2023-24 Roster Thread #8: A Cam York State of Mind

[deadhead]

Before the draft, Perreault was a dark horse for 7OA. You have zero mentions of the word Bonk before they picked him, whereupon he morphed into the actual upside pick and the smart approach. Not the guy who was a consideration at 7OA. Oliver Bonk, who you thought so much of that you never mentioned him. That makes no sense whatsoever unless you simply changed your mind because the Flyers drafted him.

Once again, fair enough. It’s your call. Like who you like for whatever reasons you want. Just don’t expect it to be taken as anything other than what it is.

Perreault was a dark horse at 7 b/c he was expected to go below Benson, who was the real dark horse around 5-7. Teams liked him but were wary of the size and speed issue, same applied to Perreault but he wasn't as good.

I thought Bonk was a solid pick at #22, from what I read he looked like a solid candidate for a defense first top 4 D-man with good size (should fill out to 6'2 210 or so) and mobility. They could have gone either way, Perreault is probably more talented but D-men have more value (a solid top 4 D-man will play 22-23 minutes a night, Perreault will probably play 16-18 minutes a night (given his frame, a smart team might not want to overwork him and risk injury).

One way to look at value is what teams trade for players, full sized D-men who are good defensively but average offensively tend to garner similar value as top but not elite scoring forwards. Top offensive defensemen (both puck carrying and scoring) and centers tend to garner a premium.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Someone in my neighborhood is using a kerosene heater. I can smell it when I'm walking the dog at night. It's a good thing their window is open, because those things should not smell that strong. They've gotta have it set up all wrong. It irks me. I want to fix it.

 

[deadhead]

Comparing the Flyers with Vegas is a real apples to toasters one. And I would be thrilled to emulate Carolina's drafting, trading, and development model. It should be mentioned that between 2013 and 2018 they drafted at 5, 7, 5, 13, 12, and 2.

Heck, go back to 2010, and they still sucked until Brind'Amour took over, when they stopped drafting high.
2010: Skinner #7, Faulk #37
2011: Murphy #12, Rask #42
2012: Slavin #120
2013: Lindholm #5, Pesce #66
2014: Fleury #7, Foegle #67
2015: Hanifin #5, Aho #35
2016: Bean #13, Gauthier #21
2017: Necas #12, Luostarinen #42, Geekie #67
2018: Svechnikov #2, Drury #42
2020: Jarvis #13
Bold are players on the team in 2018-19 when they turned it around
Five years later, the only players still on the team:
Aho, Jarvis, Necas, Svechnikov, Drury, Slavin, Pesce

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Perreault was a dark horse at 7 b/c he was expected to go below Benson, who was the real dark horse around 5-7. Teams liked him but were wary of the size and speed issue, same applied to Perreault but he wasn't as good.

I thought Bonk was a solid pick at #22, from what I read he looked like a solid candidate for a defense first top 4 D-man with good size (should fill out to 6'2 210 or so) and mobility. They could have gone either way, Perreault is probably more talented but D-men have more value (a solid top 4 D-man will play 22-23 minutes a night, Perreault will probably play 16-18 minutes a night (given his frame, a smart team might not want to overwork him and risk injury).

One way to look at value is what teams trade for players, full sized D-men who are good defensively but average offensively tend to garner similar value as top but not elite scoring forwards. Top offensive defensemen (both puck carrying and scoring) and centers tend to garner a premium.

The team that hasn’t spent a Top 100 pick on a Center since 2018 did not make this selection because Centers and Defensemen have trade value premiums. They did so for the reason they directly told us — they wanted a Defenseman in that spot because they believe you build from the D corps out.

Even setting aside what I think of relative positional importance, going into a pick saying you have to take a certain position is one of the hallmarks of poor process. There is no sugar coating this.

 

[deadhead]

The team that hasn’t spent a Top 100 pick on a Center since 2018 did not make this selection because Centers and Defensemen have trade value premiums. They did so for the reason they directly told us — they wanted a Defenseman in that spot because they believe you build from the D corps out.

Even setting aside what I think of relative positional importance, going into a pick saying you have to take a certain position is one of the hallmarks of poor process. There is no sugar coating this.

They also focused on Michkov as the BPA and were willing to trade up to get him.

So this suggests they didn't see Perreault as anything similar talent wise, that is, a tier or two down.

I think they just really liked Bonk, not just b/c he was a "need," but they seem to put a premium on defensive IQ. They didn't draft him for his offensive skill package.

One reason may be synergies, if you have a critical mass of good defensive players on your roster, it's easier to fit in offense first players and play an up tempo style.

Couts has made wingers with questionable defense better his entire career, b/c they know he's going to CYA.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

They also focused on Michkov as the BPA and were willing to trade up to get him.

So this suggests they didn't see Perreault as anything similar talent wise, that is, a tier or two down.

I think they just really liked Bonk, not just b/c he was a "need," but they seem to put a premium on defensive IQ. They didn't draft him for his offensive skill package.

One reason may be synergies, if you have a critical mass of good defensive players on your roster, it's easier to fit in offense first players and play an up tempo style.

Couts has made wingers with questionable defense better his entire career, b/c they know he's going to CYA.

“We got nervous on Bonk,” general manager Daniel Briere said after the first round ended at Bridgestone Arena. “We thought he would go a lot earlier than that. There weren’t many defensemen left that we were excited about in that range."

“We thought a right-shot defenseman like him we just couldn’t pass on.”

8 months later, there's still no polishing this turd of a process.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

“We got nervous on Bonk,” general manager Daniel Briere said after the first round ended at Bridgestone Arena. “We thought he would go a lot earlier than that. There weren’t many defensemen left that we were excited about in that range."

“We thought a right-shot defenseman like him we just couldn’t pass on.”

8 months later, there's still no polishing this turd of a process.

Don’t forget that they proceeded to do the same thing in the next round with goalie because they needed to take a goalie and then wound up taking another in the third round.

The exact opposite of focusing on BPA.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

“We got nervous on Bonk,” general manager Daniel Briere said after the first round ended at Bridgestone Arena. “We thought he would go a lot earlier than that. There weren’t many defensemen left that we were excited about in that range."

“We thought a right-shot defenseman like him we just couldn’t pass on.”

8 months later, there's still no polishing this turd of a process.

Picking for need is not a good strategy.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Don’t forget that they proceeded to do the same thing in the next round with goalie because they needed to take a goalie and then wound up taking another in the third round.

The exact opposite of focusing on BPA.

Wasn't the goalie the highest ranked goalie? No issue with that pick, though not what I would have done. The goalie in the 3rd not sure their logic there.

 

[trostol]

Wasn't the goalie the highest ranked goalie? No issue with that pick, though not what I would have done. The goalie in the 3rd not sure their logic there.

That would require them to be working with logic

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Wasn't the goalie the highest ranked goalie? No issue with that pick, though not what I would have done. The goalie in the 3rd not sure their logic there.

Picking a goalie because there was a run on goalies and you didn’t want to miss out on one of them is not good process.

You take advantage of the value gained in other positions on that run.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

That would require them to be working with logic

Just a guess they knew the Hart day of reckoning was inevitable. So the stocked up.

 

[Magua]

“We thought a right-shot defenseman like him we just couldn’t pass on.”

I have no doubt this was the same logic used for Drysdale. We don't really know the names offered. We do know they specifically didn't want wingers in a trade (the irony). But healthy skepticism is warranted with the highest value pick since 2017 (and until?) being flipped for a RHD. Now, acquiring fit at the NHL level is a different story than drafting......but this one sort of straddles both sides.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Picking a goalie because there was a run on goalies and you didn’t want to miss out on one of them is not good process.

You take advantage of the value gained in other positions on that run.

If you talking about the 3rd rd pick sure. I personally think Carson will be a total bust. I do not see it with him.

They clearly had him ranked high to pick him in the 2nd. Again not the route I go though not gonna crucify them over it. It i who they liked.

Trey Augustine I also do not think will do anything, Fowler on the other hand I think will be an NHL player.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

If you talking about the 3rd rd pick sure. I personally think Carson will be a total bust. I do not see it with him.

They clearly had him ranked high to pick him in the 2nd. Again not the route I go though not gonna crucify them over it. It i who they liked.

Trey Augustine I also do not think will do anything, Fowler on the other hand I think will be an NHL player.

I’m talking about the third pick (2nd round) pick.

Briere said that he took the goalie because of the run on goalies and they didn’t want to miss out.

The same thing happened with Bonk essentially.

They, from my point of view, went into this draft wanting a forward, defenseman, and a goalie in their first three picks.

 

[Kelmitchell2]

Could have taken dragicevic over one of the goalies, taking Bonk when there were several better players on the board, passing on cagnoni he's got good upside, the 3 picks I really liked were michkov, barkey, and ciernik the rest not really fans of, and not a fan of Knuble what so ever

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I’m talking about the third pick (2nd round) pick.

Briere said that he took the goalie because of the run on goalies and they didn’t want to miss out.

The same thing happened with Bonk essentially.

I do not recall him saying that.

 

[deadhead]

“We got nervous on Bonk,” general manager Daniel Briere said after the first round ended at Bridgestone Arena. “We thought he would go a lot earlier than that. There weren’t many defensemen left that we were excited about in that range."

“We thought a right-shot defenseman like him we just couldn’t pass on.”

8 months later, there's still no polishing this turd of a process.

Uh, isn't that saying they had him a lot higher on their draft board?

And yes, like centers, full sized RHDs will get drafted higher than their "raw talent," because of scarcity. No different than the NFL, where players are valued both for their skill and the position they play. Trade value gives you a sense how teams value positions, RHDs and centers get a premium in trades. Same way LH hitters and pitchers are valued higher in MLB.

 

[deadhead]

I’m talking about the third pick (2nd round) pick.

Briere said that he took the goalie because of the run on goalies and they didn’t want to miss out.

The same thing happened with Bonk essentially.

They, from my point of view, went into this draft wanting a forward, defenseman, and a goalie in their first three picks.

Little more complex that that, they traded into the 2nd rd because of the run, but also because they thought the goalie available was worth a 2nd rd pick the following draft, they took the goalie in the 3rd rd because they thought he'd be gone and was BPA at that slot. I don't know when they were informed that Hart was going to be named.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Uh, isn't that saying they had him a lot higher on their draft board?

And yes, like centers, full sized RHDs will get drafted higher than their "raw talent," because of scarcity. No different than the NFL, where players are valued both for their skill and the position they play. Trade value gives you a sense how teams value positions, RHDs and centers get a premium in trades. Same way LH hitters and pitchers are valued higher in MLB.

The bolded is unable to be determined, but I would also point out that almost every pick taken in a draft is higher on their drafting team’s board than the pick used to select them. And of course everyone gets pumped up in the press afterward. Take the quote as a whole and the priority is clear — draft a Defenseman.

The NFL has positions that actually provide more or less value. That comparison does not work on any level. Plus you’re dealing with wildly more advanced prospects than the NHL.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

member that time they signed Staal cuz they were surprized he would play here..

hahaaa i memer...

 

[BiggE]

I’m still stunned they actually took MM. It would have been totally Flyers to have taken Perrault or someone else there.

Other than that, meh. Barkey looks like a very good pick and Ciernik has potential and was a value selection. But Bonk looks like another generic 3rd pairing guy whose ceiling is probably a #4, the goalies are a crapshoot and the rest is yeah, whatever.

I have little confidence that they hit a homerun with what is probably gonna be a pick in the 9-13 range. But here’s hoping.

 

[FromOyVey2Matvei]

I thought Bonk/Perreault were a wash at the time, Bonk was the classic defensive defenseman with mobility and a frame that would fill out. Perreault was a scorer who lacked the high IQ of Benson.

Based on all publicly available pre-draft information, it was not a wash. There’s not a single scouting service that had Bonk above Perreault and in fact, Perreault was multiple tiers above Bonk on most draft rankings.

Now, sometimes the Pronmans and Wheelers of the world get it wrong. Sometimes actual NHL scouts know better and other times Cole Caufield is exactly what all the amateurs thought he was and the pro teams that passed on him look like idiots. Clearly multiple teams (including well respected organizations like the Red Wings and Blackhawks) passed on him. We’ll see who ends up being right. But calling him low IQ is disingenuous. He clearly thinks the offensive game at a high level and has a great understanding of danger areas and how to get the puck there.

I do think Bonk is having a really nice D+1 year. Making the WJC roster was a pleasant surprise and his offense this year is too. Whether his bumper play on the PP is something unique that could potentially translate to the pros or is just not relevant at all remains to be seen (odds are it’s the latter but stranger things have happened). But even without his bumper stats, he’s been better at generating assists at ES.

His offense needs to continue taking steps forward though for him to be a prospect with a comparable ceiling to Perreault’s… and that’s where most fans took issue. Even if Bonk ends up being the better player, unless he’s a legit #2 defenseman, the point will still be valid that a team severely lacking in high end talent (even more-so with Gauthier going bye bye, which DB and Jonesy knew ahead of the draft) passed up a high skill player with a higher ceiling for a “safer” pick.

Perreault is an undersized playmaker with average speed but very good skill. He's having a great freshman season, playing with two other high draft picks, but it still remains to be seen how his skill set will translate to the NHL. He may end up one of those high offense, defensive liability types.

This is a much more fair characterization. His size and skating could hold him back. He probably won’t ever be a PK guy or be confused with a Selke winner (Noah Cates he is not), but if his skill and scoring translates and Bonk ends up just a defensive defenseman, that’s an L for Briere/Jones.

 

[renberg]

With Bonk, he had a couple of intangibles going for him. Because of his Dad, he knows the pro game. Big advantage for future development. Secondly he’s playing for the Hunters in London. They have a history of bringing players along there. Additionally, I’d be willing to bet that DB had a good chat with Dale Hunter about everything Bonk before the draft. Briere knew what he was getting with Bonk.

 

[FromOyVey2Matvei]

Picking a goalie because there was a run on goalies and you didn’t want to miss out on one of them is not good process.

You take advantage of the value gained in other positions on that run.

These post draft pressers are really whatever you want them to be.

If you’re a fan of DB, you seize on the “we had him much higher on our board” and you come to the conclusion they were drafting BPA.

If you think DB is just another Homer/Chuckles then you seize on him talking about wanting a defenseman and conclude they were drafting based on need.

Same with the goalie pick. If you’re a DB believer, it seems kind of obvious Bjarnason was a player they had ranked highly and with the run on goalies, it seemed unlikely he would make it to their next pick, so they made a move.

If you think management is incompetent, you take DB’s comments to mean they wanted one of the top goalies, the run happened and they panic traded to make sure they got whatever was left over.

Me personally, I think looking for answers in 30 second sound bites is foolish. I believe the proof is in the pudding. When I look at this draft class, I see a different process than we’ve used in the past. It starts with Michkov. Prior regimes wouldn’t have even considered him. Barkey is another one Chuck would’ve thumbed his nose at. And Zavragin and Bjarnason fall into the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it category.” Ersson, Fedotov, Kolosov, the one thing this organization has been fairly decent at is identifying talent at the goaltending position in the middle/late rounds. Especially when Ken Hoodikoff is involved. He’s responsible for Bob, Fedotov, Kolosov and now Zavragin. Pretty decent track record vs the pick capital invested.