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Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Part Deux

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dahrougem2 said:
Alright f*** it

Byram
Johansen
2024 1st
2025 1st
Olausson

Lindholm @ 50%
Andersson

Just say yes mfers.
Click to expand...
Even though it is complete madness I’m starting to come around to the unthinkable idea we should really look at not only this but re-signing Lindholm and moving Rantanen im the summer (there’s no way to keep both under the cap).

If Rantanen was driving his own line and making a low to mid tier 2C into a high end one we could afford to be spending this much on the wings and there’s no way we should be doing it. It’s not happening though and the amount of money we’re spending on wingers is out of control even if we can get someone to take Manson to free up that space. Rantanen’s next contract is only going to make this worse. If Landy recovers enough to play again next year we’re tied to him and that only makes the cap situation worse
 
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dahrougem2 said:
Alright f*** it

Byram
Johansen
2024 1st
2025 1st
Olausson

Lindholm @ 50%
Andersson

Just say yes mfers.
Click to expand...
I'd also be fine using that package for Cirelli+Perbix

Line up possibilities in two more years

Lehks Nate (mikko)Nuke
Colton Cirelli Nuke(kovalenko)
Wood(Gabe) Ritchie kovalenko
?? ?? ??

Toews Makar
G Perbix
Behrens Manson?
 
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Would anyone consider Girard, some mix of our 2022 1sts and 2nd picks, and a sweetener for Kadri? With 1 mil retained? Not like his contract will matter in a few years anyway
 
What's great about all this Byram chatter is that if he goes on a heater he'll be HF untouchable. He's not a super young prospect anymore but it kind of feels like next season will be his breakout. D just take longer, despite all the young freaks lighting it up the last 5 years making it seem like you come in fully formed and dominant.
 
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Gumballhead said:
What's great about all this Byram chatter is that if he goes on a heater he'll be HF untouchable. He's not a super young prospect anymore but it kind of feels like next season will be his breakout. D just take longer, despite all the young freaks lighting it up the last 5 years making it seem like you come in fully formed and dominant.
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Yeah people will overreact to the other side when he does go on a heater.

But the defensemen take longer thing is purely a myth. The truth is, if a team doesn't hold back their defensemen, they progress at roughly the same rate as forwards (actually quicker on the defensive side of the puck, bit slower on the offensive side). There are teams that artificially hold back their defensemen for an extra year or two, but evidence is quite strong this is unnecessary and even wasteful of productive years.

If you go back further than the last 5 years, you see where Phaneuf, Myers, Werenski, Krug, EJ, Ekblad, Provorov, Doughty, etc all stepped in and were very quickly near their peak and arguably had some of their best seasons at 22 or younger.
 
henchman21 said:
Yeah people will overreact to the other side when he does go on a heater.

But the defensemen take longer thing is purely a myth. The truth is, if a team doesn't hold back their defensemen, they progress at roughly the same rate as forwards (actually quicker on the defensive side of the puck, bit slower on the offensive side). There are teams that artificially hold back their defensemen for an extra year or two, but evidence is quite strong this is unnecessary and even wasteful of productive years.

If you go back further than the last 5 years, you see where Phaneuf, Myers, Werenski, Krug, EJ, Ekblad, Provorov, Doughty, etc all stepped in and were very quickly near their peak and arguably had some of their best seasons at 22 or younger.
Click to expand...
Sophomore season Doughty was obnoxiously good and wins the Norris many years in the 2010’s. Just had the bad luck of running into an even better season from Keith

The game has changed from the days when players peaked later. It made sense in the more defensive lower scoring eras because guys needed to fill out first but also figure out the league and the huge adjustment from juniors. It’s not like that anymore. The game is built on youth, speed, skating and skill now a lot more than 20 years ago
 
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Byram gets plenty of opportunity.

He’s playing 20 minutes a night, with very little of that coming on the PK. I haven’t checked, but he’s probably taking on easier matchups too.

Miro Heiskanen didn’t play PP1 for several years after being drafted and everyone still looked at him as a top flight defenceman. If you play at a high level, people can look beyond the points.
 
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GeoRox89 said:
Sophomore season Doughty was obnoxiously good and wins the Norris many years in the 2010’s. Just had the bad luck of running into an even better season from Keith

The game has changed from the days when players peaked later. It made sense in the more defensive lower scoring eras because guys needed to fill out first but also figure out the league and the huge adjustment from juniors. It’s not like that anymore. The game is built on youth, speed, skating and skill now a lot more than 20 years ago
Click to expand...
Yeah sophomore Doughty would have dominated the league today and put up 90+ points... he was absurd. He's not this guy anymore, but in Doughty's prime, when he actually cared to play, he was the best defensemen in the league by a good margin. He was just a guy that knew you could take ~30 games off in a season. :laugh:

If you go back to the 60s/70s/80s you even see a lot of younger players stepping right in. Orr won his first Norris at 19. Coffey was 23. Bourque took an eternity to finally win, but was immediately right there. Now those are all timers.... but it really wasn't uncommon then to have young players really step in and play big roles. IMO the whole mid 20s thing for players stems out of the dead puck era where less physically mature players did have issues coming in and had to build up strength, but even that wasn't across the board. Many guys were pretty good early. I also think that era was influenced by the Soviet talent coming over. Most of those players were older and the expanded talent pool lead to less opportunity at 18/19/20.
 
NorthernAvsFan said:
Byram gets plenty of opportunity.

He’s playing 20 minutes a night, with very little of that coming on the PK. I haven’t checked, but he’s probably taking on easier matchups too.

Miro Heiskanen didn’t play PP1 for several years after being drafted and everyone still looked at him as a top flight defenceman. If you play at a high level, people can look beyond the points.
Click to expand...

Yup, if Byram produced offense like he did the prior two years (and stayed healthy) while pulling Miro types roles and defensive level... people would easily acknowledge that. He just isn't playing that level of defense, or even close to it. I fully stand by the idea that I'd much rather have a Byram turn into a 35 point, but elite defensive guy than a flawed 55 point flashy defensemen. If he turned into Miro at 20, that's an amazing player to the point where you get into that #1D debate.

On the matchups, Toews/Makar heavily get to face top lines. They are definitely matched up as much as possible there. They also pull about half the duty against 2nd lines too. The rest of the matchups are pretty evenly split between the Byram/G and JMFJ/Manson pairings when the Avs are healthy. When one of the guys are out, the middle 6 matchups tilt more to Byram. As a whole he's getting a tad less than normal middle pairing quality matchups just due to the bottom pairing taking a few more.
 
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GeoRox89 said:
If Rantanen was driving his own line and making a low to mid tier 2C into a high end one we could afford to be spending this much on the wings and there’s no way we should be doing it.
Click to expand...
It's my impression that this is exactly what Rantanen did last year with JT Compher. Then again, looking at Compher's point totals with Detroit thus far, maybe this is a bit unfair?
 
MacKaRant said:
It's my impression that this is exactly what Rantanen did last year with JT Compher. Then again, looking at Compher's point totals with Detroit thus far, maybe this is a bit unfair?
Click to expand...
Compher will slow down a bit, but Detroit is doing something a bit different there. Compher and Copp are kinda sharing the 2C role. They'll alternate within games rather frequently, and with their coverage can limit the amount of ice that center have to cover. It is actually kinda interesting how they are taking two rather limited centers who can play wing and combining them into a passable product. I think it'll get exposed, but it sure is interesting.
 
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GeoRox89 said:
Even though it is complete madness I’m starting to come around to the unthinkable idea we should really look at not only this but re-signing Lindholm and moving Rantanen im the summer (there’s no way to keep both under the cap).

If Rantanen was driving his own line and making a low to mid tier 2C into a high end one we could afford to be spending this much on the wings and there’s no way we should be doing it. It’s not happening though and the amount of money we’re spending on wingers is out of control even if we can get someone to take Manson to free up that space. Rantanen’s next contract is only going to make this worse. If Landy recovers enough to play again next year we’re tied to him and that only makes the cap situation worse
Click to expand...

We aren't trading a 50 goal winger. Jesus, what is wrong with this place. Isn't the goal to get better instead of worse?

Find me a 50 goal center that we'd get back in a trade and then we can talk.
 
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JH21 said:
We aren't trading a 50 goal winger. Jesus, what is wrong with this place. Isn't the goal to get better instead of worse?

Find me a 50 goal center that we'd get back in a trade and then we can talk.
Click to expand...
Obviously don’t mean this year and it’s in the context of trading for Lindholm and Anderson to load up for one last big run and Landy returning to have that contract on the books.

Going into next season is the last year of Mikko’s contract at that point to re-sign him we’ll be paying Mack 12.5, Cale 9, Landy 7, and Toews 7.25 and then have to be paying Mikko 12. The point is to do a mini retool with the assets from him after having re-signed Lindholm so we actually have a bloody second line centre and can get some cheap depth again

If he had 4.5 years left instead of 1.5 then of course you keep him and sort out the depth. It’s the looming big dollar extension on a team that’s already hurting for depth and a 2C with way too much money committed to wingers that becomes the issue
 
henchman21 said:
Yeah people will overreact to the other side when he does go on a heater.

But the defensemen take longer thing is purely a myth. The truth is, if a team doesn't hold back their defensemen, they progress at roughly the same rate as forwards (actually quicker on the defensive side of the puck, bit slower on the offensive side). There are teams that artificially hold back their defensemen for an extra year or two, but evidence is quite strong this is unnecessary and even wasteful of productive years.

If you go back further than the last 5 years, you see where Phaneuf, Myers, Werenski, Krug, EJ, Ekblad, Provorov, Doughty, etc all stepped in and were very quickly near their peak and arguably had some of their best seasons at 22 or younger.
Click to expand...
I'd argue, and the names you list might give validity to this, but the more quicker dmen step in the more you limit their ceilings. All those guys are fine D in their own right with long careers, but very few lived up to their touted potential. I don't remember all of their paths but Krug strikes me as a weird name as I thought he was a college FA meaning he was more seasoned
 
It's around the time of year that I feel there is enough data to look at advanced stats and draw some interesting conclusions. (These are from Natural Stat Trick.)

Logan O'Connor leads the Avs in 5v5 xGF% at 63.99%, good for 8th in the NHL among skaters with minimum 150 minutes ice time.

Val Nichushkin is 11th in the NHL with 62.78 xGF% at 5v5.

Among defensemen only, Toews is the leading Avs D with 59.00%, good for 9th overall.

And Jack Johnson of all people is 11th overall in the NHL among D with an xGF% 58.52%, assuredly a product of the strong play from our bottom 6.
 
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Freaky Styley said:
I'd argue, and the names you list might give validity to this, but the more quicker dmen step in the more you limit their ceilings. All those guys are fine D in their own right with long careers, but very few lived up to their touted potential. I don't remember all of their paths but Krug strikes me as a weird name as I thought he was a college FA meaning he was more seasoned
Click to expand...
The all time greats at the position almost all jumped in very early though. Even the recent guys like Hedman, Doughty, Karlsson, etc all were before 20.

Krug was 22 in his rookie year so same age as Byram today.
 
MacKaRant said:
It's around the time of year that I feel there is enough data to look at advanced stats and draw some interesting conclusions. (These are from Natural Stat Trick.)

Logan O'Connor leads the Avs in 5v5 xGF% at 63.99%, good for 8th in the NHL among skaters with minimum 150 minutes ice time.

Val Nichushkin is 11th in the NHL with 62.78 xGF% at 5v5.

Among defensemen only, Toews is the leading Avs D with 59.00%, good for 9th overall.

And Jack Johnson of all people is 11th overall in the NHL among D with an xGF% 58.52%, assuredly a product of the strong play from our bottom 6.
Click to expand...
all I read was xGF% is a trash stat
 
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