Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[Foppa2118]

Well, we seem to have kinda cottoned on to something with trading picks for Grubauer, Kuemper, and now Georgiev and being a legitimate cup contender across all three of their tenures...it's a pretty effective model with our defense and pro-scouting staff, so I'm not really worried about the goalkeeping situation anymore.

That's the Avs "recipe."

Every few years they find a buy low candidate at 1G, 2C, and 2W, who comes with a bargain AAV, and are motivated to prove themselves. Then when they do and price themselves out, they let them go, and repeat the process.

They did this with Kadri, RyJo, and to an extent Kerfoot at center. Could do a version of it by bumping Colton up to 2C in a couple years while they hope to break Ritchie in at 3C.

They did it with Burky, ERod, and possibly Drouin and Tatar at wing. Sort of did it with Saad getting his salary retained one year before UFA and then letting him walk. Probably planned on doing it with Nuke, but he was too good to let go.

And they did it with Grubauer, Kuemper, and probably Georgiev in goal. Did it partially with Varly getting him cheap, but then they re-signed him to a decent deal. I would guess they're hoping Prosvetov locks down 2G, then they get him on a cheap 3 year deal next summer, and he takes over for Georgiev in 25-26. If he doesn't look ready, they'll just repeat the process.

They have to do this, because this is what allows them to keep their big stars. It's a hybrid version of PL's pre cap recipe, who opened the vault to keep his stars, but then pinched pennies with the role players, and traded them when they were due raises to save money.

 

[Avaholic29]

I think it's pretty obvious that Girard is here to stay. Just last game it was Manson on the 3rd pair and not G. Manson will be moved and G or Bo will play their off side. No way will Cmac replace 25 year old with a 35 year old.

Manson playing less tells me he’s not 100%, wouldn’t be surprised to see him moved also but I don’t see girards skill set as a need, that 5m will be needed.

 

[EdAVSfan]

The downside to it is that they've spent what is effectively more than an entire year's worth of draft picks on starting goaltenders in that time frame:

Kuemper: 1st + 3rd + Timmins (roughly equivalent to a ~2nd in value)
Gruabauer: 2nd + Orpik buyout
Georgiev: 3rd + 3rd + 5th

That's effectively a total of 1st + 2 2nd's + 2 3rd's + 5th.

And that doesn't even include the picks/prospects spent on backups (eg. Dubnyk for a 5th) and 3rd stringers (eg. 6th for JoJo).

Going back further, Varlamov for a 1st (which turned into Filip Forsberg).

It's a viable strategy, but one that's not without its downsides.

Any strategy will have its downsides.

But I think this is the better strategy. It has more positives than committing to one guy long term.

 

[sethro109]

Manson playing less tells me he’s not 100%, wouldn’t be surprised to see him moved also but I don’t see girards skill set as a need, that 5m will be needed.

The time to move G will be when Bo's bridge is over. G will have 1 year left on his contract and will most likely generate a lot more interest then.

If we're lucky Manson will do us a favor and hang em up at the end of the season. I know that's unlikely and we'll probably have to attach some assets to move him.

 

[Foppa2118]

RyJo's buyout in 2024 would be a flat $1.33m for 2 years, which would probably be manageable.

Manson's on the other hand has a big penalty in 2025/26 to the point where it probably isn't worth doing it, neither in 2024 or 2025...

Manson 2024 buyout:
2024/25: $1.5m
2025/26: $3m
2026/27: $1m
2027/28: $1m

Manson's 2025 buyout:
2025/26: $2.8m
2026/27: $800k

Either way that's ~$3m in dead capspace in 2025/26 which would be the first year of Rantanen, Byram, and Georgiev's new deals. No way you want a disgusting buyout like that anchoring your roster at that point, so I don't see a buyout as a legitimate solution with Manson. In fact I'd hazard a guess that his contract may have been structured this way precisely to make it somewhat buyout proof as it would be very difficult for the Avs to buy him out in contending years.

It makes no sense to buy out Manson. As you point out, it's going to cost around $3M either way in 2025-26, and that's when they'll have the cap crunch.

Plus they'll have to replace him with a $1M defenseman just to save $500k toward the cap, and if they sign a $1M defenseman, he most likely won't be an upgrade on Manson anyway.

They'll likely trade him, probably in 2025. With retention if need be. They'll be able to find a taker for that. Even at 50% ($2.25M) for one year, it makes way more sense than being saddled with that buy out.

 

[JH21]

Not counting Landeskog, we will be projected to have 36.5 mil in 24/25 when Rantanen, Georgiev and Byram will be free agents. Keep in mind Byram will be a RFA though.

13.5 for Rantanen
5.5 for Georgiev
7.5 for Byram

26.5 total.

Then the following year is we factor in those deals we will still have 15 mil in space which will be plenty to sign Makar.

As I see it we can still keep everyone. We will need some ELC guys to step in but we have quite a few prospects who will be ready around that time.

Behrens and Gulyayev on D. Kovalenko and Ritchie at forward. We will be just fine.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Behrens and Gulyayev on D. Kovalenko and Ritchie at forward. We will be just fine.

1... Maybe 2 of them will pan out. We'll likely struggle with depth for the foreseeable future like all spiraling former contenders as our players age.

That doesn't mean we can't get some savvy retooling and mortgage the future part 2 for another run. But it won't be as simple as 4 prospects fill the holes. It never has been for the Avs.

 

[Nihiliste]

Manson to LTIRetire is the trade we need but probably won’t get

 

[CobraAcesS]

Also forgot about Kovalenko... For better or worse I'd bet he's slotted into the 3rd line RW slot next year.

That was my first thought, still don't trust just penciling in guys, but yeah...

If Girard moves, Malinksi developing to a bottom pair plus level this year could be important as well. We have him one more year right?

 

[Mighty Makar]

What a great day. Toews re-signed, now I’m off to see Wu Tang/Nas with my gf in 90 min. Ya’ll have a great night.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I would actually trade Byram and Manson if they decide to move two guys instead of one... Girard is still signed for 3(?) more years after this year and at a very reasonable $5M cap hit for 2nd pairing duties. Byram only gets 1 more year at $3.85M before he ends up costing likely $8-9M on a 6-8 year deal and that contract would kick in the exact same time as Rantanen. Almost impossible to do.


Plus, Byram should fetch a pretty damn solid return if they moved him. *Assuming he doesn't regress this year and finally puts together a healthy season, a lot of teams would be lining up to grab the guy, $3.85M cap hit for 1 more year and then RFA and a guy lots of teams probably see as top pairing material for them(Just not so much for us with Toews here now for the rest of his career).


You could probably get a really solid 2C option for Byram, or perhaps a true 2nd pairing RD partner for Girard to play with.

Depends on the playoffs for me.. I'm still not convinced in Girard's ability to play top four minutes in the playoffs.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

What a great day. Toews re-signed, now I’m off to see Wu Tang/Nas with my gf in 90 min. Ya’ll have a great night.

Don't sound so happy. We all know you f**ken hate this team.

 

[Sea Eagles]

Are people already complaining about Johansen ? After one solitary game with us ? After screening a few shots for goals ? After winning 5-2 on a teams opening night at their stadium ? A pretty good team, too ?

I love this board haha

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Are people already complaining about Johansen ? After one solitary game with us ? After screening a few shots for goals ? After winning 5-2 on a teams opening night at their stadium ? A pretty good team, too ?

I love this board haha

Johansen contributed literally nothing to this though... What's the point of mentioning it

 

[RockLobster]

I know pure hypothetical, but Chicago isn't trading for G. Davidson loves size and girth to his D.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I had completely forgot G has a 9-team NTC starting next July 1st. That could come into play when the Avs need to move one of their Dmen.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Hate to say it, but I wonder if Byram gets moved for a comparable forward or a bunch of good pieces + picks.

 

[Avaholic29]

Hate to say it, but I wonder if Byram gets moved for a comparable forward or a bunch of good pieces + picks.

Girard has to be the guy.

 

[Richard88]

Just been playing around on capfriendly and realised that the cap in 2024 could potentially actually work simply by moving Wood's $2.5m caphit.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen
Lehkonen - RyJo - Nichushkin
~$1m LW - Colton - Kovalenko
Olofsson ($775k) - Pavel - O'Connor

Toews - Makar
Byram - Girard
Behrens (ELC) - Manson
JJ ($775k)

Georgiev
Annunen/Prosvetov ($775k)

That's a 21 man roster that just about fits under an $87.5m cap ceiling.

Obviously you're counting on Kovalenko as a legit 3rd liner, along with either a prospect or another cheap reclamation at 3LW, but that doesn't really seem like out of the realm of possibilities given that the Avs are a destination for guys wanting bounce-back years on a good team (eg. ERod, Tatar, Drouin, Nichushkin 4 years ago, etc).

That all said, it's probably unlikely that the Avs want to move on from Wood, especially so soon after signing him to a 6 year deal. That just doesn't seem to be th way that they operate. But it's at least an option if it becomes unattractive to move Manson/G/Byram/Lehkonen.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Just been playing around on capfriendly and realised that the cap in 2024 could potentially actually work simply by moving Wood's $2.5m caphit.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen
Lehkonen - RyJo - Nichushkin
~$1m LW - Colton - Kovalenko
Olofsson ($775k) - Pavel - O'Connor

Toews - Makar
Byram - Girard
Behrens (ELC) - Manson
JJ ($775k)

Georgiev
Annunen/Prosvetov ($775k)

That's a 21 man roster that just about fits under an $87.5m cap ceiling.

Obviously you're counting on Kovalenko as a legit 3rd liner, along with either a prospect or another cheap reclamation at 3LW, but that doesn't really seem like out of the realm of possibilities given that the Avs are a destination for guys wanting bounce-back years on a good team (eg. ERod, Tatar, Drouin, Nichushkin 4 years ago, etc).

That all said, it's probably unlikely that the Avs want to move on from Wood, especially so soon after signing him to a 6 year deal. That just doesn't seem to be th way that they operate. But it's at least an option if it becomes unattractive to move Manson/G/Byram/Lehkonen.

Manson isn’t reliable enough to keep around. But Girard isn’t suited for that role either.

You can’t have 4.5 of dead cap at 2RD and 5M at 3LD. They should seriously consider trading either or both with the obvious caveat being Byram (staying healthy and anticipated salary expectations).

 

[Richard88]

Manson isn’t reliable enough to keep around. But Girard isn’t suited for that role either.

You can’t have 4.5 of dead cap at 2RD and 5M at 3LD. They should seriously consider trading either or both with the obvious caveat being Byram (staying healthy and anticipated salary expectations).

Girard's actual time on ice isn't reflective of a typical 3rd pairing Dman, so his caphit isn't actually an issue. It's Manson's caphit relative to usage/availability that is the issue on the blueline.

 

[John Mandalorian]

According to capfriendly, the cap wil increase to 87.5, then to 92.0. In the first of them, Girard’s contract has more term but a higher cap %. Vice versa when it goes to 92.

At some point Girard’s contract will be appealing again (one has to think), but which of the two has the greater appeal: more term or lower cap%?

 

[Richard88]

According to capfriendly, the cap wil increase to 87.5, then to 92.0. In the first of them, Girard’s contract has more term but a higher cap %. Vice versa when it goes to 92.

At some point Girard’s contract will be appealing again (one has to think), but which of the two has the greater appeal: more term or lower cap%?

Depends on the team. Teams like Winnipeg or Edmonton who tend to struggle to attract and keep players would probably value term more than most teams.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Depends on the team. Teams like Winnipeg or Edmonton who tend to struggle to attract and keep players would probably value term more than most teams.

That's true. What prompted the thought though was a comment that you trade Girard as Byram's RFA expires. It may not be that cut and dry. And theres a case to be made for using next summer facilitate the following summer.

 

[JH21]

Johansen contributed literally nothing to this though... What's the point of mentioning it

But did we win vs a contender on the road or didn't we?

Last I checked you basically said our whole season is dependant on Johansen.