Cody Webster
Registered User
- Jul 18, 2014
- 26,373
- 24,896
They're going to claim Kuznetsov and use him to get Michkov to come over a year early, aren't they
2023-24 Roster Thread #8: A Cam York State of Mind
- Thread starter MiamiScreamingEagles
- Start date
- Status
FlyerNutter
In the forest, a man learns what it means to live
ponder719
M-M-M-Matvei and the Jett
If that actually works, it'd be worth it to get an extra year of Michkov's career in O&B. The problem is claiming Kuzy and it not having that effect, which given our luck is what would actually happen.
Id place a call to Washington to see what theyd give us to take him off there hands.
I dont think itd impact michkov but it couldnt hurt?
I dont think itd impact michkov but it couldnt hurt?
renberg
Registered User
He took some time off with the player's assistance program earlier in the season. There's probably more baggage with him than you care to handle. Why bring on that after the Hart situation?
VladDrag
Registered User
- Feb 6, 2018
- 6,403
- 16,267
I'm not going to say he's been phenomenal in all phases or hasn't made a mistake, but Bobby Brink has been one the best Flyers with the puck on his stick this season. He brings a type of attacking style that basically 2-3 players on this team can do. He's mature offensively, knows when to pass, knows when to shoot, buys space for himself and others. Defensively, he's been break even in basically all metrics I've seen, and visually I haven't seen many plays where I thought he was out to lunch. I've said this before, he's an "x" factor - he might be a 60-70 point winger. That goes a long way towards the 'rebuild'.
And yet this team, with Torts at the helm, continues to hate the non-physical, diminutive, offensive player because...reasons?
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Curufinwe
Registered User
- Feb 28, 2013
- 56,997
- 45,426
Torts isn't even one of those typical coaches who gets mad at young, offensive players who struggle defensively. He gets mad at them for their defense even when they DON"T struggle defensively.
Frost and Brink have better ES GA/60 results this season than anyone but the low event, very low ice time duo of Staal and Deslauriers.
Frost and Brink have better ES GA/60 results this season than anyone but the low event, very low ice time duo of Staal and Deslauriers.
ponder719
M-M-M-Matvei and the Jett
The Flyers are one of a couple teams where intangibles are the third most valuable "statistic". The only counting stats they rank more highly are bigs and talls, and Brink has very few of both.
Audible Velvet
Registered User
Going down this all too familiar path again, eh? Still baffling how they limit themselves constantly.
Appleyard
Registered User
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Appleyard
Registered User
I mean... by their "D-SCORE" stat (BMI x amount of years on earth divided by 10)
Best 3 Cs defensively: Couturier, Laughton, Poehling
Best 3 Ds defensively: Staal, Seeler, Walker
Best 3 Ws defensively: Deslauriers, Hathaway, Atkinson
Worst C defensively: Frost
Worst 2 D defensively: Drysdale, Zamula
Worst 2 W defensively: Lycksell, Brink
If the boot fits...
and what is even better... the scale is basically out of 100.
Deslauriers has 94.9/100
Best 3 Cs defensively: Couturier, Laughton, Poehling
Best 3 Ds defensively: Staal, Seeler, Walker
Best 3 Ws defensively: Deslauriers, Hathaway, Atkinson
Worst C defensively: Frost
Worst 2 D defensively: Drysdale, Zamula
Worst 2 W defensively: Lycksell, Brink
If the boot fits...
and what is even better... the scale is basically out of 100.
Deslauriers has 94.9/100
Flyerfan4life
Registered User
Audible Velvet
Registered User
Please feel free to make more sarcastic posts. There isn’t enough criticism in the world to amount to what these people deserve.
WolfOfBroadStreet14
Registered User
- Aug 15, 2020
- 731
- 1,026
I think you just stumbled upon a new analytic!
Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
I think it is positively hilarious that as the season progresses all my criticisms that were slammed as pessimism for the sake of negativity are turning out to be well-reasoned and rational.
Flyerfan4life
Registered User
Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
welcome back...
I am positive and optimistic that everyone will learn from this, especially the Flyers. Please be best.
Don't tell that to Charlie, he'll move the goal posts then tell you only he's allowed to change his mind.
scumpup
Registered User
- Nov 29, 2021
- 617
- 1,091
i hope charlie has to get a real job one day and not pretend to understand analytics while writing middleschool tier media about the flyers but i guess thats how sports writing works!
VladDrag
Registered User
- Feb 6, 2018
- 6,403
- 16,267
**Long Post Incoming***
3/4 of the season stat projection check-in for the team. For those who may have missed it, I made point projections for each forward this season where I feel if they achieved, it would be considered a good season from a points prospective. The goals assists points columns are calculated over an 82-game season. For example, Brink is a 40-point player over 82 games, but he won't play 82. He's projected by Elite Prospects to play 61 games and 29 points. The +/- in parenthesis is how far off my projection was.
For reference - this was projections at Game 41 (1/2 thru season)
Post Game 62 Projections (does not include last night's game).
In terms of points, the players who had the best stretch from game 41 to game 62 were Frost (+11), Cates (+8), Laughton and Foerster (+7), and Tippett (+6). Couts had the worst drop off in projected points production at -9. Everyone else was fairly consistent. A few notes on these players.
Frost: I originally projected him for 62 points this season, for a number of reasons. I assumed he would get 2C treatment and play between 15-17m per game at the start of the season. He didn't, and he's barely getting it now. At the beginning of the season, I was starting to think I was unreasonable for that lofty projection. But for the last 40 games, he's been on a 54 point pace, and over the last 20, he's been on a 65 point pace. Maybe 62 is too high over a season, but 54-58 points is a realistic target for Frost going forward, coupled with good underlying metrics -- That's a really good middle of the lineup player...It's just mind-boggling to me why Torts had to play mind games with Frost, or why he's showing up in trade rumors.
Tippett: What can I say, the dude has been producing like crazy -- he's shutting me up. I love it. Over the last 40 games, he's been on a 55 point pace, and over the last 20 he's on a 62 point pace. The only caveat is over the last 40 games, he's getting 17min/game, and over the last 20 games, it's increased to 18 min/game. While that's not a problem now, to me it might signify that Tippett might need this much ice time produce to worthy of his 6M dollar contract. And, when Michkov comes over, the growth of Brink, the growth of Foerster - I don't know if he'll get that ice time. It's not an attack, but it's a realistic worry IMO.
Foerster: Kid is good - real good. @FLYguy3911 said at some point before this season, he felt Foerster had the most realistic offensive upside of all flyers prospects (this was before the draft). After 60 games, I can see that. I think there's a subtle passing element to his game that has yet to show itself at the NHL and that can bring some more points. But even if he ends up being a 35-40 point winger with very good underlying metrics, that's a win! There was talk of him being a center, I don't think he skates well enough for that but I'm willing to try it. Sure Couts is a bad NHL skater, but he's one of the smartest players in the league, and takes up so much space with his long reach. Foerster is smart and big, but I don't know if he's smart enough or big enough. Either way, he's a nice secondary piece.
Couts: This season, to me, was all about just getting Couts through it without injury. Points, stats, underlying metrics -- they were all secondary. As such, I'm not going to harp on it too much, but the degradation of Couts during this season can't be anything but concerning to the fans and team alike. It's not just his raw points production has dropped, his scoring rate has dropped. I've said this before, his expected offensive metrics aren't great, but he's getting great results anyways -- it's too early to definitively tell what that means. It could just be a blip in the timeline, or it could signify the beginning of aging. All I'll do is re-evaluate at game 40 next season, and see where we are.
3/4 of the season stat projection check-in for the team. For those who may have missed it, I made point projections for each forward this season where I feel if they achieved, it would be considered a good season from a points prospective. The goals assists points columns are calculated over an 82-game season. For example, Brink is a 40-point player over 82 games, but he won't play 82. He's projected by Elite Prospects to play 61 games and 29 points. The +/- in parenthesis is how far off my projection was.
For reference - this was projections at Game 41 (1/2 thru season)
| Player | Goals | Assists | Points | SH% | On Ice Sh% |
| Bobby Brink | 16 (+1) | 25 (0) | 41 (+1) | 13.73 | 10.27 |
| Cam Atkinson | 16 (-7) | 21 (-1) | 37 (-8) | 6.72 | 7.44 |
| Garnet Hathaway | 8 (-2) | 2 (-8) | 10 (-10) | 10.81 | 4.44 |
| Joel Farabee | 24 (-1) | 36 (+11) | 60 (+10) | 13.48 | 9.89 |
| Morgan Frost | 19 (-1) | 19 (-23) | 38 (-24) | 12.73 | 7.97 |
| Nicolas Deslauriers | 0 (-5) | 6 (-1) | 6 (-6) | 0 | 2.8 |
| Noah Cates | 4 (-11) | 12 (-8) | 16 (-19) | 5.26 | 5.41 |
| Owen Tippett | 28 (+4) | 20 (+2) | 48 (+6) | 9.72 | 7.52 |
| Ryan Poehling | 9 (+1) | 16 (+4) | 25 (+5) | 8.33 | 6.14 |
| Scott Laughton | 6 (-7) | 28 (+11) | 34 (+4) | 3.26 | 7.54 |
| Sean Couturier | 21 (-4) | 38 (+13) | 59 (+9) | 8.93 | 10.79 |
| Travis Konecny | 42 (+7) | 32 (-15) | 74 (-8) | 15.11 | 10.39 |
| Tyson Foerster | 10 (-3) | 23 (+3) | 33 (0) | 5.75 | 8.54 |
Post Game 62 Projections (does not include last night's game).
| Player | Goals | Assists | Points | SH% | on-ice Sh% |
| Bobby Brink | 18 (+3) | 22 (-3) | 40 (0) | 14.75 | 10 |
| Cam Atkinson | 18 (-5) | 21 (-1) | 39 (-6) | 7.88 | 7.66 |
| Garnet Hathaway | 8 (-2) | 5 (-5) | 13 (-7) | 8.22 | 5.94 |
| Joel Farabee | 24 (-1) | 36 (+11) | 60 (+10) | 12.33 | 9.38 |
| Morgan Frost | 14 (-6) | 35 (-7) | 49 (-13) | 9.38 | 8.43 |
| Nicolas Deslauriers | 0 (-5) | 5 (-2) | 5 (-7) | 0 | 4.3 |
| Noah Cates | 6 (-9) | 18 (-2) | 24 (-11) | 5.77 | 6.83 |
| Owen Tippett | 31 (+7) | 23 (+5) | 54 (+12) | 9.91 | 7.94 |
| Ryan Poehling | 10 (+2) | 17 (+5) | 27 (+7) | 9.46 | 6.89 |
| Scott Laughton | 12 (-1) | 29 (+12) | 41 (+11) | 6.92 | 9.9 |
| Sean Couturier | 15 (-9) | 34 (+9) | 50 (0) | 6.59 | 9.65 |
| Travis Konecny | 39 (+4) | 39 (-8) | 78 (-4) | 14.29 | 10.03 |
| Tyson Foerster | 23 (+10) | 17 (-3) | 40 (+7) | 12.8 | 10.07 |
In terms of points, the players who had the best stretch from game 41 to game 62 were Frost (+11), Cates (+8), Laughton and Foerster (+7), and Tippett (+6). Couts had the worst drop off in projected points production at -9. Everyone else was fairly consistent. A few notes on these players.
Frost: I originally projected him for 62 points this season, for a number of reasons. I assumed he would get 2C treatment and play between 15-17m per game at the start of the season. He didn't, and he's barely getting it now. At the beginning of the season, I was starting to think I was unreasonable for that lofty projection. But for the last 40 games, he's been on a 54 point pace, and over the last 20, he's been on a 65 point pace. Maybe 62 is too high over a season, but 54-58 points is a realistic target for Frost going forward, coupled with good underlying metrics -- That's a really good middle of the lineup player...It's just mind-boggling to me why Torts had to play mind games with Frost, or why he's showing up in trade rumors.
Tippett: What can I say, the dude has been producing like crazy -- he's shutting me up. I love it. Over the last 40 games, he's been on a 55 point pace, and over the last 20 he's on a 62 point pace. The only caveat is over the last 40 games, he's getting 17min/game, and over the last 20 games, it's increased to 18 min/game. While that's not a problem now, to me it might signify that Tippett might need this much ice time produce to worthy of his 6M dollar contract. And, when Michkov comes over, the growth of Brink, the growth of Foerster - I don't know if he'll get that ice time. It's not an attack, but it's a realistic worry IMO.
Foerster: Kid is good - real good. @FLYguy3911 said at some point before this season, he felt Foerster had the most realistic offensive upside of all flyers prospects (this was before the draft). After 60 games, I can see that. I think there's a subtle passing element to his game that has yet to show itself at the NHL and that can bring some more points. But even if he ends up being a 35-40 point winger with very good underlying metrics, that's a win! There was talk of him being a center, I don't think he skates well enough for that but I'm willing to try it. Sure Couts is a bad NHL skater, but he's one of the smartest players in the league, and takes up so much space with his long reach. Foerster is smart and big, but I don't know if he's smart enough or big enough. Either way, he's a nice secondary piece.
Couts: This season, to me, was all about just getting Couts through it without injury. Points, stats, underlying metrics -- they were all secondary. As such, I'm not going to harp on it too much, but the degradation of Couts during this season can't be anything but concerning to the fans and team alike. It's not just his raw points production has dropped, his scoring rate has dropped. I've said this before, his expected offensive metrics aren't great, but he's getting great results anyways -- it's too early to definitively tell what that means. It could just be a blip in the timeline, or it could signify the beginning of aging. All I'll do is re-evaluate at game 40 next season, and see where we are.
Tripod
I hate this team
I keep getting the feeling that Jake Allen will be a Flyer on Friday.
ponder719
M-M-M-Matvei and the Jett
THANK YOU! I have been trying for YEARS to develop a proper advanced stat to truly express the Flyers' priorities in drafting and development, and you have finally cracked the code.
Soooooooo let's just let this sit here and wait to see how things develop
Yeah that great playoff spot right now looks like it might see a challenge.
Yeah that great playoff spot right now looks like it might see a challenge.
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,806
- 90,260
They owe it to the boys in the locker room to go for it.
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