2023-24 Roster Thread #7: A shave and a haircut, two bits

[trostol]

look..if you don't get a first for Walker..fine..re-sign him for a decent amount on short term with no sort of NMC-NTC and try again next year...but they have to move someone from that D-Corps

 

[BernieParent]

look..if you don't get a first for Walker..fine..re-sign him for a decent amount on short term with no sort of NMC-NTC and try again next year...but they have to move someone from that D-Corps

Frost?

 

[deadhead]

They missed the chance to sell sanheim but tk is still an option. You have to have valuable players to get assets to rebuild with which Fletcher missed

What are you going to get for TK that's as good a player?

You're not getting a top ten draft pick, more like a late 1st, 2nd, and a solid prospect who is close to NHL ready with a lower upside than TK.

When we talk about the rebuilding window, when Michkov comes over in 2026,
TK will be 29, Frost, Cates and Tippett 27, Farabee 26, Brink 25, Foerster 24, Tuomaala 23, Barkey 21
Sanheim 30, Zamula 26, York and Andrae 25, Drysdale 24, Bonk 21
Ersson 27, Kolosov, 24, Zavragin 21
Couts will be the grizzled veteran at 34, Poehling will be 28 if he's still here.
Laughton, Deslauriers, Hathaway, Risto, Seeler, Walker, will be history,

They will also have (3) 1st and (4) 2nd rd picks in the 2024 and 2025 drafts before TDL trades.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Frost?

100% hes gone for peanuts...

hes not in Torts plan

 

[Appleyard]

In the last 30 years the Flyers have drafted just 5x top 6 centres... as a result they have often been weak depth wise down the middle or had to go out and buy C's, the most expensive position in the sport both in cap hit and trade cost.

If they move on from the latest of them at 25 years old... for no real reason... while he is still improving? Yeh, I mean... would be very Flyers.

 

[flyersnorth]

Just listened to Charlie O's interview with Bob Rotruck.

Kind of interested in seeing Tuomaala. 2nd in rookie scoring in the AHL, blazing speed, just turned 21, and sounds like he's been very impressive this season.

Charlie says he could see him as a Carl Hagelin middle-six type, that contributes on and off the score sheet and causes matchup problems for other teams.

Rotruck also said Brink has looked spectacular in his two games, like night and day from the player last year.

 

[Rebels57]

Just listened to Charlie O's interview with Bob Rotruck.

Kind of interested in seeing Tuomaala. 2nd in rookie scoring in the AHL, blazing speed, just turned 21, and sounds like he's been very impressive this season.

Charlie says he could see him as a Carl Hagelin middle-six type, that contributes on and off the score sheet and causes matchup problems for other teams.

Rotruck also said Brink has looked spectacular in his two games, like night and day from the player last year.

Did Charlie ask Rotruck how Lappy still has a job?

 

[deadhead]

In the last 30 years the Flyers have drafted just 5x top 6 centres... as a result they have often been weak depth wise down the middle or had to go out and buy C's, the most expensive position in the sport both in cap hit and trade cost.

If they move on from the latest of them at 25 years old... for no real reason... while he is still improving? Yeh, I mean... would be very Flyers.

They're not moving on from Frost unless he resorts to his "toilet seat play" and wants to be paid on points production but not his overall play. That is, they see him as a true 2C if he learns to bring it every shift and play as hard off the puck as with the puck. When he does so, he's a player you can build around.

One impression I've got from seeing so many "cards" on X, is how many scorers are serious defensive liabilities, and I think metrics undervalue defense and don't measure some aspects (the dog that didn't bark in the night, the plays that don't happen b/c you get back in position), especially board play that retain/change possession - I think there will be subtle chances in player valuation as better data becomes available (think of NFL data on WR separation, that gives a better idea of both WR and QB value).

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If one skater's board play doesn't lead to shot impacts over a large enough sample size, what value does it have beyond being a kink?

 

[WolfOfBroadStreet14]

Just listened to Charlie O's interview with Bob Rotruck.

Kind of interested in seeing Tuomaala. 2nd in rookie scoring in the AHL, blazing speed, just turned 21, and sounds like he's been very impressive this season.

Charlie says he could see him as a Carl Hagelin middle-six type, that contributes on and off the score sheet and causes matchup problems for other teams.

Rotruck also said Brink has looked spectacular in his two games, like night and day from the player last year.

If Tuomaala really has that type of ceiling and the Flyers expect him to hit that I can’t see us extending TK. TK obviously is a different skill set and a much better player than Tuo but with Michkov Tippett Foerster Brink Tuo than we’d have so many rws even if you move one or two to LW.

 

[deadhead]

If Tuomaala really has that type of ceiling and the Flyers expect him to hit that I can’t see us extending TK. TK obviously is a different skill set and a much better player than Tuo but with Michkov Tippett Foerster Brink Tuo than we’d have so many rws even if you move one or two to LW.

Tuomaala is likely to spend another full season in the AHL, his game needs a lot of work, he can skate and shoot, but Tippett who is more talented, struggled for a couple years before translating that into NHL production. Tuomaala, if he fills out his stout frame and embraces the forecheck is exactly what many say we need on the 4th line. Avon - Poehling - Tuomaala would be a track meet of a 4th line.

The player who could force a TK trade is Brink, but he seems to be comfortable on the left side.
Same with Foerster if he is better on the right side.

Michkov, TK, Tippett, Brink, Foerster, Tuomaala. Gendron also a RW.

 

[Appleyard]

If Tuomaala really has that type of ceiling and the Flyers expect him to hit that I can’t see us extending TK. TK obviously is a different skill set and a much better player than Tuo but with Michkov Tippett Foerster Brink Tuo than we’d have so many rws even if you move one or two to LW.

Tbf Tippett and Foerster are already playing LW! (well, Foerster spent most of this year there)

 

[BrindamoursNose]

In the last 30 years the Flyers have drafted just 5x top 6 centres... as a result they have often been weak depth wise down the middle or had to go out and buy C's, the most expensive position in the sport both in cap hit and trade cost.

If they move on from the latest of them at 25 years old... for no real reason... while he is still improving? Yeh, I mean... would be very Flyers.

This is a fun guessing game as to who the 5 Top 6 centers are

Giroux
Forsberg
Couturier
Frost

You've got me on the 5th (assuming the previous 4 are considered correct)

 

[ponder719]

This is a fun guessing game as to who the 5 Top 6 centers are

Giroux
Forsberg
Couturier
Frost

You've got me on the 5th (assuming the previous 4 are considered correct)

Forsberg was drafted outside the 30 year window (god help me, I'm old). Carter and Richards were both top 6 centers (though I feel like Carter moved around a bit more than that; definitely T6, not always a C), and Sharp was drafted as a center, though I think he mostly played wing when he was a T6 guy.

 

[Beef Invictus]

This is a fun guessing game as to who the 5 Top 6 centers are

Giroux
Forsberg
Couturier
Frost

You've got me on the 5th (assuming the previous 4 are considered correct)

You can do this! 2003 is my hint to you

 

[Appleyard]

This is a fun guessing game as to who the 5 Top 6 centers are

Giroux
Forsberg
Couturier
Frost

You've got me on the 5th (assuming the previous 4 are considered correct)

Giroux, Richards, Carter, Couturier... and now Frost

Forsberg was almost 33 years ago now.

Carter and Giroux ofc played C and W.

But Carter has played ~10 years of his 20 year career as a C really. Giroux 8 of his 17.

 

[flyersnorth]

If Tuomaala really has that type of ceiling and the Flyers expect him to hit that I can’t see us extending TK. TK obviously is a different skill set and a much better player than Tuo but with Michkov Tippett Foerster Brink Tuo than we’d have so many rws even if you move one or two to LW.

Friedman said last night he gets the sense Flyers are working on extending TK.

We already extended Tippett, and I can't see them moving Farabee or Foerster in the short term.

Depending on what happens at the deadline, I could see Tuomaala getting some games after that.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Unless I’m forgetting someone, the next best name on that list would be semi-Center Vinny Prospal? And even he was one year over the specified limit (‘93). These were sobering thoughts.

Fun player, though.

 

[Appleyard]

Unless I’m forgetting someone, the next best name on that list would be semi-Center Vinny Prospal? And even he was one year over the specified limit (‘93). These were sobering thoughts.

Fun player, though.

Him and Zubrus were both drafted as C's... but yeh...

Prospal only really spent ~3 years at C primarily in whole career.
Zubrus had ~5 years as a top 6 level guy, and played a few years at C but was primarily a RW over career.

 

[deadhead]

If one skater's board play doesn't lead to shot impacts over a large enough sample size, what value does it have beyond being a kink?

It's like WR separation, it might not show up with a bad QB, but it helps a good QB.
Better stats will isolate individual player contributions and identify "bottleneck" players where the puck goes to die.

Left out variable error is the bane of regression analysis.

 

[Appleyard]

It's like WR separation, it might not show up with a bad QB, but it helps a good QB.
Better stats will isolate individual player contributions and identify "bottleneck" players where the puck goes to die.

Left out variable error is the bane of regression analysis.

From doing a lot of regression analysis over my life...

another bane is adding in additional factors on other peoples whims that you already examined, so know don't move the R value more than 0.000000001 because the initial ~5 factors that you spent a good amount of time identifying account already for an extremely strong correlation that explains things pretty well and therefore other factors are nothing more than noise over a large sample size!

Microstat models in general do a pretty good job of identifying what provides value. Though ofc always worth trying to improve.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Giroux, Richards, Carter, Couturier... and now Frost

Forsberg was almost 33 years ago now.

Carter and Giroux ofc played C and W.

But Carter has played ~10 years of his 20 year career as a C really. Giroux 8 of his 17.

Listen, I may have done math wrong. And forgotten that Richards/Carter even existed.

It has not been a banner morning for me so far.

You can do this! 2003 is my hint to you

How could I have forgotten?! I was one of the girls who partied with them in Old City in that one photo on the internet.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Better stats will isolate individual player contributions and identify "bottleneck" players where the puck goes to die.

Left out variable error is the bane of regression analysis.

Please remember that I included the caveat of over a large enough sample size. That’s pulling quite a bit of weight here. 40 games definitely isn’t enough. Neither is 82. I understand what you’re saying. I’m in favor of hunting down every tiny edge you can find. I just don’t see how this one in particular can lead to broad conclusions like that. Especially in a sport where the absence of events is value.

What does “the puck goes to die” mean in this case? Because we do have plenty of examples of players who achieve varying degrees of success in Shot suppression via killing a ton of time in the offensive zone along the boards. Prime Zach Aston-Reese is always my go to example here. Why does it show up for some and not others? Are we maybe trying to project player growth rather than using these models descriptively?

 

[Chinatown88]

Please remember that I included the caveat of over a large enough sample size. That’s pulling quite a bit of weight here. 40 games definitely isn’t enough. Neither is 82. I understand what you’re saying. I’m in favor of hunting down every tiny edge you can find. I just don’t see how this one in particular can lead to broad conclusions like that. Especially in a sport where the absence of events is value.

What does “the puck goes to die” mean in this case? Because we do have plenty of examples of players who achieve varying degrees of success in Shot suppression via killing a ton of time in the offensive zone along the boards. Prime Zach Aston-Reese is always my go to example here. Why does it show up for some and not others? Are we maybe trying to project player growth rather than using these models descriptively?

Surely you have a backlog of video games/books to get through that's a better use of your semi retired time than this?

Bless your soul for still attempting.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Surely you have a backlog of video games/books to get through that's a better use of your semi retired time than this?

Bless your soul for still attempting.

Deady knows a lot more about these types of numbers than I do. My advanced training background is largely cryptography. The second you assume knowledgeable people can't teach you anything, you've failed yourself.