Speculation: 2023-24 Roster Thread

[Static]

Oh they have every reason to lie. Liability is one

Dude, what? Liability to who, insurance? The only liability that would matter would be silfverberg. If he knew the risks and signed off then there is no liability. If they somehow convinced a doctor to lie to silfverberg, then that is medical malpractice that he would absolutely pursue.

 

[Static]

Dude, what? Liability to who, insurance? The only liability that would matter would be silfverberg. If he knew the risks and signed off then there is no liability. If they somehow convinced a doctor to lie to silfverberg, then that is medical malpractice that he would absolutely pursue.

I should add that no team in good conscience would ever let a player play on blood thinners, because....death.

 

[Rybread86]

High dose vs low dose blood thinners are 2 very different things.

Guys play on blood thinners all the time, low dose and unknowingly or more accurately as a side effect.

It's completely possible they give him a high dose blood thinner to help "heal" the current clot, and then keep him on a low dose and preventative.

Trauma can absolutely cause a clot especially for someone who is susceptible to them. Also could be at a higher risk for infections with the trauma.

 

[Rybread86]

Also, this all depends on where in the system the clot is and if it's moved or not. A clot below the knee that doesn't move has low risks than something that has traveled or is above knee.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

And that's not even factoring in when guys inevitably get hurt. Lacombe, Zellweger, Helleson, and Mintyukov will likely all see time just out of necessity unless Verbeek starts plucking off plugs from the waiver wire like he did with forwards last year.

I actually don't mind seeing the kids get a cup of joe at the NHL level. At least we get a small preview and the prospects get a small taste of NHL play. My mind sees this year as another development year, with the focus on defense at both the NHL and AHL levels. We still don't know what we have in Drysdale and LaCombe looks to secure a spot with the NHL club.

Fowler-Drysdale​

LaCombe-Gudas​

White- (Hinds/Helleson)*​

Hagg​

(Vaaks still on IR)​

* = if we don't pick up a vet D and Vaaks still on IR​

Helleson has had a full season in San Diego last year with a 3-game NHL call up. He still needs marinating as his game wasn't great without MDZ as his partner.

=== AHL ===

AHL roster D

LD: Minty, Zellweger***, Hinds***, Carrick, Wolff**​

RD: Helleson, Profaca**, Costantini**​

​

** = on AHL contracts​

*** = can play RD​

I'd prefer the org make Hinds a RD. It makes sense at the AHL and NHL level. If Hinds finds success, then we don't have to rush the potential three in-coming RD's next season in Warren, Luneau, and Moore.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Alright, I did a quick spreadsheet just to sort of see what kind of space we might be seeing in the next couple of years. Mostly, it's nice to see, based on what I think are reasonable expectations, what our free cap space will be.

I filled the lists out with more players contributing to the total than can be on the roster at any one time, but I think that also helps as it shows we've got plenty of space. This is not meant to be specifically accurate on total salary, but a basic practice to give an idea of our space.

Some assumptions:
- Expecting Rico, Silf, Hagg and White not to be on the roster after this season, due to trades, letting them walk, etc.
- I've thrown out guesses on salaries (text in blue) for some players not signed either this season or following. For example, I'm thinking Drys does a quick 2 year bridge, proves himself and gets paid more. I put Z at $7.8M, but a couple hundred K isn't going to make much of a difference. Assuming LaCombe makes the team out of camp, shows solid play and gets a reasonable bump.
- Indicated contract years in boxes...blue for RFA, red for UFA.
- I don't know what's going to happen w/ Regenda and various prospects down the line. I threw Gaucher and Pasta in there, but either or both of those could generally represent a prospect making the team at below $1M.
- This doesn't obviously account for some bigger trades/signings that could potentially happen. Again, I think seeing the potential cap space allows us to guess what we might be able to do in that realm.
- We could potentially save more by moving Gibby, but for now assuming he stays.

View attachment 733373

For me, the big questions are going to be what happens after 2025-26, regarding our total cap space and the D crunch. Gudas is likely gone, if they retain Cam he probably comes back at a lower cost, but we've got so many young kids, some of whom may need to be paid pretty well. Starting in 2026-27, Carlsson will need a good bump, and one of Minty or Zell (or maybe Luneau?) may show enough that they'll receive a nice payday. I don't think Hinds or Helleson will command more than a couple mil.

Anyway, thoughts?

I think McTavish might command more than $4 mil. My feeling is McTavish will take a big step forward this coming season to where he could break the 60 point threshold knowing that one of at least Rico, Terry, or Killorn will be on his wings.

As for the defense, it all depends on who develops and how fast they develop on how they'll get paid. It's mostly unknown right now.

NHL level potential appearance

2023-24: Drysdale, LaCombe, Helleson/Hinds​

2024-25: Minty, Zell, Helleson, Hinds​

2025-26: Luneau (ELC year 2), Moore​

2026-27: Warren (ELC year 3)​

I think the 2024-25 season is important for the org to see how far along the D-corps is developing. If it's slow going, then we wait another season before making a big splash. If they all pan out, then I don't see Cam coming back. That group might still feel young and the Ducks could try to sign a top-4 vet D or trade for one in the 2026 summer.

 

[AngelDuck]

High dose vs low dose blood thinners are 2 very different things.

Guys play on blood thinners all the time, low dose and unknowingly or more accurately as a side effect.

It's completely possible they give him a high dose blood thinner to help "heal" the current clot, and then keep him on a low dose and preventative.

Trauma can absolutely cause a clot especially for someone who is susceptible to them. Also could be at a higher risk for infections with the trauma.

If by low dose you mean baby aspirin, then yes maybe guys play on that all the time but not really sure

If by low dose you mean Coumadin/Warfarin then I highly highly doubt guys play contact hockey on that “all the time” lol

 

[Static]

High dose vs low dose blood thinners are 2 very different things.

Guys play on blood thinners all the time, low dose and unknowingly or more accurately as a side effect.

It's completely possible they give him a high dose blood thinner to help "heal" the current clot, and then keep him on a low dose and preventative.

Trauma can absolutely cause a clot especially for someone who is susceptible to them. Also could be at a higher risk for infections with the trauma.

Safety would depend on what their clotting times are targeted at. It's pretty rare to be on dedicated blood thinners and also have clotting times that aren't dangerous when subjected to continuous bleeding risks. Maybe there is a different standard I'm not aware of.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Haha

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Time to retire for Silfverberg. I’m on heavy blood thinners due to having open heart surgery. Playing contact sports ain’t it.

Wish him the best

Sincerest best wishes with your health.

100% in agreement about Silf. These blood clot issues are downright scary.

 

[MMC]

 

[branmuffin17]

I think McTavish might command more than $4 mil. My feeling is McTavish will take a big step forward this coming season to where he could break the 60 point threshold knowing that one of at least Rico, Terry, or Killorn will be on his wings.

As for the defense, it all depends on who develops and how fast they develop on how they'll get paid. It's mostly unknown right now.

NHL level potential appearance

2023-24: Drysdale, LaCombe, Helleson/Hinds​

2024-25: Minty, Zell, Helleson, Hinds​

2025-26: Luneau (ELC year 2), Moore​

2026-27: Warren (ELC year 3)​

I think the 2024-25 season is important for the org to see how far along the D-corps is developing. If it's slow going, then we wait another season before making a big splash. If they all pan out, then I don't see Cam coming back. That group might still feel young and the Ducks could try to sign a top-4 vet D or trade for one in the 2026 summer.

Yeah I was trying to guesstimate salaries as accurately as possible, and McT was the one I was most unsure of. I don't think he's going to command close to Z's money with his next contract, but if he does really well then maybe we're talking $5-6? Maybe it's a 2-3 year bridge rather than a big commitment also.

I'm getting hyped for the upcoming season already. I know we're not going to be awesome, but I want to see how new coaching / strats, Killorn / Gudas and some of our prospects will do.

 

[Rybread86]

If by low dose you mean baby aspirin, then yes maybe guys play on that all the time but not really sure

If by low dose you mean Coumadin/Warfarin then I highly highly doubt guys play contact hockey on that “all the time” lol

Well you have to also take into consideration that a lot of different drugs and meds can cause blood thinning, but arent technically anticoagulants.

There are certain rivaroxaban variations, for example, that can be given in different doses that have preventatives in them as well as a blood thinner. Not only can the dosages vary, but the drug type can change too and each has its own unique side effects.

Im on a thinner for the rest of my life and my doc has no concerns with my activities as long as it doesnt include the chance for bleeding, and even then, its only a concern because its harder to get the bleeding to stop.

Im not a doctor and didnt stay at a holiday inn last night, but I can fully understand how it would be determined that hes OK to play and be on some kind of clot preventative, as long as they get the clot itself under control.

Safety would depend on what their clotting times are targeted at. It's pretty rare to be on dedicated blood thinners and also have clotting times that aren't dangerous when subjected to continuous bleeding risks. Maybe there is a different standard I'm not aware of.

Lots of variables, and the biggest variable is the one thing we have no idea about, the individuals medical records. If they say he should be good to go, I really dont have any concerns.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Im not a doctor and didnt stay at a holiday inn last night,

Nice pull.

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

I should add that no team in good conscience would ever let a player play on blood thinners, because....death.

Some players would die and still find a way to come back to play game 7

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Some players would die and still find a way to come back to play game 7

Legend says Hobey Baker descends from the heavens once per year to grant zombie-like powers to one hockey player just for the playoffs, but no one can predict where or who.

edit - DVM-esque autocorrect

 

[Ducks DVM]

Remember when COVID conspiracy talk was off limits?

That time never ended.

Thread bans for anyone who pushes their luck. Only warning.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Yeah I was trying to guesstimate salaries as accurately as possible, and McT was the one I was most unsure of. I don't think he's going to command close to Z's money with his next contract, but if he does really well then maybe we're talking $5-6? Maybe it's a 2-3 year bridge rather than a big commitment also.

I'm getting hyped for the upcoming season already. I know we're not going to be awesome, but I want to see how new coaching / strats, Killorn / Gudas and some of our prospects will do.

=== McTavish 2022-23 Splits ===

I believe McTavish will command around Zegras money. Mac has two more seasons to prove it. Last year, McTavish started off at wing, then 4C with Leason and Jones as his linemates. Then, Mac worked his way up to 3C. Eventually, he played 1C for about a dozen games, starting at game 39, vs Dallas on Jan 4th. Finally, he settled in at 2C for the rest of the season.

Because of not having a proper summer to recover from between his D+1 and D+2 season, McTavish physically looked worn down around game 50. We can see the trend of his scoring faltering in the chart above. Positive thing is McTavish was able to hit 0.80 ppg rate for a 20 game stretch.

=== Zegras v McTavish comparison ===

McTavish's ELC didn't start until his D+2 season, which is Zegras' same ELC timeline. They both had the same scoring rate in their D+2 season. Zegras split time between San Diego and Anaheim in his D+2 season.

Now that McTavish got in his first full pro season and finally have a normal off-season to R&R, I expect a similar jump in production rate in McTavish's D+3 season like Zegras. I can see McTavish probably put up more than 23 goals, especially now that he'll be in the top-6 with top-6 talents around him. McTavish will have at least one of Rico, Killorn, or Terry on his wings.

Projected top-6

Rico-Zegras-Terry​

Vatrano-McTavish-Killorn​

 

[All Mighty]

Terry is a good storyteller, and he’s always willing to share personal stories.

 

[All Mighty]

Lundestrom is exactly where I would expect him to be on a chart like this (bottom right). He is a fantastic skater and a great transition player, but he does not do much with the puck once he enters the zone.

 

[Mr Rogers]

Terry is a good storyteller, and he’s always willing to share personal stories.

just saw this on twitter after a long day of work, really funny just envisioning that. I'd be sooooo pissed haha, i can't imagine having to immediately get in the mindset of playing a game after

 

[MMC]

 

[MMC]

Wonder if Nesterenko might have an opportunity to grab that 4C spot, he was a Center in college even though I know he only played the wing here

 

[All Mighty]

Wonder if Nesterenko might have an opportunity to grab that 4C spot, he was a Center in college even though I know he only played the wing here

I’m pretty sure Cutter Gauthier was his center for most of the season. And I would also be surprised if Nesterenko won the 4C job over Groulx considering each of their waiver statuses, even if he did technically deserve it more.

 

[MMC]

I’m pretty sure Cutter Gauthier was his center for most of the season. And I would also be surprised if Nesterenko won the 4C job over Groulx considering each of their waiver statuses, even if he did technically deserve it more.

I'm probably just thinking of him as a Center since that's what he was announced as at the time of the trade then