2023 NHL Draft June 28 and 29, Nashville, TN (Selections - 13, 39, 45, 86, 109, 141, 173, 205)

[Der Jaeger]

Agreed.

HP didn’t have Willander in the 1st round in January, which is interesting. Wonder if that changes.

I think it will, a lot has happened since then.

 

[Chainshot]

Jacob Fowler

It's a good year for goalies -

Augustine, Hrabal, Fowler, Bjarnasson, Gajan, Milic, Suchanek, Ratzlaff from NA, Dybal, Hellenmo, Khazayev, Jatkola, Blomquist, even Urban from the European leagues. They might be able to get someone with less questions than Leinonen has left us with after this year.

 

[Fjordy]

Brief facts from Simashev's interview:

- until the age of 11 was the center

- favorite NHL defenseman Lidstrom

- plays basketball well (if not for hockey, he would probably become a basketball player)

- reads a lot of books

- loves American football

- loves chess, plays it every day (played chess at an early age)

- working with a psychologist

- believes that high hockey IQ must be constantly developed and trained

 

[Ace]

There are 11 players I’d be very happy with at 13. Or…ridiculously happy if something impossible happened I guess... The 8 forwards have no shot of being there. But I’d bet one of Simashev/Willander will.

Bedard
Michkov
Fantilli
Carlsson
Smith
Benson
Dvorsky
Leonard
Simashev
Reinbacher
Willander

If I had to expand it to 2 more players to guarantee one was there at 13….it’s not easy.

 

[dickiedunnwrotethis]

There are 11 players I’d be very happy with at 13. Or…ridiculously happy if something impossible happened I guess... The 8 forwards have no shot of being there. But I’d bet one of Simashev/Willander will.

Bedard
Michkov
Fantilli
Carlsson
Smith
Benson
Dvorsky
Leonard
Simashev
Reinbacher
Willander

If I had to expand it to 2 more players to guarantee one was there at 13….it’s not easy.

Geekie went at 11 last year. Someone will bet on Barlow or Wood and push one of Simashev or Willander down. Getting more nervous though that it won't be Simashev.

 

[Zman5778]

Geekie went at 11 last year. Someone will bet on Barlow or Wood and push one of Simashev or Willander down. Getting more nervous though that it won't be Simashev.

I have this hunch that someone above us is going to fall in love with what ASP can bring and take him ahead of us.....which would push another good prospect down to us.

 

[Ace]

I have this hunch that someone above us is going to fall in love with what ASP can bring and take him ahead of us.....which would push another good prospect down to us.

That’s what I’m hoping too.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think it’ll be Willander.

 

[Slangston]

I think it’ll be Willander.

As our pick?

 

[tsujimoto74]

Brief facts from Simashev's interview:

- until the age of 11 was the center

- favorite NHL defenseman Lidstrom

- plays basketball well (if not for hockey, he would probably become a basketball player)

- reads a lot of books

- loves American football

- loves chess, plays it every day (played chess at an early age)

- working with a psychologist

- believes that high hockey IQ must be constantly developed and trained

Get this nerd in Buffalo.

 

[Der Jaeger]

As our pick?

Yes

 

[10robinho10]

2023 WJC Best goalie Adam Gajan revealed the biggest interest from this 5 teams. He also talked about NHL Scouting Combine and next season

 

[Chainshot]

2023 WJC Best goalie Adam Gajan revealed the biggest interest from this 5 teams. He also talked about NHL Scouting Combine and next season

"I've already spoken to over 25 teams, so there's only a few left that haven't contacted me yet. I definitely feel the greatest interest from Chicago, then from Nashville. However, there are also numerous debates with Arizona, Los Angeles and New Jersey," he confided.

Seems like everyone will have him in.

 

[Jim Bob]

But who is defense to be a good value? I doubt that Jokiharju or Johnson will give us #7 and Michkov.

It all comes down to what Philly feels is the gap in talent between 7 & 13. Ryan Johnson might be enough for Philly to move back. He might not be.

But, if people want to throw ideas out there, I think giving up young players or prospects plus 13 is way more likely to move the needle than merely picks.

 

[Jim Bob]

https://theathletic.com/4538998/2023/05/30/nhl-draft-rankings-2023-bedard-pronman/

I like the new layout for the rankings.

The Sabres will likely get a guy from one of these two tiers at 13:

 

[paulmm3]

Fine with whoever our scouts feel is BPA at 13 assuming it's not totally out of left field. We have made some possibly regrettable mid first round reaches vs consensus the last two years with Rosen over Othmann and Ostlund over Kemell although the jury is still out obviously.

My two dream scenarios involve us getting Matt Savoie's linemate or who I think is the second best player to come out since Dahlin in Michkov. If Michkov falls to 7, the draft calculator I just ran says 13 + 39 could theoretically get us a trade up. Maybe. Assuming us getting Michkov is borderline impossible, if Zach Benson falls I think he brings us some extra value due to the chemistry with Savoie.

 

[HOOats]

Simashev appears to be a classic late riser, perhaps supercharged by the Russian factor. Our board mock pick looks pretty sharp just a week later. Hopefully he's an option for us at 13.

Any chance we're looking at But? I know Pronman has him higher than most if not all, but the combination of size and skill is rare. Some have assumed that Wood would be the "surprise" top 10 big/skilled pick, but maybe it's But. I imagine our Russian scout Ruslan Pechonkin has decent pull at the draft table after some nice base hits the last two years.

 

[Ace]

Simashev appears to be a classic late riser, perhaps supercharged by the Russian factor. Our board mock pick looks pretty sharp just a week later. Hopefully he's an option for us at 13.

Any chance we're looking at But? I know Pronman has him higher than most if not all, but the combination of size and skill is rare. Some have assumed that Wood would be the "surprise" top 10 big/skilled pick, but maybe it's But. I imagine our Russian scout Ruslan Pechonkin has decent pull in at the draft table after some nice base hits the last two years.

But is one of the guys in my group after the 11 I’d be really happy with where I can’t figure out who the next two are. It’s intriguing. I could see a scenario happening where they are at 13 and the table is being pounded for But.

Adams LOVES forwards that can shoot and score from range…and one that does that at 6’5 has to be something they‘d look at.

 

[Ace]

I don’t know how everyone else is handling it…or how they’re handling it…but I’ve almost completely removed the Russian factor when I look at the Sabres potential board. I can easily see Simashev and But being players they’d have ranked above their spot at 13 (and above where consensus rankings have them. And given the success at signing their prospects under this regime…I’ve decided to factor it in at near 0.

They could have these guys rated like Pronman does and not care at all about the Russian factor anymore. And that makes them a much more likely pick imo. It’s one thing to have a 1st round grade on Neuchev and be thrilled when he falls to round 3. They could easily have Simashev as the best D in the class. At 13 you do it imo. But is harder for me to figure out how they’d feel about him (because I’d bet they love Simashev) but they could have him extremely high too. High enough that he’s their highest on the board at 13? Maybe. He’s huge and can score. Who doesn’t want that?

 

[Jim Bob]

Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey

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Methodology of building a trade-data-driven NHL Draft pick value chart

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A few parting thoughts​

1. Few trades overall. It was notable to me that over a span of 13 years, there were only 184 pick-for-pick trades in my sample. NHL teams are fairly conservative and comfortable “sticking and picking” when it comes to the entry draft.

2. No top-of-the-draft pick swaps. As noted above, I was surprised that since the 2008-09 season there had been no pick-for-pick swaps in the top-ten. Going farther back, there are examples of such trades and the returns for trading down were typically exorbitant. Qualitatively, this supports my decision to upwardly adjust the value of top-10 picks in my model. That said, again, the values I have ascribed to trades in the top 10 should be taken with a fair amount of salt.

3. It is costly to move up. The decline in trade value is steep near the top of the draft; this makes it “costly” for teams trying to move up. For example, a move up of just six or seven picks in the high second round could cost a team its third-round pick. Perhaps as a result, there were very few trades in which a team climbed more than a dozen spots in the draft.

4. Overall trade behavior may not have changed very much since 2006. This is something I want to look at more closely, but the trade value chart I discerned is not entirely different from the chart developed by Eric Tulsky looking at trades from 2006-12. This chart is a little steeper, i.e. more costly to move up, but it is not different in kind. This is just one data point, but it suggests to me that there has not been a seismic change in how teams look at the value of draft picks over the last 15 years.

His chart says it would take 17, 39, and 86 to move up to 7. But, he also talks about how GMs tend to stick and pick in the top 10...

 

[Ace]

Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey

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Methodology of building a trade-data-driven NHL Draft pick value chart

Sound Of Hockey is your new home for Seattle hockey news, coverage, and analysis. NHL | Seattle Kraken | WHL | Seattle Hockey Community

soundofhockey.com

His chart says it would take 17, 39, and 86 to move up to 7. But, he also talks about how GMs tend to stick and pick in the top 10...

Michkov makes things a bit sticky. If he falls to 7 and your owner says no…and you have him as a top 3 player…the question could become reaching down a tier or getting a better value for the pick in trade…and maybe still drafting out of the same tier anyway. A smart GM past like…4 would be way more open to trade than normal if they can’t/won’t take Michkov. After that point you’re only hurting the value of your pick twice. Once by not taking the clear best player…and once by not getting better value in trade than what you’re getting from who you do pick.

I know most GMs are very bad at value so it doesn’t matter.

 

[Fjordy]

Adams LOVES forwards that can shoot and score from range…and one that does that at 6’5 has to be something they‘d look at.

But did not take Kemell.

 

[Ace]

But did not take Kemell.

and I don’t blame him. Of all the players I watched last draft year Kemell was the hardest to figure out. More so even than Lambert. He scores…and he has great shots…but he unleashes some of the dumbest shot selection I’ve ever seen. He was an infuriating player to watch. You have to weigh his goal total against how many possessions he just throws away. Guy is going to score 500 goals and be a -450

 

[Fjordy]

Pronman comparisons:

1. Connor Bedard (comparable - David Pastrnak)

2. Adam Fantilli (comparable - Jonathan Toews)

3. Matvey Michkov (comparable - Nikita Kucherov)

4. Leo Karlsson (comparable - Tomas Hertl)

5. Will Smith (comparable - Evgeny Kuznetsov)

6. David Reinbacher (comparable - Brett Pesce)

7. Nate Danielson (comparable - Elias Lindholm)

8. Dalibor Dvorsky (comparable - William Karlsson)

9. Daniil But (comparable - Alex Tuch)

10. Dmitry Simashev (comparable - Adam Larsson)

 

[Zman5778]

His chart says it would take 17, 39, and 86 to move up to 7. But, he also talks about how GMs tend to stick and pick in the top 10...

FWIW, if Michkov was still on the board at 7......I do 13 and both of our 2nds all day. Dude could be that good when he comes over. Yeah, we'd miss out on replenishing our D prospects some....but IMO Michkov would be worth it.