Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[Balthazar]

I guess I need to learn to speak in absolutes and ignore that we've seen playoff teams sell before.

Context.

Imagine a team that didn't make the playoffs in 13 years and then sell at the deadline for more picks while they were in a position to make the playoffs.

 

[Bender]

It doesn't matter what the Athletic thinks our chances are this year.

What does JFresh think ?

 

[Foppa2118]

Context.

Imagine a team that didn't make the playoffs in 13 years and then sell at the deadline for more picks while they were in a position to make the playoffs.

Balth I agreed with you and dahrougem. Not sure why we're fixating on my use of the word "probably" but it's all good. I still agree with your point.

 

[Hasbro]

To follow up on this with a potential EJ trade at the deadline.

JJ made $950k last year.

...and $916K from the Penguins buyout.

 

[Foppa2118]

The Athletic preview is actually really well done and bang on. It's really no different than what we've said repeatedly for months now leading up to the season. Not many teams, if any, have better top end talent than the Avs but the depth is a question mark. You can be the most optimistic person in the world but you can't guarantee success for guys like Johansen, Colton, Wood, Drouin, etc based on what we've seen from them recently. They've got to prove themselves in their roles.

A key part of the preview:

I'm willing to give credit to skepticism of the Avs, but before I do, I'd like to see similar articles on the teams Dom has ranked ahead of the Avs.

I need to see his reasoning for why Dallas is supposed to win the Central and more likely to win the Cup than the Avs, and why them being one of the healthiest teams last year and losing the division to a decimated Colorado, while a soon to be 33 year old Matt Duchene who had 56 points last season was the biggest addition to a roster that had a 34 year old Benn, a 39 year old Pavelski, and a soon to be 32 year old Seguin as their 2nd, 3rd, and 6th leading scorers last year, isn't as concerning as what the Avs did with a top 5 forward and the best defenseman in the world in their prime, to upgrade their roster from the one that had among the most injuries and did win the division last year.

That doesn't make much sense to me and sounds like he might have based it entirely on analytics instead of a well reasoned thought process that includes analytics and other factors like who won the division last year, whether it's more or less likely that Dallas/Colorado will be healthier/less healthy than last year, the ages of their leading scorers, who has better top players in their prime, and who may be extra motivated to prove themselves this year more than others, like Nuke, Toews, RyJo, Drouin, Wood, Tatar, Byram, and even Kovalenko and Tufte to an extent, though their potential impact is less clear.

Also, in March last season, Dom had the Avs way too low at 18% to win the division, and Dallas at 70%, when they were 7 points back with 3 games in hand, including one against Dallas (which the Avs won).

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[EdAVSfan]

I'm willing to give credit to skepticism of the Avs, but before I do, I'd like to see similar articles on the teams Dom has ranked ahead of the Avs.

I need to see his reasoning for why Dallas is supposed to win the Central and more likely to win the Cup than the Avs, and why them being one of the healthiest teams last year and losing the division to a decimated Colorado, while a soon to be 33 year old Matt Duchene who had 56 points last season was the biggest addition to a roster that had a 34 year old Benn, a 39 year old Pavelski, and a soon to be 32 year old Seguin as their 2nd, 3rd, and 6th leading scorers last year, isn't as concerning as what the Avs did with a top 5 forward and the best defenseman in the world in their prime, to upgrade their roster from the one that had among the most injuries and did win the division last year.

That doesn't make much sense to me and sounds like he might have based it entirely on analytics instead of a well reasoned thought process that includes analytics and other factors like who won the division last year, whether it's more or less likely that Dallas/Colorado will be healthier/less healthy than last year, the ages of their leading scorers, who has better top players in their prime, and who may be extra motivated to prove themselves this year more than others, like Nuke, Toews, RyJo, Drouin, Wood, Tatar, Byram, and even Kovalenko and Tufte to an extent, though their potential impact is less clear.

Also, in March last season, Dom had the Avs way too low at 18% to win the division, and Dallas at 70%, when they were 7 points back with 3 games in hand, including one against Dallas (which the Avs won).

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You’re not really going to find « reasoning » from Dom on why Dallas or other teams are ahead.
His ranking is purely statistically based. It’s a simple value attributed to a team based on the offensive and defensive value of each individual player relative to their ice time.

Wood, RyJo and Drouin have not been good « statistically » on their previous teams. Had they all been good, the Avs would be much higher ranked.

It’s really that simple. It’s a calculation that if things stay static, this is where they project.

 

[missionAvs]

You’re not really going to find « reasoning » from Dom on why Dallas or other teams are ahead.
His ranking is purely statistically based. It’s a simple value attributed to a team based on the offensive and defensive value of each individual player relative to their ice time.

Wood, RyJo and Drouin have not been good « statistically » on their previous teams. Had they all been good, the Avs would be much higher ranked.

It’s really that simple. It’s a calculation that if things stay static, this is where they project.

So what you're saying is that statistically... we suck. Right?

 

[EdAVSfan]

So what you're saying is that statistically... we suck. Right?

Statistically, if all players from all the teams perform exactly as they did last year, then were the 7th best team.

Unless Landeskog comes back, then were 2nd

 

[the_fan]

Avs are back on top as the cup favorites on pretty much all the sports books. Did Tatar put them over the top? Because before getting Tatar Avs weren’t tops, they were still top 5 but not the favorites

 

[SirLoinOfCloth]

Fire CMac

 

[henchman21]

If we go back a few years, we’d see people trumpet how awesome the stats community is and their prognostications are the best. Today, they are just calculations and don’t mean anything. The difference… where the Avs are projected.

 

[Alienblood]

Avs are back on top as the cup favorites on pretty much all the sports books. Did Tatar put them over the top? Because before getting Tatar Avs weren’t tops, they were still top 5 but not the favorites

they were the favorites before that on every one that I saw and still are besides.the Atheletic now

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

If we go back a few years, we’d see people trumpet how awesome the stats community is and their prognostications are the best. Today, they are just calculations and don’t mean anything. The difference… where the Avs are projected.

There's been a trend that players perform well with the avalanche. Bednar is a good coach or they find players who fit the system well.

 

[UncleRisto]

If we go back a few years, we’d see people trumpet how awesome the stats community is and their prognostications are the best. Today, they are just calculations and don’t mean anything. The difference… where the Avs are projected.

That's not true. I don't pay attention to anything, no matter what. I just decide things.

 

[henchman21]

There's been a trend that players perform well with the avalanche. Bednar is a good coach or they find players who fit the system well.

Yeah the Avs have had some hits for sure. They also mostly targeted different sorts than the guys today. You could make a pretty strong argument that the Avs additions this year were not analytically as based as previous and more pure reclamation.

More or less… I don’t really care where the Avs are ranked. I do find the hypocrisy of believing in the numbers when they suit you and throwing them away when they don’t a funny human psychology thing.

 

[ABasin]

If we go back a few years, we’d see people trumpet how awesome the stats community is and their prognostications are the best. Today, they are just calculations and don’t mean anything. The difference… where the Avs are projected.

*ahem*

Not all people, my friend...

Yeah the Avs have had some hits for sure. They also mostly targeted different sorts than the guys today. You could make a pretty strong argument that the Avs additions this year were not analytically as based as previous and more pure reclamation.

More or less… I don’t really care where the Avs are ranked. I do find the hypocrisy of believing in the numbers when they suit you and throwing them away when they don’t a funny human psychology thing.

I have no problem at all with 7th overall. One of the top 2 teams in one of the 4 divisions (without their captain) is a perfectly fine ranking.

There's just too much uncertainty in their top 6 forwards to rank them any higher.

 

[Toothless Legend]

Is it opening night yet?

Who cares.

 

[henchman21]

*ahem*

Not all people, my friend...


I have no problem at all with 7th overall. One of the top 2 teams in one of the 4 divisions (without their captain) is a perfectly fine ranking.

There's just too much uncertainty in their top 6 forwards to rank them any higher.

Of course not all people. I just remember people using Dom and JFresh's models as the word of god at times... and now that they are not as favorable, they are just numbers.

As I stated earlier, I think 7th is fair. You could squabble a bit, but it isn't like it is so far off it is laughable. To pretend there are not questions on this team is flat out ignoring some pretty glaring ones. To pretend that the Avs suck is also far from the reality. The Avs went risk/reward in the summer and how that scale plays out will ultimately determine the success of the season.

 

[Avs9296]

If we go back a few years, we’d see people trumpet how awesome the stats community is and their prognostications are the best. Today, they are just calculations and don’t mean anything. The difference… where the Avs are projected.

Kinda like the Avs window is shut goal post moving that was done in 2022 by some around here.

 

[Toothless Legend]

Of course not all people. I just remember people using Dom and JFresh's models as the word of god at times... and now that they are not as favorable, they are just numbers.

There’s definitely some confirmation bias at play, but I also think their models have lost some luster more broadly now that we’re a few years in, the initial shine wore off, and unreasonable expectations weren’t met. When they rolled out, the IHC was wowed by the fancy math underlying the models and the slick, digestible graphics, and most didn’t spend the bandwidth to fully understand what they were reading.

 

[henchman21]

Kinda like the Avs window is shut goal post moving that was done in 2022 by some around here.

There is a chance the window has shut and we don't know it yet. You never really know midstream when things shutdown. As was debated here extensively, nobody expected LA's window to be shut right after they won their second Cup... yet it clearly did. It has always been clear there were two main obstacles prior to natural aging. Kadri contract expiration and MacK contract expiration. From there age now starts to play a role along with the next two offseasons of contracts. We know the Kadri contract expiration basically killed last season, and we don't know how MacK's increase will impact the team. If this team ends up with another 1st or 2nd round loss, it would be highly disappointing and a sign the window may infact be shut. We won't know that midstream though, only in hindsight.

There’s definitely some confirmation bias at play, but I also think their models have lost some luster more broadly now that we’re a few years in, the initial shine wore off, and unreasonable expectations weren’t met. When they rolled out, the IHC was wowed by the fancy math underlying the models and the slick, digestible graphics, and most didn’t spend the bandwidth to fully understand what they were reading.

Ehhh I wouldn't say stats are any less valued than they were a couple years ago. I'd probably say they are even more valued than 2-3 years ago. That doesn't mean they are perfect and I do think a lot of nuance is lost within the stats community. I personally don't think they are the word of god, but there is clearly some value.

And I know I state this a lot, but private data is far different than public data.

 

[Avs9296]

There is a chance the window has shut and we don't know it yet. You never really know midstream when things shutdown. As was debated here extensively, nobody expected LA's window to be shut right after they won their second Cup... yet it clearly did. It has always been clear there were two main obstacles prior to natural aging. Kadri contract expiration and MacK contract expiration. From there age now starts to play a role along with the next two offseasons of contracts. We know the Kadri contract expiration basically killed last season, and we don't know how MacK's increase will impact the team. If this team ends up with another 1st or 2nd round loss, it would be highly disappointing and a sign the window may infact be shut. We won't know that midstream though, only in hindsight.

I remember people saying after the season we lost Saad and Donskoi (and maybe a few others I can't remember) that our depth was gone and our window was shut.

Then we won the cup and the goal post got moved down a year.

 

[henchman21]

I remember people saying after the season we lost Saad and Donskoi (and maybe a few others I can't remember) that our depth was gone and our window was shut.

Then we won the cup and the goal post got moved down a year.

I don't recall people saying the window was shut at that point, just that the team on paper was likely to get worse from that team forward. Teams frequently don't win with their best teams on paper, and an argument could be made the Avs best team on paper was the 20-21 team. The analytics and record support it... though that was an odd year in general with the covid schedule, so could be a coincidence too.

 

[The Merchant]

If we go back a few years, we’d see people trumpet how awesome the stats community is and their prognostications are the best. Today, they are just calculations and don’t mean anything. The difference… where the Avs are projected.

I'm not sure why anyone is getting bent out of shape about the projections anyway. The Avs are separated by less than one win between 6th and 3rd.

 

[the_fan]

they were the favorites before that on every one that I saw and still are besides.the Atheletic now

I think I saw them being 3rd or even 5th on some lists, this was way early in the offseason though