2023 Draft Discussion

[lilidk]

A mock or his usual consolidated scout survey? Typically his lists he surveys scouts and then averages out the rankings.

Sorry , his usual last ranking where he gets Michkov #9

 

[norrisnick]

Sorry , his usual last ranking where he gets Michkov #9

I was just making a sure. A mock with insider scout info would be juicy AF

Though I bet the second he does that, he stops getting access to the scouts.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Well this draft happens in a week and not two years ago. Shane Wright was "generational" talent two years ago.

Yeah he just broke scoring age records for some bums Kucherov and Ovechkin in the K since…

 

[norrisnick]

Yeah he just broke scoring age records for some bums Kucherov and Ovechkin in the K since…

There is a bit of a dispute regarding the overall strength of the KHL since the you know...

 

[newfy]

I didn't read the original argument, just the last few pages of dribble about hindsight drafting with really terrible examples which is what prompted my response. I'm not gonna flip back several pages just to look up the original argument, I'm saying your arguments and examples suck. Read what I'm saying bud.

As for trading down 5 spots for a player in the second round, no GM does that anyways. 5 spots isn't a reach, they just pick the kid they want. The Wings did that with Buium, James, and more importantly Seider (with #6OA at that).

So you didnt read the posts, jumped into a conversation without the context and then tried to tell me what I was saying despite telling you that wasnt it multiple times? Awesome

I'm reading what youre saying. What youre saying doesnt make a point to the actual conversation because you were too lazy to actually read it. Awesome contribution, too bad we cant have more posters like you.

Me saying you can find top 6 players of every play style later in the draft is not just hindsight drafting, its a literal fact and I provided examples of it. Me saying people need to not fall in love with certain play styles and focus on effective hockey players later in the draft isnt hindsight drafting, its a smart strategy that thankfully Yzerman/Draper use.

Thats my last reply though, hopefully you can wrap your head around that this time

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

There is a bit of a dispute regarding the overall strength of the KHL since the you know...

So it’s a little worse at being the second best league in the world, strange argument to make. Though your stance on Michkov is well known, I obviously disagree.

 

[norrisnick]

So it’s a little worse at being the second best league in the world, strange argument to make. Though your stance on Michkov is well known, I obviously disagree.

A little worse translating to what... 5th best?

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

A little worse translating to what... 5th best?

Still the second best league in the world in my opinion.

 

[norrisnick]

Still the second best league in the world in my opinion.

Two full teams peaced out. IMO Sweden is solidly ahead at this point. Things get interesting with the Swiss league and AHL after that.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

The real deal rankings are tomorrow.

 

[lilidk]

Still the second best league in the world in my opinion.

Don't know if it's fare to compare this way but point per game Michkov is much better in KHL than Carlsson in SHL

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

Michkov is NHL ready right now and if not for Putin would be challenging for 1OA.

He will fall between 5-8 and whoever gets him will get a first-line talent in 3-4 years, who will be better than whatever guy they took in that position who wouldn't be NHL ready for 3-4 years anyway.

 

[Christien]

The real deal rankings are tomorrow.

Anybody know what time this starts?

 

[Nut Upstrom]

Anybody know what time this starts?

7PM EST - apologies, I thought you meant the draft. Come on, Bob. It's Thursday already.

 

[Kibe]

I agree, we will start to be a little too small vs some of the other contending teams that have some "meaty-er" guys. But, that is why you get Danielson or Wood at 17 to try to counter it.

At some point it could be:

Benson - Larkin - Raymond
Wood/Danielson - Kasper - Debrincat

I wouldn't be completely opposed to this. Maybe even drop Benson or Raymond down to 3rd line to spread more offense around and play a 3 scoring lines game where they all get roughly the same amount of minutes (or others get more because that line is doing great that game etc.).


Interesting. Don't see Habs getting him, but wouldn't put it past Arizona or Philly (Briere could see him as his clone or something idk)

Problem with this is, 17 would likely go in that DeBrincat trade.

 

[DoMakc]

Yeah he just broke scoring age records for some bums Kucherov and Ovechkin in the K since…

While playing a hockey version of heroball on the worst team in a league with way more opportunities against way lesser competition.Sorry U18 records mean nothing without context.
There are a lot of risks and red flags which a lot of people prefer to ignore, and that without taking into account war, his "contract" and overall state of Russia. He was in same tier as Bedard year ago, not anymore. Some might argue he might be below Fantilli and Carlsson just based on ability as well. Regardless he didn‘t develop well in his last season, which is itself a red flag. And then take into account his size/skating/defensive accumen/attitude, combine that with basically no opportunity to influence his development basically till age of 21, you might not get superstar you are expecting.
It is easy to say i draft for upside without your job being on the line, but the reason he is falling in the ranking is not GMs being "spooked by Russia", they don't want to bet their jobs on him

 

[jkutswings]

Michkov is NHL ready right now and if not for Putin would be challenging for 1OA.

He will fall between 5-8 and whoever gets him will get a first-line talent in 3-4 years, who will be better than whatever guy they took in that position who wouldn't be NHL ready for 3-4 years anyway.

Incoming Hot Take...

I don't doubt his talent, nor that he can be a successful NHL player one day. But I'm perpetually skeptical about small sample sizes on bad teams. I think it's entirely possible that it would take him at least a year or two to add a little muscle and adjust to this league.

So if I'm Yzerman and I have a way to draft him, either I also have a way to sneak him over here in the next 12 months, or I'm not drafting him. The next sensation taking five years to pan out means that Larkin is watching Matlock by the time my roster is ready.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Some might argue he might be below Fantilli and Carlsson just based on ability as well.

Only if you're a really bad scout

 

[norrisnick]

Only if you're a really bad scout

Big 200' centers vs tiny offense only winger. There is more to ability than offense.

Is it possible for small offense only wingers to outshine bigger more well-rounded centers? Yes? Far far less likely. Floors need to be taken into account as well as ceilings. Michkov might have the biggest gap between ceiling and floor of anyone in the draft.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Big 200' centers vs tiny offense only winger. There is more to ability than offense.

Is it possible for small offense only wingers to outshine bigger more well-rounded centers? Yes? Far far less likely. Floors need to be taken into account as well as ceilings. Michkov might have the biggest gap between ceiling and floor of anyone in the draft.

I'm jumping to conclusions a bit, but the way I read the post I responded to is specific to hockey ability. From a true hockey ability, Michkov is closer to Bedard than Fantilli and Carlsson are to Michkov.

I don't view position or physical measurements to be part of "hockey ability". Michkov still has the best scoring and offensive instincts of anyone in the draft, in my opinion. Though Bedard has the better tools which elevates his offensive package above.

If you want to say that Fantilli or Carlsson are close to Michkov because of all possible considerations, then yes, I would agree that there can be a discussion of which one you want to tie yourself to as an organization. There's a reason why he's likely to go outside of the top 3-4.

And there are plenty of players with a substantial gap in potential outcomes, specifically guys expected to potentially draw a premium pick. Matthew Wood, Andrew Cristall, Eduard Sale, Quentin Musty, Gabriel Perreault all strike me as players who have pretty low floors relative to their ceiling and the gap is not necessarily better than Michkov's. When you talk about having the biggest gap between ceiling and floor, it's a bit different when you are looking at Michkov with the skill and instincts that give him a ceiling of being a top 10 player in the NHL. If my upside is world class and my downside is what? One way middle six scoring powerplay specialist? I could certainly do worse.

 

[norrisnick]

I'm jumping to conclusions a bit, but the way I read the post I responded to is specific to hockey ability. From a true hockey ability, Michkov is closer to Bedard than Fantilli and Carlsson are to Michkov.

I don't view position or physical measurements to be part of "hockey ability". Michkov still has the best scoring and offensive instincts of anyone in the draft, in my opinion. Though Bedard has the better tools which elevates his offensive package above.

If you want to say that Fantilli or Carlsson are close to Michkov because of all possible considerations, then yes, I would agree that there can be a discussion of which one you want to tie yourself to as an organization. There's a reason why he's likely to go outside of the top 3-4.

And there are plenty of players with a substantial gap in potential outcomes, specifically guys expected to potentially draw a premium pick. Matthew Wood, Andrew Cristall, Eduard Sale, Quentin Musty, Gabriel Perreault all strike me as players who have pretty low floors relative to their ceiling and the gap is not necessarily better than Michkov's. When you talk about having the biggest gap between ceiling and floor, it's a bit different when you are looking at Michkov with the skill and instincts that give him a ceiling of being a top 10 player in the NHL. If my upside is world class and my downside is what? One way middle six scoring powerplay specialist? I could certainly do worse.

Well, now we're getting into a semantic issue with what constitutes hockey ability. Is it just puck skills and offensive vision? I would imagine everything that factors into hockey would be part of hockey ability.

Pronger had a hell of a lot of hockey ability, but he's a very different player than Kucherov who also has a hell of a lot of hockey ability.

Good scouts ought to look at all aspects that contribute to the game of hockey. If the top end of the hockey ability scale is Gaudreau, sure Michkov is higher than Fantilli and Carlsson. If the things that say... a guy like Barkov or Kopitar bring to the table also factor in then it becomes much more murky.

That list have lower floors than Michkov, but also lower ceilings.

As for potential Michkov downside... Pulkkinen was also once the top U18 world forward/scorer. The jump to the NHL is massive.

EDIT - and to forestall those from flying in in defense of Michkov. I fully acknowledge that offensively he's quite likely the top guy in this draft. And absent geopolitical reasons and his contract he'd be a lock for #2 at the lowest. But for some reason he and he alone is completely immune from any criticisms that do not involve the offensive zone. That's a red flag. He's being brought up in a system that allows him to play like a prime Bure, but without the skating ability to recover for any mistakes. Those are going to be hard habits to break. Especially since it looks like he's going to stay in that environment for 3+ more years. Can he drop into the league a ready made player ala Kaprizov and Panarin? Possibly. But Kaprizov and Panarin being able to do it doesn't mean Michkov can, and it seems a lot of his supporters are banking on that as some sort of certainty.

 

[Realgud]

Big 200' centers vs tiny offense only winger. There is more to ability than offense.

Is it possible for small offense only wingers to outshine bigger more well-rounded centers? Yes? Far far less likely. Floors need to be taken into account as well as ceilings. Michkov might have the biggest gap between ceiling and floor of anyone in the draft.

I keep seeing people say Michkov is "offense only", which is very false.

 

[DoMakc]

I'm jumping to conclusions a bit, but the way I read the post I responded to is specific to hockey ability. From a true hockey ability, Michkov is closer to Bedard than Fantilli and Carlsson are to Michkov.

I don't view position or physical measurements to be part of "hockey ability". Michkov still has the best scoring and offensive instincts of anyone in the draft, in my opinion. Though Bedard has the better tools which elevates his offensive package above.

If you want to say that Fantilli or Carlsson are close to Michkov because of all possible considerations, then yes, I would agree that there can be a discussion of which one you want to tie yourself to as an organization. There's a reason why he's likely to go outside of the top 3-4.

And there are plenty of players with a substantial gap in potential outcomes, specifically guys expected to potentially draw a premium pick. Matthew Wood, Andrew Cristall, Eduard Sale, Quentin Musty, Gabriel Perreault all strike me as players who have pretty low floors relative to their ceiling and the gap is not necessarily better than Michkov's. When you talk about having the biggest gap between ceiling and floor, it's a bit different when you are looking at Michkov with the skill and instincts that give him a ceiling of being a top 10 player in the NHL. If my upside is world class and my downside is what? One way middle six scoring powerplay specialist? I could certainly do worse.

Well, with hockey ability I meant everything that goes into hockey evaluation with political/contractual component out of consideration, sorry if it wasn't clear.

 

[norrisnick]

I keep seeing people say Michkov is "offense only", which is very false.

I'm watching various scouting clips, including the most recent EP one and the only time I see him below the red line is winding up on the breakout. EP even flagged his tendency to prematurely fly the zone. Maybe it's not being highlighted, but you'd think they'd highlight things beyond offense if there was anything to show. The clips for other players go into more detail for other parts of the rink.

If you've got something, I'd love to see it.

 

[jkutswings]

I'm watching various scouting clips, including the most recent EP one and the only time I see him below the red line is winding up on the breakout. EP even flagged his tendency to prematurely fly the zone. Maybe it's not being highlighted, but you'd think they'd highlight things beyond offense if there was anything to show. The clips for other players go into more detail for other parts of the rink.

If you've got something, I'd love to see it.

Russia only allows people to watch Michkov if they're sitting inside the other team's blue line.