Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[redacted]

As long as you have the cap, I don't mind the risks on these longer term post ELC contracts on core guys. They have a tendency to work out well. The issues present when you take chances on guys who are not core level and when you don't have the cap space. I do worry a bit about Ottawa's space for this and next season. This year I think they have only like 900k with Pinto still to get under contact. Next year they have 14m available with ~5 guys to sign. It isn't super tight, but there isn't huge room either considering they'll be replacing 2 top 9 guys in that amount and whatever Pinto gets if he's not moved to Boston.

That's all pretty manageable though. If they find a taker for Joseph, it pretty much solves everything contract wise in the near term.

 

[Foppa2118]

For anyone upset with how last year played out, the issue shouldn't be that they didn't keep Kadri. It should be that they didn't bring in a 2C.

I loved how Naz fit on the team, and defended him and said he'd have a bounce back contract year when half this place wanted him gone, but he's not the only pathway to a Stanley Cup.

And signing Manson didn't prevent the Avs from bringing in a 2C last year. For whatever reason, they changed their calculus, or deals fell apart, and they didn't follow through on what I'm pretty sure was another plan.

I just don't see their plan being to go into the playoffs with Compher at 2C. Or with just the deadline moves they made. They almost assuredly had other plans. Critique them for the deals they made or didn't make, but they're not stupid enough to have those deadline moves as anywhere near Plan A.

For instance, if the Avs trade for RyJo at 50% at the deadline instead of the summer, then all the issues people have with Manson or losing Kadri or last year in general might have looked very different.

It's always very results oriented when we talk about last year, but there are things could have changed those results, that don't include keeping Kadri or not resigning Manson.

Like Landy or Val being available, Manson not having a high ankle sprain that wouldn't heal, or a 2C trade at the deadline that Manson's presence wouldn't have prevented. The main problem with last year was bad luck, and not following through with likely better deadline plans.

To follow up on this, hasn't anyone wondered if maybe the Avs had been setting up and talking to the Preds about trading for Johansen at 50% at the deadline, but the deal fell apart because he got cut by a skate and had season ending surgery on his ankle 8 days before the deadline?

Or that maybe Adam Henrique was another target, but he got a knee injury also 8 days before the deadline that kept him out until right before the end of the regular season in April?

Or maybe ROR was another target, but either he said he didn't want to go back to Colorado and wouldn't re-sign there, or St Louis didn't want to trade him to the Avs because of their rivalry the previous season?

If one of those deals goes down, especially RyJo who's known to step it up in the playoffs, we might be having completely different conversations right now given how beatable everyone except Vegas looked. Especially if it might have bought time for Val to come back.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Yeah I don't see all that much risk to these dealsfor Ottawa quite frankl(Outside of the obvious random bad injury luck I guess). Stutzle, Batherson, and Brady are already outplaying the contracts they signed by quite a bit. Sanderson is lauded by Sens fans as being the beat D they have already.


The only guy who carries some risk is Norris, and that's mostly just because of the injury situation he went through last year. If he's healthy he should be performing pretty close to the value of that contact(Maybe some concern about his ability to generate chances but we'll see).


They're in pretty great shape. Though they do still need to solve goaltending and build some quality depth to surround that core with. But they're in good spot to have lots of space to get those things done as the cap starts increasing.

 

[Foppa2118]

You don't get credit for what you're trying to do, you get credit for what you actually do.

It's not about giving credit though. It's about being realistic about the reasons for their failure last year, and losing Kadri and re-signing Manson didn't cause the bad injury luck or prevent a 2C trade.

 

[Balthazar]

Everyone is talking about the Sens goaltending but Dorion obviously thinks that Korpisalo can be their Georgiev (ie: long time NHL backup that can become a legit starter when put in a bigger role).

IMO it can happen. I like this move a lot better than his previous bets on broken Matt Murray and old ass Cam Talbot.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Makar making 9 million for the next 4 seasons is pretty pretty nice.

Until you realize Josh Manson is making $4.5M for 3 of those 4 years.


It's basically the EJ/Mack situation all over again. But hey, if they can somehow find a way to win another cup again under those similar circumstances, that'd certainly be great!

 

[S E P H]

Senators have to guarantee their youth loads of money and bank on them now, I think they learned hardcore first-hand with Stone and Karlsson that nobody wants to play in that market.

 

[NateTheGreat]

Until you realize Josh Manson is making $4.5M for 3 of those 4 years.


It's basically the EJ/Mack situation all over again. But hey, if they can somehow find a way to win another cup again under those similar circumstances, that'd certainly be great!

Sure Manson’s contract isn’t great, but would you also want to be paying Makar his market value for the next 4 years or have him on one of the best contracts in the league? I prefer the latter.

Also, I don’t think Manson’s contract is a boat anchor to the level that EJ’s was, on top of the fact that he’s not a cornerstone player of the franchise for the last decade so there is no emotional attachement to moving him.

In the words of Kyle Dubas on whether the Avs can win the cup again; we can and we will.

 

[redacted]

Senators have to guarantee their youth loads of money and bank on them now, I think they learned hardcore first-hand with Stone and Karlsson that nobody wants to play in that market.

With the markets, I think one of the drivers there is simply winning. If you're not one of the top 5 or so markets... If you win and build a contender, you can get guys to stick around even in the smaller markets. If you don't win, odds are high you lose them. At first nobody wanted to stay in Tampa and all of the Stamkos drama about going to Toronto was everywhere. Stammer obviously stayed, but since Tampa has won, nobody wants to leave. Or the Isles... yeah technically New York market, but that was a team that always had issues attracting and keeping players. Even lost Tavares. They started winning, they get guys to stay or sign on with them.

This is part of the reason why I don't get the whole hatred of the mushy middle teams pushing to be better. Many markets are not Cup or bust. They need to prove they can win to attract and keep talent. Winning also improves their budget and keeps the finances as healthy as possible.

 

[S E P H]

With the markets, I think one of the drivers there is simply winning. If you're not one of the top 5 or so markets... If you win and build a contender, you can get guys to stick around even in the smaller markets. If you don't win, odds are high you lose them. At first nobody wanted to stay in Tampa and all of the Stamkos drama about going to Toronto was everywhere. Stammer obviously stayed, but since Tampa has won, nobody wants to leave. Or the Isles... yeah technically New York market, but that was a team that always had issues attracting and keeping players. Even lost Tavares. They started winning, they get guys to stay or sign on with them.

This is part of the reason why I don't get the whole hatred of the mushy middle teams pushing to be better. Many markets are not Cup or bust. They need to prove they can win to attract and keep talent. Winning also improves their budget and keeps the finances as healthy as possible.

I agree with that, Oilers are probably the best example of a location nobody wants to be, but then they see McDavid and Draisaitl and want to go play there like we saw with Jack Campbell. I do think places like Tampa are more eye-appealing than boring cold cities like Ottawa and Buffalo when all three locations have losing teams.

 

[redacted]

On the Makar deal... it is kinda important to note that Makar's deal only bought 1 year of UFA. There's chatter as to why on that and it really isn't a secret. An 8 year Makar likely would have been pushing 11m.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

Until you realize Josh Manson is making $4.5M for 3 of those 4 years.


It's basically the EJ/Mack situation all over again. But hey, if they can somehow find a way to win another cup again under those similar circumstances, that'd certainly be great!

I just don't see how we win another cup without Landy. He's such an important player and his contributions can't be replaced

 

[redacted]

I agree with that, Oilers are probably the best example of a location nobody wants to be, but then they see McDavid and Draisaitl and want to go play there like we saw with Jack Campbell. I do think places like Tampa are more eye-appealing than boring cold cities like Ottawa and Buffalo when all three locations have losing teams.

Oh certainly, I'd rather live in Tampa than Buffalo by a mile. Just winning cures the ills though. Ottawa's bet is they have a winner here and if it works, they'll be attractive to play for until they suck again.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I just don't see how we win another cup without Landy. He's such an important player and his contributions can't be replaced

Meh I think there's still avenues to winning tbh. Getting an elite 2C would go a long way towards achieving that. Especially one that was also fantastic defensively to replace some of what we lost with Landy.


Wingers really aren't that important generally speaking, but I would say Landy played the role of a Center quite a lot on his line which definitely makes him more important than your typical winger. But I really don't think he's done at all. He's going to be play again and honestly, maybe this is me being way too optimistic but I think he comes back at like 95% of the level he was at before.


Purely hypothetical and this obviously can't happen. But let's say the Avs were able to add one player from any team in the league for free tomorrow... Ignoring McDavid, if you could put Nico Hischier as the 2C for this group and with his contract moving forward, this core wins a cup again for sure IMO.

If the Avs had spent the assets this summer and got Lundholm out of Calgary instead of RyJo in Nashville, I think we'd have a real shot to win this year. Even still I do think winning this year isn't dead by any means, we just need a lot more things to go right.


I think there's a world where Callum Ritchie is a pretty damn good 2C in 2-3 years time as well... I'm just not sure the core will be good enough at that point to win it all. The regression for guys like Toews, Mack, Mikko, Landy will be very real at that point.

 

[NateTheGreat]

On the Makar deal... it is kinda important to note that Makar's deal only bought 1 year of UFA. There's chatter as to why on that and it really isn't a secret. An 8 year Makar likely would have been pushing 11m.

There’s an argument to be made that the extra let’s say $2M in cap room we gain thru our prime contention window from going 6 years instead of 8 with Makar is more valuable to the team than the extra 2 years of UFA. The cup that we won is good evidence for that.

Makar’s contract is one of the best in the league, period end of story.

 

[redacted]

There’s an argument to be made that the extra let’s say $2M in cap room we gained from going 6 years instead of 8 with Makar was more valuable to the team than the extra 2 years of UFA. The cup that we won is good evidence for that.

Makar’s contract is one of the best in the league, period end of story.

I don’t disagree that the space helped, I actually fully agree with that. Just saying there are reasons the contract landed where it did.

I find a bit of humor in the drilling of Toronto on the Matthews contracts… Makar’s current deal is much the same as the Matthews’ current deal. Higher end of current RFA comparables at their positions. Short term where only 1 UFA year is bought. Setting up for a big contract at the end. We don’t know if Makar will go the short term as the end of his or not… but both set themselves up for a big payday very early in their careers.

The initial ask from the Makar camp was huge too. Eyes are certainly set on cashing in at the end of this deal.

FTR Makar’s deal is very good and he’s worth more.

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

The Avs went six years out of the ELC with both Mikko and Cale. It’s a term they feel comfortable with to get a slightly lower AAV. MacK got 7, so in a similar range too.

The Avs stars have been their best value contracts by far. It’s the role players who really don’t seem to take any discounts in Colorado.

 

[redacted]

The Avs went six years out of the ELC with both Mikko and Cale. It’s a term they feel comfortable with to get a slightly lower AAV. MacK got 7, so in a similar range too.

The Avs stars have been their best value contracts by far. It’s the role players who really don’t seem to take any discounts in Colorado.

6 years is long enough to plan around, but doesn’t cost them a ton at the end to keep the AAV from skyrocketing. With Mikko they got 2 years of UFA.

IIRC Mikko started at 5 years as the ask as well.

 

[NateTheGreat]

I don’t disagree that the space helped, I actually fully agree with that. Just saying there are reasons the contract landed where it did.

I find a bit of humor in the drilling of Toronto on the Matthews contracts… Makar’s current deal is much the same as the Matthews’ current deal. Higher end of current RFA comparables at their positions. Short term where only 1 UFA year is bought. Setting up for a big contract at the end. We don’t know if Makar will go the short term as the end of his or not… but both set themselves up for a big payday very early in their careers.

The initial ask from the Makar camp was huge too. Eyes are certainly set on cashing in at the end of this deal.

FTR Makar’s deal is very good and he’s worth more.

Makar’s next contract will be a blank cheque and deservedly so. The Avs won’t have a choice but to pay him what he wants or lose him.

Agree on the Leafs stuff, I never agreed that Matthews’ contract was as bad as it was made out to be. Even with his latest extension, I view it as a good deal for both sides. AM’s playoff failures are so overblown, but that’s an entirely different discussion.

I’m just happy we have Cale locked up at a discount for his absolute prime years.

 

[Balthazar]

Makar’s current deal is much the same as the Matthews’ current deal.

Crazy how so many people don't understand this.

Makar's cap hit is good but being able to buy only 1 UFA year from your star player is just not good.

 

[Muffin]

Until you realize Josh Manson is making $4.5M for 3 of those 4 years.


It's basically the EJ/Mack situation all over again. But hey, if they can somehow find a way to win another cup again under those similar circumstances, that'd certainly be great!

Manson's contract is at worst market value. GM pay up for these kind of defenseman, did you not see Buffalo pay EJ 3.25M?

 

[ANewHope]

Crazy how so many people don't understand this.

People understand it. I just think most understand Cale could have absolutely killed us. That if he wanted to sign long term for 8 years it would have cost alot. That even on a 6 year deal he could have asked for the moon. He basically had no comparisons on defense on paper given how elite he was right out of the gate.

Matthews signed for what like 5 years with a 11.6 cap hit before his new deal? Makar went 6 with a 9 mill cap hit. Makar easily could have went after a few more mill. His agent would have had the leverage. Avs got lucky with his current deal and won't be getting lucky on the next one.

 

[JH21]

So now we are hating on Manson?

The dude who was a warrior for us a big reason we won the Cup? Then he got severely banged up in that cup run and missed a good part of last year??? That Manson?

You guys are insane.

 

[Balthazar]

People understand it. I just think most understand Cale could have absolutely killed us. That if he wanted to sign long term for 8 years it would have cost alot. That even on a 6 year deal he could have asked for the moon. He basically had no comparisons on defense on paper given how elite he was right out of the gate.

Matthews signed for what like 5 years with a 11.6 cap hit before his new deal? Makar went 6 with a 9 mill cap hit. Makar easily could have went after a few more mill. His agent would have had the leverage. Avs got lucky with his current deal and won't be getting lucky on the next one.

Matthews played 3 seasons on ELC while Makar played only 2.

I don't think the Avs got lucky, the contract that Makar signed at the time was pretty much unheard of for a dman. 9M per almost exclusively RFA years, kicking in after only 2 years of ELC.

You have to look at the contract considering what they knew back then, not what you know now (Conn Smythe and the other contracts that were signed after him).

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

I don’t see how Makar’s contract is anything like Matthews. He’s the better player and signed for a significantly lower AAV. Only two years shy of max term too.

That contract has been a huge win for Colorado.