Prospect Info: 2023 Draft Thread (Yotes picking #6 & #12)

[BUX7PHX]

Always take BPA in the first round, if it's a tie take D or C over W, you don't want to miss big. We took Strome because of position when Marner was clearly BPA. In 2nd and third rounds, you can draft more on potential BPA, it's a guess anyway, long odds to get an impact player.

Interesting draft odds of getting an NHL player by round here: https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/
Our top 2 picks have a 74% chance of playing at least 100 NHL games, drops like a rock after the top 25 picks, 1 out of 3 second round picks, and 1 out of 4 third round picks play 100 games or more. BA touts his staff, we will find out if we beat the odds and get a higher percentage of second round picks to be NHL players than the current 35% average.

Getting an impact player is in the top 5 picks generally, but we have a 50/50 shot with 6 and 12. If we can draft a keller and Chych player at those spots we succeeded. They are more of make sure you don't make a mistake picks (Gormley/Runblad), then they are hit it out of the park picks.

Generally, this is EXACTLY what has me worried about our D core. If we reach for D at 6 or 12 this year (depending on reach definition), we MUST hit on that player. Otherwise, not only did we not hit, we lost a player at a wholly different position that fits into that 74% chance of over 100 games played.

If we don't take D early and wait until 2024, we have one 1st rounder to use, plus four 2nds. That means likely 1 or 2 plays 100 NHL games of the picks over the next 2 years when they have fully developed.

This was why I begged the question last year of going a little off board and focusing on Nemec or Jiricek. I think we liked Nemec a lot but he went at 2. I actually had Jiricek ahead of Nemec, but the main reason is because in a vacuum, you look at current year's drafts but should be looking at more of a direct age to age comparison. Our scouts should have tabs on multiple players and maybe part of analytics might be to say how these players compare as true peers. In other words, for this year, I would have a list of both 2023 and 2024 candidates jumbled together based on their D minus 1 year. If you start to see certain players or positions have a strength, you accordingly use that information to help define a direction. So, last year, if the same thing were done, I think there would have been an overabundance of direction to go defense at 3. If we took the 2022 and 2023 draft eligible and looked at them in similar ages, Cooley would probably be in the 5-9 range behind Bedard, Fantilli, Slafovsky and maybe Wright or Michkov both. I probably would have had Cooley no lower than 7th. But Jiricek and Nemec for me would have both been close after, even if there was a couple of other forwards in there, there would have been such a large gap between Jiricek/Nemec and the next best defensemen in Korchinski. A bunch of forwards would be in my 9-20 overall range. For the record, it would have probably gone Cooley at 6, w Wright and Michkov both ahead, followed by 7. Carlsson 8. Smith 9. Jiricek 10. Gauthier 11. Nemec 12. Dvorsky 13. Leonard, etc. Hell, Lambert may have been higher than some of the next best 2023 defensemen.

The same way that people are saying avoid defense this year because next year has a bunch of highly rated defensemen, I was asking the same thing last year because forwards are bountiful early this year and we knew the plan was to try and acquire picks for some of our players.

It's weird because I got vilified for suggesting the same thing last year and now it's okay to think that way. Seems ridiculous.

 

[rt]

That’s not what happened. They took BPA last year. Which is what everyone wanted. This year, everyone wants them to take BPA again. Nothing changed.

 

[lanky]

It's weird because I got vilified for suggesting the same thing last year and now it's okay to think that way. Seems ridiculous.

If you were mocked for proposing that strategy last year, then I think you deserved it. The folks proposing it now, well they deserve it too.

 

[Kaibur]

I don't trade back...I take the better player every time. That's what this team needs is "better" players at almost every position. Why drop down and get a lesser player, makes no sense.

I'm all for using asset capital to move up from 6 and move up from #38

Who is the better player in that next bunch though? Yager? Perreault? Danielson? Barlow? Sale? I think any of those guys could conceivably go at 12 and it wouldnt be crazy. There isn't a clear "better player" at that point. So trading back is a reasonable strategy in this scenario.

It's not like trading to 11 from 27 to pick Geekie. It's like trading up from 14 to get Soderstrom. That's the only example of a pick around 12 trading back a few spots in the last 5 years.

Today, would you trade Soderstrom for Cam York and Egor Afanasyev? I would.

My preference of that bunch is Yager. I don't think it's crazy to bet that he'd still be there at 15 and add a D prospect like Cam Allen or Tom Willander in the process.

And if the preferred guy (Yager) gets picked, I'm not going to be devastated if it's one of the other guys instead. They could just as likely have better short and long term career trajectories than Yager.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

But when we can take Dvorsky at #6 and then move up 4 spots to take Leonard at #8 or 2 spots to take Leonard at #10

That sounds a whole lot better than trading back to get Yager and then some other guys. We have a tremendous amount of draft capital, it's about time we began using it to move up to get the better player.

 

[Half Clapper]

I think the Yotes are drafting Ryan Leonard with one of the two picks. I honestly won't be surprised if the Yotes draft Leonard at #6.

At the same time, I am Canadian, and I am biased towards Canadian players, so I think the Yotes need some more Canadian flavour on the roster. Leonard and Wood in the first round, and I'll be ecstatic.

 

[rt]

I think the Yotes are drafting Ryan Leonard with one of the two picks. I honestly won't be surprised if the Yotes draft Leonard at #6.

At the same time, I am Canadian, and I am biased towards Canadian players, so I think the Yotes need some more Canadian flavour on the roster. Leonard and Wood in the first round, and I'll be ecstatic.

Leonard was 7th on the McKenzie poll. Unlikely he’ll be there at 12th. Wood was 12th on the McKenzie poll so more likely.

I do wonder about taking two wingers, though. If they’re the clear BPA then that’s fine. But if it’s a close call between wood and one do Danielson or Yager or something, then I’d lean center. Or if they have a D they like a lot more than I do.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

I'd be ecstatic with that as well. Wood was 1 of 3 players on team Canada that were good at U18's...most of the team was junk, so it's not a great draft for team Canada.

 

[Half Clapper]

Leonard was 7th on the McKenzie poll. Unlikely he’ll be there at 12th. Wood was 12th on the McKenzie poll so more likely.

I do wonder about taking two wingers, though. If they’re the clear BPA then that’s fine. But if it’s a close call between wood and one do Danielson or Yager or something, then I’d lean center. Or if they have a D they like a lot more than I do.

Leonard played all three fwd positions this year. I think he can play center at the next level if that is where the Yotes prefer him.

 

[rt]

This is the kind of opportunity that could give Carlsson a chance to improve his draft position:

 

[rt]

Leonard played all three fwd positions this year. I think he can play center at the next level if that is where the Yotes prefer him.

I’ve seen a couple of videos where Leonard says he prefers the wing and things his game is better there. But he’s a kid. You never know!

 

[tucknroll]

I’ve only seen what people are raving about when it comes to ASP in about two games. Of course I don’t watch league play. But from what I’ve seen (limited to tournaments) I’m not a fan. Of course I’ll defer to our scouts and I don’t have a big enough sample to have a real opinion. I just have a little bit of skepticism because of size, stats, and limited viewings all being a little bit suspect for me.

Conversely, I’ve seen quite a bit of Dragicevic and I’ve really never seen much of what his detractors criticize him for. I much prefer Dragicevic over what I’ve seen from ASP.

This is the problem with being A) Not being a scout and B) Not watching Euro leagues.

I haven't been a huge fan of him in the SHL, he has shown solid flashes but need to adapt to the speed a little more (which is fair for a 17 year old in the 3rd best league), however when playing people his own age he doesn't make bad decisions with the puck. As soon as he's within 5 feet of the puck he rarely makes any mistake. He's a great skater, good stickhandler and can be very deceptive. I'm not looking at him expecting him to be a 50+ point powerplay QB D. I'm looking at him seeing a minute eating D that can put up 30+ points, great on the breakout and plays reliable hockey. He isn't a player I'm going to be super excited about, but I can see the upside for sure. He's more of a back-up plan at #12 for me than who I'm hoping for

Also wasn't a big Dragicevic fan, I think a late first early second is fair, he has good potential for sure but in my viewings he needed to be more patient with the puck, always seemed like he was forcing it and not great at defence

 

[wbwing]

Why all the concern about getting wingers? We went with two centers last year, Hayton and McBain broke out in a big way. I get that we may trade some, but some of our lower round picks and the Jenik/Smiths of the world may still make it. I feel like we have the luxury to look at raw skill/size and not worry about position. If we can't get all world talent game breaker talent, I think filling in with size that has speed and skill makes a lot of sense. Really hard to find that without overspending if you don't draft and develop yourself. And if you get too many, they have shocking value at the deadline. Look at what Jeannot got. Just sell them off judiciously and you can continually restock!

 

[Grimes]

As much as I don't think Carlsson drops past 3 I feel like CBJ may love Smith since he's a true center. They have a great two-way center in Sillinger and a top 3C in Rosvolic. They have four high skilled wingers on the team in Johnny G, Laine, Kent and Marchenko. Sure they could use more but Carlsson kind of is more of the same where Smith would be a completely different talent than they have.

I don't think they can wait for Michkov because they want to compete with Johnny G on the roster. Smith and Carlsson would be the most pro-ready.

If Smith is drafted 3 there is no way Carlsson gets past SJ in my mind. I really think there's a good chance Michkov could be there at 6. I'm trying to prepare for it.

 

[rt]

As much as I don't think Carlsson drops past 3 I feel like CBJ may love Smith since he's a true center. They have a great two-way center in Sillinger and a top 3C in Rosvolic. They have four high skilled wingers on the team in Johnny G, Laine, Kent and Marchenko. Sure they could use more but Carlsson kind of is more of the same where Smith would be a completely different talent than they have.

I don't think they can wait for Michkov because they want to compete with Johnny G on the roster. Smith and Carlsson would be the most pro-ready.

If Smith is drafted 3 there is no way Carlsson gets past SJ in my mind. I really think there's a good chance Michkov could be there at 6. I'm trying to prepare for it.

Could see Michkov going to MTL but could also see them passing.

Why all the concern about getting wingers? We went with two centers last year, Hayton and McBain broke out in a big way. I get that we may trade some, but some of our lower round picks and the Jenik/Smiths of the world may still make it. I feel like we have the luxury to look at raw skill/size and not worry about position. If we can't get all world talent game breaker talent, I think filling in with size that has speed and skill makes a lot of sense. Really hard to find that without overspending if you don't draft and develop yourself. And if you get too many, they have shocking value at the deadline. Look at what Jeannot got. Just sell them off judiciously and you can continually restock!

Jeannot returned a haul. And yet Paciorettyand Bjorkstrand went for nothing and there was reportedly only poor returns out there for Boeser. Winger market is crazy. I don’t get it.

But I’m not concerned about taking wingers. Just want to make sure the winger is clear, clear BPA over the center.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

If CBJ takes Smith over Carlsson, I'd call SJ and offer up a hefty package to move up for Leo.

 

[rt]

If CBJ takes Smith over Carlsson, I'd call SJ and offer up a hefty package to move up for Leo.

4th and 26th for 6th, 12th and FLA’s ‘24 2nd?

 

[Jagged Ice]

4th and 26th for 6th, 12th and FLA’s ‘24 2nd?

Reminded me of a few members from Anaheim on Reddit asked if we'd trade #6 and Guenther for Fantilli. Not sure I would do that. Kind of hesitant on 6, 12, and '24 2nd for Carlsson and their 26th.

 

[Schemp]

If CBJ takes Smith over Carlsson, I'd call SJ and offer up a hefty package to move up for Leo.

6th, 38th, and a 3rd rounder. and if Benson is still there at 12, I'd be in heaven (heaven on earth, not terminal, just to clarify).

 

[Bonsai Tree]

6th, 38th, and a 3rd rounder. and if Benson is still there at 12, I'd be in heaven (heaven on earth, not terminal, just to clarify).

That would be Cleveland.

 

[Schemp]

a conversation I had with a Columbus fan about the 38th and Vejmelka for LA's 1st, 23rd.

 

[XX]

If CBJ takes Smith over Carlsson, I'd call SJ and offer up a hefty package to move up for Leo.

Nobody is going to trade out and pass on Carlsson if he looks even just average as Sweden's 1C.

Montreal should then take Michkov because they've got the money and clout to handle that. And that would leave the yotes with Dvorsky, which I'm not thrilled about but whatever.

 

[Schemp]

...now if the Habs are set on Slafkovsky's fellow countryman, Dvorsky instead of Smith, that may entice the Blue Jackets to do the trade.

 

[tucknroll]

Montreal is the wild card here. They are one of the few teams in the cellar that can look into next season and think they can push anywhere between 10-17 place in the league. They have Jeff Gorton who has always done a great job building teams through the draft. I doubt he would want to let Michkov slip past their pick. That being said, since Monteal is closer to competing in the league than most so maybe they don't want to wait 4 years for a player and maybe Montreal wants to have more control over the players development so they look to Dvorsky/ Reinbacher instead.
If SJ or CLB take does take Smith, there is a realistic CHANCE Michkov falls to 6th... and personally I don't care if it takes till he's 22 for him to play.
I'd be over the moon for Michkov and I'd be very happy with either Dvorsky or Leonard

 

[squashmaple]

a conversation I had with a Columbus fan about the 38th and Vejmelka for LA's 1st, 23rd.

I don't know if I was that fan (I know I discussed a Vejmelka trade with rt, though), I'd do that in a heartbeat. I want Vejmelka big time. I loved how Arizona developed Raanta and Kuemper and I like Vejmelka even more than those two.

As for Columbus in the draft, I can't see how they go any other route but Carlsson. Seems to me a lot of the Smith smoke was leading up to the lottery when finishing fourth was a distinct possibility.