2023-24 Roster Thread #5: Where the boos aren't limited to Halloween

[JojoTheWhale]

But if you're the GM you have to make those projections - can I trust a kid to step in if I trade a veteran for assets?

You do have to make those decisions at some point. You do not have to make them now. This is what I mean when I say they have no humility. It's kid goes boom or get a vet. No grey area. No willingness to let things play out while they have the time. If they're trying to contend, of course you sign a Hathaway.

Finding out which guys can develop further in the NHL is a perfectly reasonable use case. You can just napkin math it to having a quantity of lottery tickets and letting your decisions come to you naturally. This is why lineup spots matter so much right now. Some of them are going to succeed and some are going to fail. That's ok.

 

[ponder719]

Therein lies the horror.

The first time I read through your post, I read "Therien lies the horror," which... doesn't feel that far off either, somehow.

 

[deadhead]

For those who think this year's start is just like last year
2022, first 6 games: xGF 40.41% (31)
2023, first 6 games, xGF 54.11% (6)

Now I doubt they sustain this level of play, but unlike last season, it's isn't based on smoke and mirrors.
Torts has them playing much better, with talent that on paper is pretty similar.

 

[Tripod]

Move Frost + Attard(they can use an extra depth D) for Pinto and Kubalik.

Pinto becomes 3rd line C making Torts happy as a pig.

Then trade Laughton for hopefully a 1st+ and Kubalik replaces him at LW

Foerster goes to LV to play big minutes

Gauthier replaces Kubalik at LW next year, Foerster replaces Atkinson

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Talent that's pretty similar on paper.

Lost: Provorov, DeAngelo, Braun, Allison, Hayes, JVR, Laczynski, MacEwen, Jackson Cates

In Limbo: Zamula, Frost

Gained: Sean bleeping Couturier, York, Walker, Tippett (remember, he's amazing!), Brink, Foerster, Poehling, Hathaway, Staal

 

[deadhead]

First six games last year, by TOI:

Hayes, Allison, Farabee, TK, Laughton, JVR, Frost, Cates, MacEwen, Laczynski, Deslauriers, J Cates/Sedlak
Provorov, TDA, Sanheim, Zamula, Seeler, Braun

 

[JojoTheWhale]

6. Morgan Frost is a little different. Philadelphia just re-signed him, have invested a lot of time in him, and he was fourth in team scoring last season. But if he doesn’t play — just two appearances so far — something will have to give.

Source: 32 Thoughts: NHL teams vote to decentralize the draft

 

[Tripod]

First six games last year, by TOI:

Hayes, Allison, Farabee, TK, Laughton, JVR, Frost, Cates, MacEwen, Laczynski, Deslauriers, J Cates/Sedlak
Provorov, TDA, Sanheim, Zamula, Seeler, Braun

You just proved his point. Last years team....in those 6 games....is much worse

 

[BernieParent]

Pronger is an outlier. Since 1967 they have successfully traded for a Howe/Pronger level dman... twice. That's it. It's not a viable model. It's not a thing that reliably happens or can be counted upon.

To trade for a 1D, the Flyers would likely have to do something antithetical to their FO objectives: not spend to the cap limit. If they have a handful of desirable prospects, 1st round picks and a healthy bit of cap room, they might be able to take care of another team's problem.

 

[Magua]

No other team in the league hires their coach before their President and GM. And not only before but contingent on it. Tortorella can do whatever he wants with Frost -- and the next player and the next -- because no one will tell him otherwise. No coach benches one of their top players, who he has previously called a toilet seat and disparages at every step, for 2 meh games to start a season, unless he is putting his foot down and showing management it's subservient to him. Briere is the biggest Frost fan in the organization? Challenge accepted.

 

[deadhead]

Source: 32 Thoughts: NHL teams vote to decentralize the draft

4. Another factor however, is that at five-on-five, Edmonton is second-worst at slot shots allowed, fourth-worst at rebound chances and sixth-worst at forecheck chances. I don’t like to panic early and there’s lots of evaluation on what all of this means. But one of the questions becomes if you think it fits what you have.

Guess there's more to hockey than offensive skill?

18. Two early trends: after seven consecutive declining seasons of save percentages (one was flat), this year’s number is up slightly — from .904 to .905 (courtesy Hockey Reference). You know what else is up? Fighting. It’s been trending that way the past few years, 0.354 per game in 2018-19 to .509 in 2022-23. But there’s a big jump so far: 0.815. The days of the enforcer are over, so it seems counter-intuitive. Maybe it illustrates the pressure and intensity the moment the puck drops.

Hmm. Maybe Deslauriers has a market?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

4. Another factor however, is that at five-on-five, Edmonton is second-worst at slot shots allowed, fourth-worst at rebound chances and sixth-worst at forecheck chances. I don’t like to panic early and there’s lots of evaluation on what all of this means. But one of the questions becomes if you think it fits what you have.

Guess there's more to hockey than offensive skill?

18. Two early trends: after seven consecutive declining seasons of save percentages (one was flat), this year’s number is up slightly — from .904 to .905 (courtesy Hockey Reference). You know what else is up? Fighting. It’s been trending that way the past few years, 0.354 per game in 2018-19 to .509 in 2022-23. But there’s a big jump so far: 0.815. The days of the enforcer are over, so it seems counter-intuitive. Maybe it illustrates the pressure and intensity the moment the puck drops.

Hmm. Maybe Deslauriers has a market?

Please stop making things up. Please.

 

[Beef Invictus]

4. Another factor however, is that at five-on-five, Edmonton is second-worst at slot shots allowed, fourth-worst at rebound chances and sixth-worst at forecheck chances. I don’t like to panic early and there’s lots of evaluation on what all of this means. But one of the questions becomes if you think it fits what you have.

Guess there's more to hockey than offensive skill?

18. Two early trends: after seven consecutive declining seasons of save percentages (one was flat), this year’s number is up slightly — from .904 to .905 (courtesy Hockey Reference). You know what else is up? Fighting. It’s been trending that way the past few years, 0.354 per game in 2018-19 to .509 in 2022-23. But there’s a big jump so far: 0.815. The days of the enforcer are over, so it seems counter-intuitive. Maybe it illustrates the pressure and intensity the moment the puck drops.

Hmm. Maybe Deslauriers has a market?

Edmonton has a roster completely lacking in depth. Their offensive talent isn't the problem.

Also, there's more to hockey than defense. Which is why Tortorella is a 20 year failure.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Please stop making things up. Please.

He can't. Lying is the only possible way to defend the team. Just fabricate nonsense to disparage better teams to pretend they aren't better while making up more nonsense to explain why the constant failure here is somehow not failure and is also somehow the only path they had.

 

[deadhead]

You just proved his point. Last years team....in those 6 games....is much worse

But, but, he PLAYED THE KIDS!

Gave Allison, Laczynski, Frost, Tippett, Cates, MacEwen, Zamula a chance to win jobs.
This year he started Brink, Foerster, Zamula and Andrae.
Playing a couple RWs at LW to see who can handle it.

I don't think they think they have a shot at the playoffs, right now they're shuffling players around, at some point they'll decide the lines, pairs and send down/trade players who don't fit.

Don't think Torts has any issue with Frost, other than his piss poor start (xGF 25.31% his first two games) but the team is playing well, and more importantly, Brink and Foerster were playing well, while he needs to figure out which RW can handle LW on a regular basis. So Frost is the odd man out in the short-run. Eventually Laughton will move back to LW (or be traded, maybe in a series of trades to garner a LW, some assets and maybe clear a RW jam) and Frost will be back in the lineup.

 

[deadhead]

Edmonton has a roster completely lacking in depth. Their offensive talent isn't the problem.

Also, there's more to hockey than defense. Which is why Tortorella is a 20 year failure.

Edmonton's roster:
Draitsail (#3), McJesus (#1), RNH (#1), Hyman, Kane, McLeod, C Brown, Janmark, Foegele, Holloway (#14), Ryan, Erne
Nurse (#7), Bouchard (#10), Ceci, Ekholm, Kulak, Desharnais, Broberg (#8)

Doesn't look like a thin roster to me, other than the 11th and 12th forwards.
Mixture of high draft picks and solid veterans.

Campbell and Skinner are experienced goaltenders.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[JojoTheWhale]

(Don't use xGF% as any more than a curiosity in tiny samples. I'm just shitposting because that's the only way we're saving this thread.)

I made a simulation of Tippett's TOI the next 4 games despite being the only one with worse xGF% in those first 2:

 

[Beef Invictus]

Edmonton's roster:
Draitsail (#3), McJesus (#1), RNH (#1), Hyman, Kane, McLeod, C Brown, Janmark, Foegele, Holloway (#14), Ryan, Erne
Nurse (#7), Bouchard (#10), Ceci, Ekholm, Kulak, Desharnais, Broberg (#8)

Doesn't look like a thin roster to me, other than the 11th and 12th forwards.
Mixture of high draft picks and solid veterans.

Campbell and Skinner are experienced goaltenders.

Is this like the time you looked at Tortorellas career and determined, contrary to all information available, that he is an offensive guru everyone wants to play for? The opposite of what is true?

 

[Magua]

 

[freakydallas13]

Edmonton's roster:
Draitsail (#3), McJesus (#1), RNH (#1), Hyman, Kane, McLeod, C Brown, Janmark, Foegele, Holloway (#14), Ryan, Erne
Nurse (#7), Bouchard (#10), Ceci, Ekholm, Kulak, Desharnais, Broberg (#8)

Doesn't look like a thin roster to me, other than the 11th and 12th forwards.
Mixture of high draft picks and solid veterans.

Campbell and Skinner are experienced goaltenders.

Are you saying Edmonton has built a good roster through tanking?

 

[Tripod]

But, but, he PLAYED THE KIDS!

Gave Allison, Laczynski, Frost, Tippett, Cates, MacEwen, Zamula a chance to win jobs.
This year he started Brink, Foerster, Zamula and Andrae.
Playing a couple RWs at LW to see who can handle it.

I don't think they think they have a shot at the playoffs, right now they're shuffling players around, at some point they'll decide the lines, pairs and send down/trade players who don't fit.

Don't think Torts has any issue with Frost, other than his piss poor start (xGF 25.31% his first two games) but the team is playing well, and more importantly, Brink and Foerster were playing well, while he needs to figure out which RW can handle LW on a regular basis. So Frost is the odd man out in the short-run. Eventually Laughton will move back to LW (or be traded, maybe in a series of trades to garner a LW, some assets and maybe clear a RW jam) and Frost will be back in the lineup.

And remind me again, what was Tippett's xGF% after 2 games?

 

[CerpinTaxt]

Edmonton has a roster completely lacking in depth. Their offensive talent isn't the problem.

Also, there's more to hockey than defense. Which is why Tortorella is a 20 year failure.

John is a more than 20 year failure. I've coached 0 NHL hockey games and John only has 1 more cup than I do

 

[tymed]

Is Hart still just as bad at handling the puck as hes always been, or worse?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Please stop making things up. Please.