2023 Draft Discussion

[Frk It]

NHL Mock Draft 1.0: How does Scott Wheeler see the first round after Connor Bedard?

With the NHL Draft Lottery complete, The Athletic's Scott Wheeler tried to figure out which players could go where in the first round.

theathletic.com

AAAANNNNDDD once again Wheeler manages to make a mock draft that makes me want to punch him square in the mouth.....

Wings pass on Dvorsky, Benson, Wood, Yager AND Moore to take....Nate Danielson, his 20th! ranked player because of his "well rounded game, pro size, and being a safe bet to be a solid 2/3C behind Larkin." Sorry dipshit, we drafted the superior version of that LAST year with Kasper.

Blues get Benson, Canucks get Dvorsky, Pens get Wood, Yotes get Moore and Preds get Yager. And then just for good measure, Willander goes at 16 before the Wings can get him at 17 or 18.

I can kind of see where you are coming from here... but

I can see the thought process from Wheeler here. I would not be surprised if the Wings were really high on Danielson, and I might keep that in the back of your mind. He does have a lot of the same qualities as Kasper last year. Although not sure his ceiling is worse, tbh. He was the leading point scorer on his WHL team this year, and it was not a great team. I have seen some clips of him making some pretty impressive offensive plays.

Personally I am fine with any of Smith, Dvorsky, Benson, Sale, Perreault, Leonard, Wood, Moore, Reinbacher, Barlow, or Yager at 9. Prefer some more than others, but I don't know anyone in that group at 9 makes me upset or sad.

And I don't even think it is that crazy to consider Danielson or Honzek at 9.

This group from the USDP/WHL is really good this year in my opinion. I think you have a number of good options from both.

After you get past that group of Bedard/Carlsson/Fantilli/Michkov I think that next group of players runs pretty deep and is pretty close.

 

[HisNoodliness]

perreault has silky mits but he is a player i would be happy with at 18 but dissappointed with at 9 considering the other players available. think SY will gun for a power forward, a centre or a RHD at 9th IMO

think i would be happy with all of those other players, and would and barlow and moore to that list

I'm growing to be of the opposite opinion. I think that we're going to get two really solid prospects at 9 and 17 so I want to bet on upside at 9 with the hope that a bust might be compensated for at 17. I think that Perreault has the highest upside of the Leonard, Dvorsky, Moore, Wood, Barlow, Benson, Yager, Honzek, Danielsson contingent so he's slowly becoming my first choice. I think they you're fairly likely to get a second one of those guys at 17 anyway. My only pause with Perreault is that I don't know how I'd feel about walking away with Perreault and another risky forward like Sale. That's a ton of boom potential, but I also see bust potential there and getting 0 top 6 forwards from this first round would be brutal for our rebuild. Ideally, I'm hoping for a Perreault- Wood, Perreault-Moore or Perreault- Yager first round. That would be incredible.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

I'm growing to be of the opposite opinion. I think that we're going to get two really solid prospects at 9 and 17 so I want to bet on upside at 9 with the hope that a bust might be compensated for at 17. I think that Perreault has the highest upside of the Leonard, Dvorsky, Moore, Wood, Barlow, Benson, Yager, Honzek, Danielsson contingent so he's slowly becoming my first choice. I think they you're fairly likely to get a second one of those guys at 17 anyway. My only pause with Perreault is that I don't know how I'd feel about walking away with Perreault and another risky forward like Sale. That's a ton of boom potential, but I also see bust potential there and getting 0 top 6 forwards from this first round would be brutal for our rebuild. Ideally, I'm hoping for a Perreault- Wood, Perreault-Moore or Perreault- Yager first round. That would be incredible.

with you there. At this point of the rebuild we should gun for the high potential. Especially at 9th. If we pick someone who is safer because they could be a good 3rd liner f*** that. We have plenty of those guys. I’d rather have them be a top line guy or bust completely

 

[Ulysses31]

with you there. At this point of the rebuild we should gun for the high potential. Especially at 9th. If we pick someone who is safer because they could be a good 3rd liner f*** that. We have plenty of those guys. I’d rather have them be a top line guy or bust completely

what chance do you think he will be a Kucherov? Less than 10% imo, more likely (70%) a josh bailey. I would rather take that swing at 18.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I'm growing to be of the opposite opinion. I think that we're going to get two really solid prospects at 9 and 17 so I want to bet on upside at 9 with the hope that a bust might be compensated for at 17. I think that Perreault has the highest upside of the Leonard, Dvorsky, Moore, Wood, Barlow, Benson, Yager, Honzek, Danielsson contingent so he's slowly becoming my first choice. I think they you're fairly likely to get a second one of those guys at 17 anyway. My only pause with Perreault is that I don't know how I'd feel about walking away with Perreault and another risky forward like Sale. That's a ton of boom potential, but I also see bust potential there and getting 0 top 6 forwards from this first round would be brutal for our rebuild. Ideally, I'm hoping for a Perreault- Wood, Perreault-Moore or Perreault- Yager first round. That would be incredible.

Why does Perreault have the highest upside? Because he is small with flashy hands? I would love to know how you reached this determination, especially with this class. I personally think the wave after the top four or five all have relatively similar upside, but come in very different packages and present very different risks.

Talk of upside is also pretty meaningless if you aren't also discussing the probability of hitting it (which is a real issue of Perreault and Benson in my eyes).

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

with you there. At this point of the rebuild we should gun for the high potential. Especially at 9th. If we pick someone who is safer because they could be a good 3rd liner f*** that. We have plenty of those guys. I’d rather have them be a top line guy or bust completely

Who are these "good 3rd liners" you speak of. Please provide names.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Who are these "good 3rd liners" you speak of. Please provide names.

Ras Perron Kubalik Fabbri Copp

there’s 5 for your 3rd line

 

[HisNoodliness]

Why does Perreault have the highest upside? Because he is small with flashy hands? I would love to know how you reached this determination, especially with this class. I personally think the wave after the top four or five all have relatively similar upside, but come in very different packages and present very different risks.

Talk of upside is also pretty meaningless if you aren't also discussing the probability of hitting it (which is a real issue of Perreault and Benson in my eyes).

Outside of Michkov, Perreault seems like the most creative player in this draft to me. It's really his passing game; he has an ability to hit unexpected players through traffic, no-look passes right on the tape or one touchers that gives me "huge upside" vibes because they show how well he can track and predict everyone on the ice. Couple that with his hands and shot and I feel like he has tremendous offensive upside.

I think that probability of hitting it is meaningful and that's why I like Perreault. Sure there's a future where Wood turns into Tage Thompson, but I don't think it's very likely. I think the odds of Perreault turning into a Kucherov or Zegras are a lot higher. I will admit that in the scenario where Wood busts, you're still getting Rasmussen or Brian Boyle and where Perreault busts, you get nothing. But frankly, I don't think it matters whether we get a 3C vs an AHLer, what matters is whether we get a star vs a second liner. Perreault is that guy who looks like a potential star to me.

 

[Umingmak]

I like Leonard and I like Reinbacher. I don't see Yzerman taking a defenseman, and I don't see Leonard being available at 9.

I think 9OA is our best asset to include in a trade for someone like Kyle Connor, and I hope that's how it's used. My exception would be if there's some backwards universe where Michkov slips that far, but even if he does slide hard, he won't make it past Washington.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Outside of Michkov, Perreault seems like the most creative player in this draft to me. It's really his passing game; he has an ability to hit unexpected players through traffic, no-look passes right on the tape or one touchers that gives me "huge upside" vibes because they show how well he can track and predict everyone on the ice. Couple that with his hands and shot and I feel like he has tremendous offensive upside.

I think that probability of hitting it is meaningful and that's why I like Perreault. Sure there's a future where Wood turns into Tage Thompson, but I don't think it's very likely. I think the odds of Perreault turning into a Kucherov or Zegras are a lot higher. I will admit that in the scenario where Wood busts, you're still getting Rasmussen or Brian Boyle and where Perreault busts, you get nothing. But frankly, I don't think it matters whether we get a 3C vs an AHLer, what matters is whether we get a star vs a second liner. Perreault is that guy who looks like a potential star to me.

So "creativity" is now upside. Got it. You know who isn't very creative? Connor McDavid and Aleksander Barkov.

You are genuinely setting yourself up for disappointment if you are expecting or even looking for a "star" player at 9. If we get an above league average 2nd liner we have done well in that spot.

I think Perreault has very good offensive IQ and a lot of individual skill, but I am not the type to hitch his wagon to average skating, undersized wingers. The road to the AHL is littered with them. I can get behind undersized players, but they need to genuinely be plus skaters, something I don't see in either Perreault or Benson for that matter.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

So "creativity" is now upside. Got it. You know who isn't very creative? Connor McDavid and Aleksander Barkov.

You are genuinely setting yourself up for disappointment if you are expecting or even looking for a "star" player at 9. If we get an above league average 2nd liner we have done well in that spot.

I think Perreault has very good offensive IQ and a lot of individual skill, but I am not the type to hitch his wagon to average skating, undersized wingers. The road to the AHL is littered with them. I can get behind undersized players, but they need to genuinely be plus skaters, something I don't see in either Perreault or Benson for that matter.

I’m curious, did you view Raymond in his draft eligible season with Frolunda as a better skater than Benson this year? Because I see them as in a similar ballpark when it comes to edge work and ability to change pace, which makes me more optimistic on Benson than other players in that mold. But I can definitely see where, if you’re not seeing the skating as a big enough strength, Benson isn’t the preferred option at #9.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I’m curious, did you view Raymond in his draft eligible season with Frolunda as a better skater than Benson this year? Because I see them as in a similar ballpark when it comes to edge work and ability to change pace, which makes me more optimistic on Benson than other players in that mold. But I can definitely see where, if you’re not seeing the skating as a big enough strength, Benson isn’t the preferred option at #9.

I think Raymond was a bit better but both struggled with explosiveness. I still think skating is the single biggest limiting factor with respect to Raymond's ceiling if we are being honest.

 

[NickH8]

So "creativity" is now upside. Got it. You know who isn't very creative? Connor McDavid and Aleksander Barkov.

You are genuinely setting yourself up for disappointment if you are expecting or even looking for a "star" player at 9. If we get an above league average 2nd liner we have done well in that spot.

I think Perreault has very good offensive IQ and a lot of individual skill, but I am not the type to hitch his wagon to average skating, undersized wingers. The road to the AHL is littered with them. I can get behind undersized players, but they need to genuinely be plus skaters, something I don't see in either Perreault or Benson for that matter.

Creativity is absolutely upside. Perreault is an elite playmaker with a good shot to keep the other team guessing.

 

[wingerdinger]

players i like at 9 based on need and the seemingly hardnosed, playoff style roster yzerman is building.

Dvorsky: plays heavy good blend of playmaking and goalscoring instincts.

Yager: Brayden Pointy

Danielson: Dylan Cozens

Leonard: bull in a china shop winger, good iq, great competitor/little concerned about his hands but everything else reminds me of Boldy/Cutter cutter gauthier ect.

Barlow: same as above absolute physical menace excellent shot straight-line speed, if were going to take a winger him and leonard are the onlt two id consider at 9.

Players I wouldnt take but wont be upset if we take at 9:

David Reinbacher: Love this player to bits, we already have our 1RHD. And this draft really deep on the right side imo. Wallander, Dragovic, Gibson, McCarthy, Landen all alternatives that are extremely intriguing to me.

Benson/Perreault: lumping these two players together. diminutive highly skilled player in the Gaudreau/Marner they both going to put up a lot of points in the regular season. But will they allow us to outskill they likes Edmonton, colorado, tampa, bedard ect im skeptical. And pull a nylander and marner against physical opponents relegated to largely harmless perimeter play.

Wood: Slower less physical version of Barlow and Leonard. Has the best vision of the 3 but i prefer the other two more.

Sale: Silky winger biggest boom bust of the players in this range.


Player Id avoid at all cost at 9

Oliver Moore: Great skater big plus, everything else is fools gold. I think he's between Larkin and Helm. Excellent 3C, but not what I'm aiming for at 9. Limited upside. Low risk medium reward.

 

[HisNoodliness]

So "creativity" is now upside. Got it. You know who isn't very creative? Connor McDavid and Aleksander Barkov.

You are genuinely setting yourself up for disappointment if you are expecting or even looking for a "star" player at 9. If we get an above league average 2nd liner we have done well in that spot.

I think Perreault has very good offensive IQ and a lot of individual skill, but I am not the type to hitch his wagon to average skating, undersized wingers. The road to the AHL is littered with them. I can get behind undersized players, but they need to genuinely be plus skaters, something I don't see in either Perreault or Benson for that matter.

I'd argue that both McDavid and Barkov are fairly creative players, but the point stands- there's more than one way to skin a goat. I do think that high creativity lends itself well to being a star player and most of the league's stars are quite smart. NHL bottom lines and the AHL are also littered with guys that have the physical tools-but not the brains- to be stars.

To the point that there's more than one way to be a star, it's not just creativity that you need. Perreault has great stick skills, the ability to pass accurately and a nice shot to accompany his creativity. He is a great mix of offensive tools. He lacks size and speed, but anyone we draft at 9 is going to have some potentially fatal flaws or lack that standout trait which gives them big upside. Perreault has that standout trait between his ears.

Dvorsky isn't fast and wasn't as consistently productive. Wood, Honzek and Danielson lack standout offensive abilities. Yager had consistency issues while not being huge or fast himself. Benson is both smaller and less offensively gifted than Perreault for my tastes. Moore isn't big and lacks truly high end offensive tools besides his wheels. Leonard isn't big and plays a more blue-collar game that's less creative than Perreault. Barlow, Edstrom, Sale, whoever, they're all flawed. Otherwise they'd be going top 5.

Everyone needs to develop in some way. I'm willing to bet that Perreault gets that extra step as a skater, grows an inch, puts on enough mass to fend for himself, and/or is sufficiently creative to overcome his flaws. We have a lot of industrious forwards on this team and in the pipeline. We lack someone with the creativity and skill to dismantle a defense and impose their will on the game offensively. I think that Perreault is our best bet at that guy in this draft because he has the brain for it.

Maybe you want Moore for his speed or Yager for his shot. I don't know, I'd also be really happy with them because I think they're also great prospects, but I think that Perreault has the best combination of traits to become a special player, personally.

 

[ShanahanMan]

How is everyone coping? I’m still so damn heartbroken not only did we not move up but that Chicago of all teams won.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Traded with Vancouver..

Choices based on offensive skill above much else

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Creativity is absolutely upside. Perreault is an elite playmaker with a good shot to keep the other team guessing.

Size and speed is absolutely upside

 

[WingsToPick4th]

View attachment 706788

Traded with Vancouver..

Choices based on offensive skill above much else

I like the idea but Yager could honestly be available at 17 normally. If we got Dvorksy and Leonard/Reinbacher/Benson are there at 11 I do the trade for sure!

 

[jfrank21]

Sorry, I'm a no on the karate kid @ 9. The dude is one step away from being an overager for the class. How someone can throw out Wyatt Johnston as a comparable is pretty confusing. Johnston went in the 20s, which was still considered plenty rich, he had at least some semblance of proving himself on the big stage in international comps, but he lost his entire draft season to covid, so he was much more of an unknown. Danielson has no international play, is amongst the oldest in the class, and doesnt look very likely to break out as some elite scorer at this point. He's had plenty of time to adjust to his league and the production is good, not great. I don't want a 3c from this pick. Not with everyone else who is available. If we want to go "safe" with size and someone who does a lot of the little things right, then go with Ritchie. He's got plenty of runway left for sure. But again, at 9 there are higher upside guys available....this is the year to go for them.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I like Leonard and I like Reinbacher. I don't see Yzerman taking a defenseman, and I don't see Leonard being available at 9.

I think 9OA is our best asset to include in a trade for someone like Kyle Connor, and I hope that's how it's used. My exception would be if there's some backwards universe where Michkov slips that far, but even if he does slide hard, he won't make it past Washington.

If Leonard, Reinbacher and Dvorsky are gone at 9 then I’m for it. Any of the other names like Sale, Moore, Perreault, Wood and others don’t intrigue me much.

What other trade targets are there for pick #9?

 

[lilidk]

Why does Perreault have the highest upside? Because he is small with flashy hands? I would love to know how you reached this determination, especially with this class. I personally think the wave after the top four or five all have relatively similar upside, but come in very different packages and present very different risks.

Talk of upside is also pretty meaningless if you aren't also discussing the probability of hitting it (which is a real issue of Perreault and Benson in my eyes).

I can understand your worry about Perreault , but what about Benson? , He is clearly top six, good defensively, good speed, hockey IQ, always noticable on the ice.

 

[Frk It]

Sorry, I'm a no on the karate kid @ 9. The dude is one step away from being an overager for the class. How someone can throw out Wyatt Johnston as a comparable is pretty confusing. Johnston went in the 20s, which was still considered plenty rich, he had at least some semblance of proving himself on the big stage in international comps, but he lost his entire draft season to covid, so he was much more of an unknown. Danielson has no international play, is amongst the oldest in the class, and doesnt look very likely to break out as some elite scorer at this point. He's had plenty of time to adjust to his league and the production is good, not great. I don't want a 3c from this pick. Not with everyone else who is available. If we want to go "safe" with size and someone who does a lot of the little things right, then go with Ritchie. He's got plenty of runway left for sure. But again, at 9 there are higher upside guys available....this is the year to go for them.

I still think if Danielson was the same player but Swedish this board would love him. Just pretend guys, his last name sounds Swedish pretty much anyways.

I’ll also argue that looking at his stats lacks context in this case because his team was shit. He led his team in points. He was over a ppg last year in his - season. He’s been a consistently productive player for 2 years now despite not having as much help as a lot of other forwards we are trying to compare him to.

 

[lilidk]

I still think if Danielson was the same player but Swedish this board would love him. Just pretend guys, his last name sounds Swedish pretty much anyways.

I’ll also argue that looking at his stats lacks context in this case because his team was shit. He led his team in points. He was over a ppg last year in his - season. He’s been a consistently productive player for 2 years now despite not having as much help as a lot of other forwards we are trying to compare him to.

I d take him with NY pick

 

[wingerdinger]

Sorry, I'm a no on the karate kid @ 9. The dude is one step away from being an overager for the class. How someone can throw out Wyatt Johnston as a comparable is pretty confusing. Johnston went in the 20s, which was still considered plenty rich, he had at least some semblance of proving himself on the big stage in international comps, but he lost his entire draft season to covid, so he was much more of an unknown. Danielson has no international play, is amongst the oldest in the class, and doesnt look very likely to break out as some elite scorer at this point. He's had plenty of time to adjust to his league and the production is good, not great. I don't want a 3c from this pick. Not with everyone else who is available. If we want to go "safe" with size and someone who does a lot of the little things right, then go with Ritchie. He's got plenty of runway left for sure. But again, at 9 there are higher upside guys available....this is the year to go for them.

Look at the Dylan Cozens and Nate Danielson's stats lines are remarkable similar. I find their games very similar. I like Danielson's physical North South speed game. I believe it fits right into the type of team the wings are shaping up to be. We aren't going to out skill teams. We might as well be as mean fast big and hard to beat as possible.