Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[Pokecheque]

Not surprising we needed two top six forwards and we acquired exactly zero.

You must not be all that bullish on Johansen.

 

[nammerus]

You must not be all that bullish on Johansen.

Probably should look at his analytics and point totals 3 of the last 4 years. Not much to be bullish about. Unless you think middle of the road players actually start improving at the age of 31.

 

[The Abusement Park]

You must not be all that bullish on Johansen.

I mean he has the talent to be a top 6 guy, but he’s not necessarily a guarantee at this point.

 

[Foppa2118]

I don't see why 7th is so insulting. Even the most heavily-favored contender still only has, like, a 20% chance of winning it all.

It's not that insulting.

Hard to see a logical argument for it though, or the 3rd in the West, and 2nd in the division ranking, when they finished 7th overall last year (tied in points for 6th) 2nd in the West (two points behind Vegas), and won the division with a clear cut worse team that was decimated by injuries.

They didn't get worse and their opponents didn't get that much better.

Even if they think they'll have just as many injuries (which isn't really logical either given how it might have been the most they've ever had, so it's way more likely they'll have less) they still have a much better and deeper team on paper than the one they had last year.

Take Dallas for instance who finished behind the Avs last year. In theory, adding Matt Duchene, Sam Steele, and Craig Smith, shouldn't overcome the difference in the additions of RyJo, Drouin, Colton, Wood, and Tatar, and what is likely at least a somewhat more healthy roster, that can also add Kovalenko during the season.

And I believe Dallas was one of the healthiest teams last year too, so again if we're going with what is more likely, it's that they'll be less healthy than last season, and the Avs will be more healthy.

Either way it's fine though, because rankings are meaningless and usually end up being wrong.

 

[henchman21]

7th seems fair... you could squabble up or down a bit, but seems fair. The Avs on paper, and flatly ignoring last season, added depth... the issue is that depth has had some bad seasons in recent times. The one guy added on the upswing has not played the position he's slotted for often since the 22 deadline. Simply if RyJo, Drouin, and Wood all show up as last year's versions... 7th is honestly very generous. If they show up to their capabilities, you could probably argue a spot or two up.

This idea though that the Avs are going to be healthy suddenly really needs to go away. They are already having bumps and bruises... and guys not recovered with a long offseason. Then when you take into account the Avs' history... odds are high they are top 10 in man games lost, arguably top 5 is a realistic bet. People should lower those expectations of depth really quickly... Clurman, Tufte, Meyers, and Aamodt are getting games this year.

 

[Gumballhead]

Some around here drink the Avs Kool-Aid.
Others around here drink the Kool-Aid of every other team except the Avs.
I'm not saying 7th isn't fair. I think it is as fair as 6th would have been, or 5th, or maybe even 4th. Other teams in the top 7, like Edm and Tor for example, have uncertainties too.

Also that ranking stuff is just to generate clicks. Anyway all we really care about here is windows and how and when they are closed. That’s the real fun of watching sports and cheering on your favorite team.

 

[Foppa2118]

The Avs could lose RyJo for the entire season and they'd still have a better team on paper than last year.

Hell they could lose RyJo, Drouin, and Wood and that would still be the case with Colton > Compher.

Meanwhile, the Stars (who were one of the healthiest teams last year and finished behind the Avs in the standings) biggest addition in Duchene turns 33 this year, and only had 56 points last season when scoring was the highest it's been since 1993-94.

 

[Pokecheque]

I mean he has the talent to be a top 6 guy, but he’s not necessarily a guarantee at this point.

To be fair, if he was, he wouldn't have been available in the first place.

I appreciate the gamble they're taking here. Arguably it's an even riskier deal than the one with Kadri was (and remember he was pretty uneven for the Avs as well until it mattered most).

Either way I feel a lot better about Johansen's prospects as a 2C than I do Compher's.

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

7th isn’t insulting, it’s just not accurate.

 

[The Abusement Park]

The Avs could lose RyJo for the entire season and they'd still have a better team on paper than last year.

Hell they could lose RyJo, Drouin, and Wood and that would still be the case with Colton > Compher.

Meanwhile, the Stars (who were one of the healthiest teams last year and finished behind the Avs in the standings) biggest addition in Duchene turns 33 this year, and only had 56 points last season when scoring was the highest it's been since 1993-94.

That’s… a very rosy outlook. Colton’s still got questions being a 3C for a contender nonetheless a 2C. If RyJo gets a season ending injury they aren’t contending without replacing him with legit 2C.

To be fair, if he was, he wouldn't have been available in the first place.

I appreciate the gamble they're taking here. Arguably it's an even riskier deal than the one with Kadri was (and remember he was pretty uneven for the Avs as well until it mattered most).

Either way I feel a lot better about Johansen's prospects as a 2C than I do Compher's.

Oh 100%. I like the ryjo move and think there’s plenty of upside there. But I also recognize how much risk is also involved with said move. He should be an upgrade over JT which is the minimum expectation.

 

[Foppa2118]

That’s… a very rosy outlook. Colton’s still got questions being a 3C for a contender nonetheless a 2C. If RyJo gets a season ending injury they aren’t contending without replacing him with legit 2C.

I forgot about ERod from last year, so maybe they couldn't lose all of RyJo, Drouin, and Wood.

But that's highly unlikely and that's what it would take for them to be worse on paper than last year.

If they lose RyJo then Colton moves up to 2C where Compher played last year, and I've never seen anyone try to make the case that Compher is better than Colton. He put up good numbers in Tampa in a smaller role with almost no ice time.

 

[Richard88]

I'm ok with these predictions. I hate when my team is the favorite anyway. It always turns bad when it is.

Except for in 2022 when the Avs were overwhelming favourites and dominated 16-4...

 

[The Abusement Park]

I forgot about ERod from last year, so maybe they couldn't lose all of RyJo, Drouin, and Wood.

But that's highly unlikely and that's what it would take for them to be worse on paper than last year.

If they lose RyJo then Colton moves up to 2C where Compher played last year, and I've never seen anyone try to make the case that Compher is better than Colton. He put up good numbers in Tampa in a smaller role with almost no ice time.

Colton’s never played full time C. That’s the question mark with him, i mean realistically you’re looking at a similar impact between those two at 2C.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I don't see why 7th is so insulting. Even the most heavily-favored contender still only has, like, a 20% chance of winning it all.

Yeah exactly.


It's this entire thing that has been going on basically all summer as well anytime anyone is even slightly critical of this team.


Like myself and Henchy who are probably the two loudest critics of the team(Well aside from nammerus who just hates constantly), we get shit on and mocked basically any time we bring up our criticisms of the team which is fine quite frankly I don't really think either of us give a shit...


However, the funny thing about it is even in our criticisms, we still acknowledge the team is a playoff team.and quite frankly ~7th is about where we both have ranked the team all summer long especially since the Tatar acquisition.


But for some folks here they think it's a downright insult to not have the team as a Top 3 team in the league.


It's just really funny to watch unfold.

 

[Avsboy]

Except for in 2022 when the Avs were overwhelming favourites and dominated 16-4...

It was a collective hallucination

 

[Foppa2118]

Colton’s never played full time C. That’s the question mark with him, i mean realistically you’re looking at a similar impact between those two at 2C.

As long as he can play center, which many believe he can, there shouldn't be a reason to think he'll be less impactful there than he was as a part time center with a smaller role in Tampa.

It's also worth noting that despite needing a 4C and Tufte having a good camp, because they're in win mode and are worried about him learning on the job, they have said he'll play wing. While they've been very clear from day 1 that they view Colton as a center.

Colton put up 22 goals 39 points, and 16 goals 32 points playing as a 3rd/4th line tweeter getting less ice time than Compher, whose career high as a full time 3C was 18 goals 33 points.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

Teams which were arguably at or below the Avs in contention status (Tampa has cup expectations but Jersey was just happy to be there) used all of Colton, Wood, Drouin, and Ryjo below where the Avs intend to use them.

You can be optimistic and say the Avs are shelling out barely $10millions in cap space for a 2C 3C and and second and third line wingers. What a bargain!

Or you have question marks all over your middle six on a team that couldn't get out of the first round.

 

[Foppa2118]

Representations of individual positions have become a bit distorted on this.

For some reason fans keep being labeled as "insulted" at the ranking, even though there wasn't anything to suggest that, and multiple people who don't agree with the ranking said they weren't insulted.

While past comments of the Avs contention window supposed to be closed by now (only to push the goal post down the road every year), and even claims from the end of last season that they'll be a bubble team this year, are labeled as "slightly critical."

 

[John Mandalorian]

Wouldn’t there be somewhat of a Pygmalion effect in some/several cases? It seems to happen a decent amount when you’re traded recently and to a team with higher standards recently than the team you came from?

The beauty of Johansen is he was rejected by his previous team so it might be a chip on his shoulder. Then, his second year (unlike Kadri) is a contract year. Kadri’s 1st and 3rd seasons with the Avs were easily better than his second season. Though, there’s a potential Pygmalion effect, there’s also the element of being traded is a blow to the ego.

Bringing up the 4 previous years is fair but possibly not entirely relevant at this point given other possible new factors.

 

[Avsboy]

The team is clearly improved compared to last year. Bigger, but also Drouin, Colton, Wood, Tatar, Tufte, Olofsson are all upgrades on Compher, ERod and whoever else. I think Avs should have kept EJ

 

[John Mandalorian]

The team is clearly improved compared to last year. Bigger, but also Drouin, Colton, Wood, Tatar, Tufte, Olofsson are all upgrades on Compher, ERod and whoever else. I think Avs should have kept EJ

EJ is injured too much.

 

[Foppa2118]

EJ is injured too much.

I think the reason for not keeping EJ should have been if he didn't want to play for around $1M or didn't want to bounce between a 6D and 7D role with JJ.

Otherwise his injury history wouldn't have been a big deal in a 7D role and he definitely would have played at the required level for that. He's not worse than Brad Hunt for example.

If anything, interchanging as a 6/7D would have helped him stay healthy and rejuvenated for the playoffs, where they might need a bigger defenseman like him.

It's understandable they let him go with the cap though. They may also have room for him at 50% on a prorated deal at the deadline, we'll have to see. That cap hit would be around $400k or so.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

The team is clearly improved compared to last year. Bigger, but also Drouin, Colton, Wood, Tatar, Tufte, Olofsson are all upgrades on Compher, ERod and whoever else. I think Avs should have kept EJ

Assuming all of those guys play to the level they are capable of and add Johansen to the list, sure it's an upgrade...


But I think just assuming they play to that level is flat out a huge "drinking the kool-aid" outlook. Only Tatar played to the level he's capable of last year. Both Wood and Johansen were liabilities last year and Colton regressed as well quite frankly(But he's the guy I worry about the least tbh, he shouldn't have any issues replacing JTC for us).


Tufte and Olofsson simply are not upgrades. They're just more of what we already had, in a different form. It really feels like people are putting way too much stock into a few meaningless preseason games on those two.

 

[S E P H]

7th isn’t insulting, it’s just not accurate.

We're always going to have East Coast bias against us, which happens in every sport. The problem is that Vegas and Oilers are probably both over us on that list. Vegas, granted they won the Cup and Cup winners are always high, they lost players in their offseason. Oilers still have the same goaltending and defensive core that got them nowhere yet again. Avs were a fluke Game 7 loss from the second round and made the team better on paper. That should account for at least being better than Edmonton. And because all those Eastern teams have to face each other, that bloodbath should actually decrease their chances for the Cup.

 

[willy702]

The team is clearly improved compared to last year. Bigger, but also Drouin, Colton, Wood, Tatar, Tufte, Olofsson are all upgrades on Compher, ERod and whoever else. I think Avs should have kept EJ

What about EJ's season told you he was better than Brad Hunt?