2023 Draft Discussion

[NickH8]

Advanced stats says he's a generational playmaker. I'm curious to see if that fully translates to the NHL level but I certainly wouldn't bet against such an intelligent hard working player. He's an easy first overall talent and would be first in many drafts. Just imo.

Yeah I don't think he's a generational playmaker, but he'll for sure be a good top 6 one in my mind, with a very good two-way game.

 

[Frk It]

What about guys with Matvei Michkov's size and skating?

I don’t remember Benson looking better than Bedard at the u18s two years ago.

 

[DoMakc]

I don’t remember Benson looking better than Bedard at the u18s two years ago.

Well this draft happens in a week and not two years ago. Shane Wright was "generational" talent two years ago.

 

[Frk It]

Advanced stats says he's a generational playmaker. I'm curious to see if that fully translates to the NHL level but I certainly wouldn't bet against such an intelligent hard working player. He's an easy first overall talent and would be first in many drafts. Just imo.

This draft is going to be an in interesting case study in drafting off of production vs the eye test.

This should be one of the best draft classes off of statistical seasons players had, but a bunch of the guys who were very productive have some significant flaws.

I think guys like Benson, Musty, Cristall, Heidt, Ziemmer, and others are going to get picked later than their stats/production says they should. Curious to see if teams will be justified in doing that or not.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

This draft is going to be an in interesting case study in drafting off of production vs the eye test.

This should be one of the best draft classes off of statistical seasons players had, but a bunch of the guys who were very productive have some significant flaws.

I think guys like Benson, Musty, Cristall, Heidt, Ziemmer, and others are going to get picked later than their stats/production says they should. Curious to see if teams will be justified in doing that or not.

We're taking Benson and Heidt and we're going to look like geniuses!

 

[Frk It]

Well this draft happens in a week and not two years ago. Shane Wright was "generational" talent two years ago.

Ok, we’ll I think Michkov is a better player today and is a special talent.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Yes, and that's as a fan of Leonard. I'm in love with Benson's IQ and playmaking. I think he's that player with the next level playmaking that overcomes not elite skating and being small.

Well, I have been saying pretty consistently that Yzerman and co. are going to pick someone with the best (speculated) IQ available at #9, whether that is defense or offense.

I thought Dvorsky was supposed to have high IQ and I have read some places that Benson does, as well. That is why I think I have been flip-flopping on both of them.

I like Dvorsky's size and could probably translate that to NHL 2nd line center, but I watch Benson and think of him on Larkin's (or Kasper when/if he is 2C) just flying by everyone and finishing every time on the breakaway. I have seen a lot of highlights on Benson lately and he just knows how to finish. Larkin is pretty good at that too and I see a lot of Larkin in Benson (speed, vision, finish, etc.).

But then I see Dvorsky as an extremely capable 2C, but wouldn't that push Kasper down if he projects like we think he will? FUC*. lmao

 

[ZDH]

If we go Benson, which I hope happens don't get me wrong he's by far my realistic #1 choice @ 9, that gives us a top 6 of Raymond and Benson which is fine but I won't really want anymore small guys or were gonna be too small up front. If we go Benson I don't think we go DeBrincat. It would also make me possibly pass on Cristall, Perron, etc.

Just something to consider.

 

[Detroit Knights]

This draft is going to be an in interesting case study in drafting off of production vs the eye test.

This should be one of the best draft classes off of statistical seasons players had, but a bunch of the guys who were very productive have some significant flaws.

I think guys like Benson, Musty, Cristall, Heidt, Ziemmer, and others are going to get picked later than their stats/production says they should. Curious to see if teams will be justified in doing that or not.

I don't see cristall being very good for some reason. I know he was projected around our pick a few months ago, seen that he has been dropping a bit, but I just don't see it for some reason.

 

[norrisnick]

We're taking Benson and Heidt and we're going to look like geniuses!

Habs took Benson at 5 on this one...

 

[Detroit Knights]

If we go Benson, which I hope happens don't get me wrong he's by far my realistic #1 choice @ 9, that gives us a top 6 of Raymond and Benson which is fine but I won't really want anymore small guys or were gonna be too small up front. If we go Benson I don't think we go DeBrincat. It would also make me possibly pass on Cristall, Perron, etc.

Just something to consider.

I agree, we will start to be a little too small vs some of the other contending teams that have some "meaty-er" guys. But, that is why you get Danielson or Wood at 17 to try to counter it.

At some point it could be:

Benson - Larkin - Raymond
Wood/Danielson - Kasper - Debrincat

I wouldn't be completely opposed to this. Maybe even drop Benson or Raymond down to 3rd line to spread more offense around and play a 3 scoring lines game where they all get roughly the same amount of minutes (or others get more because that line is doing great that game etc.).

Habs took Benson at 5 on this one...

View attachment 719830

Interesting. Don't see Habs getting him, but wouldn't put it past Arizona or Philly (Briere could see him as his clone or something idk)

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Anyone else see the video of the draftees choice of linemates to play with. Lot of Crosby,Mcdavid and Gretzkys.


Benson Danielson and Yager all said eachother.

 

[ZDH]

Not against Danielson at 17. 100% against wood until our 3rd rounder though tbh.

Busty McBustface

 

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

Next Wednesday can't come soon enough

 

[Frk It]

I don't see cristall being very good for some reason. I know he was projected around our pick a few months ago, seen that he has been dropping a bit, but I just don't see it for some reason.

I think Cristall or Heidt would be a great player for us to take a swing on in the second round with that cluster or picks. Sounds like they have slid out of the first round.

We're taking Benson and Heidt and we're going to look like geniuses!

They gave Heidt a 3/9 on compete in The Black Book and the quotes from scouts on him were not too kind.

I would be surprised if Yzerman/Draper were high on him but I would love to grab him in the 2nd round.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I think Cristall or Heidt would be a great player for us to take a swing on in the second round with that cluster or picks. Sounds like they have slid out of the first round.

Do you think Gracyn Sawchyn would be a good pick with one of our 2nd round picks?

 

[Frk It]

Do you think Gracyn Sawchyn would be a good pick with one of our 2nd round picks?

I like him in the 30-40 range, yeah. I’m not as bullish on him as some others on here just due to the size/skating combo, but I think he’s got good skill level and could be one of those guys who looks a lot different after maturing more physically. He’s just so damn light to where I worry if he’ll be able to put on weight.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Like what

People have already pulled out some of your skeletons in your closet in this thread. You can review.

Usually if you’re going to proclaim yourself to be right about everything, you have to prove you’re actually right. Otherwise you’re just MBH

 

[newfy]

That's the whole catch, you're picking kids before they show talent, that's a total crapshoot. The vast majority of them won't be late bloomers, they just continue to suck. If there was an easy way to figure out a late bloomer, guys like Gourde (or even Backhand Luke) wouldn't go undrafted.

A lot of times, late bloomers tend to get picked the year after though, like Mazur. Comments on the pick are funny in hindsight, lol:

Prospect Info: - #70 - Carter Mazur (LW)

Carter Mazur (LW) 6'0 / 168 lbs Tri-City Storm, USHL Heading to the University of Denver for 2021-2022 Profile: Carter Mazur at eliteprospects.com

forums.hfboards.com

Anyways, you're basically saying teams should hindsight draft. Yeah, that would be easy for sure, lol.

Thats not what I'm basically saying at all, can you read?

I'm saying disqualifying a style of play because one has better made up upside is stupid and it happens on this website all the time. Saying not to draft Lind because his upside isnt high enough at 43 is stupid because you would rather a small, skilled junior scorer. As if that small scorer type has a way better chance of being a top 6 player.

With a guy that fast and physical with a shot mixed in, you can still get a quality NHLer. He scores at a good rate for junior plus brings a lot of other things to the table. Saying you dont want one because his "play style" doesnt have enough upside is stupid. Thats what happens every year on this website come draft time, despite the fact that the wings most recent, best picks... were all "low upside" type of picks

 

[Realgud]

This draft is going to be an in interesting case study in drafting off of production vs the eye test.

This should be one of the best draft classes off of statistical seasons players had, but a bunch of the guys who were very productive have some significant flaws.

I think guys like Benson, Musty, Cristall, Heidt, Ziemmer, and others are going to get picked later than their stats/production says they should. Curious to see if teams will be justified in doing that or not.

Excellent post and sums up exactly how I feel about a lot of the CHL players. Very few players fit both the eye test and the production for me. I think it might come from the lack of consistency from game to game from these players. Like, they're very talented but some games they are more invisible and that might be because of the games I've caught, but let's just say that was never an issue with someone like Benson. As you've mentioned, he still has his own flaws and I'm curious to see if he drops because of them and also if he is able to recognize and overcome them. I feel like he still had a baby face at the beginning of the season lol and still looks quite young or in the middle of puberty so I think there's a least some growth potential, and with the added strength could potentially improve his top speed a lot. His skating technique is excellent imo.

It's difficult to imagine all these 95+ points players potentially going into the late first or even second round, but as you've said, they have their own obvious flaws so it's going to be very interesting to look back on this draft. So much talent.

 

[Gniwder]

Thats not what I'm basically saying at all, can you read?

I'm saying disqualifying a style of play because one has better made up upside is stupid and it happens on this website all the time. Saying not to draft Lind because his upside isnt high enough at 43 is stupid because you would rather a small, skilled junior scorer. As if that small scorer type has a way better chance of being a top 6 player.

With a guy that fast and physical with a shot mixed in, you can still get a quality NHLer. He scores at a good rate for junior plus brings a lot of other things to the table. Saying you dont want one because his "play style" doesnt have enough upside is stupid. Thats what happens every year on this website come draft time, despite the fact that the wings most recent, best picks... were all "low upside" type of picks

It's exactly what you're doing, lol.

Bert was a good skater but he certainly didn't have a "shot mixed in", he scored 28 goals in his first 3 seasons COMBINED with Guelph (6, 13, and 9). So any "shot" he has now is purely hindsight (43 goals in his D+2 season, 4th with Guelph). I tried to look for pre-draft videos but couldn't find anything.

Plus absolutely NOBODY is saying physical style of play is bad, they're emphasizing scoring skill over size and physicality. It's obvious everyone would rather have both and good skating too. But having all 3 usually places a prospect in the top 5OA, not where the Wings are picking.

More often than not, picking a kid based on pedigree and "tough to play against" yields Kienan and Aucoin, not Bertuzzi.

 

[newfy]

It's exactly what you're doing, lol.

Bert was a good skater but he certainly didn't have a "shot mixed in", he scored 28 goals in his first 3 season COMBINED with Guelph (6, 13, and 9). So any "shot" he has now is purely hindsight. I tried to look for pre-draft videos but couldn't find anything.

Plus absolutely NOBODY is saying physical style of play is bad, they're emphasizing scoring skill over size and physicality. It's obvious everyone would rather have both and good skating too. But having all 3 usually places a prospect in the top 5OA, not where the Wings are picking.

You still dont get it and obviously cant read. Me talking about Lind having a shot and solid scoring in junior and you cant even piece together that I'm not talking about Bertuzzi. This whole discussion started with someone saying they wanted to trade down from 43 to 48 or so to draft Lind because he doesnt have enough upside.

I'm also not saying anyone is saying physical play is bad. I'm saying people look at that style of play and automatically think its low upside on this website. I'm saying outside of the first round, you can find scoring line contributors with all different styles of play and one shouldnt be pigeon holed into not having as much upside as others, because at that point in the draft, the "scorers" have obvious warts in their game that might make them less effective.

Now before you reply with more dumb shit trying to tell me what I'm saying, read those paragraphs over 2-3 times to make sure you soak it all in

 

[Gniwder]

You still dont get it and obviously cant read. Me talking about Lind having a shot and solid scoring in junior and you cant even piece together that I'm not talking about Bertuzzi. This whole discussion started with someone saying they wanted to trade down from 43 to 48 or so to draft Lind because he doesnt have enough upside.

I'm also not saying anyone is saying physical play is bad. I'm saying people look at that style of play and automatically think its low upside on this website. I'm saying outside of the first round, you can find scoring line contributors with all different styles of play and one shouldnt be pigeon holed into not having as much upside as others, because at that point in the draft, the "scorers" have obvious warts in their game that might make them less effective.

Now before you reply with more dumb shit trying to tell me what I'm saying, read those paragraphs over 2-3 times to make sure you soak it all in

I didn't read the original argument, just the last few pages of dribble about hindsight drafting with really terrible examples which is what prompted my response. I'm not gonna flip back several pages just to look up the original argument, I'm saying your arguments and examples suck. Read what I'm saying bud.

As for trading down 5 spots for a player in the second round, no GM does that anyways. 5 spots isn't a reach, they just pick the kid they want. The Wings did that with Buium, James, and more importantly Seider (with #6OA at that).

 

[lilidk]

Tomorrow McKenzie mock draft

 

[norrisnick]

Tomorrow McKenzie mock draft

A mock or his usual consolidated scout survey? Typically his lists he surveys scouts and then averages out the rankings.