Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[Richard88]

Probably a 1st or 2nd. This offseason was weird, but I can't imagine anybody lining up for Manson if he continues his trajectory.


I like this bet a lot better than the Manson/Newhook. Manson should have never been re-signed. That was a critical error and cost the Avs the chance to really solve the 2C issue... and they did that because of Newhook. Who they thought would grow into the role. Which was a huge scouting miss that should have been seen from a mile away. I was screaming it before he was even drafted that he wasn't that guy and it was only more clear as the years went on (despite people using random highlights to say otherwise).

What would you have done instead for 2C? Sign Kadri 7x7?

 

[thedoctor]

I like this bet a lot better than the Manson/Newhook. Manson should have never been re-signed. That was a critical error and cost the Avs the chance to really solve the 2C issue... and they did that because of Newhook. Who they thought would grow into the role. Which was a huge scouting miss that should have been seen from a mile away. I was screaming it before he was even drafted that he wasn't that guy and it was only more clear as the years went on (despite people using random highlights to say otherwise).

I agree on most of that -- I agree RyJo has more upside in general, which helps the bet, and that Manson/Newhook were linked.

I ask you the same thing I ask everyone that criticizes that decision: realistically, no hindsight, what would you have done differently for the 2RD/2C position? I think we all forget how grim it was that offseason.

Same for the RyJo hater crew too -- ok, you don't like RyJo, you think the decision has too much risk, fine, I get it. What is your realistic alternative?

In both cases I think it was/is a zero sum game.

 

[Mighty Makar]

What would you have done instead for 2C? Sign Kadri 7x7?

I think Kadri would have re-signed for less than $7M. I think it was reported that it would be under $6.5M.

 

[nammerus]

I agree on most of that -- I agree RyJo has more upside in general, which helps the bet, and that Manson/Newhook were linked.

I ask you the same thing I ask everyone that criticizes that decision: realistically, no hindsight, what would you have done differently for the 2RD/2C position? I think we all forget how grim it was that offseason.

Same for the RyJo hater crew too -- ok, you don't like RyJo, you think the decision has too much risk, fine, I get it. What is your realistic alternative?

In both cases I think it was/is a zero sum game.

It’s not hard to find a semi-competent #2C. These type of players move around every year. CMac just refuses to go and pay the price for one. Instead we go out of the way to pay top dollar for oft-injured aging #4-5D, and 3rd/4th liners.

 

[Muffin]

Just playing around on capfriendly with the idea of trading Manson in 2024 to make room for Toews...

What quickly becomes apparent is how small the Avs blueline is without Manson, especially if you introduce Behrens and consider that JJ may not come back for another season.

Toews - Makar
Byram - Girard
Behrens - xxx

Gulyayev - Malinski
Hanzel - Clurman
Ahcan
Schueneman
Aamodt

Manson is regressing fast, but looking at that lineup above it seems pretty logical to move Girard (or Byram) instead.

The Avs are also well stocked with puck-moving LHD prospects too so at least stylistically Girard would be easier to replace too.


Don't you know that henchman is a die-hard CBJ fan (and CBJ drafted RyJo)?

That's why trading Girard over Manson is the right move. Avs have prospect in that pipeline to replace Girard but has nothing to replace Manson. Also we all know that GMs love overpaying for big physical defense like Manson in UFA so replacing him will not be cheap.

 

[Richard88]

That's why trading Girard over Manson is the right move. Avs have prospect in that pipeline to replace Girard but has nothing to replace Manson. Also we all know that GMs love overpaying for big physical defense like Manson in UFA so replacing him will not be cheap.

Toews - Makar
Byram - Manson
Behrens - xxxx

That does look much better balanced, on paper. Though by then Manson should probably be pencilled on the 3rd pairing ideally.

Fwiw Girard has a 9 team M-NTC that starts in 2024. The timing of that is convenient as it gives CMac an opportunity to explore trading him before it probably becomes next to impossible to trade him after that with a 9 team NTC (where Girard can effectively block moves to all teams who'd realistically have interest in a small LHD).

 

[Foppa2118]

The front office is full of morons.

I respect your opinion, but they did turn a with a 48 point season into a Stanley Cup winner in six years. That wasn't a fluke.

 

[Ararana]

I respect your opinion, but they did turn a with a 48 point season into a Stanley Cup winner in six years. That wasn't a fluke.

The Avs having a 48 point season was the real fluke. They actually had a pretty decent roster that year. Patty Roy was the real problem.

But it gave us Makar, so all is forgiven.

 

[Foppa2118]

The Avs having a 48 point season was the real fluke. They actually had a pretty decent roster that year. Patty Roy was the real problem.

But it gave us Makar, so all is forgiven.

Bednar coached that team.

 

[Ararana]

Bednar coached that team.

He did. Because Roy bailed on them a month before camp.

I think it was a MacKinnon interview after he won the cup, he talked about how deflated the room was after Roy jumped ship. I put all the blame for that season on him. Nobody loves Patty Roy more than Patty Roy.

 

[henchman21]

What would you have done instead for 2C? Sign Kadri 7x7?

I agree on most of that -- I agree RyJo has more upside in general, which helps the bet, and that Manson/Newhook were linked.

I ask you the same thing I ask everyone that criticizes that decision: realistically, no hindsight, what would you have done differently for the 2RD/2C position? I think we all forget how grim it was that offseason.

Same for the RyJo hater crew too -- ok, you don't like RyJo, you think the decision has too much risk, fine, I get it. What is your realistic alternative?

In both cases I think it was/is a zero sum game.

I've heard that Kadri would have re-signed for 6.5x7 or 6x8. Take that with a grain of salt though.

There are always options out there to solve 2C and middle pairing defensemen needs. It isn't this black and white of just Kadri or just Manson/Newhook. Kadri could have been re-signed. Could have made a sign and trade for Horvat. Could have gone for a rental like ROR. Could have gone risky with a 1 year signing like Domi/Strome. Could have sold Byram. They could have dumped EJ and signed Kadri along with still having Newhook and Manson. There is so much grey here that simply saying it had to be this or that is framing the debate unfairly.

To me, there were two paths that I would have investigated heavily. First would have been to put Byram on the market and tried to find a long-term 2C solution. A kid like Byram suddenly loosens a lot of names, and while I wouldn't have traded him for Dach (as I'm not a huge Dach at center fan)... that's a name that would have been a viable option. IMO there was (and still is) an option to move Bryam for a younger player in than 2C with legit 1C upside. That sort of move to solve the issue for 5-7 years would have been my first option.

I think the other realistic is simply choosing Kadri over Manson. Kadri was certainly going to regress and the contract would end poorly. Zero question about that. It would have certain window shutting moment at somepoint in the future. You also know he fit like a glove here and was still playing at a high level. If you got 3 years out of him at a 2C level, you secured 3 years of a potential to contend. Last year certainly would have been better... and I'd say that having Kadri over RyJo for the 2 seasons would be a lot more comforting. Certainly not without risk, but this would have been a known risk. The Avs were in the negotiations until Klingberg signed in Anaheim. They just were not willing to pay the price.

On Manson... I simply wouldn't have signed him or anybody for that role. Let the top 4 group of Makar, Toews, Byram, and G just figure it out with one of the lefties on their offside. Sign some cheap RD for depth. If/when it proved to be an issue, simply pay a 2nd for a RD rental. They are available every deadline and that cost is worth it to not get tied into a bad contract.

 

[Foppa2118]

He did. Because Roy bailed on them a month before camp.

I think it was a MacKinnon interview after he won the cup, he talked about how deflated the room was after Roy jumped ship. I put all the blame for that season on him. Nobody loves Patty Roy more than Patty Roy.

I don't remember Nate saying anything that critical.

That wasn't a good team though. This was their team that year based on ice time. Don't remember the exact lines/pairings.

Landy - MacK - Mikko
Ghetto - Duchene - Iginla (39 years old)
Nieto - Soderberg - Comeau
Grigo - Mitchell - Compher

Beauchemin - Barrie
Barberio - EJ
Zadorov - Tyutin

R. Bourque, G. Bourque, Colborne, Martinesen, Goloubef, Wiercioch

After that they drafted Makar when many team's wouldn't have. They traded for Girard. They drafted Byram. And they traded for Toews. Also traded for Burakovksy. Signed Nuke. And traded for Lehkonen and Manson during their Cup year.

That's an entirely different team and a completely rebuilt blueline from that 48 point season, which is perhaps the biggest strength of the team, and helped them win the Cup.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

I am fine with re-signing Toews, but for longer than 5 years or more than 7.5M there better not be any movement or trade protection.

 

[henchman21]

I am fine with re-signing Toews, but for longer than 5 years or more than 7.5M there better not be any movement or trade protection.

I think the only way you get Toews under 8 is to give on term. If you want 7.5… it’s probably for 7 or 8 years.

 

[Foppa2118]

Further to my post above here's an AGM for 2025 with a $92m cap where I've made the following signings to squeeze things in with a 21 man roster.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Rantanen $12m
Toews $7.5m
Byram $8m
Georgiev $5m
Colton at 2C and Ritchie on an ELC at 3C.

Contrary to what I said above it may actually be workable without losing a core player (eg. Byram or Rantanen), BUT the estimates above are optimistic imo and you're also counting on a prospect in a middle 6 center role on an ELC which is also optimistic to say the least.

Realistically you're probably going to have to move on from Girard to make things work, but that might be an acceptable loss if Behrens, Gulyayev, and or Hanzel can adequately replace him in a second pairing role on an ELC.

As you mention, the'd probably have to catch some breaks to get some of those prices. Feels tough to pull off but maybe.

Mikko might be hard to get at $12M in two years with a $92M cap. I've been guessing $12.6M for Mikko to match Nate's salary, and there's a decent chance he could get more in UFA.

Not clear if Toews will sign for less than $8M. Maybe though. If he wants to stay he might have to.

Kovalenko's deal will expire by then too. So either he plays well and makes more than $1M or he doesn't play that well, and that line is a big question mark with a likely rookie Ritchie.

Same with Pavel, Tufte, and LOC. They'll be due a raises in 2025-26. If it's someone else with two league min salaries and $1.5M, that could be a gamble as well that the team won't want to make.

They may be able to get Behrens for $925k, but as a college player with more leverage, if he plays well he could command more. If he doesn't, that could be a questionable bottom pair with a league min D next to him.

 

[thedoctor]

It’s not hard to find a semi-competent #2C. These type of players move around every year. CMac just refuses to go and pay the price for one. Instead we go out of the way to pay top dollar for oft-injured aging #4-5D, and 3rd/4th liners.

great. tell me the 2RD/2C solution you had in mind, without the benefit of hindsight.

 

[sethro109]

That's why trading Girard over Manson is the right move. Avs have prospect in that pipeline to replace Girard but has nothing to replace Manson. Also we all know that GMs love overpaying for big physical defense like Manson in UFA so replacing him will not be cheap.

You want to give up on the 25 year old player to keep the aging one that can't stay healthy? Manson should absolutely be traded before Girard.

 

[Foppa2118]

great. tell me the 2RD/2C solution you had in mind, without the benefit of hindsight.

Put a horses head in Bettman's bed so he'll remove the salary cap?

 

[JH21]

You don't have to convince me. I've been taking shit left and right on these boards for months now saying that not only can they not afford Toews/Rantanen going forward (and expect anything resembling roster depth), but they should be actively looking to move them for a proper retool while their value is sky high.

Toews will be 30 and wants 7-8 over 8 years, hell no. Rantanen is not a center and is going to demand 11 million, no.

Move both. Priority #1 is to get a long term true 2C in one of those moves and retool around MacKinnon/2C on the front and Makar/Byram/Girard on the back end. They've already got half their wingers locked down. But that decision really needed to be made 5 months ago when Toews' value was higher and every team was in trade mode.



Sam Girard is 25 years old and without question a top four defenseman on a affordable long contract. It's so unfortunate that they're going to give that up so we can give a 30 year old 1D money (on a 35+ contract) when we already have a 1D making 1D money.

The front office is full of morons.

Holy hell. This post is arguably the dumbest post I have seen on here in quite a while.

Keep Girard and trade Toews? Trade Rantanen?

Toews is a top 5-7 Dman and that won't change when he is 35 years old. Rantanen is a 50 goal scorer. Who cares what position he plays. Would you rather have a 30 goal scorer at 2C for 12 million or a 50 goal scorer at RW for 12 million?

 

[VikingAv]

I've heard that Kadri would have re-signed for 6.5x7 or 6x8. Take that with a grain of salt though.

There are always options out there to solve 2C and middle pairing defensemen needs. It isn't this black and white of just Kadri or just Manson/Newhook. Kadri could have been re-signed. Could have made a sign and trade for Horvat. Could have gone for a rental like ROR. Could have gone risky with a 1 year signing like Domi/Strome. Could have sold Byram. They could have dumped EJ and signed Kadri along with still having Newhook and Manson. There is so much grey here that simply saying it had to be this or that is framing the debate unfairly.

To me, there were two paths that I would have investigated heavily. First would have been to put Byram on the market and tried to find a long-term 2C solution. A kid like Byram suddenly loosens a lot of names, and while I wouldn't have traded him for Dach (as I'm not a huge Dach at center fan)... that's a name that would have been a viable option. IMO there was (and still is) an option to move Bryam for a younger player in than 2C with legit 1C upside. That sort of move to solve the issue for 5-7 years would have been my first option.

I think the other realistic is simply choosing Kadri over Manson. Kadri was certainly going to regress and the contract would end poorly. Zero question about that. It would have certain window shutting moment at somepoint in the future. You also know he fit like a glove here and was still playing at a high level. If you got 3 years out of him at a 2C level, you secured 3 years of a potential to contend. Last year certainly would have been better... and I'd say that having Kadri over RyJo for the 2 seasons would be a lot more comforting. Certainly not without risk, but this would have been a known risk. The Avs were in the negotiations until Klingberg signed in Anaheim. They just were not willing to pay the price.

On Manson... I simply wouldn't have signed him or anybody for that role. Let the top 4 group of Makar, Toews, Byram, and G just figure it out with one of the lefties on their offside. Sign some cheap RD for depth. If/when it proved to be an issue, simply pay a 2nd for a RD rental. They are available every deadline and that cost is worth it to not get tied into a bad contract.

Didn't EJ himself say this summer, some time around him signing with Buffalo, that the Avs had a trade for him a couple of times in the summer of '21, but he enforced his NTC? I doubt he would be more willing to go last summer.

 

[UncleRisto]

Hench is clearly one of the CBJ scouts lol

Larsson wanted to draft Kopitar, but @henchman21 banged the table for Gilbert Brule.

 

[JH21]

Just playing around on capfriendly with the idea of trading Manson in 2024 to make room for Toews...

What quickly becomes apparent is how small the Avs blueline is without Manson, especially if you introduce Behrens and consider that JJ may not come back for another season.

Toews - Makar
Byram - Girard
Behrens - xxx

Gulyayev - Malinski
Hanzel - Clurman
Ahcan
Schueneman
Aamodt

Manson is regressing fast, but looking at that lineup above it seems pretty logical to move Girard (or Byram) instead.

The Avs are also well stocked with puck-moving LHD prospects too so at least stylistically Girard would be easier to replace too.


Don't you know that henchman is a die-hard CBJ fan (and CBJ drafted RyJo)?

Where is all this talk of Manson regressing? He was a key player for us in the Cup run and then was injured most of all last year.

 

[Gumballhead]

Where is all this talk of Manson regressing? He was a key player for us in the Cup run and then was injured most of all last year.

It is written. (here)

I think this season will tell us a lot about Manson and to be honest, Toews. The former needs to be healthy and the latter needs to be better than he was last year. I watched 95% of the games and Toews was not as sharp as the Cup year. There can be many reasons for that but if he plays like the Cup year, he’s worth the money he’d cost to keep, even with long term. Manson we can live with probably, or without.

 

[henchman21]

Where is all this talk of Manson regressing? He was a key player for us in the Cup run and then was injured most of all last year.

It is written. (here)

I think this season will tell us a lot about Manson and to be honest, Toews. The former needs to be healthy and the latter needs to be better than he was last year. I watched 95% of the games and Toews was not as sharp as the Cup year. There can be many reasons for that but if he plays like the Cup year, he’s worth the money he’d cost to keep, even with long term. Manson we can live with probably, or without.

That will be an interesting thing to watch. To my eyes, he didn't look as good last season. It certainly could be a one off, but it could also fit the normal curve. If that is the case, the Avs will need Byram to take a step or two forward.

 

[Richard88]

Kaliyev getting suspended could mean that Anderson-Dolan and/or Björnfot end up on waivers.