2023-24 Roster Thread #6: A Hall of Famer, a doctor, a policeman and a moose walk into a bar with a Bundy...

[Rebels57]

Same, I have really enjoyed Walker this season.

FWIW, Charlie O was talking about him on yesterday's PHLY pod.

He said Walker told the media that Torts told him to pinch, be aggressive, take chances, and that has really been good for his game.

Second point Charlie mentioned was a Walker extension - is it a smart move? It's like playing with found money, so moving him at the deadline would be smart. That said, there is a case to be made that he could he a bridge to Bonk, with a 2-3 year deal.

Most likely, if Walker keeps playing well, is that he will not want to re-sign here anyway. As a 29 year old RHD, he would likely receive multiple competing offers on the open market, so that may be Walker's smartest move, if that's what he's after.

f***ing trade him. Jesus. What are we even talking about here? This team is YEARS away from contending and need more draft capital to infuse more young talent.

 

[BillDineen]

The optimistic Authentics don't seem to realize it it the vets leading the team to relative success rather than the development which is supposed to be a priority.

Farabee bounce back after the injury. No credit to the org
Brink surprising them. No credit to the org

Sanheim, who would have been traded. No credit to the org
Couturier and Atkinson back to form. Lucky
Walker, acquired to get a pick helping the Kings with cap. No credit to the org

Frost sat for no reason. Org's fault
Cates regressing. Org magically sees more offense and appear to be dead wrong again.
Tippett coming on now back with Frost after a slow start. No credit to org
York up and down. No credit to the org
Z will sit with Staal and Risto back

PP still a joke.

What have they done well at all?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Same, I have really enjoyed Walker this season.

FWIW, Charlie O was talking about him on yesterday's PHLY pod.

He said Walker told the media that Torts told him to pinch, be aggressive, take chances, and that has really been good for his game.

Second point Charlie mentioned was a Walker extension - is it a smart move? It's like playing with found money, so moving him at the deadline would be smart. That said, there is a case to be made that he could he a bridge to Bonk, with a 2-3 year deal.

Most likely, if Walker keeps playing well, is that he will not want to re-sign here anyway. As a 29 year old RHD, he would likely receive multiple competing offers on the open market, so that may be Walker's smartest move, if that's what he's after.

I’d argue that Walker has found a home here & would be amenable to an extension.

He’s playing great hockey with a significant role on a team in need of a top 4 RHD. And the team is on the upswing.

Why leave if you get a fair extension?

 

[VladDrag]

I think they should extend Sean Walker, barring an offer they can’t refuse.

how far away do you think this team is from being a contender?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

So the season is super early, but I wanted to touch on Sean Walker. This dude is performing so well in the early season. 88th percentile in xGAR, 97th percentile in GAR (both per EH). They are a significantly better offensive team and defensive team when he’s on the ice.

From my eye, he’s been very aggressive leading to lots of controlled entries and controlled exits. His in-zone coverage has been adequate, but he really is the modern day two-way defenseman. Mobile, good first-pass, can skate. I have loved watching him player.

The interesting part is what are the going to do with him? He’s 29, so I can’t see him being part of the long term plans. The smart thing to do would be to continue to play him in the advantageous situations, and move him at the TDL. I am sure that was their original plan, but know we know their objectives are to win as many games as possible. If that’s their actual objective it would be hard to trade maybe your best defenseman so far this season…Yes Sanheim has been good in a tougher role, but Walker has been better albeit in a slightly reduced role.

He’s been flat out bad by sG.

I don’t have the interest to dig into this enough to come to a conclusion, but my area of concern when xGAR is much higher than other metrics is always the same. It assumes Defensemen meaningfully impact shooting percentages and we know that’s mostly false. My guess is that the xGAR will drop and the sG will come up and he’ll normalize to his usual solid but unspectacular area over the course of the year.

I know you understand that I’m speaking to the metrics and not the player. Nor am I trying to tell anyone what to think or what they are seeing. But I want to make that clear for anyone less familiar with them than you are.

 

[flyersnorth]

I’d argue that Walker has found a home here & would be amenable to an extension.

He’s playing great hockey with a significant role on a team in need of a top 4 RHD. And the team is on the upswing.

Why leave if you get a fair extension?

That's certainly possible - what kind of extension would be fair, and also smart for the Flyers?

If he wants 4+ years, that doesn't make sense for the Flyers. If they can get him around 2-3, that would be great. Question is whether he would be willing to leave money on the table in what is likely his one and only chance at a decent long-term contract.

Then you're also stuck with Ristolainen through 2027.

It will be interesting.

 

[Audible Velvet]

Had anyone here known what Walker was or what to expect? He really has been a surprise in a positive way.
And let’s face it, their track record has been lackluster bringing in vets.

 

[VladDrag]

He’s been flat out bad by sG.

I don’t have the interest to dig into this enough to come to a conclusion, but my area of concern when xGAR is much higher than other metrics is always the same. It assumes Defensemen meaningfully impact shooting percentages and we know that’s mostly false. My guess is that the xGAR will drop and the sG will come up and he’ll normalize to his usual solid but unspectacular area over the course of the year.

I know you understand that I’m speaking to the metrics and not the player. Nor am I trying to tell anyone what to think or what they are seeing. But I want to make that clear for anyone less familiar with them than you are.

Something is wrong with the sG model right now. I'm not sure if it's pulling old or incorrect data, or certain figures are not being updated as quickly. Bottom line it's not projecting correctly...But it's not just Walker right now. It's everyone. Walker is projecting as a top-pairing player in the figure above. There's some weird stuff going on right now with the sG.

I should also say that, I don't know enough about Magnus, either. The write up is extensive, which is great, but I just haven't fully digested it as of yet. I've skimmed it here and there, but I don't fully understand it just yet.

At EH, Walker has great RAPM stats as well. I do recognize that RAPM is kinda weird in small sample sizes as well, particularly for defenseman.

Bottom line, I think you're right that it will normalize, and that's based on his historic performances. But you never know.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

how far away do you think this team is from being a contender?

I think they’re a playoff team next year (24/25).

 

[JojoTheWhale]

View attachment 769478

Something is wrong with the sG model right now. I'm not sure if it's pulling old or incorrect data, or certain figures are not being updated as quickly. Bottom line it's not projecting correctly...But it's not just Walker right now. It's everyone. Walker is projecting as a top-pairing player in the figure above. There's some weird stuff going on right now with the sG.

I should also say that, I don't know enough about Magnus, either. The write up is extensive, which is great, but I just haven't fully digested it as of yet. I've skimmed it here and there, but I don't fully understand it just yet.

At EH, Walker has great RAPM stats as well. I do recognize that RAPM is kinda weird in small sample sizes as well, particularly for defenseman.

Bottom line, I think you're right that it will normalize, and that's based on his historic performances. But you never know.

View attachment 769480

My guess is that this is a labeling issue more than a modeling one and the career page is supposed to be a wider angle.

When you go into the breakdowns, sG thinks his biggest negatives are Penalties, both taking them and not drawing them. That makes me want to dig into just how repeatable Drawing Penalties can be for Defensemen. I guess now I look at Adam Fox for the millionth time.

 

[BiggE]

Extending Walker to a long term, massively overpaid deal would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.

I expect the extension to be announced before the all star break. Be a f***ing Flyer

 

[Tripod]

The irony of this: Only on this board would people allege a player who was waived & cleared before the season at age 27, & has spent 11 games in the AHL & only 3 as an NHL call-up, is superior to a player the same team traded for a 1st, 2nd, & 3rd at the trade deadline & who signed a $2.3M contract as a UFA.

Ghost was waived, then the same team traded a 1st+2nd +Hagg for Risto then signed him for 5.1 million vontract as an upcoming UFA.

So it's IMPOSSIBLE for Ghost to be better than Risto. Impossible. The math check s out.

 

[VladDrag]

I think they’re a playoff team next year (24/25).

I'm not trying to be divisive here, but the question isn't when do you believe they'll be a playoff team. I agree with you that this team can be a playoff team next year. The question is, how far away do you think this team is from being a contender?

To me, there's a difference between playoff team and a legit contender. I am not content with being 1st round/2nd round playoff fodder for the dominant teams. I want this team to have a legit window for winning a championship. I don't think this team has that right now, nor do they have that in the future. If you believe they will have a legit window in the future, I'm genuinely curious as to why you believe that.

 

[pooch]

Any speculation as to what his value is at the deadline?

 

[mize370]

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I'm not trying to be divisive here, but the question isn't when do you believe they'll be a playoff team. I agree with you that this team can be a playoff team next year. The question is, how far away do you think this team is from being a contender?

To me, there's a difference between playoff team and a legit contender. I am not content with being 1st round/2nd round playoff fodder for the dominant teams. I want this team to have a legit window for winning a championship. I don't think this team has that right now, nor do they have that in the future. If you believe they will have a legit window in the future, I'm genuinely curious as to why you believe that.

I don’t think you need to trade away a very effective top 4 RHD in Walker, a position very hard to find in the league & one the Flyers have failed to sufficiently fill since Niskanen retired, just because you merely expect to be a playoff team next season instead of one of the top teams in the league.

Why take a step back for a 2nd rd pick that is likely to amount to nothing?

Even a late 1st is unlikely to become a player as useful as Walker is right now, though I think you should at least consider offers if they include a 1st.

Walker is a good player at a position of need & a position that’s hard to acquire. And you can probably extend him for a reasonable contract.

It would be good for this franchise to continue progressing & to make the playoffs next season, & Walker helps that. When Michkov arrives in 2026, the Flyers could be a real threat, & Walker should still have tread on his tires.

 

[wankstifier]

Seems like this is a bubble team now with healthy forwards, Hart, and Sanheim. I don't think you can count on Couturier to remain healthy, though. If you believe in this team, you're betting on him being an important piece.

 

[Curufinwe]

Laughton playing RW while Foerster and Tippet both play LW is so dumb.

 

[Audible Velvet]

Amen

 

[tnfrs]

imo theres a small window we can win when michkov comes and we can take advantage of his ELC it gives us some wiggle room with the cap and maybe we can add a low key free agent signing whereever we need, whether its D or F, as long as we arent trading futures for players we just need to keep adding a piece here and a piece there. I'd rather have the team running at full steam when Michkov gets here, when teams are winning its just a better environment for prospects to grow in. Maybe he doesnt light it up immediately, and if we're losing games playing a bunch of nobodies its not gonna help him develop into a stud. Having a solid core for cutter and michkov and bonk and whoever else we draft in the next few years will be infinitely better than tanking imo. if Michkov hits his ceiling he'll be one of the top 10 players in the league for the next 10+ years. If we can be a playoff team when he arrives, he'll spend his whole career with that fire under his ass.

 

[BernieParent]

Laughton playing RW while Foerster and Tippet both play LW is so dumb.

Brink is the new Frost.

 

[wankstifier]

Brink is the new Frost.

Whipping boy roulette

 

[dragonoffrost]

Can't sit any of the plugs for the kids...

ROLES!!!!!!

 

[renberg]

There are a bunch of older players that are playing well right now that should be moved.

Seeler, Atkinson, Walker, to a lesser extent Hathaway.

All of these guys and some others should be available for trade. Whether or not they get moved would depend on what is offered for them. My sense is that what will get in the way of any deal that Briere makes is that he wants either draft choices or quality you talent in return. I'd guess that he's been approached already on some players but has been low balled and turned down the deal.

 

[Curufinwe]

Is Bobby Bench on the brink of a demotion to the AHL?