Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[lionsDen]

I'd still take a flyer on Foote. Our RHD depth is crap. I don't trust Manson's health, Malinski's skill or Hunt's advanced age. He young, big and can skate fast. I know he has a lot of holes in his game, but I'm more than fine with him developing with the Eagles this season.

Of course that's assuming he'd take a AHL contract. He's been cut twice now, so I'm assuming he'd be open to it.

every fan base he’s been apart of him has pretty much consider him a hockey dunce. That’s sad cause his dad is one of my all time favs. He’ll probably be worse off then big z was with bed bednar

 

[Ararana]

Maybe cMac has a brain after all.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Maybe cMac has a brain after all.

I mean... you're simply closing the window if you let Toews walk away. We don't have anyone that can even remotely replace what he brings to the table.

Not unless Byram takes an insanely huge step forward this year.

 

[Muffin]

We should claim him and give him a shot in our last preseason game. I don't think anyone else would claim him if we wait until final cuts to send him down. His contact is only 800K.

NJ would just claim him back and send him to the minors. The only way the Avs could claim him is to play him in the NHL.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

I mean... you're simply closing the window if you let Toews walk away. We don't have anyone that can even remotely replace what he brings to the table.

Not unless Byram takes an insanely huge step forward this year.

I'm gonna go out on a limb, and say they trade Manson after this year to afford to keep Toews.

 

[Ararana]

I mean... you're simply closing the window if you let Toews walk away. We don't have anyone that can even remotely replace what he brings to the table.

Not unless Byram takes an insanely huge step forward this year.

That’s assuming they can win with RyJo at 2C, which I don’t think they can.

 

[sethro109]

NJ would just claim him back and send him to the minors. The only way the Avs could claim him is to play him in the NHL.

That's only if NJ still wants him. I suspect that they do not.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

That’s assuming they can win with RyJo at 2C, which I don’t think they can.

That's fair. So basically you think the window is probably already closed?

If that's your opinion then yeah moving on from Toews would absolutely be the right move.

 

[Foppa2118]

You’re not really going to find « reasoning » from Dom on why Dallas or other teams are ahead.
His ranking is purely statistically based. It’s a simple value attributed to a team based on the offensive and defensive value of each individual player relative to their ice time.

Wood, RyJo and Drouin have not been good « statistically » on their previous teams. Had they all been good, the Avs would be much higher ranked.

It’s really that simple. It’s a calculation that if things stay static, this is where they project.

I agree his opinions seem entirely based on stats from previous years. But that shows how worthless these rudimentary metrics can be, because teams are always different, and things are rarely static.

It's fun for fans to see these rankings. I get it. But I think it's incorrect for anyone to say Dom made a good accurate analysis.

it would be one thing if writers like Dom let the stats speak for themsevles. But he also editorializes and tries to support his rankings with reasoning. Which is why that was a fairly long article.

After reading his article on Dallas, it's pretty clear he over emphasized the Avs weaknesses, while downplaying the Stars. This kind of thing shows his analysis isn't really worth much other than a casual read.

Spoiler: Examples:

Despite being a lengthy article, the only mention of the Avs health last year was that Manson and Byram being healthy would help the team. As if they were the only ones missing last year.

You can also see poor and inconsistent characterizations in his tweet summaries of his rankings. As Ceremony noted in another thread, he sounds more critical of the Avs than Vegas, even though he ranks the Avs higher. And Dallas somehow took huge leaps by adding Duchene.

Vegas ranked 7th in points and 8th to win the Cup - "Vegas is ready to run it back, entering the season with a relatively strong shot at a repeat."

Avs ranked 6th in points and 7th to win the Cup - "MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen, Toews still give Colorado a scary elite core — but the depth renovations weren't enough to put the Avalanche in the top five."

Dallas ranked 4th in points 2nd to win Cup (despite just as many question marks as the Avs) - "Dark horse no more — the Stars are a bonafide contender now, fuelled by an exciting core that rivals the league's best."

In his article, there's no mention or concern over the Stars 2nd and 3rd leading scorers last year being 39 and 34 years old. No mention of the Stars being one of the healthiest teams last year and still losing the division to the Avs. He acts like the regression of Seguin is no big deal, and that he looked closer to himself last year when he scored one more point than the previous season, and ranks the Stars to win the division and 2nd to win the Cup, despite really only adding a 33 year old Duchene who scored 56 points last season.

Meanwhile the Avs are ranked 7th overall in the regular season and 6th to win the Cup. And his reasoning that JJ or any 6D is the difference between the Avs ranking 6th and 3rd, is quite frankly absurd.

Stars Weaknesses

"Ask any Stars fan who the biggest problem is and they’ll immediately point to Ryan Suter — and the model doesn’t disagree. He isn’t well suited for a top-four role anymore and the same is true for everyone behind Heiskanen......"

"Beyond that, it’s mostly quibbles here and there. And even with those nitpicks it’s not hard to see the player’s value to the Stars. (me: outside of Suter the remaining weaknesses are quibbles and nitpicks?)

"Radek Faksa is a perfect example of that. By Net Rating he doesn’t grade out well at all, even for a fourth-line center, and it’s because offensively he brings next to nothing to the table...."

"But with all the other offensive weapons on the team, that’s an okay concession to make for Faksa’s defense."

"Further up the lineup is Tyler Seguin, once a core piece for the team who now looks a bit out of place in a lead role. Last year he was fourth on the team’s forward depth chart and though he looked closer to his pre-surgery self, the risk that the 31-year-old forward will decline is still there."

"Even if he does though, he’s fairly well insulated by Dallas’ strength in the middle six behind him." (so Seguin is insulated with Benn, Pavelski, Hintz, and Robertson, but RyJo and Drouin aren't with MacKinnon, Rantanen, Nuke, Lehkonen, and Tatar?)

Avs Weaknesses

"After finishing top five in goals for three straight seasons, the Avalanche dropped to 10th, and it was entirely due to what happens whenever MacKinnon left the ice. (entirely? nothing to do with injuries?) Last season, Colorado scored 5.43 goals per 60 with MacKinnon on the ice, similar to last season’s 5.49. The difference? Scoring 3.07 goals per 60 without him compared to 2.27 last season.

"That’s not good enough and it doesn’t quite feel like what Colorado did this offseason to address the problem is either." (again no mention of injuries)

"Aside from that, Colorado’s only other problem is the team’s inexplicable love affair with Jack Johnson who unsurprisingly enters the season with the lowest projected Net Rating in the league. The difference between Johnson and an average No. 6 defender is the same as the difference between the Avalanche ranking sixth or third in the league in Net Rating."

 

[Richard88]

Interesting that Friedman mentions $56-64m specifically. Even though he's probably just speculating he probably wouldn't throw dollar figures like that out in s written article without having some sort of suggestions from people he's spoken to about it.

That's basically in the region of $8m x 7 (or $7mx8) and $8m X 8, either of which would be workable for the Avs as they'd only need to move Manson to make the cap work in either of those scenarios. Above $8m aav is where it gets trickier.

Fwiw Manson's NTC becomes a partial NTC in 2024, and his contract is also front loaded the first two years to make it easier to move him in 2024 and even moreso in 2025.

 

[Ararana]

That's fair. So basically you think the window is probably already closed?

If that's your opinion then yeah moving on from Toews would absolutely be the right move.

Barring a miracle run led by super hero shit from 29/8/96, yeah I think they’re done.

Not properly replacing Kadri was the death stroke IMO. This management group never did truly value the 2C position. Thats why I was so aggressive on trading Toews for a real 2C and pray Byram can hang. Trading Byram/Girard wasn’t going to do it.

Now they’ve painted themselves into a corner. I’d get as much as I could for a soon to be 30 year old UFA. But they won’t, they’ll end up giving him a 7x8 and we’ll watch the surrounding players exit over the next few years. At least they won one cup.

 

[Avsboy]

Toews won’t settle for 5 years

 

[Foppa2118]

I'm gonna go out on a limb, and say they trade Manson after this year to afford to keep Toews.

I think the plan might have always been to trade him anyway. My guess was always back to Anaheim, though Gudas might have changed that, hard to tell.

They need to shed some salary if they want to keep Mikko and Byram/Toews. I just hope they don't have to lose Bo. That would be a giant mistake IMO. He's key to any Cup chances they may have in the coming years.

 

[Richard88]

Toews won’t settle for 5 years

It'll probably end up being like the Nichushkin situation where he gets an offer from another team and the Avs match the total dollar number but spread it out over 8 years.

In Nichushkin's case he had an offer from am east coast team (according to henchman) of $49m ($7m x7) and the Avs matched that over 8 years ($6.125m x 8).

Based on those numbers Friedman mentioned I'd guess that Toews will probably have offers around $9mx7 ($63m) on the open market, so the Avs could match that total by doing $7.875m X 8.

 

[Foppa2118]

Toews won’t settle for 5 years

Honestly he probably shouldn't, unless it's like $9Mx5, which the Avs won't do. He'd probably leave a fair bit of money on the table on a 5 year.

He'll be 35/36 in the first year of the next deal after a 5 year. Unlikely a team would give him close to $8M at that point.

He could be leaving like $3-4M on the table (maybe even more) signing an $8M x 5 instead of $8M x 7 which it seems like he could easily get on the open market. He might even have some $9M x 7 offers.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Alright, I will say it.

I love Toews, but include me in the camp of people that think whoever pays him to be their 1D will regret it.

Great 2D or 1b whatever you want to call him, but we win because Cale Makar is far and away the best defenseman on the planet. Everybody else looks good in their respective roles a notch under Makar.

 

[Foppa2118]

It'll probably end up being like the Nichushkin situation where he gets an offer from another team and the Avs match the total dollar number but spread it out over 8 years.

In Nichushkin's case he had an offer from am east coast team (according to henchman) of $49m ($7m x7) and the Avs matched that over 8 years ($6.125m x 8).

Based on those numbers Friedman mentioned I'd guess that Toews will probably have offers around $9mx7 ($63m) on the open market, so the Avs could match that total by doing $7.875m X 8.

Yes, but that 8 year deal would just match what he would get on the 7 year deal. So he'd be leaving money on the table for that 8th year.

Val's situation (if that's what happened) was a little different. He'll be 35/36 in the first year after his 8 year. So he could perhaps sign another NHL deal to get more money, but also may just want to return to Russia and play for decent money there which isn't uncommon.

Toews though would be 38/39 in the first year after an 8 year deal. Hard to bank on still being able to play in the NHL at that age, so this could be his last deal, and he might not be able to earn more.

 

[Linds]

16-0-66 would probably do the trick.

Would still draft 4th overall

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Barring a miracle run led by super hero shit from 29/8/96, yeah I think they’re done.

Not properly replacing Kadri was the death stroke IMO. This management group never did truly value the 2C position. Thats why I was so aggressive on trading Toews for a real 2C and pray Byram can hang. Trading Byram/Girard wasn’t going to do it.

Now they’ve painted themselves into a corner. I’d get as much as I could for a soon to be 30 year old UFA. But they won’t, they’ll end up giving him a 7x8 and we’ll watch the surrounding players exit over the next few years. At least they won one cup.

Ya fair enough... I'm not quite ready to say they're done yet. I want to see what RyJo can bring to the table. But I definitely think its a legit possibility that this group is done.

I think we're both on the same page where it really doesn't matter one bit what the likes of Drouin/Colton/Wood/Tatar/etc. all do, if the RyJo experiment fails, this group will fail and the window is probably closed.


The one thing I would say with Toews is if they decide to let him walk away, I really hope they go full commit on taking that direction with the team going forward. And by that I mean to do a proper 2-3 rebuild/retool to try and bring in some good young core pieces that can start to lead this team again in a couple of years along with Mack/Makar. And for me that would start with trading Mikko for a massive haul.

Alright, I will say it.

I love Toews, but include me in the camp of people that think whoever pays him to be their 1D will regret it.

Great 2D or 1b whatever you want to call him, but we win because Cale Makar is far and away the best defenseman on the planet. Everybody else looks good in their respective roles a notch under Makar.

I do agree that any team paying him to be a 1D, especially at 30 years old, will almost instantly regret it...

That being said, if you can sign him for under $8M... I dont really think you're actually paying him 1D money either. That's more along the lines of 2D money and especially as the cap starts going up its even going to be 2nd pairing money in ~3-4 years.

But if he's looking for $9M from the Avs... Ya I dont think you can sign him to that.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Let's just say we sign DT for 8M. How the hell do we keep Mikko and replace RyJo?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Let's just say we sign DT for 8M. How the hell do we keep Mikko and replace RyJo?

Honestly. Not that difficult to do. Cap jumps up ~4M next year to $87.5M which essentially covers all of Toews raise. Then the following year it jumps ~$5M to $92.5M. That $5M would cover a Mikko raise to $12.5M and then $1.75M leftover that you could in theory spend on a ~$5M 2C.


But there's a few significant uncertainties that would factor into all of this pretty heavily. The first being Landeskogs health and the 2nd being Bowmen Byrams status with the team.

Because basically if Landy is healthy, we're probably screwed and will have to lose wither Toews or Mikko and tbh this part might very well be why the Avs haven't signed Toews already.

And with Byram... If he takes a significant step forward as a player in the next 2 years, then he's due for a new contract and likely $5-6m raise that same summer Mikko gets a new deal.

 

[Chiarelli]

Toews is the 4th best/most important player on this team. Find a way to make it work or the window closes once he’s gone. Our core is too good to suck and get us a high pick and our drafting is too shitty to pull a gem out of a mid 1st round pick.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Barring a miracle run led by super hero shit from 29/8/96, yeah I think they’re done.

Not properly replacing Kadri was the death stroke IMO. This management group never did truly value the 2C position. Thats why I was so aggressive on trading Toews for a real 2C and pray Byram can hang. Trading Byram/Girard wasn’t going to do it.

Now they’ve painted themselves into a corner. I’d get as much as I could for a soon to be 30 year old UFA. But they won’t, they’ll end up giving him a 7x8 and we’ll watch the surrounding players exit over the next few years. At least they won one cup.

Yah im pretty much this. Hey atleast they got 1.

 

[Richard88]

Honestly. Not that difficult to do. Cap jumps up ~4M next year to $87.5M which essentially covers all of Toews raise. Then the following year it jumps ~$5M to $92.5M. That $5M would cover a Mikko raise to $12.5M and then $1.75M leftover that you could in theory spend on a ~$5M 2C.


But there's a few significant uncertainties that would factor into all of this pretty heavily. The first being Landeskogs health and the 2nd being Bowmen Byrams status with the team.

Because basically if Landy is healthy, we're probably screwed and will have to lose wither Toews or Mikko and tbh this part might very well be why the Avs haven't signed Toews already.

And with Byram... If he takes a significant step forward as a player in the next 2 years, then he's due for a new contract and likely $5-6m raise that same summer Mikko gets a new deal.

Covering Rantanen's raise is easy when one completely overlooks the fact that RyJo and Georgiev's $4m and $3.5m contacts end then too, meaning you'll need to find a replacement 2C and starting goalie for equivalent money in addition to re-upping Byram, which won't be easy to do with a rising cap where players will demand a higher $ amount for the same job (in keep in line with salaries as a %'s of the cap).

Having Calum Ritchie fill the 2C role on an ELC would massively help, but pencilling a prospect in at 2C on an ELC would be rather over-optimistic given how this team has continually failed to do exactly that with a long list of center prospects im the recent past (Newhook, Jost, Bowers, Hishon, etc).

The way I see it this team effectively has a two year window until 2025 as things stand, which is when the crunch will force them to lose a core player for the first time (eg. Byram or Rantanen). Until then it's possible to get by simply by dumping Manson for example, which itself is a loss, but it'll get exponentially more painful in 2025.

I say re-sign Toews now to give the team the best shot at another cup between 2023 and 2025, and deal with the fallout later. Every asset not currently on the roster should be on the table at the next couple of TDL's and next off-season to really load up and go for it.

 

[Richard88]

Further to my post above here's an AGM for 2025 with a $92m cap where I've made the following signings to squeeze things in with a 21 man roster.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Rantanen $12m
Toews $7.5m
Byram $8m
Georgiev $5m
Colton at 2C and Ritchie on an ELC at 3C.

Contrary to what I said above it may actually be workable without losing a core player (eg. Byram or Rantanen), BUT the estimates above are optimistic imo and you're also counting on a prospect in a middle 6 center role on an ELC which is also optimistic to say the least.

Realistically you're probably going to have to move on from Girard to make things work, but that might be an acceptable loss if Behrens, Gulyayev, and or Hanzel can adequately replace him in a second pairing role on an ELC.