2023 Draft Discussion

[lilidk]

I just don't see how Leonard, Dvorsky, and/or Benson won't be available at 9. One of those guys will be available and one of those guys should be our pick.

Let's see Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, Smith it's 5
We have between Reinbacher, Leonard, Dvorsky and Benson should be available to Wings

 

[lilidk]

Understandable. Wood at 9 seems like it would be a stretch. That's why trading for 11OA + Myers would be very beneficial because you could get willander/asp at 11 most likely and wood should be there at 17.

Benson/Dvorsky/Leonard
Willander/ASP
Wood/Danielson/Moore

I was all in on Dvorsky, but for some reason I am not teetering with wanting Benson more now. I don't see how Leonard could fall and I would probably take him over both, just not sure if he is there or not.

Screw it, package all the 2nds and 3rds this year and Bos 1st next year for another 1st and get another guy, why not? This is the year to get as many 1st's as possible isn't it? Not next year.

Entire first looks solid, don't need to overshoot and get another top 20ies.
Hope team improve so much next season so we could trade our first round for something very good

 

[Vector Cereal]

Not sure if anyone has done this, but here’s 10 years of the guys picked at 9, 17, 41, 42, 43. Gives a sense of historically what his kind of draft capital returns:
2010 - Granlund, Hishon, Nemeth, Smith-Pelley, Ross
2011 - Hamilton, Beaulieu, Jaskin, Rask, Saad
2012 - Trouba, Hertl, Heard, Sieloff, Bystrom
2013 - Horvat, Lazar, Hagg, Santini, Petan
2014 - Ehlers, Sanheim, Jacobs, Kamenev, MacInnis
2015 - Meier, Connor, Gropp, Blackwood, Cernak
2016 - Sergachev, Fabbro, Bastian, Dahlen, Kuokkanen
2017 - Ras, Liljegren, Anderson-Dolan, Luostarinen, Samberg
2018 - Kravstov, Smith, Wilde, Drury, Ishakov
2019 - Zegras, Krebs, Korczak, Firstov, Vlasic

I think you’re at least happy with 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016. Probably 2013 and 2019 too. 2018 is a dud. 2017 and 2010 are pretty underwhelming.

If we walk away from this draft with even an Ehlers Sanheim, Trouba Hertl, or Hamilton Saad level combination when these guys are in the NHL, I think we’re in good shape

 

[Reddwit]

If Reinbacher doesn't go in the top 8.

Or Simashev. He seems to be rocketing up the charts.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Not sure if anyone has done this, but here’s 10 years of the guys picked at 9, 17, 41, 42, 43. Gives a sense of historically what his kind of draft capital returns:
2010 - Granlund, Hishon, Nemeth, Smith-Pelley, Ross
2011 - Hamilton, Beaulieu, Jaskin, Rask, Saad
2012 - Trouba, Hertl, Heard, Sieloff, Bystrom
2013 - Horvat, Lazar, Hagg, Santini, Petan
2014 - Ehlers, Sanheim, Jacobs, Kamenev, MacInnis
2015 - Meier, Connor, Gropp, Blackwood, Cernak
2016 - Sergachev, Fabbro, Bastian, Dahlen, Kuokkanen
2017 - Ras, Liljegren, Anderson-Dolan, Luostarinen, Samberg
2018 - Kravstov, Smith, Wilde, Drury, Ishakov
2019 - Zegras, Krebs, Korczak, Firstov, Vlasic

I think you’re at least happy with 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016. Probably 2013 and 2019 too. 2018 is a dud. 2017 and 2010 are pretty underwhelming.

If we walk away from this draft with even an Ehlers Sanheim, Trouba Hertl, or Hamilton Saad level combination when these guys are in the NHL, I think we’re in good shape

It's basically a 1 in 3 chance that the 2nd rounder will hit. For that reason I'd rather package 2 2nds for another 1st in the 16-25 range, or trade 2 2nds for players.

EDIT: I guess it's a good sign that aside from Kravtsov none of the #9 picks have busted. No franchise guys but some pretty good NHLers.
The #17 guys are kind of a mixed bag but aside from Hishon and Beaulieu nobody really busted. (Though Ty Smith looks to be going to Cholowski route)

 

[norrisnick]

Or Simashev. He seems to be rocketing up the charts.

I'm wishing two D get picked head of us.

Chi - Bedard
Ana - Fantilli
CBJ - Carlsson
SJS - Michkov
Mon - Smith
Ari - Reinbacher
Phi - Leonard
Was - Simashev

That would be ideal, IMO.

 

[NickH8]

I'm dreaming of Benson or Michkov. If we passed on Michkov I'd y derstand as I don't have all the info there. If we passed on Benson though I would not feel good.

 

[Detroit Knights]

I'm dreaming of Benson or Michkov. If we passed on Michkov I'd y derstand as I don't have all the info there. If we passed on Benson though I would not feel good.

I just don't see us passing on benson...unless someone is massively better than him that is available like Leonard or Dvorsky (massively probably not the best word but whatever).

 

[Gniwder]

If youre picked in the second round and end up a top 6 player, what are you exactly? A late bloomer. If a skilled "top 6" player has already bloomed, hes not going in the second round, hes going in the first.

That's the whole catch, you're picking kids before they show talent, that's a total crapshoot. The vast majority of them won't be late bloomers, they just continue to suck. If there was an easy way to figure out a late bloomer, guys like Gourde (or even Backhand Luke) wouldn't go undrafted.

A lot of times, late bloomers tend to get picked the year after though, like Mazur. Comments on the pick are funny in hindsight, lol:

Prospect Info: - #70 - Carter Mazur (LW)

Carter Mazur (LW) 6'0 / 168 lbs Tri-City Storm, USHL Heading to the University of Denver for 2021-2022 Profile: Carter Mazur at eliteprospects.com

forums.hfboards.com

Anyways, you're basically saying teams should hindsight draft. Yeah, that would be easy for sure, lol.

 

[Gniwder]

It's basically a 1 in 3 chance that the 2nd rounder will hit. For that reason I'd rather package 2 2nds for another 1st in the 16-25 range, or trade 2 2nds for players.

The only GM that trades down from a 1st to 2 2nds is Holland. Kenny does not have a first rounder this draft.

Most don't specifically for the reason you stated, especially in this draft where 16 - 25 yields a pretty good player with fewer flaws and more talent than average.

 

[ShanahanMan]

You've been wrong about a lot more than just Zadina...don't give yourself too much credit

Like what

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

The only GM that trades down from a 1st to 2 2nds is Holland. Kenny does not have a first rounder this draft.

Most don't specifically for the reason you stated, especially in this draft where 16 - 25 yields a pretty good player with fewer flaws and more talent than average.

Carolina does as well. It does happen, my dude.

And even if Detroit can't trade back into the 1st round a 2nd round pick can be used to pick up players. You can get a 2nd pair defender or 2nd/3rd line winger for that price.

 

[ZDH]

Like what

The following year's 1st rounder...

 

[Pavels Dog]

It's basically a 1 in 3 chance that the 2nd rounder will hit. For that reason I'd rather package 2 2nds for another 1st in the 16-25 range, or trade 2 2nds for players.

It really comes down to 2 things:

- How good is this draft compared to the average draft?
- How good is our scouting compared to the average?

For the first question, it seems like a consensus that this draft is better than average. If it's similar to 2015, that gives a lot of hope for success in the 2nd round (Blackwood & Cernak were taken at those picks, and guys like Hintz, Andersson etc. were taken later that round).

On the second question, I've not personally been super impressed by our 2nd round drafting. However overall I think we are at least average.

If you don't trust that talent will be available or that we can correctly identify it, then the move should be to leverage those picks to move up or acquire a player.

 

[Detroit Knights]

It really comes down to 2 things:

- How good is this draft compared to the average draft?
- How good is our scouting compared to the average?

For the first question, it seems like a consensus that this draft is better than average. If it's similar to 2015, that gives a lot of hope for success in the 2nd round (Blackwood & Cernak were taken at those picks, and guys like Hintz, Andersson etc. were taken later that round).

On the second question, I've not personally been super impressed by our 2nd round drafting. However overall I think we are at least average.

If you don't trust that talent will be available or that we can correctly identify it, then the move should be to leverage those picks to move up or acquire a player.

IDK, we picked up wallinder, aljo, buchelnikov, buium, and berggren in the 2nd round back to 2018. Not terrible..

now...2017 2nd round was a real tragedy..

 

[evolutionbaby]

If we get 2 of Benson, Dvorsky, Leonard, Danielson, Perrault, Reinbacher,Moore, Wood, Barlow, Willander we did well. Some combinations are more desirable but ultimately all of those should become good pros

 

[Pavels Dog]

IDK, we picked up wallinder, aljo, buchelnikov, buium, and berggren in the 2nd round back to 2018. Not terrible..

now...2017 2nd round was a real tragedy..

Yeah it could turn out really good, I'm just not confident writing down all of those guys as good NHLers or even NHLers just yet.

 

[Vector Cereal]

Carolina does as well. It does happen, my dude.

And even if Detroit can't trade back into the 1st round a 2nd round pick can be used to pick up players. You can get a 2nd pair defender or 2nd/3rd line winger for that price.

Yeah I don’t mind making those moves. Really depends on when Yzerman thinks the best time to start competing is. I think our need for RHD is a little overblown in that I’d rather have a winger over Reinbacher if it’s a comparable prospect. Realistically our 2nd pair RHD will only need to be our 4th best defender. As for who the second pair RHD trade candidates are, I’m unsure

 

[Vector Cereal]

It really comes down to 2 things:

- How good is this draft compared to the average draft?
- How good is our scouting compared to the average?

For the first question, it seems like a consensus that this draft is better than average. If it's similar to 2015, that gives a lot of hope for success in the 2nd round (Blackwood & Cernak were taken at those picks, and guys like Hintz, Andersson etc. were taken later that round).

On the second question, I've not personally been super impressed by our 2nd round drafting. However overall I think we are at least average.

If you don't trust that talent will be available or that we can correctly identify it, then the move should be to leverage those picks to move up or acquire a player.

Yeah if we got a Meier, Connor, and Cernak out of this we’re off to the races. The other factor, and I’m not sure if it’s borne out in the data, is if bad teams who have an extra pick in the first tend to do better with that second first than the teams with their own first picking in that vicinity. On one hand, you’d think a bad team would spend more time scouting and thinking about the draft, so they may outperform, but on the other hand does the second pick tend to be used on a riskier prospect because of the insurance of two picks?

 

[NickH8]

I just don't see us passing on benson...unless someone is massively better than him that is available like Leonard or Dvorsky (massively probably not the best word but whatever).

My thing is I think Benson is a step above Dvorsky and Leonard and is a top 3 pick in most drafts.

 

[Detroit Knights]

My thing is I think Benson is a step above Dvorsky and Leonard and is a top 3 pick in most drafts.

REALLY? Better than Leonard? Interesting.

 

[Frk It]

My thing is I think Benson is a step above Dvorsky and Leonard and is a top 3 pick in most drafts.

Guys with his size /skating do not go top 3 in most drafts.

 

[NickH8]

REALLY? Better than Leonard? Interesting.

Yes, and that's as a fan of Leonard. I'm in love with Benson's IQ and playmaking. I think he's that player with the next level playmaking that overcomes not elite skating and being small.

Guys with his size /skating do not go top 3 in most drafts.

See my reply above.

 

[DoMakc]

Guys with his size /skating do not go top 3 in most drafts.

What about guys with Matvei Michkov's size and skating?

 

[Realgud]

My thing is I think Benson is a step above Dvorsky and Leonard and is a top 3 pick in most drafts.

Advanced stats says he's a generational playmaker. I'm curious to see if that fully translates to the NHL level but I certainly wouldn't bet against such an intelligent hard working player. He's an easy first overall talent and would be first in many drafts. Just imo.