Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[henchman21]

I think it's pretty obvious that Girard is here to stay. Just last game it was Manson on the 3rd pair and not G. Manson will be moved and G or Bo will play their off side. No way will Cmac replace 25 year old with a 35 year old.

G or Bo will have to prove this year they can handle the work on their offside. Thus far that hasn't happened.

Though Manson's usage is a signal he's not in the highest esteem either.

 

[sethro109]

G or Bo will have to prove this year they can handle the work on their offside. Thus far that hasn't happened.

Though Manson's usage is a signal he's not in the highest esteem either.

I really don't think they have to prove much. I don't think management or Bednar is happy with Manson's health. They're going to spend some picks or prospects to move him this off season.

 

[henchman21]

I really don't think they have to prove much. I don't think management or Bednar is happy with Manson's health. They're going to spend some picks or prospects to move him this off season.

They kinda do... Bednar clearly doesn't like G there as he avoids it at this point. Byram hasn't looked good on his off hand nearly ever. For them to stick with it for years as a plan, one of them needs to play at a high level there for a longer period of time. That hasn't happened yet (though I think they can).

I don't think it is Manson's health... it is his play. He was terrible last season and was terrible in the first game.

 

[sethro109]

They kinda do... Bednar clearly doesn't like G there as he avoids it at this point. Byram hasn't looked good on his off hand nearly ever. For them to stick with it for years as a plan, one of them needs to play at a high level there for a longer period of time. That hasn't happened yet (though I think they can).

I don't think it is Manson's health... it is his play. He was terrible last season and was terrible in the first game.

Manson was never healthy last season. And we learned in preseason that he's still dealing with something. He was skating better in the first game. So that's promising, but we'll see how the next few play out.

G is here for 2 more years while we have Bo on his bridge. Then I suspect is when he'll be moved. Or in the unlikely scenario that Bo asks for the moon and the Avs are unwilling to pay, then we move Bo.

Girard isn't just some 3rd pairing guy. His usage has never been that. He plays over 20 minutes a night. Bednar loves shuffling his D men to best fit whatever scenario is playing out on the ice. Even if he's not penciled in at the top four he's playing top for minutes.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I think the Avs will try very hard to extend Byram this summer to a long-term contract so they know what to do with G this offseason.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I think the Avs will try very hard to extend Byram this summer to a long-term contract so they know what to do with G this offseason.

Think Byram and Girard could be in a bit of a competition this season to see who takes the 2nd pairing LD spot going forwards.

 

[henchman21]

Manson was never healthy last season. And we learned in preseason that he's still dealing with something. He was skating better in the first game. So that's promising, but we'll see how the next few play out.

G is here for 2 more years while we have Bo on his bridge. Then I suspect is when he'll be moved. Or in the unlikely scenario that Bo asks for the moon and the Avs are unwilling to pay, then we move Bo.

Girard isn't just some 3rd pairing guy. His usage has never been that. He plays over 20 minutes a night. Bednar loves shuffling his D men to best fit whatever scenario is playing out on the ice. Even if he's not penciled in at the top four he's playing top for minutes.

Manson hasn't been healthy since 2019... that isn't going to suddenly reverse and stick. I'm not sure he was really skating any better, but the result was actually worse... he was trapped in his own zone and was something like 35% xGF. I know people don't want to admit what has been happening for years now, but Manson is not good and he's just getting worse. Him suddenly returning to his form from 17/18 is very unlikely.

I agree that G won't be a 3rd pairing guy. Cap wise, one of RyJo, Manson, or G will have to be gone next year. Whether that is buyout or trade, somebody there is gone. To me, G is the guy you keep and you figure out the RD spots, but it is hard to say with how those players all play.

 

[Murzu]

Trade both Girard and Manson after the season and replace them with cheaper players, acquired via UFA or trades or promote people internally. It's not that hard if there is will. Then our cap structure will be fine again.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Trade both Girard and Manson after the season and replace them with cheaper players, acquired via UFA or trades or promote people internally. It's not that hard if there is will. Then our cap structure will be fine again.

I would actually trade Byram and Manson if they decide to move two guys instead of one... Girard is still signed for 3(?) more years after this year and at a very reasonable $5M cap hit for 2nd pairing duties. Byram only gets 1 more year at $3.85M before he ends up costing likely $8-9M on a 6-8 year deal and that contract would kick in the exact same time as Rantanen. Almost impossible to do.


Plus, Byram should fetch a pretty damn solid return if they moved him. *Assuming he doesn't regress this year and finally puts together a healthy season, a lot of teams would be lining up to grab the guy, $3.85M cap hit for 1 more year and then RFA and a guy lots of teams probably see as top pairing material for them(Just not so much for us with Toews here now for the rest of his career).


You could probably get a really solid 2C option for Byram, or perhaps a true 2nd pairing RD partner for Girard to play with.

 

[Pokecheque]

Trade both Girard and Manson after the season and replace them with cheaper players, acquired via UFA or trades or promote people internally. It's not that hard if there is will. Then our cap structure will be fine again.

I think it'll take a lot more than willpower to find a 2nd pairing guy and a 3rd pairing guy who will likely be playing a lot of top four minutes with Makar and Byram almost assuredly missing time throughout the year AND fit it all under the cap.

 

[ABasin]

They kinda do... Bednar clearly doesn't like G there as he avoids it at this point. Byram hasn't looked good on his off hand nearly ever. For them to stick with it for years as a plan, one of them needs to play at a high level there for a longer period of time. That hasn't happened yet (though I think they can).

I don't think it is Manson's health... it is his play. He was terrible last season and was terrible in the first game.

He was quite bad, yes. As was Nichushkin. But as you said in another thread, got to give people 4/5/6 games to get it going.

 

[BobRossColton]

All the capfriendly scenarios.

 

[henchman21]

He was quite bad, yes. As was Nichushkin. But as you said in another thread, got to give people 4/5/6 games to get it going.

Yeah time should be given before screaming about anything. That's not really what was stated here though. I'm saying here that Manson was down in the lineup because he hasn't been good. Bednar would love to have him in the top 4 over a D on their off hand, but his play hasn't supported that thus far.

 

[Balthazar]

One thing for sure is Bednar doesn't play G or Byram on the right side because he likes it.

 

[Richard88]

Yeah if Landy does indeed return, the writing is on the wall for Girard or Byram essentially... Maybe Manson.

The good news though, is they have all the main positions signed in those 15 playrers... You're looking at:


Landy - Mack - Mikko
Lehky - RyJO - Nuke
Wood - Colton - ????
LOC - ???? - ????


Toews - Makar
Byram - Manson
Girard - ????


George
???

You know, Byram's $3.85m caphit is an interesting number given that it's pretty much the amount that would need to be freed up to make the roster work next year...

Below is a projected 21 man roster without Byram, which has $1.5m in capspace.

Essentially, if you can trade Byram for an ELC forward/center (who can be added anywhere in the lineup bumping others down as necessary) you'd be rolling with a 22 man roster and ~$500k in capspace which would be a good amount to have for cap acrual purposes.

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Nichushkin
Lehkonen - RyJo - Rantanen
Wood - Colton - Kovalenko
Olofsson ($775k) - Pavel - O'Connor

Toews - Makar
Girard - Manson
Behrens ($925k) - 6D $775k
7D $775k

Georgiev
Annunen/Prosvetov $775k

Now obviously opening up Manson/Girard/Lehkonen's capspace would free up more cap than Byram, but Byram's number would be enough if they wanted to go that route - so long as you can find decent $775k guys for depth roles.

Not saying I would trade Byram, just that you could make the cap work by moving only him if you wanted to go that route.

 

[Foppa2118]

Good deal on Toews, but I just hope this doesn't mean they'll trade Byram. I think that would be a mistake.

Despite the narrative here, in all but 3 out of the last 14 years (this year is a question mark) they've had good center depth at both 2C and 3C.

They don't need to trade a young stud D man about to enter his prime for a 2C. They have plenty of other ways to find a good one. But Toews deal is going to make the cap crunch even harder to fill out a lineup in 2025.

 

[Richard88]

It is all really dependent on performance. If G plays like he did 3 years ago, there will certainly be a team willing to take him on and pay decent. There is a bit of threading the needle due to his size, but if his play is good, it can be figured out. If it isn't, he's going to be fairly tough to move. This goes for Manson and RyJo too... though if Manson or RyJo fail, buyouts will be on the table. Yeah that extends the hits... but you get immediate relief and the extension beyond the deals is only around a million.

RyJo's buyout in 2024 would be a flat $1.33m for 2 years, which would probably be manageable.

Manson's on the other hand has a big penalty in 2025/26 to the point where it probably isn't worth doing it, neither in 2024 or 2025...

Manson 2024 buyout:
2024/25: $1.5m
2025/26: $3m
2026/27: $1m
2027/28: $1m

Manson's 2025 buyout:
2025/26: $2.8m
2026/27: $800k

Either way that's ~$3m in dead capspace in 2025/26 which would be the first year of Rantanen, Byram, and Georgiev's new deals. No way you want a disgusting buyout like that anchoring your roster at that point, so I don't see a buyout as a legitimate solution with Manson. In fact I'd hazard a guess that his contract may have been structured this way precisely to make it somewhat buyout proof as it would be very difficult for the Avs to buy him out in contending years.

 

[henchman21]

RyJo's buyout in 2024 would be a flat $1.33m for 2 years, which would probably be manageable.

Manson's on the other hand has a big penalty in 2025/26 to the point where it probably isn't worth doing it, neither in 2024 or 2025...

Manson 2024 buyout:
2024/25: $1.5m
2025/26: $3m
2026/27: $1m
2027/28: $1m

Manson's 2025 buyout:
2025/26: $2.8m
2026/27: $800k

Either way that's ~$3m in dead capspace in 2025/26 which would be the first year of Rantanen, Byram, and Georgiev's new deals. No way you want a disgusting buyout like that anchoring your roster at that point, so I don't see a buyout as a legitimate solution with Manson. In fact I'd hazard a guess that his contract may have been structured this way precisely to make it somewhat buyout proof as it would be very difficult for the Avs to buy him out in contending years.

It was certainly structured that way, but the 3m in savings could be worth it if the price to offload is too high and you have a year to figure out that $3m. Not ideal, but could be an option depending how he plays.

 

[thedoctor]

oh man, we are DEFINITELY not re-signing Georgiev. I hope everyone realizes that.

 

[henchman21]

oh man, we are DEFINITELY not re-signing Georgiev. I hope everyone realizes that.

Nor should they… keep cycling through these backups who could be starters.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Nor should they… keep cycling through these backups who could be starters.

Hell we might have just picked up his replacement quite frankly.

 

[Avs44]

oh man, we are DEFINITELY not re-signing Georgiev. I hope everyone realizes that.

Well, we seem to have kinda cottoned on to something with trading picks for Grubauer, Kuemper, and now Georgiev and being a legitimate cup contender across all three of their tenures...it's a pretty effective model with our defense and pro-scouting staff, so I'm not really worried about the goalkeeping situation anymore.

 

[Richard88]

Well, we seem to have kinda cottoned on to something with trading picks for Grubauer, Kuemper, and now Georgiev and being a legitimate cup contender across all three of their tenures...it's a pretty effective model with our defense and pro-scouting staff, so I'm not really worried about the goalkeeping situation anymore.

The downside to it is that they've spent what is effectively more than an entire year's worth of draft picks on starting goaltenders in that time frame:

Kuemper: 1st + 3rd + Timmins (roughly equivalent to a ~2nd in value)
Gruabauer: 2nd + Orpik buyout
Georgiev: 3rd + 3rd + 5th

That's effectively a total of 1st + 2 2nd's + 2 3rd's + 5th.

And that doesn't even include the picks/prospects spent on backups (eg. Dubnyk for a 5th) and 3rd stringers (eg. 6th for JoJo).

Going back further, Varlamov for a 1st (which turned into Filip Forsberg).

It's a viable strategy, but one that's not without its downsides.

 

[Ceremony]

The downside to it is that they've spent what is effectively more than an entire year's worth of draft picks on starting goaltenders in that time frame:

Kuemper: 1st + 3rd + Timmins (roughly equivalent to a ~2nd in value)
Gruabauer: 2nd + Orpik buyout
Georgiev: 3rd + 3rd + 5th

That's effectively a total of 1st + 2 2nd's + 2 3rd's + 5th.

And that doesn't even include the picks/prospects spent on backups (eg. Dubnyk for a 5th) and 3rd stringers (eg. 6th for JoJo).

Going back further, Varlamov for a 1st (which turned into Filip Forsberg).

It's a viable strategy, but one that's not without its downsides.

 

[BobRossColton]

So in the next off season, package G+Meyers+1st for a goalie+D. Next next off-season package Manson+1st for FWD+D.

Easier said than done.