Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[MacKaRant]

Further to my post above here's an AGM for 2025 with a $92m cap where I've made the following signings to squeeze things in with a 21 man roster.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

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Rantanen $12m
Toews $7.5m
Byram $8m
Georgiev $5m
Colton at 2C and Ritchie on an ELC at 3C.

Contrary to what I said above it may actually be workable without losing a core player (eg. Byram or Rantanen), BUT the estimates above are optimistic imo and you're also counting on a prospect in a middle 6 center role on an ELC which is also optimistic to say the least.

Realistically you're probably going to have to move on from Girard to make things work, but that might be an acceptable loss if Behrens, Gulyayev, and or Hanzel can adequately replace him in a second pairing role on an ELC.

But what if Annunen grows so big in the intervening years that he covers the entire width of the net?

But, more seriously though, I fully expect the front office to target a second string goaltender itching for a chance at a starting position rather than resigning Grigoriev. From the past few years, I think we can conclude the front office believes the goaltender position is one where it's easy to gain some cap efficiency at the cost of a mid-round pick or two every couple years.

 

[5280]

Son of a bitch

 

[niwotsblessing]

Sammy G makes more than Manson, and is the #3 LHD behind Toews and Byron.

Buh bye!

 

[Richard88]

But what if Annunen grows so big in the intervening years that he covers the entire width of the net?

But, more seriously though, I fully expect the front office to target a second string goaltender itching for a chance at a starting position rather than resigning Grigoriev. From the past few years, I think we can conclude the front office believes the goaltender position is one where it's easy to gain some cap efficiency at the cost of a mid-round pick or two every couple years.

Yeah, they could very well end up doing that again just as they did with Grubauer ($3.33mx3) and Georgiev ($3.4m x3), as well as Kuemper who was effectively $3.5mx1. ~$3.5m seems to be a number the Avs are comfortable with for their starting goaltender.

That said, a $5m aav (and $1m on a backup) isn't far off that pattern when you take into account the rising cap.

The rising cap will probably increase the caphit a newly-acquired RFA goalie can ask for to closer to $4-5m, so whether it's Georgiev at $5m or someone else the difference won't be significant (though every little helps of course).

For example, Georgiev's $3.4m is currently 4.1% of the cap. In a couple years with a $92m cap ceiling that's equivalent to $3.77m AAV. So using that figure you're looking at a difference of $1.23m compared to the $5m ballpark estimate I used.

Also, the Avs have consistently paid more than league average for a backup goalie the last few years, and with them essentially soon being forced to go with a ~$1m backup they may need to pay a little extra on a starter to ensure they have the adequate quality in net overall with someone who can carry a bigger workload.

The $5m estimate I used, in addition to $1m for a backup, is $6m. That's essentially comparable to what they're spending now ($3.4m + $2m = $5.4m) when accounting for a rise in cap of about 10% ($82.5m to $92m).

Maybe they do manage to go cheap again, say $3.5m for a starter and $1m for a backup, total of $4.5m. That still only saves of $900k compared to what they're spending on goalies right now. Point being they can probably squeeze the money on goaltenders a little bit, enough where they MIGHT be able to keep their core intact, but realistically it's not going to be the area that makes or breaks their ability to keep a core player.

Sammy G makes more than Manson, and is the #3 LHD behind Toews and Byron.

Buh bye!

Behrens
Gulyayev
Hanzel
Ahcan

 

[Balthazar]

Sammy G makes more than Manson, and is the #3 LHD behind Toews and Byron.

Buh bye!

I once thought he'd be fairly easy to trade but I kinda changed my mind recently. Money is hard to move and so are small dmen. That's 2 strikes against CMac when he makes calls to trade him.

 

[Ararana]

The one thing I would say with Toews is if they decide to let him walk away, I really hope they go full commit on taking that direction with the team going forward. And by that I mean to do a proper 2-3 rebuild/retool to try and bring in some good young core pieces that can start to lead this team again in a couple of years along with Mack/Makar. And for me that would start with trading Mikko for a massive haul.

You don't have to convince me. I've been taking shit left and right on these boards for months now saying that not only can they not afford Toews/Rantanen going forward (and expect anything resembling roster depth), but they should be actively looking to move them for a proper retool while their value is sky high.

Toews will be 30 and wants 7-8 over 8 years, hell no. Rantanen is not a center and is going to demand 11 million, no.

Move both. Priority #1 is to get a long term true 2C in one of those moves and retool around MacKinnon/2C on the front and Makar/Byram/Girard on the back end. They've already got half their wingers locked down. But that decision really needed to be made 5 months ago when Toews' value was higher and every team was in trade mode.

I once thought he'd be fairly easy to trade but I kinda changed my mind recently. Money is hard to move and so are small dmen. That's 2 strikes against CMac when he makes calls to trade him.

Sam Girard is 25 years old and without question a top four defenseman on a affordable long contract. It's so unfortunate that they're going to give that up so we can give a 30 year old 1D money (on a 35+ contract) when we already have a 1D making 1D money.

The front office is full of morons.

 

[Balthazar]

Sam Girard is 25 years old and without question a top four defenseman on a affordable long contract. It's so unfortunate that they're going to give that up so we can give a 30 year 1D money (on a 35+ contract) when we already have a 1D making 1D money.

The front office is full of morons.

I don't necessarily disagree. A lot of people here believe that we'll soon be old and useless and waste half of Makar's prime on a non contending team. Chances are Avs may not think that way (letting Kadri walk leads us to believe that they do care about 4-5 years from now).

Also the Landy injury could very well become a get out of jail free card.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I'd still take a flyer on Foote. Our RHD depth is crap. I don't trust Manson's health, Malinski's skill or Hunt's advanced age. He young, big and can skate fast. I know he has a lot of holes in his game, but I'm more than fine with him developing with the Eagles this season.

Of course that's assuming he'd take a AHL contract. He's been cut twice now, so I'm assuming he'd be open to it.

If he was actually good then it’d be worth it. But he’s not good… he’s not an upgrade on anyone we have and doesn’t have the upside worth it to add the cap and contract crunch that would ensue.

 

[henchman21]

You can make a lot of things work with the cap if you're willing to make sacrifices. IE the Avs CAN afford to keep all the bigger name... but are they willing to pay the price to dump contracts and are they willing to deal with the lack of depth? Can the prospects actually develop in a timely manner to provide depth? Can this be done before the core is too old to have a chance? These are all major challenges where threading the needle becomes really difficult at best. Landy's health and ability upon return are pretty key. If he comes back and plays at a high level, that's great, but maybe not the most ideal. Most ideal is a free 7m in cap. If he returns and is just a middle 6 guy... that's a pretty major issue.

I personally think RyJo has the capability to be a great 2C here. His talent level when he cares has always been very high end. He's also shown it semi recently. Again though, I think it is threading the needle. IMO the Avs need a lot of risky bets to fall into place to really be at the top end of contending. I think the ultimate upside is there with the guys they brought in... but a 25% chance here, 10% chance there, 50% chance there, etc... makes threading the needle a very difficult thing to do. There are a lot of risky bets on the team currently. I personally wouldn't put the Avs chances at more than 5% to win the Cup this year... and less next season barring a huge breakout by Ritchie.

IMO, RyJo is completely the key to the season. If he plays like a high end 2C or even 1C level, Avs are clearly going to be a top 5 team. If he plays like an enigmatic and bad 2C/3C (which has been 3 of his last 4 seasons), I don't think the Avs get out of the 2nd round... maybe the 1st. Where he falls on this scale is critically important, and given his history... we have basically zero idea where he falls. It wouldn't be shocking to have any result. If it is the latter, the window might very well shut. If it is the former (and holds for another season), I think you have two clear seasons.

 

[Avs_19]

Not liking the latest from Elliotte. All speculation of course but it doesn't sound too promising. Hopefully they can find some middle ground and get it done.

 

[RockLobster]

Not liking the latest from Elliotte. All speculation of course but it doesn't sound too promising. Hopefully they can find some middle ground and get it done.

What is this now?

 

[henchman21]

What is this now?

It’s in his thoughts. Basically term.

 

[Ararana]

IMO, RyJo is completely the key to the season. If he plays like a high end 2C or even 1C level, Avs are clearly going to be a top 5 team. If he plays like an enigmatic and bad 2C/3C (which has been 3 of his last 4 seasons), I don't think the Avs get out of the 2nd round... maybe the 1st. Where he falls on this scale is critically important, and given his history... we have basically zero idea where he falls. It wouldn't be shocking to have any result. If it is the latter, the window might very well shut. If it is the former (and holds for another season), I think you have two clear seasons.

I actually think RyJo is going to start the season looking great. But as the season stretches on and into the postseason that 31 year old body is going to catch up with him.

The Avs won the cup because their forward lines attacked in relentless waves of high energy and speed. I seriously doubt RyJo can keep up with that in April and May, let alone June.

 

[RockLobster]

It’s in his thoughts. Basically term.

Is there a "latest" from Elliotte? I thought we already knew that term was reported issue?

 

[henchman21]

I actually think RyJo is going to start the season looking great. But as the season stretches on and into the postseason that 31 year old body is going to catch up with him.

The Avs won the cup because their forward lines attacked in relentless waves of high energy and speed. I seriously doubt RyJo can keep up with that in April and May, let alone June.

I'd say that is certainly a likely outcome. I acknowledge I have a bias towards RyJo and that likely impacts how I look at him as a player. To me a more likely outcome is that RyJo looks good to start for 5-10 games, then gets lazy and enigmatic for 50+, then the give a shit meter ramps and he plays as good as he can the lats 10+ of the regular season and playoffs. Now ultimately, his age is a factor... how good is he at 31 now? Can he have a flash season like a couple years ago or like when he was 25/26 or is that tank just not there?

I think your second point is a bit of an overlooked factor over the past couple seasons. The Cup season and one prior, Avs were simply a much faster and more workmanlike team. Last season's team arguably wasn't a top 5 team in either area. The Avs have slowed down quite a bit (you don't have to look further than the Seattle series) and they went further down the idea of adding size and getting away from the speed game. You can win either way in the NHL (though typically have to elements of both), but the Avs won't be the same style of team as the Cup team was.

 

[Balthazar]

I have a bias towards RyJo and that likely impacts how I look at him as a player.

Where is that from BTW?

 

[Richard88]

Just playing around on capfriendly with the idea of trading Manson in 2024 to make room for Toews...

What quickly becomes apparent is how small the Avs blueline is without Manson, especially if you introduce Behrens and consider that JJ may not come back for another season.

Toews - Makar
Byram - Girard
Behrens - xxx

Gulyayev - Malinski
Hanzel - Clurman
Ahcan
Schueneman
Aamodt

Manson is regressing fast, but looking at that lineup above it seems pretty logical to move Girard (or Byram) instead.

The Avs are also well stocked with puck-moving LHD prospects too so at least stylistically Girard would be easier to replace too.

Where is that from BTW?

Don't you know that henchman is a die-hard CBJ fan (and CBJ drafted RyJo)?

 

[henchman21]

Where is that from BTW?

I've been a huge fan of his game going back to juniors. When he was on, he could be an utterly dominant player on both ends of the ice. The physical skill set and IQ was there for a 35g 60a sort of guy with great defense even in the lower scoring NHL. Guys of his size don't normally skate like he could, have his hands/shot/vision combo, and when he cared, he could play with some real sandpaper. Sadly, what has kept him from a HoF career is that he simply doesn't give a shit 50+% of the time. He's the poster boy of you can't teach effort. I would have loved to see a prime RyJo play under Bednar, Rod the Bod, or Cooper. I firmly believe that one of those guys could have unlocked his true ability.

 

[nammerus]

You can make a lot of things work with the cap if you're willing to make sacrifices. IE the Avs CAN afford to keep all the bigger name... but are they willing to pay the price to dump contracts and are they willing to deal with the lack of depth? Can the prospects actually develop in a timely manner to provide depth? Can this be done before the core is too old to have a chance? These are all major challenges where threading the needle becomes really difficult at best. Landy's health and ability upon return are pretty key. If he comes back and plays at a high level, that's great, but maybe not the most ideal. Most ideal is a free 7m in cap. If he returns and is just a middle 6 guy... that's a pretty major issue.

I personally think RyJo has the capability to be a great 2C here. His talent level when he cares has always been very high end. He's also shown it semi recently. Again though, I think it is threading the needle. IMO the Avs need a lot of risky bets to fall into place to really be at the top end of contending. I think the ultimate upside is there with the guys they brought in... but a 25% chance here, 10% chance there, 50% chance there, etc... makes threading the needle a very difficult thing to do. There are a lot of risky bets on the team currently. I personally wouldn't put the Avs chances at more than 5% to win the Cup this year... and less next season barring a huge breakout by Ritchie.

IMO, RyJo is completely the key to the season. If he plays like a high end 2C or even 1C level, Avs are clearly going to be a top 5 team. If he plays like an enigmatic and bad 2C/3C (which has been 3 of his last 4 seasons), I don't think the Avs get out of the 2nd round... maybe the 1st. Where he falls on this scale is critically important, and given his history... we have basically zero idea where he falls. It wouldn't be shocking to have any result. If it is the latter, the window might very well shut. If it is the former (and holds for another season), I think you have two clear seasons.

Thank god we tied our cup aspirations to a player with serious motivational issues, and who had problems breaking 40-45 points 3 of the last 4 years.

 

[Richard88]

Thank god we tied our cup aspirations to a player with serious motivational issues, and who had problems breaking 40-45 points 3 of the last 4 years.

Thank god we tied our cup aspirations to a player with serious disciplinary issues, who got suspended 3 of the last 4 playoff years.

 

[henchman21]

Thank god we tied our cup aspirations to a player with serious motivational issues, and who had problems breaking 40-45 points 3 of the last 4 years.

When teams lose their team friendly contracts, they either have to start taking risks like RyJo or paying for that excess value (or a combo of those). It is the natural cycle in the cap world.

 

[Ararana]

Don't you know that henchman is a die-hard CBJ fan (and CBJ drafted RyJo)?

Hench is clearly one of the CBJ scouts lol

 

[Richard88]

When teams lose their team friendly contracts, they either have to start taking risks like RyJo or paying for that excess value (or a combo of those). It is the natural cycle in the cap world.

What do you think it would cost to move Manson next off-season?

32 years old, 2 more years at $4.5m aav.

Notably his salary is front-loaded and drops to $4m in 2024/25 and to $3.5m in 2025/26 (including a signing bonus of $1m due in July 2025).

If he's healthy gotta think there's at least one GM who can sell themselves on the idea of adding a big physical cup-winning veteran RHD with a lower salary than caphit for 2 years. Especially if they can get an asset for free as well.

 

[thedoctor]

When teams lose their team friendly contracts, they either have to start taking risks like RyJo or paying for that excess value (or a combo of those). It is the natural cycle in the cap world.

exactly.

there was no path to a 2C that didn't carry at least similar risk. I feel similarly to how I did about the Manson re-signing or going with Newhook at 2C -- yeah, I don't love the risk profile, but compared to the other options at the time, I can't say I'd go with a different choice. So much of this yammering about these 3 front office calls ignores the context of other options -- the cap situation and the lack of draft success really f***ed us.

and by the way, I think we all understand RyJo has risks at this point, we need no more reminders, RyJo hater crew.

 

[henchman21]

What do you think it would cost to move Manson next off-season?

32 years old, 2 more years at $4.5m aav.

Notably his salary is front-loaded and drops to $4m in 2024/25 and to $3.5m in 2025/26 (including a signing bonus of $1m due in July 2025).

If he's healthy gotta think there's at least one GM who can sell themselves on the idea of adding a big physical cup-winning veteran RHD with a lower salary than caphit for 2 years. Especially if they can get an asset for free as well.

Probably a 1st or 2nd. This offseason was weird, but I can't imagine anybody lining up for Manson if he continues his trajectory.

exactly.

there was no path to a 2C that didn't carry at least similar risk. I feel similarly to how I did about the Manson re-signing or going with Newhook at 2C -- yeah, I don't love the risk profile, but compared to the other options at the time, I can't say I'd go with a different choice. So much of this yammering about these 3 front office calls ignores the context of other options -- the cap situation and the lack of draft success really f***ed us.

and by the way, I think we all understand RyJo has risks at this point, we need no more reminders, RyJo hater crew.

I like this bet a lot better than the Manson/Newhook. Manson should have never been re-signed. That was a critical error and cost the Avs the chance to really solve the 2C issue... and they did that because of Newhook. Who they thought would grow into the role. Which was a huge scouting miss that should have been seen from a mile away. I was screaming it before he was even drafted that he wasn't that guy and it was only more clear as the years went on (despite people using random highlights to say otherwise).