2023-24 Roster Thread #6: A Hall of Famer, a doctor, a policeman and a moose walk into a bar with a Bundy...

[Ghosts Beer]

The biggest problem to me on the PP is the lack of a PP QB, Sanheim just doesn't cut it for me, he's got no wiggle, he's not good at finding the open lane to get the puck on net or hit someone on the stick on a set up, and he likes to blast away with slapshots with poor accuracy.

York seems like he's still learning on the job. He's got better short area agility, but he looks like he's not sure what he's doing - probably adjusting to the speed of NHL PK guys - they don't give you as much time to sit there and survey the ice.

Frost is still learning how to do clean entries, Foerster lacks confidence, and so on.

Eventually, York and Brink will be the key players on the PP, they need a net front presence, and adding Gauthier will help next year.

I said pretty much the same thing last night about the lack of a PP QB being their biggest problem outside of zone entries.

Sanheim just isn't a PP QB at the NHL level. He doesn't have the vision or tight-areas space creation, isn't a natural distributor, and his shot is way too inaccurate.

And York should be a good PP QB, but he isn't yet.

I really think they need to move Walker to the PP.

 

[Mickey the mouse]

I said pretty much the same thing last night about the lack of a PP QB being their biggest problem outside of zone entries.

Sanheim just isn't a PP QB at the NHL level. He doesn't have the vision or tight-areas space creation, isn't a natural distributor, and his shot is way too inaccurate.

And York should be a good PP QB, but he isn't yet.

I really think they need to move Walker to the PP.

York is not a threat to score is his problem.
Absolutely a muffin for a shot

 

[freakydallas13]

The biggest problem to me on the PP is the lack of a PP QB, Sanheim just doesn't cut it for me, he's got no wiggle, he's not good at finding the open lane to get the puck on net or hit someone on the stick on a set up, and he likes to blast away with slapshots with poor accuracy.

York seems like he's still learning on the job. He's got better short area agility, but he looks like he's not sure what he's doing - probably adjusting to the speed of NHL PK guys - they don't give you as much time to sit there and survey the ice.

Frost is still learning how to do clean entries, Foerster lacks confidence, and so on.

Eventually, York and Brink will be the key players on the PP, they need a net front presence, and adding Gauthier will help next year.

Good thing they traded a 2nd to be rid of their PP quarterback.

 

[Appleyard]

 

[renberg]

It doesn’t matter who is on the PP. The schemes are too flawed. Flipping around the puck on the perimeter and setting up below the goal line scores nothing. There’s too much looking for the perfect pass/shot. When the guys are on the PP they look like a bunch of deer in headlights. Penetrate the defense and shot the puck! This isn’t the ice capades where you get style points.

 

[Appleyard]

It doesn’t matter who is on the PP. The schemes are too flawed. Flipping around the puck on the perimeter and setting up below the goal line scores nothing. There’s too much looking for the perfect pass/shot. When the guys are on the PP they look like a bunch of deer in headlights. Penetrate the defense and shot the puck! This isn’t the ice capades where you get style points.

They should have gone to a 3-2 years ago personnel wise. Sanheim and York are far better fits for creeping in to circles than being high... and they have Konecny, Tippett, Farabee, Foerster, Cates, Couturier etc who are all better on PP close to the net.

Frost and Brink are really only current personnel suited to the set-up they have...

I have been saying it for years... it is really obvious at this point.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Underperforming?

Scoring is stochastic, which is why people created advanced metrics, to get a better feel for a player's actual performance.

Did I not just see you argue in the PGT that Frost is underperforming??

 

[Magua]

There is not a single thing I've learned about any player on the PP in the last 3+ years. It's too incompetent in design to evaluate individuals without long NHL track records. Anyone who tries to do so is being dishonest.

But I have prior evaluations. I've never believed York is a high end PP1 player, not even on the NTDP. He's too passive. Atkinson is historically a bad-mediocre PP player, generally in the bumper spot, but he's being jammed into a half wall role. Tippett too, who is equally lost there. Couturier is maybe a 4-5th guy on a top unit (with Giroux, Voracek, Ghost, etc.). Meanwhile, Frost has been net front for the better part of 2 seasons? You have to try to be this inept. You can't glean anything in this environment.

Konecny is the most talented Flyer without question. Even with him, the PP has never been a strength. Although, I fully believe this version of him can play in some role on a good PP1. Farabee has been impossibly awful on the PP, and they basically don't even care if he gets usage. Brink and Foerster I think are/can be positive PP pieces respectively.

Now, Sanheim was an elite CHL PP player, and yet it took him until his D+10 year to get PP time with any priority -- jammed into a unit that was already incompetent for years without him. By late-November, he'll have more PP minutes than any season since 2018-2019. It's a classic case of bad development for the crowd who denies the topic. Do I think he's an elite PP1 player today? No, although I do think he can run a PP2. Do I think he had that potential when he turned pro? Absolutely.

I have no expectation the Flyers should have a top PP, but like their team at large, they have a lot of above average players. There's no reason there aren't 2 fringe competent units. What we're looking at boils down to two things: an organization that has gone out of its way to never prioritize PP development at any level, while hiring two of the worst PP coaches in the league (Therien, Thompson).

 

[deadhead]

Did I not just see you argue in the PGT that Frost is underperforming??

No. I just point out that he and Foerster haven't been scoring, but in a SSS you should look at metrics.

Foerster does have better metrics than Frost, but Frost has only been starting for 4 games after an awful 2 games to begin the season.

The puzzling thing with Frost is how a guy supposedly has top end speed, but in six games his fastest "sprint" is below the league average for forwards (See NHL edge).

 

[Appleyard]

No. I just point out that he and Foerster haven't been scoring, but in a SSS you should look at metrics.

Foerster does have better metrics than Frost, but Frost has only been starting for 4 games after an awful 2 games to begin the season.

The puzzling thing with Frost is how a guy supposedly has top end speed, but in six games his fastest "sprint" is below the league average for forwards (See NHL edge).

Frost was basically the Flyers fastest player (well, at worst 2nd fastest really) in 2021-22 and 2022-23. And one of the fastest ~50 or so forwards in the NHL overall and in how plays the game.

It is not "supposedly".

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/jfreshhockey/viz/NHLSkatingSpeedDashboard-2021-2023/TopSpeedvs_18Bursts

Konecny is the only guy who has had faster top end burst than Frost over that time with Flyers... but he plays slower overall.

 

[Beef Invictus]

No. I just point out that he and Foerster haven't been scoring, but in a SSS you should look at metrics.

Foerster does have better metrics than Frost, but Frost has only been starting for 4 games after an awful 2 games to begin the season.

The puzzling thing with Frost is how a guy supposedly has top end speed, but in six games his fastest "sprint" is below the league average for forwards (See NHL edge).

In a small sample size that's when the metrics are least informative.

 

[Starat327]

Frost was basically the Flyers fastest player (well, at worst 2nd fastest really) in 2021-22 and 2022-23. And one of the fastest ~50 or so forwards in the NHL overall and in how plays the game.

It is not "supposedly".

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/jfreshhockey/viz/NHLSkatingSpeedDashboard-2021-2023/TopSpeedvs_18Bursts

Konecny is the only guy who has had faster top end burst than Frost over that time with Flyers... but he plays slower overall.

Love me a good appleyard-ing. They never get old.

 

[deadhead]

Say, who was the PP QB for Arizona in 2021-22?

Frost was basically the Flyers fastest player (well, at worst 2nd fastest really) in 2021-22 and 2022-23. And one of the fastest ~50 or so forwards in the NHL overall and in how plays the game.

It is not "supposedly".

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/jfreshhockey/viz/NHLSkatingSpeedDashboard-2021-2023/TopSpeedvs_18Bursts

Konecny is the only guy who has had faster top end burst than Frost over that time with Flyers... but he plays slower overall.

Which is why it's so weird that he doesn't have one burst above the league average.

In a small sample size that's when the metrics are least informative.

But they're still far more informative than scoring, which is more variable.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Can someone explain to me the cap moves of Risto to LTIR?

 

[Curufinwe]

They wanted to take an extra dman on the road trip so they had to put him or Ellis on LTIR to go over the cap ceiling.

 

[Curufinwe]

This is a funny SSS stat.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Highest ES GA/60 - Atkinson (5.2), Couturier (5.01), Sanheim (4.03), Cates (3.99)

Lowest ES GA/60 - Deslauriers (2.06), Belpedio (1.58), Staal (1.19), Frost (0.8)

To be fair to Nic D, his ES GA/60 was pretty low last year in a full season. It's just his GF/60 was so incredibly low that he still managed to outscored 30 -18 at ES.

 

[deadhead]

Think they're waiting on Ellis so they can bank cap room, then put him on LTIR when someone wants to bury cap on the Flyers later in the season, increasing their overall flexibility in dealing with the cap.

 

[deadhead]

This is a funny SSS stat.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Highest ES GA/60 - Atkinson (5.2), Couturier (5.01), Sanheim (4.03), Cates (3.99)

Lowest ES GA/60 - Deslauriers (2.06), Belpedio (1.58), Staal (1.19), Frost (0.8)

To be fair to Nic D, his ES GA/60 was pretty low last year in a full season. It's just his GF/60 was so incredibly low that he still managed to outscored 30-18 at ES.

You do realize that's another version of +/-? Just focused on the "-".

What is more interesting is the divergence between xGA and GA and xGF and GA. In a short sample you'd expect a lot of divergence, but there's a few players where this gap is sustained over a large sample - which probably reflects superior finishing for GF > xGF. GA > xGA maybe a tendency toward brain dead mistakes, or conversely, xGA > GA, the instincts to break up good scoring chances.

Of course it could just reflect a long streak of bad (good) goalie luck.

I look at HDCF/CA as the playmaking and "brain dead" indicators, that is, ones the team produce good scoring chances on ice, or conversely, do bad mistakes consistently happen when you're on the ice.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

They wanted to take an extra dman on the road trip so they had to put him or Ellis on LTIR to go over the cap ceiling.

Is there a minimum amount of time on LTIR?

/ When should we expect Risto? Is Ellis on LTIR? I don't see him on there

 

[deadhead]

I don't the exact rules, but they can bank cap room as long as they not over the cap without a player going on LTIR. So they've been waiting to put Ellis on.

 

[Starat327]

Is there a minimum amount of time on LTIR?

/ When should we expect Risto? Is Ellis on LTIR? I don't see him on there

10 games, 24 NHL season days, iirc.

 

[Curufinwe]

You do realize that's another version of +/-? Just focused on the "-".

Are you actually trying to explain how hockey stats work to someone else on this forum? Like, really, you? You've never, ever been able to use statistics to make a coherent point or give an accurate take on a player. Not once. This is why your history is full of laughable predictions like Andrae will be the Flyers #1 dman by the end of 23-24.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

It is endlessly entertaining to read the complaints about how they don’t have transition Forwards when some of us have been saying it was alarmingly de-prioritized for a good 4+ years. Please don’t read this as I told you so. I don’t give a shit about that. It’s the pattern of denying these things are happening in real time and then acting surprised and treating it as a key observation when they can’t dig out of the grave that they openly dug.

Basically, please have an ounce of self awareness. That would be lovely. Thank you for your time.

 

[Curufinwe]

Is there a minimum amount of time on LTIR?

/ When should we expect Risto? Is Ellis on LTIR? I don't see him on there

10 games/24 days.

 

[deadhead]

It is endlessly entertaining to read the complaints about how they don’t have transition Forwards when some of us have been saying it was alarmingly de-prioritized for a good 4+ years. Please don’t read this as I told you so. I don’t give a shit about that. It’s the pattern of denying these things are happening in real time and then acting surprised and treating it as a key observation when they can’t dig out of the grave that they openly dug.

Basically, please have an ounce of self awareness. That would be lovely. Thank you for your time.

Closer to a decade, I'd think.