Prospect Info: 2023 Draft Thread (Yotes picking #6 & #12)

[Heldig]

What's really going to sting is I have this guy feeling we could be worse next season. More rookies taking bigger roles. We may not have Chychrun, Ghost, Ritchie and Bjudstadt, who all could be replaced with lesser vets and worse cap dumps. We have been healthy for the almost of this season (knock on wood) and even returning back to the mean could mean one of our important forwards like Crouse or Keller/Schmaltz being out for a chunk of time.

I can just see it now, finish 8th worst in the generational draft with 4-5 superstars. Finish dead last the following season that is a much more average draft (I admittedly know nothing about the 2024 class).

The Coyote way.

That said,

1. Macklin Celebrini, C, Chicago-USHL
Celebrini is the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NHL Draft as it stands right now. He’s an electric offensive player with high-end skill and creativity with the puck and can make a lot of difficult plays with good pace. He has the outstanding scoring ability, but given his average frame I love how hard Celebrini works on the ice to go with his offensive talent. He looks like a guy who has separated from the pack for next year’s draft as it stands right now.

Forward -- shoots L
Born Jun 13 2006 -- Vancouver, BC
[16 yrs. ago]
Height 5.11 -- Weight 189 [180 cm/86 kg]

2022-23

Chicago Steel

USHL

21

16

15

31

24

13

 

[lanky]

What's really going to sting is I have this guy feeling we could be worse next season. More rookies taking bigger roles. We may not have Chychrun, Ghost, Ritchie and Bjudstadt, who all could be replaced with lesser vets and worse cap dumps. We have been healthy for the almost of this season (knock on wood) and even returning back to the mean could mean one of our important forwards like Crouse or Keller/Schmaltz being out for a chunk of time.

I can just see it now, finish 8th worst in the generational draft with 4-5 superstars. Finish dead last the following season that is a much more average draft (I admittedly know nothing about the 2024 class).

I agree that we might not be any better next season, but I'm confident we're not going to dead last again. Even if Valimaki - Moser is our top pair next season, we still won't be dead last.

 

[rt]

2024 looks like a great draft for blueliners if you take Pronman’s word for it. He’s got six of them in his top ten.

 

[rt]

What's really going to sting is I have this guy feeling we could be worse next season. More rookies taking bigger roles. We may not have Chychrun, Ghost, Ritchie and Bjudstadt, who all could be replaced with lesser vets and worse cap dumps. We have been healthy for the almost of this season (knock on wood) and even returning back to the mean could mean one of our important forwards like Crouse or Keller/Schmaltz being out for a chunk of time.

I can just see it now, finish 8th worst in the generational draft with 4-5 superstars. Finish dead last the following season that is a much more average draft (I admittedly know nothing about the 2024 class).

I think this is the year to be pretty bad and win Bedard via lottery. Next year, we can be pretty bad and lose the lottery. And that’s ok.

 

[rt]

One thing that scares me is this Bedard performance at the WJC causing GMs of teams just below the bubble to decide to get crafty and tank for lottery odds. Sell off all their UFAs, at least, and maybe even some guys that help but aren’t core.

Meanwhile, our strategy seems to be to drag teams out into deeper waters in order to extract maximum value. Issues there are twofold:

1) It would mean more daylight between teams in the playoff picture and teams out of it. Which means less desperation. That hurts rather than helps our return package value

2) Things suddenly get crowded around us in the standings and we aren’t so clear-cut to enter the lottery in the top five, or so. We may end up in the back half of that crucial top eleven.

So what can be done? I think we may need to act faster and get ahead of things. I really do. I feel like waiting could easily become more risky than jumping the gun. Especially with Chychrun. Waiting increases the odds of injury and the odds of winning too much.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Question worth asking...I don't think Fantilli has had a poor showing, but he hasn't had the type of performance that I think a 2nd overall should have...so does that diminish his stock any? I'm just asking, because knowing that the Coyotes will not win the lottery, that we're most likely going to draft somewhere between 4th-8th, that Fantilli could possibly drop from 2nd overall into that range?

 

[Freddy Sjostrom]

Question worth asking...I don't think Fantilli has had a poor showing, but he hasn't had the type of performance that I think a 2nd overall should have...so does that diminish his stock any? I'm just asking, because knowing that the Coyotes will not win the lottery, that we're most likely going to draft somewhere between 4th-8th, that Fantilli could possibly drop from 2nd overall into that range?

I don’t think so based on what he’s doing at Michigan. Years back scouts would say the WJC won’t hurt, but can only help a draft eligible. I know others say the success or failure of any international tournament has no correlation to a players draft ranking, it’s just a gauge for where they are right now.

Edit- whatever the answer, teams put much more stock into what they are doing with their amateur club.

 

[Freddy Sjostrom]

So what can be done? I think we may need to act faster and get ahead of things. I really do. I feel like waiting could easily become more risky than jumping the gun. Especially with Chychrun. Waiting increases the odds of injury and the odds of winning too much.

It’s a tough situation to be in. If what you say happens, more bottom 10 teams are willing to unload talent for a shot at Bedard. That _may_ decrease the value of Boogie, Ghost, etc. Imo, top teams are still going to value some of those guys and pay up, maybe not as much as fans think though. I would guess JC is different because of age, contract, and the season he is having in his return from injury.

 

[hbk]

Question worth asking...I don't think Fantilli has had a poor showing, but he hasn't had the type of performance that I think a 2nd overall should have...so does that diminish his stock any? I'm just asking, because knowing that the Coyotes will not win the lottery, that we're most likely going to draft somewhere between 4th-8th, that Fantilli could possibly drop from 2nd overall into that range?

if he drops he goes from 2nd to 3rd or possibly 4th if you love the Russian. Premium position and he has size/skill that every team wants.

 

[lanky]

Years back scouts would say the WJC won’t hurt, but can only help a draft eligible.

I totally agree with this for draft season players that make the WJC. It's a tournament for 19 year olds. Can't fault a 17 year old, even if they look like garbage (and I don't think that's what Fantilli is showing).

For the U18s in the spring, I think it's fair to be critical of a poor performance.

 

[Sinurgy]

I can just see it now, finish 8th worst in the generational draft with 4-5 superstars. Finish dead last the following season that is a much more average draft (I admittedly know nothing about the 2024 class).

Oh absolutely, the shortsightedness of it all is just so so frustrating.

 

[Sinurgy]

I agree that we might not be any better next season, but I'm confident we're not going to dead last again. Even if Valimaki - Moser is our top pair next season, we still won't be dead last.

Again? At the rate they're going now they're not even going to be close to dead last this season. BA needs to fix this f***ing yesterday!

 

[rt]

Question worth asking...I don't think Fantilli has had a poor showing, but he hasn't had the type of performance that I think a 2nd overall should have...so does that diminish his stock any? I'm just asking, because knowing that the Coyotes will not win the lottery, that we're most likely going to draft somewhere between 4th-8th, that Fantilli could possibly drop from 2nd overall into that range?

He’s a lock for top four. I don’t see any credible threats outside of Carlsson and Michkov. I think we will draft either 1st/2nd or 6th/7th.

The concept of draft eligible kids having huge showings is so new to me that I can’t really wrap my head around this new reality. Especially when it comes to US & Canada.

Aaron Ekblad and Nathan MacKinnon were pretty quiet in pretty nominal roles. Which was normal.

McDavid ripped it up but Eichel didn’t and Strome wasn’t even on the team.

Matthews killed it but Dubois wasn’t there.

Patrick and Makar weren’t there the next year.

Then Tkachuk had a better tourney than Fantilli is having so far but not a runaway performance.

Hughes had a pretty Fantilli-esque tourney production-wise but I think Fantilli has been much more noticeable in a positive way. Hughes looked kinda dumb. And Dach wasn’t there and neither was Turcotte.

Then Lafreniere had a nice tourney, Byfield barely played, Sanderson wasn’t there, and Drysdale had a good showing (not a runaway).

I’d say Powers and Beniers weren’t more impressive (maybe less) than Fantilli (so far) and McTavish, Hughes, and Johnson weren’t there.

And last year was a mess that doesn’t really count. But Cooley and Wright looked good but were older because of circumstances.

if he drops he goes from 2nd to 3rd or possibly 4th if you love the Russian. Premium position and he has size/skill that every team wants.

I’d kill to add Fantilli to our pool. He’s an unreal prospect. Size, speed and so much skill but also attitude. Kid is an absolute prick out there. Like a Tkachuk brother. Same swagger and punchability. Like the bully villain in an 80s teen rom com.

 

[rt]

Question worth asking...I don't think Fantilli has had a poor showing, but he hasn't had the type of performance that I think a 2nd overall should have...so does that diminish his stock any? I'm just asking, because knowing that the Coyotes will not win the lottery, that we're most likely going to draft somewhere between 4th-8th, that Fantilli could possibly drop from 2nd overall into that range?

Some of it may be role/position/usage-based. This is an very interesting chart (small sample):

 

[rt]

What I mean there is he’s been a 1C his entire life. But at this tourney he’s been a 2LW, 3RW, 4LW and 4RW. I’m guessing that’s going to negatively impact transition and passing metrics.

 

[TheLegend]

 

[Sinurgy]

Goddamnit BA...order Tourigny to give top minutes to the least effective players on the team ...getting so frustrated with this shit!

 

[Dirty Old Man]

Lol.....Biznasty......we ain't getting Bedard. Even if we finish last. Stop wasting energy wishing for losses.

 

[GhostofYotesFan47]

God, if only. Imagine how impacful that would be for our rebuild? Imagine having our new arena and watching the playoffs in it in 4 years. That would be so cool.

 

[JasonDemersWasOkay]

It really would be poetic. The blackhawks leapfrogged us in 2007 to get Kane and it turned their whole franchise around. It should only be fitting that this draft we leapfrog them to get our own shot at redemption.

It’s so unfair that the hawks and ducks, two teams who got to enjoy outright domination for the whole 2010’s will have such a high shot at bedard. If it’s not us I hope it’s Columbus.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Eliminating the lottery and implementing a simple draft order rotation would be the fairest system and reduce the incentive to tank. It makes so much sense that it will never happen.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Eliminating the lottery and implementing a simple draft order rotation would be the fairest system and reduce the incentive to tank. It makes so much sense that it will never happen.

Still a lot of problems doing it this way...due to the fact that what if the best team in the league got Bedard. Somewhere it has to involve reverse standings...the current system I think is the most fair that they've come up with...it just so happens that Anaheim & Chicago look like they're going to do it right and out tank us.

we're just simply gonna have to hope for lottery luck. You'd think that over these number of years, with the bad breaks we've taken, that we would have built up enough draft lottery karma that this would be our year.

I can always have hope

 

[MIGs Dog]

what if the best team in the league got Bedard.

It could happen, but that team wouldn't pick 1OA for another 32 years.

It's statistically possible that the Coyotes will never pick higher than 3rd in my lifetime, and I plan on living a long time. Is that fair?

Is it fair how many times the Oilers drafted 1OA in a short time span?

Is it fair Pittsburgh drafted 1st or 2nd for four straight years?

I prefer the certainty of knowing that draft picks will be evenly distributed across the league.

It's also intriguing to see how GMs would change their tactics both throughout the season and before the TDL. There still would be incentive to trade current assets for future assets, but there would be zero incentive to ice a bad team. It would be good for the game.

There are a bunch of teams that intentionally did not assemble a playoff caliber roster. Rewarding that strategy is not good for the game. An alternative to the draft order I just mentioned is to draft in the order of finish starting with the 17th place team. This system would still reward teams that missed the playoffs, but not provide an incentive to finish near the bottom.

The current system not only rewards failure, but intentional failure. It would be like an employer handing out the biggest Christmas bonuses based on whoever had the lowest sales numbers because they felt sorry for the poor sap.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

There are a bunch of teams that intentionally did not assemble a playoff caliber roster. Rewarding that strategy is not good for the game. An alternative to the draft order I just mentioned is to draft in the order of finish starting with the 17th place team. This system would still reward teams that missed the playoffs, but not provide an incentive to finish near the bottom.

Couldn't do this...this would always keep the bottom teams on the bottom, as they would never get anyone spectacular enough to overcome the "almost" playoff teams. This year would be a good example, Colorado may miss the playoffs and be team #16 and end up with Bedard to go along w/Mac/Rant/Makar...the current system is the best, it's just unfortunate that the Coyotes have the worst draft lottery luck of all time.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Couldn't do this...this would always keep the bottom teams on the bottom, as they would never get anyone spectacular enough to overcome the "almost" playoff teams. This year would be a good example, Colorado may miss the playoffs and be team #16 and end up with Bedard to go along w/Mac/Rant/Makar...the current system is the best, it's just unfortunate that the Coyotes have the worst draft lottery luck of all time.

The Coyotes went to the western conference finals with ZERO high draft picks on their roster. It's possible to win games without drafting 1OA. However, under my "just missed it" draft order system, the Yotes would have drafted very high numerous times.