2023-24 Roster Thread #7: A shave and a haircut, two bits

[CerpinTaxt]

One combined scratch so far this season for Nic D and Garnet H.

ES GF% for the season so far
Frost - 64%

Brink - 58.97%
Farabee - 58.49%
Konecny - 57.14%
Couturier - 56.52%
Foerster - 55.56%

Tippett - 48%
Laughton - 43.9%
Atkinson - 41.67%

Cates - 38.89%
Poehling - 37.93%

Deslauriers - 28.57%
Hathaway - 27.27%

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Yea well how dare you question torts eh? How many Stanley cup teams have you coached in the last 20 years? Better yet how many playoff rounds have you won as a coach in the past 10 years.

John has 1 each up on you so just enjoy the wins okay

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I am unsure where to post this but:

i hope he punched Torts in the face

 

[Curufinwe]

I would if they had wins plural in the last two weeks!

 

[AdamParrot]

I'm (almost) done with Owen Tippett.

Also I love so much TK, but still believe that trading him for a BIG return is the best option for the future.

 

[trostol]

TK would fetch what..2 1sts and a prospect

 

[Appleyard]

Figured that some twitter posts from last 2 days would be of interest in a full post...

There have, really, been just handful of teams whove managed to give selves elongated (6+ year) Stanley Cup window since lockout.

All have something in common. Young core in place at start that go basically whole way through window. Ideally including 1C, 1D+other star.

PIT (07-18) Crosby (20), Malkin (21), Letang (20), Fleury (23)
CHI (08-17) Keith (25), Toews (20), Kane (20), Seabrook (23)
LAK (09-16) Doughty (20), Kopitar (22), Quick (24), Brown (24)
TBL (14-present): Hedman (24), Stamkos (24), Kucherov (21), Vasilevskiy (20)

Not just applicable to multi-cup champs:

BOS (08-20): Bergeron (23), Krejci (22), Chara (30), Marchand (20)
WSH (09-17): Ovechkin (24), Bäckström (22), Carlson (20), Alzner (21)
COL (18-present): MacKinnon (23), Makar (20), Rantanen (22), Girard (20), Landeskog (25)

Now, yeh... Chara was 30! And guess no one expected him to still be a 1D 10 years later.

But basically every other team with long window?

A group of 4-5 guys, including a young 1C+1D, all within ~4 years in age to start window.

Makes total sense. Why?

NHL players primes are generally between ages 23-32.

So if have 1C, 1D and another star all within ~3-4 years age?

The components needed to build a Cup Winner around?

That likely gives you a ~7-8 year span where all 3 will be in primes, and can "just" worry about supporting cast.

And 7-8 years is really what team needs as top ~5 team in NHL to have good odds of winning cup.

Coming top 5 in season gives team ~12% chance of winning that cup.

Over 7-8 years? Going into play-offs with ~12% chance each time?

59-64% chance of winning over 7-8 years.

Having only a ~3 year window?

Even if a top ~2-3 team and therefore have ~15% chance of winning?

~27-38% chance over such a short window.

The odds say that if have those pieces in place, and build around them to the point are a top ~5 team roughly year on year?

3 years: 31.8% chance of 1 cup in span
4 years: 40%
5 years: 47.2%
6 years: 53.6%
7 years: 59.1%
8 years: 64%
9 years: 68.4%

So when it comes to the Flyers... and Michkov and Gauthier hopefully getting to level need them to be?

2026 is probably "start" of a potential window.

They NEED 1D by then/around then to really contend.

If 1D is ~u-25? Likely have ~7-8 year window.
If 1D is a UFA/trade who is ~28+ in 2026? Likely have a 3-4 year window.

So when it comes to getting to the promised land? And aquiring a 1D? In an IDEAL world? THIS draft would be the time to do it. Of course takes luck, and cant guarantee anything. But if get a future 1D who is born ~2001 or later? Then probably double odds of a cup as opposed to doing the classic Flyers thing of trying to buy one in UFA at age ~28-32.

 

[tnfrs]

Figured that some twitter posts from last 2 days would be of interest in a full post...

There have, really, been just handful of teams whove managed to give selves elongated (6+ year) Stanley Cup window since lockout.

All have something in common. Young core in place at start that go basically whole way through window. Ideally including 1C, 1D+other star.

PIT (07-18) Crosby (20), Malkin (21), Letang (20), Fleury (23)
CHI (08-17) Keith (25), Toews (20), Kane (20), Seabrook (23)
LAK (09-16) Doughty (20), Kopitar (22), Quick (24), Brown (24)
TBL (14-present): Hedman (24), Stamkos (24), Kucherov (21), Vasilevskiy (20)

Not just applicable to multi-cup champs:

BOS (08-20): Bergeron (23), Krejci (22), Chara (30), Marchand (20)
WSH (09-17): Ovechkin (24), Bäckström (22), Carlson (20), Alzner (21)
COL (18-present): MacKinnon (23), Makar (20), Rantanen (22), Girard (20), Landeskog (25)

Now, yeh... Chara was 30! And guess no one expected him to still be a 1D 10 years later.

But basically every other team with long window?

A group of 4-5 guys, including a young 1C+1D, all within ~4 years in age to start window.

Makes total sense. Why?

NHL players primes are generally between ages 23-32.

So if have 1C, 1D and another star all within ~3-4 years age?

The components needed to build a Cup Winner around?

That likely gives you a ~7-8 year span where all 3 will be in primes, and can "just" worry about supporting cast.

And 7-8 years is really what team needs as top ~5 team in NHL to have good odds of winning cup.

Coming top 5 in season gives team ~12% chance of winning that cup.

Over 7-8 years? Going into play-offs with ~12% chance each time?

59-64% chance of winning over 7-8 years.

Having only a ~3 year window?

Even if a top ~2-3 team and therefore have ~15% chance of winning?

~27-38% chance over such a short window.

The odds say that if have those pieces in place, and build around them to the point are a top ~5 team roughly year on year?

3 years: 31.8% chance of 1 cup in span
4 years: 40%
5 years: 47.2%
6 years: 53.6%
7 years: 59.1%
8 years: 64%
9 years: 68.4%

So when it comes to the Flyers... and Michkov and Gauthier hopefully getting to level need them to be?

2026 is probably "start" of a potential window.

They NEED 1D by then/around then to really contend.

If 1D is ~u-25? Likely have ~7-8 year window.
If 1D is a UFA/trade who is ~28+ in 2026? Likely have a 3-4 year window.

So when it comes to getting to the promised land? And aquiring a 1D? In an IDEAL world? THIS draft would be the time to do it. Of course takes luck, and cant guarantee anything. But if get a future 1D who is born ~2001 or later? Then probably double odds of a cup as opposed to doing the classic Flyers thing of trying to buy one in UFA at age ~28-32.

if you had to put it all in on one defender in this draft, who would you say has the best chance of reaching that ceiling if everything else with the Flyer's front office and coaching staff stays the same

 

[VladDrag]

Figured that some twitter posts from last 2 days would be of interest in a full post...

There have, really, been just handful of teams whove managed to give selves elongated (6+ year) Stanley Cup window since lockout.

All have something in common. Young core in place at start that go basically whole way through window. Ideally including 1C, 1D+other star.

PIT (07-18) Crosby (20), Malkin (21), Letang (20), Fleury (23)
CHI (08-17) Keith (25), Toews (20), Kane (20), Seabrook (23)
LAK (09-16) Doughty (20), Kopitar (22), Quick (24), Brown (24)
TBL (14-present): Hedman (24), Stamkos (24), Kucherov (21), Vasilevskiy (20)

Not just applicable to multi-cup champs:

BOS (08-20): Bergeron (23), Krejci (22), Chara (30), Marchand (20)
WSH (09-17): Ovechkin (24), Bäckström (22), Carlson (20), Alzner (21)
COL (18-present): MacKinnon (23), Makar (20), Rantanen (22), Girard (20), Landeskog (25)

Now, yeh... Chara was 30! And guess no one expected him to still be a 1D 10 years later.

But basically every other team with long window?

A group of 4-5 guys, including a young 1C+1D, all within ~4 years in age to start window.

Makes total sense. Why?

NHL players primes are generally between ages 23-32.

So if have 1C, 1D and another star all within ~3-4 years age?

The components needed to build a Cup Winner around?

That likely gives you a ~7-8 year span where all 3 will be in primes, and can "just" worry about supporting cast.

And 7-8 years is really what team needs as top ~5 team in NHL to have good odds of winning cup.

Coming top 5 in season gives team ~12% chance of winning that cup.

Over 7-8 years? Going into play-offs with ~12% chance each time?

59-64% chance of winning over 7-8 years.

Having only a ~3 year window?

Even if a top ~2-3 team and therefore have ~15% chance of winning?

~27-38% chance over such a short window.

The odds say that if have those pieces in place, and build around them to the point are a top ~5 team roughly year on year?

3 years: 31.8% chance of 1 cup in span
4 years: 40%
5 years: 47.2%
6 years: 53.6%
7 years: 59.1%
8 years: 64%
9 years: 68.4%

So when it comes to the Flyers... and Michkov and Gauthier hopefully getting to level need them to be?

2026 is probably "start" of a potential window.

They NEED 1D by then/around then to really contend.

If 1D is ~u-25? Likely have ~7-8 year window.
If 1D is a UFA/trade who is ~28+ in 2026? Likely have a 3-4 year window.

So when it comes to getting to the promised land? And aquiring a 1D? In an IDEAL world? THIS draft would be the time to do it. Of course takes luck, and cant guarantee anything. But if get a future 1D who is born ~2001 or later? Then probably double odds of a cup as opposed to doing the classic Flyers thing of trying to buy one in UFA at age ~28-32.

Can you add a TL/DR?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Figured that some twitter posts from last 2 days would be of interest in a full post...

There have, really, been just handful of teams whove managed to give selves elongated (6+ year) Stanley Cup window since lockout.

All have something in common. Young core in place at start that go basically whole way through window. Ideally including 1C, 1D+other star.

PIT (07-18) Crosby (20), Malkin (21), Letang (20), Fleury (23)
CHI (08-17) Keith (25), Toews (20), Kane (20), Seabrook (23)
LAK (09-16) Doughty (20), Kopitar (22), Quick (24), Brown (24)
TBL (14-present): Hedman (24), Stamkos (24), Kucherov (21), Vasilevskiy (20)

Not just applicable to multi-cup champs:

BOS (08-20): Bergeron (23), Krejci (22), Chara (30), Marchand (20)
WSH (09-17): Ovechkin (24), Bäckström (22), Carlson (20), Alzner (21)
COL (18-present): MacKinnon (23), Makar (20), Rantanen (22), Girard (20), Landeskog (25)

Now, yeh... Chara was 30! And guess no one expected him to still be a 1D 10 years later.

But basically every other team with long window?

A group of 4-5 guys, including a young 1C+1D, all within ~4 years in age to start window.

Makes total sense. Why?

NHL players primes are generally between ages 23-32.

So if have 1C, 1D and another star all within ~3-4 years age?

The components needed to build a Cup Winner around?

That likely gives you a ~7-8 year span where all 3 will be in primes, and can "just" worry about supporting cast.

And 7-8 years is really what team needs as top ~5 team in NHL to have good odds of winning cup.

Coming top 5 in season gives team ~12% chance of winning that cup.

Over 7-8 years? Going into play-offs with ~12% chance each time?

59-64% chance of winning over 7-8 years.

Having only a ~3 year window?

Even if a top ~2-3 team and therefore have ~15% chance of winning?

~27-38% chance over such a short window.

The odds say that if have those pieces in place, and build around them to the point are a top ~5 team roughly year on year?

3 years: 31.8% chance of 1 cup in span
4 years: 40%
5 years: 47.2%
6 years: 53.6%
7 years: 59.1%
8 years: 64%
9 years: 68.4%

So when it comes to the Flyers... and Michkov and Gauthier hopefully getting to level need them to be?

2026 is probably "start" of a potential window.

They NEED 1D by then/around then to really contend.

If 1D is ~u-25? Likely have ~7-8 year window.
If 1D is a UFA/trade who is ~28+ in 2026? Likely have a 3-4 year window.

So when it comes to getting to the promised land? And aquiring a 1D? In an IDEAL world? THIS draft would be the time to do it. Of course takes luck, and cant guarantee anything. But if get a future 1D who is born ~2001 or later? Then probably double odds of a cup as opposed to doing the classic Flyers thing of trying to buy one in UFA at age ~28-32.

This is why I think the three year window from Michkov is a gift. There's your reason to sell everything and start anew with a large young group all coming together at once.

 

[Appleyard]

if you had to put it all in on one defender in this draft, who would you say has the best chance of reaching that ceiling if everything else with the Flyer's front office and coaching staff stays the same

Buium for me...

 

[tnfrs]

Buium for me...

nice, he was impressive at the WJC for sure

 

[Appleyard]

Can you add a TL/DR?

Basically... Flyers if everything goes well need a 1D to compete still.
If they want to contend for more than ~3-4 years... that 1D has to be at most ~2 years older than Gauthier... and likely at most ~2 years younger than Michkov.
If they can procure a 1D in that age-group, Michkov and Gauthier become a Star winger and 1C, and they build a solid team around them?
Then they probably have a ~7-8 year window and stats wise if can be a top team over that span...
Have a ~60% chance of winning 1 Cup.

nice, he was impressive at the WJC for sure

I do think there are several Dmen who have legit 1D upside though (albeit to different extents).

Buium
Levshunov
Dickinson
Parekh
Silayev
Jiricek
Kiviharju
Hutson

The last time that in draft year were so many guys who had the tools to get there was 2008 for sure.

Now of those ~8 how many will be 1D? If 5 get there that would be very impressive.

 

[tnfrs]

Basically... Flyers if everything goes well need a 1D to compete still.
If they want to contend for more than ~3-4 years... that 1D has to be at most ~2 years older than Gauthier... and likely at most ~2 years younger than Michkov.
If they can procure a 1D in that age-group, Michkov and Gauthier become a Star winger and 1C, and they build a solid team around them?
Then they probably have a ~7-8 year window and stats wise if can be a top team over that span...
Have a ~60% chance of winning 1 Cup.



I do think there are several Dmen who have legit 1D upside though (albeit to different extents).

Buium
Levshunov
Dickinson
Parekh
Silayev
Jiricek
Kiviharju
Hutson

The last time that in draft year were so many guys who had the tools to get there was 2008 for sure.

Now of those ~8 how many will be 1D? If 5 get there that would be very impressive.

someones definitely getting jiricek later than he should go now, i dont know how bad that knees injured though. thats a solid list and theres just enough forwards ranked high to make it really interesting. who do you think its the biggest risk?

 

[prototypical4thliner]

I guess the biggest concern is the flyers fetish with centers previously. You could definitely see their line of thinking being they yet don’t have depth at center—if they have a similarly ranked center and defense prospect I think it’s a real possibility they choose forward.

 

[BiggE]

I guess the biggest concern is the flyers fetish with centers previously. You could definitely see their line of thinking being they yet don’t have depth at center—if they have a similarly ranked center and defense prospect I think it’s a real possibility they choose forward.

Yup, that would be classic Flyers. If up to me, assuming they end up with just their own and Florida’s 1st, I’d probably go D with both picks. If you hit, you could nab your future #1 guy and another top 4 player.

They should actually be worse in 24-25. The players will be tuning out Torts, Couts will be another year older, the plugs will be older and slower and the only blue chip young addition will be Cutter. Hopefully they can nab their future 1C in the 25 draft.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

TK would fetch what..2 1sts and a prospect

I would only trade TK for a high first round pick. I wouldn't waste my time with Boston's first or the Rangers or anything, rather keep him at that price. I think it would have to be a young team who wants to make a splash in the draft, or another good team who has someone else's pick who is bad.

Yup, that would be classic Flyers. If up to me, assuming they end up with just their own and Florida’s 1st, I’d probably go D with both picks. If you hit, you could nab your future #1 guy and another top 4 player.

They should actually be worse in 24-25. The players will be tuning out Torts, Couts will be another year older, the plugs will be older and slower and the only blue chip young addition will be Cutter. Hopefully they can nab their future 1C in the 25 draft.

Which would make the lack of a teardown this year inexcusable.

 

[BiggE]

I would only trade TK for a high first round pick. I wouldn't waste my time with Boston's first or the Rangers or anything, rather keep him at that price. I think it would have to be a young team who wants to make a splash in the draft, or another good team who has someone else's pick who is bad.



Which would make the lack of a teardown this year inexcusable.

My hope, key word “hope” is that they deal Walker, Seeler and Hart between now and March. Yeah Hart is good, but I have a sneaking suspicion that he’s not going to age well and I’d prefer to not sign him longterm.

 

[Curufinwe]

Hopefully Hart peaked at the WJC in 2018.

 

[deadhead]

Hart probably isn't moveable until the report comes out, except as a team that wants to pay a "rental" price.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

My hope, key word “hope” is that they deal Walker, Seeler and Hart between now and March. Yeah Hart is good, but I have a sneaking suspicion that he’s not going to age well and I’d prefer to not sign him longterm.

Even if seeler and walker are moved I think that’s a win, maybe not in the value added, but providing pretty good insight as to where the franchise is and who has the hands on the wheels.

If they don’t fall in the standings and they make any move to “buy” it’s confirmation Torts has a very large say in things.

If they stand pat given the above, I feel like brieres voice is being heard.

If they sell off anything considered to be a roster fixture then I’m firmly a briere believer.

As annoying as Hathaway and Deslauriers are, I can see a point where the coach pressured to get “his guys”. The ice time suggests he’s understanding his error on at least one of those guys.

 

[deadhead]

I think Deslauriers served his purpose, look at the young players early in the season and against Calgary, Calgary played one of the dirtiest games this season, but the kids weren't looking around for help, they stood up for themselves. When Gauthier arrives, Attard comes up, Foerster fills out, etc. this team won't need "enforcers."

You still have to play physical in the NHL, especially in the playoffs, not fighting, but not letting teams roll you, winning board battles, hitting on the forecheck, and taking hits in your D-zone to maintain puck possession. It's partially size and partially 'tude.

Now that contract . . . that's another matter, but easily buried by a team with no cap issues (costs $500K a year).

 

[Curufinwe]

Ahhh, that's better.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

It’s been a while since I’ve had to sing the Willy Wonka song in my head.

 

[ponder719]

As annoying as Hathaway and Deslauriers are, I can see a point where the coach pressured to get “his guys”. The ice time suggests he’s understanding his error on at least one of those guys.

At that point, it’s incumbent upon his boss to tell him that his guys are shit, and to get better guys.

 

[kudymen]

That's like getting back your card to get into local public library again