2023 Free Agency/UFA Targets

[Henkka]

Tyler Bertuzzi estimations from evolving-hockey:
4 years, ~5.5M
5-6-7 years, ~6.1M

Dylan Larkin 8-year estimation:
~9.14M
Nice, seems like Yzerman got shaved ~440k off from this...

Filip Hronek RFA estensions:
2-3-4 years, ~5.2M - 5.5M
5-6-7 years, ~6.0M - 6.6M

Lucas Raymond RFA extensions:
3-year bridge, ~4.7M
4-5 years, ~5.0M - 5.4M
6-7 years, ~5.9M - 6.6M
8 years, ~7.1M

Moritz Seider RFA extensions:
3-year bridge, ~5.6M
4-5-6-7 years, ~6.1M - 6.9M
8 years, ~8.1M

Alex DeBrincat RFA extension
1-year quali offer 9.0M
3-4-5 years, ~7.3M - 7.7M
6-7 years, ~8.0M - 8.2M

Joe Veleno RFA extension
2 years, ~1.4M

Jeremy Swayman, RFA extensions:
2-3 years ~4.2M
4-5-6 years, ~4.8M

If you want to hear these from other players, please ask...

 

[Henkka]

LW 33y Alex Killorn UFA
2-3 years, ~5.7M

C 32y Ryan O'Reilly UFA
2-3-4 years, ~5.1M - 5.9M

C 28y JT Compher UFA
4-5 years, ~5.5M - 5.7M
6-7 years, ~6.0M

RD 28y Damon Severson UFA
4-5-6-7 years, 5.9M - 6.2M

RD 28y Matt Dumba UFA
3-4-5 years, ~5.1M - 5.4M
6-7-8 years, ~6.2M - 6.9M

RD 30y Scott Mayfield UFA
2-3 years, ~4.1M - 4.3M
4-5 years, ~4.6M - 4.9M

 

[Detroit Knights]

Alex DeBrincat RFA extension
1-year quali offer 9.0M
3-4-5 years, ~7.3M - 7.7M
6-7 years, ~8.0M - 8.2M

Debrincat near 7x8 would be fantastic. All we have to do is tell him to shoot the damn puck and damn almost everything else. No need to be physical, he's short. It'd be great if he back-checked hard but 65% effort would be great because Larkin can be the horse on his line (or kasper i suppose).

 

[Winger98]

C 28y JT Compher UFA
4-5 years, ~5.5M - 5.7M
6-7 years, ~6.0M


RD 30y Scott Mayfield UFA
2-3 years, ~4.1M - 4.3M
4-5 years, ~4.6M - 4.9M

I think a Compher deal in those neighborhoods ages very poorly very quickly. Meanwhile, Mayfield sounds like the sort of signing Yzerman would make term/cap wise.

 

[Hoog]

I think Steve is going to go a little cheap on the 3rd line RHD, so I'd go Mayfield, Gudas, or Schenn.

 

[Hoog]

For forwards I wouldn't mind signing

Max Pacioretty and Pierre Engvall​

 

[Detroit Knights]

I think Steve is going to go a little cheap on the 3rd line RHD, so I'd go Mayfield, Gudas, or Schenn.

Gudas.

We need Gudas. Schenn would be great and I would take him over Gudas, but I just don't think he would sign here. Gudas is where it needs to be.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Tyler Bertuzzi estimations from evolving-hockey:
4 years, ~5.5M
5-6-7 years, ~6.1M

Dylan Larkin 8-year estimation:
~9.14M
Nice, seems like Yzerman got shaved ~440k off from this...

Filip Hronek RFA estensions:
2-3-4 years, ~5.2M - 5.5M
5-6-7 years, ~6.0M - 6.6M

Lucas Raymond RFA extensions:
3-year bridge, ~4.7M
4-5 years, ~5.0M - 5.4M
6-7 years, ~5.9M - 6.6M
8 years, ~7.1M

Moritz Seider RFA extensions:
3-year bridge, ~5.6M
4-5-6-7 years, ~6.1M - 6.9M
8 years, ~8.1M

Alex DeBrincat RFA extension
1-year quali offer 9.0M
3-4-5 years, ~7.3M - 7.7M
6-7 years, ~8.0M - 8.2M

Joe Veleno RFA extension
2 years, ~1.4M

Jeremy Swayman, RFA extensions:
2-3 years ~4.2M
4-5-6 years, ~4.8M

If you want to hear these from other players, please ask...

Can you add Barbashev?

I’m thinking…

ROR 2x6 or 3x6
Killorn 2x5.6
Mayfield 4x4.7
Trade for Swayman and sign 3x4.2
Gudas or Schenn 2x2.5
Barbashev 5x5 (play him on the 2nd line and watch him flourish)

28 mil in free agents.

Trade Veleno and Zadina for whatever. Combined about -3.25mil
Work a trade to jettison Chiarot. -4.75

So a net gain of about 20 mil. Still leaves a lot of cap for Ray and Seider extensions.

 

[DoMakc]

Can you add Barbashev?

I’m thinking…

ROR 2x6 or 3x6
Killorn 2x5.6
Mayfield 4x4.7
Trade for Swayman and sign 3x4.2
Gudas or Schenn 2x2.5
Barbashev 5x5 (play him on the 2nd line and watch him flourish)

28 mil in free agents.

Trade Veleno and Zadina for whatever. Combined about -3.25mil
Work a trade to jettison Chiarot. -4.75

So a net gain of about 20 mil. Still leaves a lot of cap for Ray and Seider extensions.

So basically you spend 20 mil on 2-3 line players without addressing the main issue - scoring and making it a lot slower. Basically Henkka is turning Red Wings into Vancouver Canucks - put the team into cap hell without actually improving it all that much.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

So basically you spend 20 mil on 2-3 line players without addressing the main issue - scoring and making it a lot slower. Basically Henkka is turning Red Wings into Vancouver Canucks - put the team into cap hell without actually improving it all that much.

Killorn, O’Reilly and Barbashev can all score and lift up the lower lineup depth which is where we hurt. That doesn’t put Detroit in cap hell. They’d have 10 mil in space going into the year.

Should Detroit do nothing? Is that what would make you happy? Keep icing a shit roster until they find the next McDavid?

 

[norrisnick]

Killorn, O’Reilly and Barbashev can all score and lift up the lower lineup depth which is where we hurt. That doesn’t put Detroit in cap hell. They’d have 10 mil in space going into the year.

Should Detroit do nothing? Is that what would make you happy? Keep icing a shit roster until they find the next McDavid?

Not at all. We have depth guys out the ass. We don't have enough top end guys so they are playing too high up in the lineup.

Those three excel playing appropriately slotted in the lineup. Behind guys like Stamkos, Point, Kucherov, Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Tarasenko, Thomas, Kyrou, etc...

That is the tier of forward we need a couple more of.

 

[Shaman464]

Killorn, O’Reilly and Barbashev can all score and lift up the lower lineup depth which is where we hurt. That doesn’t put Detroit in cap hell. They’d have 10 mil in space going into the year.

Should Detroit do nothing? Is that what would make you happy? Keep icing a shit roster until they find the next McDavid?

Basbashev can't score. ROR is trending in the wrong direction and is 32. Kilron spent a lot of time with players way more talented than anyone on Detroit (Point, Kuch, Stamkos), he's unlikely to produce anywhere near to his past point totals. He's will enter the season being 34.

 

[Perfect Human]

RD 28y Damon Severson UFA
4-5-6-7 years, 5.9M - 6.2M

4-5 years at $6M would be ok for Severson. Would stabalize 2RD for the next 3 years at least

Walman - Seider
Edvinsson - Severson
Maatta - Chiarot

That would seemingly be the starting lineup for 2 years or until Wallinder/Johansson pushes his way on the team. In that event, Chiarot or Maatta get traded.

 

[ColdToiletSeats]

we need a big signing to really push this team forward DeBrincat would be ideal

 

[Reddwit]

Tyler Bertuzzi estimations from evolving-hockey:
4 years, ~5.5M
5-6-7 years, ~6.1M

Dylan Larkin 8-year estimation:
~9.14M
Nice, seems like Yzerman got shaved ~440k off from this...

Filip Hronek RFA estensions:
2-3-4 years, ~5.2M - 5.5M
5-6-7 years, ~6.0M - 6.6M

Lucas Raymond RFA extensions:
3-year bridge, ~4.7M
4-5 years, ~5.0M - 5.4M
6-7 years, ~5.9M - 6.6M
8 years, ~7.1M

Moritz Seider RFA extensions:
3-year bridge, ~5.6M
4-5-6-7 years, ~6.1M - 6.9M
8 years, ~8.1M

Alex DeBrincat RFA extension
1-year quali offer 9.0M
3-4-5 years, ~7.3M - 7.7M
6-7 years, ~8.0M - 8.2M

Joe Veleno RFA extension
2 years, ~1.4M

Jeremy Swayman, RFA extensions:
2-3 years ~4.2M
4-5-6 years, ~4.8M

If you want to hear these from other players, please ask...

Give me Seider at 8 x 8.1 yesterday.

 

[Henkka]

I think a Compher deal in those neighborhoods ages very poorly very quickly. Meanwhile, Mayfield sounds like the sort of signing Yzerman would make term/cap wise.

Yeah, Mayfield smells like guy we need, but was expecting him a bit less, like 3M. Maybe these overpayments for Gudbransons etc. push the price high.

 

[Henkka]

We have ~27.5M in cap space for 19-man roster.

Think both Raymond and Seider have very realistic chance to reach 850k in performance bonuses, so let's leave that amount of extra space. Raymond has possibility for more bonuses, but those are very unrealistic to achieve. Like winning a Trophy (Hart, Selke etc.) or being at league Top10 in scoring. Seider could achieve something like this, but his bonus maximum is 850k. He'll probably get it.

So 850k + 850k = 1.7M has to be left extra space on 2023-24 cap, for these probable bonuses.

27.5M - 1.7M = 25.7M cap space.

There's 19 players signed, so you can bolster the team with 4 players.

1 Goaltender
1 Rh Defenceman
1 Center
1 Winger

25.7M of cap space / 4 players = 6.425M per player.

Let's say, Jere Swayman is the goalie. His cap estimation (4.8M for 3 years )is very near same as Husso caphit, so maybe Yzerman could trade his right to us and extend him to be 50/50 split duo with Husso. They went like this at Boston with Ullmark, and it was very effective system. It also buys time for Cossa to develop.

So we trade and sign RFA Swayman for 4.75M. Equal caphit to Husso.

We have now 21M of cap space left, for 3 players.

There's no 7M players left on free agency. So those 3 players can be any combo of ROR/Killorn/Barbashev, Severson/Dumba/Mayfield.

And you could trade for a pricier player, like Debrincat.

- "Debrincat" 8M
- center 6M
- defenceman 6M
----------------
Total ~20M
Cap space: ~21M
Full complete 23-man roster.

It still leaves you 1M under "own" limits.

And you can fit Raymond + Seider future deals on the 2024-25 cap too. This kind of bolstering deals won't make that impossible.

 

[Henkka]

So basically you spend 20 mil on 2-3 line players without addressing the main issue - scoring and making it a lot slower. Basically Henkka is turning Red Wings into Vancouver Canucks - put the team into cap hell without actually improving it all that much.

Team is not going to cap hell. We just improve it.

You haven't count the math, I have. Everything works both short-term and long-term. Key thing is relatively short-term deals for vets. So when the next kid wave (after Seider and Raymond) is up for extensions, then we have these shorter vet contracts coming out of the books.

It's solution, not a problem.

Can you add Barbashev?

LW 27y Ivan Barbashev
4-5-6-7 years, ~4.8M - 5.1M

Kind of Artturi Lehkonen comparable from last summer.

 

[DoMakc]

Killorn, O’Reilly and Barbashev can all score and lift up the lower lineup depth which is where we hurt. That doesn’t put Detroit in cap hell. They’d have 10 mil in space going into the year.

Should Detroit do nothing? Is that what would make you happy? Keep icing a shit roster until they find the next McDavid?

I think there is a difference between spending money for sake of not doing nothing and actually trying to improve your team.

I'm on board with trading for Keller, Konecny, Connor, Ehlers, Marner, Bratt, Meier or even Nylander or Schmalz. I even can imagine trading for good but not but not elite players anymore who still paid like they are elite - e.g. Panarin, Tavares who don't have much term but can improve this team over next two years withiur giving up much beside cap flexibility. I guess you can call "weaponizing cap space". Or helping Canucks with Boeser or Garland contracts. Or trading Basically I'd rather buy for 12 mil what costs 7 today, than pay 6 mil for 1 mil perfomance.

I'm also ok with paying proven veterans on a short term, like Tarasenko or Pacioretty (on prove me contract) or even Patrick Kane. But before we overpay O'Reilly for next 3 years I'd rather let Kasper, Mazur, Söderblom develop in the NHL and see if Veleno and Zadina can maybe get their shit together.

 

[norrisnick]

We have ~27.5M in cap space for 19-man roster.

Think both Raymond and Seider have very realistic chance to reach 850k in performance bonuses, so let's leave that amount of extra space. Raymond has possibility for more bonuses, but those are very unrealistic to achieve. Like winning a Trophy (Hart, Selke etc.) or being at league Top10 in scoring. Seider could achieve something like this, but his bonus maximum is 850k. He'll probably get it.

So 850k + 850k = 1.7M has to be left extra space on 2023-24 cap, for these probable bonuses.

27.5M - 1.7M = 25.7M cap space.

There's 19 players signed, so you can bolster the team with 4 players.

1 Goaltender
1 Rh Defenceman
1 Center
1 Winger

25.7M of cap space / 4 players = 6.425M per player.

Let's say, Jere Swayman is the goalie. His cap estimation (4.8M for 3 years )is very near same as Husso caphit, so maybe Yzerman could trade his right to us and extend him to be 50/50 split duo with Husso. They went like this at Boston with Ullmark, and it was very effective system. It also buys time for Cossa to develop.

So we trade and sign RFA Swayman for 4.75M. Equal caphit to Husso.

We have now 21M of cap space left, for 3 players.

There's no 7M players left on free agency. So those 3 players can be any combo of ROR/Killorn/Barbashev, Severson/Dumba/Mayfield.

And you could trade for a pricier player, like Debrincat.

- "Debrincat" 8M
- center 6M
- defenceman 6M
----------------
Total ~20M
Cap space: ~21M
Full complete 23-man roster.

It still leaves you 1M under "own" limits.

And you can fit Raymond + Seider future deals on the 2024-25 cap too. This kind of bolstering deals won't make that impossible.

Again, now you have to walk away from someone you don't want to and/or move someone at a loss to make room for Seider, Raymond, Rasmussen, and Berggren's new contracts.

$1M + cap increase is not enough for that. Bumping against the cap just because you can right now is exactly how teams get stuck with poorly balanced rosters.

Perron and Kubalik need new contracts or their replacements need to be paid.

Banking on having 5 productive/effective ELCs on the roster at the same time is not a good plan. But that's about the only way to get away with the moves you outlined.

 

[Henkka]

Again, now you have to walk away from someone you don't want to and/or move someone at a loss to make room for Seider, Raymond, Rasmussen, and Berggren's new contracts.

$1M + cap increase is not enough for that. Bumping against the cap just because you can right now is exactly how teams get stuck with poorly balanced rosters.

Own kids (Söderblom, Kasper, Mazur etc.) will grow to those roles one-by-one and will take those spots from Kubaliks and Perrons and that's the carbon copy way it went at Yzerman's Tampa.

That's how it goes and that's how the math will work, both short and long-term.

 

[norrisnick]

Own kids (Söderblom, Kasper, Mazur etc.) will grow to those roles one-by-one and will take those spots from Kubaliks and Perrons and that's the carbon copy way it went at Yzerman's Tampa.

That's how goes and that's how the math works.

Point to the season that Tampa had 5+ kids on ELCs.

 

[Henkka]

Point to the season that Tampa had 5+ kids on ELCs.

Okay, I will show you some iron wire.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 2015-16 season:

ELC players
- Kucherov
- Vasilevskiy
- JT Brown
- Nesterov
- Paquette
- Marchessault
6 kids were +150/180 days on NHL roster. That will mean NHL regulars. There was even more on rotation (Drouin, Koekkoek, Gourde)

They HAD BOLSTERED THE TEAM WITH VETS LIKE:
- Callahan, 31y
- Carle, 32y
- Filppula, 33y
- Bishop, 30y
- Garrison, 32y
- Coburn, 31y
- Strålman, 30y
- Brian Boyle, 31y

Their young core on 2nd contracts:
- Hedman, 25y
- Stamkos, 26y
- Palat, 25y
- Johnson, 25y
- Killorn, 26y

I couldn't go any further in the history, because capfriendly doesn't show older years. But Tampa was even more veteran heavy before the 2015-16 season.

Seider and Raymond are going to 2nd contracts, as well as Berggren, Rasmussen will be on his 3rd contract next year. These are the kids = young core.

As first wave will go to 2nd contracts then comes the next wave of ELCs and next and next. It's the roster internal growth, before the 1st wave realy taking key roles, you need the vet core there and Yzerman will repeat at Detroit, kind of sure about it. These PErron's and Chiarot's are the first sign of it.

Becoming summer will be the same. He is gonna bring in veteran talent to surround the kids and will use ~25 million for that.

 

[norrisnick]

Okay, I will show you some iron wire.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 2015-16 season:

ELC players
- Kucherov
- Vasilevskiy
- JT Brown
- Nesterov
- Paquette
- Marchessault
6 kids were +150/180 days on NHL roster. That will mean NHL regulars. There was even more on rotation (Drouin, Koekkoek, Gourde)

They HAD BOLSTERED THE TEAM WITH VETS LIKE:
- Callahan, 31y
- Carle, 32y
- Filppula, 33y
- Bishop, 30y
- Garrison, 32y
- Coburn, 31y
- Strålman, 30y
- Brian Boyle, 31y

Their young core on 2nd contracts:
- Hedman, 25y
- Stamkos, 26y
- Palat, 25y
- Johnson, 25y
- Killorn, 26y

I couldn't go any further in the history, because capfriendly doesn't show older years. But Tampa was even more veteran heavy before the 2015-16 season.

Seider and Raymond are going to 2nd contracts, as well as Berggren, Rasmussen will be on his 3rd contract next year. These are the kids = young core.

As first wave will go to 2nd contracts then comes the next wave of ELCs and next and next. It's the roster internal growth, before the 1st wave realy taking key roles, you need the vet core there and Yzerman will repeat at Detroit, kind of sure about it. These PErron's and Chiarot's are the first sign of it.

Becoming summer will be the same. He is gonna bring in veteran talent to surround the kids and will use ~25 million for that.

Got it.

So 4 players on ELCs (one on his 2nd and one on his 3rd contract out of the 6 claimed ELCs). And only one of the ELCs playing more than 60 games (Kucherov).

Capping out this season, is completely irresponsible.

 

[ricky0034]

even if you can technically make it work with bridge deals forcing yourself to do so by spending to the cap isn't a good idea, by not having the ability to sign your young players to long term deals you're giving up a competitive advantage with the cap, signing them to long deals that end up in the teams favor in the long run when they're young is how teams save money on their best players nowadays

I don't think the Wings odds are good of competing with teams like New Jersey and Buffalo in the long run as it is but good luck with that if they not only have better players but also have better cap deals on all their best players