Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[Pierce Hawthorne]

IMO, to keep both Bo and Toewser long-term, both Girard and Manson would have to go. However, that would mean 3 of your 6 D would be lower paid/lower skilled guys, quite possibly rookies. IDK if that's ideal. Plus, a new deal for Rantanen is coming soon.

I'd love to keep both, but I think one of Toews/Bo will probably have to go, and you keep G.

It would be tricky but it can be done.

They absolutely shouldnt be spending more than $1-1.5M on bottom pairing guys.

For next year for example, assuming the cap jumps up $4M to $87.5M, Toews just gets that full raise essentially.


Then in 2025 it rises another ~$5M to $92.5M, and you trade Girard and replace him with a $1.5M Dman. That would be a combined $8.5M in cap space created. Rantanen gets $3.25M of it to sign at $12.5M Byram gets the remaining $5.25M to sign at $9M.

It can work... It just means not having really any cap space to spend on the roster anywhere else and the depth of the defense takes a hit but you keep the Top 4 in tact(Though trading Manson is probably just a benefit to the team anyway).


Of course, Landy return pretty much ensures we lose one of Bo or Toews(Probably Bo as Toews will be signed before we know either way Landy's future)

We're at the point now where the only chance they really have to continue icing good depth is if the teams drafting legitimately improves. We basically need Kovalenko to be a legit 3rd liner, and we are going to need the likes of Ritchie, Gulyayev, Behrens, Malinski, Foudy, Hanzel, to make it as legit NHL guys, probably need 3 of them in the next 2-3 years to make that jump successfully.

 

[MacKaRant]

Ok I'll play. If Byram does outplay Toews and steals his spot on the 1st pair do you want a 2nd pairing guy making that kind of money? And how much will Byram demand?

Are you advocating we don't sign Toews?

If Byram can prove to be a guy who can stay healthy and be a good defender in his own zone and is outplaying Toews 2 years from now (as long as that's not because Toews' play has fallen off of a cliff), then that's a good problem to have.

 

[The Moops]

Mackinnon makes the most money this year by a large margin

When we win the cup this year it's going to sting for teams that are also top heavy (EDM)

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

Nope… bonuses are weird with cap and LTIR. There is a specific accrual for it and the Avs didn’t have a bank for it to cover the overage.

If the games played group get their bonuses, they’ll essentially add to next years cap hit.

OK thanks. So if they have room without LTIR, then it would have absorbed some of the bonuses and not carryover the full amount. But since the full amount carried-over (I think), it means they had no room and had to use some LTIR. I thought they were close but didn't use Landy's LTIR in the end... but I guess I was wrong...

So if the Eller retention wasn't for bonuses, it really means they had another deal lined-up that fell through...

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

OK thanks. So if they have room without LTIR, then it would have absorbed some of the bonuses and not carryover the full amount. But since the full amount carried-over (I think), it means they had no room and had to use some LTIR. I thought they were close but didn't use Landy's LTIR in the end... but I guess I was wrong...

So if the Eller retention wasn't for bonuses, it really means they had another deal lined-up that fell through...

The full amount did not carry over since Byram hit all 4 bonuses for $850k.

Edit: Actually nevermind, I think he did only hit 3. Thought his +/- was a lot better than it actually was lol. And Newhook mised the time on ice bonus by less than 20 minutes over the full year on LOC lol.

 

[Balthazar]

Are you advocating we don't sign Toews?

I'd rather wait until the end of the season to make a decision. If we re-up Toews IMO Byram is gone after his bridge contract. He'll be up at the same time as Rantanen and either he'll ask for too much money or will want to leave for lack of proper 1st pairing opportunity.

 

[sethro109]

If by some miracle you can get Toews for anying starting with a 6, then yes. You should absolutely sign him. But I don't see why the guy would sign for anything less than 9 million. This will be his only pay day in the NHL. And if that's the case we have to let him walk. Signing him for 9 kills any semblance of depth next year. We'll be so top heavy that last year's run will be the norm.

I also believe we need to get rid of Manson as well. If he could stay healthy, he'd be worth his contract, but he's just too injury riddled. And unlike Landy's long term injury, we can't bury him on LTIR.

 

[95snipes]

If by some miracle you can get Toews for anying starting with a 6, then yes. You should absolutely sign him. But I don't see why the guy would sign for anything less than 9 million. This will be his only pay day in the NHL. And if that's the case we have to let him walk. Signing him for 9 kills any semblance of depth next year. We'll be so top heavy that last year's run will be the norm.

I also believe we need to get rid of Manson as well. If he could stay healthy, he'd be worth his contract, but he's just too injury riddled. And unlike Landy's long term injury, we can't bury him on LTIR.

The extra year helps. If his best offer in UFA is 7x9M then the Avs can offer 8x7.875M for the same dollar.

Girard should have value, but if my options are a) dump Girard for nothing and sign Toews or b) lose Toews as a UFA, I'm taking option A every time.

 

[Avs9296]

I'd rather wait until the end of the season to make a decision. If we re-up Toews IMO Byram is gone after his bridge contract. He'll be up at the same time as Rantanen and either he'll ask for too much money or will want to leave for lack of proper 1st pairing opportunity.

If you believe Toews will age well, you sign him and deal Byram if it comes to it.

If you let Toews walk and keep Byram you get no assets back and probably kept the worse defenseman of the 2 (at least for the next couple years).

If you keep Toews you can deal Byram who would have great value and could probably bring back a 2C that's pretty cost controlled.

 

[Balthazar]

If you believe Toews will age well, you sign him and deal Byram if it comes to it.

If you let Toews walk and keep Byram you get no assets back and probably kept the worse defenseman of the 2 (at least for the next couple years).

If you keep Toews you can deal Byram who would have great value and could probably bring back a 2C that's pretty cost controlled.

Why not wait until the end of the season to make your decision? There are so many excellent reasons to do that.

1- Short of winning the Norris, Toews can't really become significantly more expensive than he is now
2- If he regresses he will be a lot cheaper
3- We'll know if Byram can play a full season or not
4- We'll know how good Byram is and if he can play 1st pair going forward

 

[MacKaRant]

Why not wait until the end of the season to make your decision? There are so many excellent reasons to do that.

1- Short of winning the Norris, Toews can't really become significantly more expensive than he is now
2- If he regresses he will be a lot cheaper
3- We'll know if Byram can play a full season or not
4- We'll know how good Byram is and if he can play 1st pair going forward

I completely agree and have even said in the past (Rumor: - 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing) that it's to Colorado's benefit to wait and see with Toews, much like Tampa is doing with Stamkos. The one caveat here is if we can get him locked up well below market value because the player prefers stability and a hedge against a career-altering injury.

I just don't think that any hypothetical growth in Byram's game should have an that much of an impact on whether we lock up Toews or not.

 

[sethro109]

The extra year helps. If his best offer in UFA is 7x9M then the Avs can offer 8x7.875M for the same dollar.

Girard should have value, but if my options are a) dump Girard for nothing and sign Toews or b) lose Toews as a UFA, I'm taking option A every time.

Girard has good value for a second pairing guy. Makar is the best defenseman in the world. He doesn't need Toews as a partner to work. Toews won't be playing on the second pair if we keep him. We're just overloading the front, just waiting for the back to blowout. Gotta hang onto the good value contracts and use the savings throughout the rest of the lineup.

 

[Balthazar]

The one caveat here is if we can get him locked up well below market value because the player prefers stability and a hedge against a career-altering injury.

It didn't happen with any Av player, I don't see why it would happen with Toews. He'll want market value like the other Avs.

 

[henchman21]

Unless Toews gets a career threatening injury or plays all year or is a middle pairing 30 point guy (both unlikely).... he's going to be in heavy demand regardless. He could regress a bit more and be 45 point guy in a full season and a team will still want him for 8x7.

 

[Chiarelli]

There are other aspects to this. Toews would be blocking Byram on the depth chart for the next 3-4 years.

Is there only one seat in the press box ?

 

[MacKaRant]

It didn't happen with any Av player, I don't see why it would happen with Toews. He'll want market value like the other Avs.

Yeah, that's why I think there is no real motivation for the Avs to commit now unless they feel they are getting a meaningful discount (i.e. significantly more than $250K) off of their internal projections on what he will demand at the end of this season.

 

[Balthazar]

Unless Toews gets a career threatening injury or plays all year or is a middle pairing 30 point guy (both unlikely).... he's going to be in heavy demand regardless. He could regress a bit more and be 45 point guy in a full season and a team will still want him for 8x7.

Toews is Kadri part II. We'll see if they go in a different direction.

Kadri wanted to stay, the Avs wanted to keep him but "in the end it's a business decision" (which is exactly what Toews said yesterday).

 

[Metallo]

Vladar would be worse case scenario for me. Incredibly average and costs even more than Francouz. We should be trying to spend less on our backup goalie, not more.


I assume Francouz would go the other way. Either that or he's likely done for the year in which case we LTIR him.


Edit: Hard to trust the source though quite frankly. Kid is 18, but apparently he works for Dobber so maybe?

 

[Chiarelli]

Toews is Kadri part II. We'll see if they go in a different direction.

Kadri wanted to stay, the Avs wanted to keep him but "in the end it's a business decision" (which is exactly what Toews said yesterday).

Disagree here. Toews will have somewhere between 315 and 397 regular season nhl games to his name ending this season entering UFA.

Kadri had 739 going into UFA last summer while playing a much more physical style of game on top of that.

Avs will have much more appetite to keep Toews imo.

 

[ANewHope]

I just don’t get what incentive Toews has to sign for 7-.7.5. He has less games played in the NHL than Girard and we’ve seen time and time again that fans/analytics care about age more than GM’s do. Toews in theory projects as someone who should age well.

He was top 5 in even strength points in his “down” year. Team should be stronger this year and with Makar/Bryam’s health concerns it’s unlikely he gets a reduced role. Unless he’s just terrified of regression/major injury/focused on giving us a discount why not wait until the cap jumps and use that as leverage with Colorado?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I just don’t get what incentive Toews has to sign for 7-.7.5. He has less games played in the NHL than Girard and we’ve seen time and time again that fans/analytics care about age more than GM’s do. Toews in theory projects as someone who should age well.

He was top 5 in even strength points in his “down” year. Team should be stronger this year and with Makar/Bryam’s health concerns it’s unlikely he gets a reduced role. Unless he’s just terrified of regression/major injury/focused on giving us a discount why not wait until the cap jumps and use that as leverage with Colorado?

Two ways, neither of which are necessarily likely IMO, just possibilities.

1. He's being genuinely honest when he says he wants to retire as an Avs and spend the rest of his career here, and he's actually prepared to take a discount to make that happen. Feels very unlikely but you never know, despite what some here will try and tell you, players do in fact take discounts to play on teams they really want to play with. We see how the Toews/Makar dynamic.

2. The Avs offering the 8th year. This feels like it would be a more likely scenario to have happen next June versus right now... But if Toews and his camp think something like 7 years and $8-8.5M is a possibility in July, the Avs offering an 8th year for similar money could be enough to get him to accept and get that aav down into the low to mid 7s.


But basically yeah, Toews would almost certainly have offers next July for $8-9M on a 7 year deal. The only way he takes less then $8M is if he moves down from what he can get and the Avs find some common ground between the two sides, like he said.


Personally I think the Avs should go up to ~$8M at least with him. That number would be fully covered by next years cap increase most likely. Anything beyond that becomes a lot more tricky to work.

 

[Richard88]

Just looking at Dmen likely available at the TDL and wonder if Edmundson will be someone the Avs target.

Despite being a LHS instead of a RHS he does still tick a lot of boxes that Colorado typically like when trading for guys, like:

- Playoff experience (cup winner with STL and finals with MTL);
- good in the locker room (eg. already wearing an A in WSH)
- manageable caphit (already 50% @ $1.5m, so if WSH retain half he'll only have a caphit of $875k which would be really easy to fit in).
- probably attainable without a 1st rounder.

Injury problems are a concern but if he has a healthy season there's probably appeal. Theres also history between the GM'd as CMac recently acquired Eller from them.

Stylistically that would give Girard a solid partner on the 3rd pair, along with helping the PK and offering insurance for Manson.

Toews - Makar
Byram - Manson
Girard - Edmundson
JJ - Malinski

That's a really well-rounded D group with a nice blend of puck-movers and big shutdown guys.

On a side note, the Avs could probably also use a legit 4C for depth down the middle, so may as well make Washington a one-stop-shop and get Dowd too. At 50% retained his caphit would only be $650k, or 75% it would be $325k. Edmundson and Dowd for a combined $1.2m caphit would be a shrewd way of maximizing capspace.

 

[ANewHope]

I get the discount possibility. I know some disagree but I do think Makar helped the Avs even if he benefitted from it as well. I just think Toews agent has to know the potential for a huge deal is in play right now. I guess the risk/confidence in staying healthy/not regressing could also play a factor. 8th year is a good point.

A 1D who teams could talk themselves into having 5 really good years left? In an offseason where the cap jumps? Unless the Avs offer 8.5 I don't see it getting done. Hopefully I'm wrong. Avs should have made the tough decisions with the d-core last offseason after winning the cup.

 

[AvsMakar08]

The full amount did not carry over since Byram hit all 4 bonuses for $850k.

Edit: Actually nevermind, I think he did only hit 3. Thought his +/- was a lot better than it actually was lol. And Newhook mised the time on ice bonus by less than 20 minutes over the full year on LOC lol.

All of our prospects or young players that we have traded away seems to be busting out big time. Newhook, Red Baron and Timmins might all be busts. Players that leave Avs seem to be regressing.

I guess that's how it is playing with MacK, Rants and Makar. They make other players seem to be much better at times.

 

[Balthazar]

Just looking at Dmen likely available at the TDL and wonder if Edmundson will be someone the Avs target.

He has a bad back