I share your opinion on this. Michkov would be to be number 2 in this draft if it wasn't the Russia question. I value Carlsson's strengths over Fantillis, even though I believe both of them will be 1C's (for anyone questioning Carlsson at C, he's been 1C for Three Crowns for quite a few games now).
If anyone of the top five (my fifth would be Benson whom I regard higher than Smith due to motor) drops to 6th I'd be ecstatic.
I want a D at 12, even though it should always be BPA.
Always take BPA in the first round, if it's a tie take D or C over W, you don't want to miss big. We took Strome because of position when Marner was clearly BPA. In 2nd and third rounds, you can draft more on potential BPA, it's a guess anyway, long odds to get an impact player.
Interesting draft odds of getting an NHL player by round here:
https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/
Our top 2 picks have a 74% chance of playing at least 100 NHL games, drops like a rock after the top 25 picks, 1 out of 3 second round picks, and 1 out of 4 third round picks play 100 games or more. BA touts his staff, we will find out if we beat the odds and get a higher percentage of second round picks to be NHL players than the current 35% average.
Getting an impact player is in the top 5 picks generally, but we have a 50/50 shot with 6 and 12. If we can draft a keller and Chych player at those spots we succeeded. They are more of make sure you don't make a mistake picks (Gormley/Runblad), then they are hit it out of the park picks.