick!
 
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Hockey Duckie said:
There seems to be a buzz around WHL's RHD Lukas Dragicevic. The 6'2 and 181 lbs defenseman leads his team in scoring with 29 points (7g + 22a), of which he produced 12 points on the PP (3g + 9a). I doubt he'll be in the 2nd round and actually rise up fast. We need Klingberg to find his scoring touch again so we can get another first round pick!
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Yeah gotta think with how well Dragicevic is playing this year if he keeps it up he ends up being taken in that 10-20 range, I'd hope if we can land another 1st from Klingberg and he's on the board in that range that we would package that first and one or two of our later picks to move up and secure him, getting him plus Bedard/Michkov/Fantilli/Carlsson that we likely get with our first pick would make our draft a complete success not even accounting for whatever late round gems Madden always manages to secure.
 
Anaheim4ever said:
Will Smith and in his first NHL fight he slaps his opponent !
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Wouldn’t he slap an unsuspecting player on the bench or something?

The Mighty Duck Man said:
What's one persistent bad habit that can be solely attributed to Dallas Eakins' 113 games behind the Oilers bench?
Click to expand...
Horrible and weak coverage in front of our goalies

Piss poor passing/receiving
 
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The past 2 drafts the worst overall team has won the #1 pick, so that probably means this year 2nd or 3rd best odds will win it. So Chicago getting Bedard seems like a real risk.
 
gilfaizon said:
Thats not how odds work
Click to expand...

It kinda depends on how you look at it. While each draft lottery is its own thing and previous lotteries have no effect on the current lottery, you can use probability to calculate the odds of the dead last team winning the lottery 3 times in a row.

Winning 1OVA for the last overall team is a 25.5% chance.

The probability of it happening two years in a row is .255 * .255 = .065025 or 6.5%~

The probability of it happening 3 years in a row is .255 * .255 * .255 = 0.016581375 or 1.66%~

My math on this is a bit shaky if anyone wants to check me, lol.
 
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ohcomeonref said:
It kinda depends on how you look at it. While each draft lottery is its own thing and previous lotteries have no effect on the current lottery, you can use probability to calculate the odds of the dead last team winning the lottery 3 times in a row.

Winning 1OVA for the last overall team is a 25.5% chance.

The probability of it happening two years in a row is .255 * .255 = .065025 or 6.5%~

The probability of it happening 3 years in a row is .255 * .255 * .255 = 0.016581375 or 1.66%~

My math on this is a bit shaky if anyone wants to check me, lol.
Click to expand...
you're absolutely right. there is no conditional aspect to it, but there is regression to the mean over time. it would be surprising if we got it, simply because we have a 75% chance of not getting it.
 
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ohcomeonref said:
It kinda depends on how you look at it. While each draft lottery is its own thing and previous lotteries have no effect on the current lottery, you can use probability to calculate the odds of the dead last team winning the lottery 3 times in a row.

Winning 1OVA for the last overall team is a 25.5% chance.

The probability of it happening two years in a row is .255 * .255 = .065025 or 6.5%~

The probability of it happening 3 years in a row is .255 * .255 * .255 = 0.016581375 or 1.66%~

My math on this is a bit shaky if anyone wants to check me, lol.
Click to expand...
There is some overlap as any team placed 12 or higher if they win doesn't move up to first. So we could in fact not win the lottery and still pick 1st oa. Which isn't quite the same as a straight 25 5% to win the lottery
 
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DavidBL said:
There is some overlap as any team placed 12 or higher if they win doesn't move up to first. So we could in fact not win the lottery and still pick 1st oa. Which isn't quite the same as a straight 25 5% to win the lottery
Click to expand...

The new rule implemented in the 2021 draft was the highest a team can move up is 10 spots higher.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH]Draft[/TH]
[TH]Odds[/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pick[/TD]
[TD]Odds to win #1[/TD]
[TD]Odds to win #1 with handicap[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]18.5%[/TD]
[TD]25.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]13.5%[/TD]
[TD]13.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]11.5%[/TD]
[TD]11.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]9.5%[/TD]
[TD]9.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]8.8%[/TD]
[TD]8.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]7.5%[/TD]
[TD]7.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]6.5%[/TD]
[TD]6.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]6.0%[/TD]
[TD]6.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]5.0%[/TD]
[TD]5.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]3.5%[/TD]
[TD]3.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]3.0%[/TD]
[TD]3.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]2.5%[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]2.0%[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]1.2%[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]0.5%[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]0.5%[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

If pick 12 - 16 wins the lottery for 1st overall, then there is no movement in the top 11. That's why the odds from picks 12-16 are added to pick #1 to get 25.5% of landing the first round pick.
 
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Hockey Duckie said:
The new rule implemented in the 2021 draft was the highest a team can move up is 10 spots higher.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH]Draft[/TH]
[TH]Odds[/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pick[/TD]
[TD]Odds to win #1[/TD]
[TD]Odds to win #1 with handicap[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]18.5%[/TD]
[TD]25.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]13.5%[/TD]
[TD]13.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]11.5%[/TD]
[TD]11.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]9.5%[/TD]
[TD]9.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]8.8%[/TD]
[TD]8.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]7.5%[/TD]
[TD]7.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]6.5%[/TD]
[TD]6.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]6.0%[/TD]
[TD]6.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]5.0%[/TD]
[TD]5.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]3.5%[/TD]
[TD]3.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]3.0%[/TD]
[TD]3.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]2.5%[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]2.0%[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]1.2%[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]0.5%[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]0.5%[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

If pick 12 - 16 wins the lottery for 1st overall, then there is no movement in the top 11. That's why the odds from picks 12-16 are added to pick #1 to get 25.5% of landing the first round pick.
Click to expand...
I know. The 25.5% is the odds of picking 1st overall not winning the lottery. The worst team won the lottery the last 2 years. So the math would actually look like .185*.185*.185+.07. That's the chances of the worst team actually winning the lottery 3 years in a row + the chances of one of the later teams winning that wouldn't push the worst team down.

Edit: that math is 7.6% for the last place team to pick 1st over this year. Which is actually less likely to happen than team 2-5 winning the lottery. Ie. It is less likely for the last play team to draft first overall 3 years in a row than 2nd -5th winning it in one year.
 
That's not how math works. The worst team in the league has the exact same chance of winning the lottery as it did last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.

Yes, over time there will be a regression to the mean... but that comes into play after hundreds or thousands of draws, not 3.
 
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ADHB said:
That's not how math works. The worst team in the league has the exact same chance of winning the lottery as it did last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.

Yes, over time there will be a regression to the mean... but that comes into play after hundreds or thousands of draws, not 3.
Click to expand...
Basically this.
 
Hard to be too concerned with the lottery at this point since even if we drop the max amount of slots it looks like we might still get the best player of our rebuild.
 
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I would like Michkov at #3 or #4 but not #2.
Fantili is a lock for #2.

Where do you place Michkov on the Ducks top6 because he's small ? With McTavish or Zegras ?

Michkov/McTavish/Terry or Gaucher/Zegras/Michkov

To me its more about having a guaranteed top3 pick by finishing dead last in the league than what happens in the lottery. I just get bad feeling the Ducks lottery luck will drop them to #3 overall lol.
 
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Anaheim4ever said:
I would like Michkov at #3 or #4 but not #2.
Fantili is a lock for #2.

Where do you place Michkov on the Ducks top6 because he's small ? With McTavish or Zegras ?

Michkov/McTavish/Terry or Gaucher/Zegras/Michkov

To me its more about having a guaranteed top3 pick by finishing dead last in the league than what happens in the lottery. I just get bad feeling the Ducks lottery luck will drop them to #3 overall lol.
Click to expand...
Michkov is a tank.
 
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Static said:
Michkov is the wildcard. If we draft third I have no idea what the risk assessment will be, but he'd comfortably be the best prospect we have drafted since kariya.
Click to expand...

The Hockey News 2023 Draft Stock Watch:

STOCK DOWN: MATVEI MICHKOV, RW, SKA-NEVA ST. PETERSBURG (VHL)​

It’s not that Michkov has been bad. It’s certainly not even that his contract in Russia will keep him there for a couple of years after he’s drafted. The reason Michkov has fallen down the board a bit is that he is letting some bad habits and low-danger tendencies creep into his game. The young Russian is still scoring quite a bit, which is a great sign, but he is opting for so many low-danger shots from the boards or deciding to play on the perimeter without the urgency when it comes to attacking the middle.​
​
Michkov is undoubtedly one of the most talented players in his age group. He should and likely will be a top-five pick when the draft rolls around in June. He’s just slowly working himself out of the “top-two lock” conversation that made him the most likely to challenge Connor Bedard at No. 1.​

MyNHLDraft mock draft (Nov 29th)

1. C Bedard (5'9) ... will probably play wing at NHL level​
2. C Fantilli (6'3)​
3. C Carlsson (5'3) EDIT: 6'3!!!! damned fingers!​
4. LW Sale (6'1)​
5. RW MIchkov (5'10)​

It's weird to see yet another projected top pick start sliding, but the seeds are sown in early.
 
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Hockey Duckie said:
MyNHLDraft mock draft (Nov 29th)

1. C Bedard (5'9) ... will probably play wing at NHL level​
2. C Fantilli (6'3)​
3. C Carlsson (5'3)​
4. LW Sale (6'1)​
5. RW MIchkov (5'10)​

It's weird to see yet another projected top pick start sliding, but the seeds are sown in early.
Click to expand...
Damn has Sale really risen that much? he was a guy I had my eye on last year as someone to pick if we ended up in the 5-10 range this year but I know some lists had him in the 10-20 range
 
Smirnov2Chistov said:
The only thing that stops be from taking Michkov at 2 is his contract.
Click to expand...

From an article on the Athletic, Dec 2021:

SKA announced that Michkov had signed an extension with the team through the 2026 season.​
​
Another executive downplayed the caution of using a high pick on a player like Michkov. “If you’re in a position to pick him (with a top selection), you likely won’t be winning anything until his KHL contract is over anyways.”​
​
Another executive provided a counterpoint. “When you’re bad, you don’t need players in three years or more, you need them soon.”​

Verbeek has stated before that he's rather have an overripen prospect and Michkov started playing in the KHL this season, his D+0 season.

Things would be much simpler if we landed the #1 pick overall.
 
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