2023-24 Roster Thread 1: Entering the Starting Gate

[Curufinwe]

You never get tired of counting your chickens before they hatch. So far the Flyers have one established NHL player from four years of Flahr drafts. And even that player wasn't even in the league for the whole season.

Hextall drafted Sanheim, NAK, Lindblom, Provroov, Konency, Hart, Allison, Frost, Cates, Farabee and Ersson.

 

[chadateit]

Flahr’s drafting is the same line of logic as Fletcher’s one mistake.

His picks aren’t as good as you’re making them out to be, and you’re not even defining what makes up a successful pick. His methods of drafting are archetype influenced too. Only one of them is even in the NHL, before we go claiming success, and he looks like the safe cromulent 2nd pair guy he was projected to be. To speak nothing of the opportunity cost with that one.

They’ve had 6 top 2 round picks in 4 years. That part needs to be emphasized.

I think I like York more than you (or a lot of other people here) do, but was about to post more or less the exact same thing. 1. Way too early to say how they did. You're counting a lot of unhatched chickens. 2. There's a lot of argument to be made that their philosophy is to try to hit singles or doubles instead of homeruns - hardly a way to build a championship caliber team, especially given 3. They didn't make nearly enough picks. They clearly haven't valued draft picks as much as any team lacking high end talent needs to.

 

[deadhead]

You got a problem with Foerster at #23? I think he's a lock to start next year.
The others we can only judge by their post-draft performances right now:

Gauthier - best player on a mediocre BC team as a freshman, playing for team USA
Brink - lead NCAA in scoring at 20 years old
Andrae - 1st pair D-man in the SHL at 20, tied with Wallinder for leading D scorer U22 in the SHL (next player had 10 less points).
Kolosov - best U22 goalie in the KHL

Other picks:

Attard #72
Wisdom #94
Desnoyers #135 (lead Phantoms with 23 goals at 20 years old).
Zanetti D #110, solid PO campaign in OHL
Samson D #174, 60 points in 60g, 5 points in 10 PO games at 19 years old
Kaplan #69 solid freshman season at BU
Gendron #220, 55 goals in 63g, then 14g in 13g in the Q PO - pretty good D+1 season
Avon UDFA, solid PO campaign in OHL, bottom six skills

 

[Beef Invictus]

Flahr’s drafting is the same line of logic as Fletcher’s one mistake.

His picks aren’t as good as you’re making them out to be (going back to Minnesota), and you’re not even defining what makes up a successful pick. His methods of drafting are heavily archetype/fit influenced too, and frankly, I’ve never read one insightful comment from him. Only one of these picks is even in the NHL, before we go claiming success, and he looks like the safe cromulent 2nd pair guy he was projected to be. To speak nothing of the opportunity cost with that one. Is taking the highest floor players, and them reaching that floor, enough?

They’ve had 6 top 2 round picks in 4 years. It’s a Fletcher staple. That part needs to be emphasized, not buried. Flahr wasn’t the head of scouting for Fletcher’s managerial career. He was the AGM. He’s the one who determined the 2020 draft was bad and Ristolainen preferable. He’s still the AGM.

He's also the VP!

 

[Beef Invictus]

I have no problem with Flahr running the draft, it's too early to know, but so far the last four years look better (on a per draft pick basis) than Hextall's five years in terms of drafting. Sure you can always improve, but it's not a disaster area. One whiff out of (6) 1st and 2nd rd picks.

Pro scouting on the other hand, when you look at Colorado trading for RFAs, Zito finding talent off the waiver wire and low level trades, and Carolina signing a bunch of useful veterans on low cost deals - over the last decade, when have the Flyers executed any of these strategies successfully? After 3 GMs, you start to think NHL talent evaluation may be the problem.

Yes we know that you can't find a single problem with anything the Flyers do.

 

[deadhead]

I think I like York more than you (or a lot of other people here) do, but was about to post more or less the exact same thing. 1. Way too early to say how they did. You're counting a lot of unhatched chickens. 2. There's a lot of argument to be made that their philosophy is to try to hit singles or doubles instead of homeruns - hardly a way to build a championship caliber team, especially given 3. They didn't make nearly enough picks. They clearly haven't valued draft picks as much as any team lacking high end talent needs to.

That is not a scouting evaluation issue.

Of course you can't know for 3-4 more years, you can see how prospects perform in the D+1, D+2, compare to say Rubtsov, JOB, etc.
Performing doesn't guarantee success, not performing in those two seasons is a serious red flag.

I'm not sure if they had a lot of opportunity to hit HRs, they were left with the choice Gauthier v Jiricek not Cooley.

Boldy v York and Brink? Check back in 3 years.
Note Boldy is the full sized forward you'd expect them to take if they were obsessed with size.
York isn't impressive physically, but he's already our best D-man as a 21-22 year old rookie. May not be a #1, but making a good case for a #2.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Since he claims to ignore me, anyone want to point out that it is a scouting evaluation issue? What with their bad scouting evaluation of a draft driving them to burn a shitload of picks in bad trades.

 

[chadateit]

That is not a scouting evaluation issue.

Of course you can't know for 3-4 more years, you can see how prospects perform in the D+1, D+2, compare to say Rubtsov, JOB, etc.
Performing doesn't guarantee success, not performing in those two seasons is a serious red flag.

I'm not sure if they had a lot of opportunity to hit HRs, they were left with the choice Gauthier v Jiricek not Cooley.

Boldy v York and Brink? Check back in 3 years.
Note Boldy is the full sized forward you'd expect them to take if they were obsessed with size.
York isn't impressive physically, but he's already our best D-man as a 21-22 year old rookie. May not be a #1, but making a good case for a #2.

You make your own counterpoint to your argument. Check back in 3 years. It's still very much TBD. Right now there are exactly 1 draft picks by fletcher and Flahr that are on the team.

 

[deadhead]

You make your own counterpoint to your argument. Check back in 3 years. It's still very much TBD. Right now there are exactly 1 draft picks by fletcher and Flahr that are on the team.

That's not a counterpoint. You can only go with the information you have on most prospects, which is their performance in the years after they were drafted.
So looking at those years, Flahr's picks (on a value basis) seemed to have generally outperformed Hextall's picks.
As I pointed out, you won't know for another 3-4 years

 

[chadateit]

That's not a counterpoint. You can only go with the information you have on most prospects, which is their performance in the years after they were drafted.
So looking at those years, Flahr's picks (on a value basis) seemed to have generally outperformed Hextall's picks.
As I pointed out, you won't now for another 3-4 years

No. Your logic is flawed. D-1 & D-2 performance outside of the NHL does not hold the same weight as proven performance in an NHL role. The jury is still out on the recent picks.

 

[deadhead]

No. Your logic is flawed. D-1 & D-2 performance outside of the NHL does not hold the same weight as proven performance in an NHL role. The jury is still out on the recent picks.

Nothing flawed about my logic. If you're trying to determine whether the Flyer drafting is better or worse under Flahr, you can only compare apples to apples - you can't compare what a player drafted in 2015 has done relative to a player drafted in 2020.

Obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty evaluating the past four drafts, Frost drafted in 2017 didn't become a full-time starter until 2022 and so on.

There's also development strategy, Gauthier could probably start in the Flyer top 6 next season as a LW, he was encouraged to go back to college to get more experience at center (and b/c the team isn't trying to win now) - that makes him look like a slow developer.

 

[Cody Webster]

Nothing flawed about my logic. If you're trying to determine whether the Flyer drafting is better or worse under Flahr, you can only compare apples to apples - you can't compare what a player drafted in 2015 has done relative to a player drafted in 2020.

Obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty evaluating the past four drafts, Frost drafted in 2017 didn't become a full-time starter until 2022 and so on.

There's also development strategy, Gauthier could probably start in the Flyer top 6 next season as a LW, he was encouraged to go back to college to get more experience at center (and b/c the team isn't trying to win now) - that makes him look like a slow developer.

There's never anything flawed about anything you say. Surprised the Flyers didn't reach out and interview you.

 

[deadhead]

There's never anything flawed about anything you say. Surprised the Flyers didn't reach out and interview you.

So am I.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

View attachment 707285

The spirit of Beast Rabban?

unleash your inner Dinosaur...

 

[Magua]

You got a problem with Foerster at #23? I think he's a lock to start next year.

Absolutely not. I didn't watch many prospects that year, but I enjoyed his game in his D+1 so much that I was totally willing to forget his D+2.

I HATE how this team describes him. I've said this for years. His IQ, passing, poise are his best traits. The shot is excellent, but this team never talks about anything else. From a February article in the Athletic:

I think (he was) a little bit unlucky. I think also, if you look back in the numbers when Tyson gets away from it … one game I was at, he had over 20 shot attempts. And he had one shot on net. He was trying to pick like the top two inches of the friggin’ net every time, and missing nine times out of 10.

Eventually, we talked to him (and said), “With the way you shoot the puck, just hit the net.” There’s going to be rebounds, there’s going to be other things. Obviously, he’s driven to score, he measures himself on goal scoring. He’s rounded out his game, he’s doing a lot of those little things. But for his production, you have to hit the net. Even if you have to take a little bit off it to just to get it net sometimes, it’s better than just wiring it off the glass and around.

He always had an accurate shot. Obviously, he’s got the big one-timer, but I think part of it just is maturity, as far as doing some of those things. The points will come.

But at the same time, during that slump, I thought he really improved his wall play, as far as defensive zone, even offensive zone possession time. I think he’s been really good. He even showed that this summer, on that line was on at the world juniors, I thought they were exceptional in the offensive zone. He’s always probably going to be a bit of a streaky scorer. But the way he shoots the puck, and he’s got a swagger, he’s got that confidence. And he’s getting more and more confident at that level every game, and hopefully he has a big second half.

That's the whole Flahr-Foerster talk in a prospect write-up. It's always the same. They target the same shooting archetypes, but they lucked out in a player who's more than that. So, yes, I find him less than insightful and nuanced as a talent evaluator.

 

[deadhead]

What makes you think they lucked out on Foerster? Yes, his shot stands out, he has good size, decent skater, good vision, good passer, but if he didn't have a plus shot his upside would be middle six, all around forward who scores 10-15 dirty goals - his shot gives him a chance to be a 20+ goal scorer who also does the little things that add value.

I mean all Caufield has is shooting, he's one of the worst forwards at exits/entries, he's a mediocre playmaker, and is never going to be mentioned in the same breath as the Selke. But score 30+ goals and all is forgiven!

Shooting matters, b/c the Flyers have lacked good shooters for a while. TK is more of a scorer (who should shoot more), Tippett has a good shot mechanically, but he lacks accuracy and doesn't have a feel for setting up goaltenders.

 

[Magua]

What makes you think they lucked out on Foerster?

How they describe him at every turn, along with the other shooting archetypes they picked who are not as well-rounded and might not (or will not) reach expectations. Broken clocks, man.

Shooting is THE least important trait to look for in a prospect because it is THE hardest trait to project. It's a quality I'd mention in the postscript. The road to acquiring snipers in the draft is littered with busts because goaltending and chance creation changes dramatically in the NHL.

 

[deadhead]

I disagree. Good shooters are rare. Average shooters are common.

What makes a good shooter is a combination of body control (good mechanics), eye to hand coordination (accuracy) and strong wrists (Dick Allen would have had a killer shot if he played hockey). A player who can combine a quick release, accuracy and velocity on his wrist shot is rare and valuable b/c scoring goals is hard, even with elevated scoring the last few years. Good shooters not only score goals but they can handcuff goalies and lead to dangerous rebounds.

Scorers are different, Farabee has an average shot but a real feel for beating goalies from the dirty areas - he just needs to get stronger b/c he gets bounced around. Some players just have a nose for the puck and the net.

 

[Beef Invictus]

They got Foerster on accident while chasing something else.

 

[BiggE]

He's also the VP!

VP?
Vacuous Pig?

 

[chadateit]

I disagree. Good shooters are rare. Average shooters are common.

What makes a good shooter is a combination of body control (good mechanics), eye to hand coordination (accuracy) and strong wrists (Dick Allen would have had a killer shot if he played hockey). A player who can combine a quick release, accuracy and velocity on his wrist shot is rare and valuable b/c scoring goals is hard, even with elevated scoring the last few years. Good shooters not only score goals but they can handcuff goalies and lead to dangerous rebounds.

Scorers are different, Farabee has an average shot but a real feel for beating goalies from the dirty areas - he just needs to get stronger b/c he gets bounced around. Some players just have a nose for the puck and the net.

IMHO, the most important trait in most good goal scorers these days has more to do with deception, surprise, and creativity in getting the shot off, especially in tight spaces and under checking/contact. Both in terms of timing and where the release is coming from. It's not a velocity or even pinpoint accuracy thing so much as the ability to release it before the goalie can get a proper read and set up.

This to me, is one of the biggest differences in offense that I've seen in hockey over even the past 5 to 10 years.

 

[Tripod]

A reminder to not believe lies that Hextall picks were all bums in their first few years of being drafted. These are all his moves and of course things looked quite different back then when fired.

Year 1&2
Traded Hartnell for Umberger+4th(Wagner flipped for Vorobyev+Salintri…who was not signed)
Traded McGinn for a 3rd(Sandstrom)…McGinn waived by SJ months later
Signed MDZ
Signed Schultz
Signed White
Signed Bellemare
Signed VDV
Traded Coburn for 1st, 3rd(Tomek) + Gudas=Got Konecky by moving up
Traded Timonen for 2 2nd rounders=fantastic value, used 1 pick to move up for Konecny, the other for Allison
Signed Danick Martel for free=QMJHL 2nd leading scorer...worth a shot…later lost to waivers
Traded Rinaldo for 3rd(Ustimenko) Rinaldo later waived
Traded Grossmann + Pronger for Gagner + 4th(traded to NYI for 4th in 2017…then used in package for Ratcliffe)
Signed Medvedev=a good KHL player for free…didn't work out
Signed Neuvirth for free=shored up the backup G situation for the next 2 years then resigned for 2 more years. Then always hurt.
Fired Berube
Hired Hakstol
Signed Marti
Signed Bardreau
Signed undrafted 6'5 RHD Philip Myers for free…QMJHL All Star 2016, WJC as well
Traded Vinny and LSchenn for Weal + 3rd(Twarynski)
Signed top College FA G Lyon for free
Added Goalie Coach Brady Robinson
Added AHL coach Scott Gordon
Oversaw 2 drafts and had these 7 guys at the WJC this year(2015/16):
Provorov: named CHL Dman of the year…now in NHL
Sanheim: highest PPG in the WHL in 20 years for a Dman, Now in NHL
Konecny: great draft+1 season…now in NHL
Lindblom: highest scoring U20 in SHL, SHL Forward of the year, now in NHL
Fazleev: over PPG in WHL, now in AHL
Sandstrom: made WJC multiple times, Named top Goalie at WJC…still in SHL
Kase: Over PPG in MHL...made WJC multiple times…now in AHL
Plus drafted:
Aube Kubel: over PPG in QMJHL…now in AHL…top ES scorer
Friedman: WCHA All Star Dman…now in AHL
Tomek: injured all season, made WJC…now in USHL
Dove McFalls: poor pick...not signed
Vorobyov: Was #1C at WJC for Russia….now in AHL
Marody:traded for a 3rd in 2019
Fedotov: long term G prospect…in VHL
Pettersson: played in AHL, then back to SHL
Year 3
Drafted in 2016:
Rubstov: made WJC….now in AHL
Laberge: CHL All Star Game MVP…not playing to expectations…AHL?
Hart: 2 time CHL goalie of the Year….WJC goalie and gold winner…AHL
Allison: USHL Playoff MVP, great start to season, got hurt…college again
Twarynski: great season…AHL
Bunnaman: Captain Dave Poulin's obsession
Hogberg: SHL regular, WJC player
Laczynski: Made WJC, had great season…college again
Salinitri: not signed
Bernhardt: Made WJC, SHL regular
Signed Weise
Signed Gordo…waived
Added Huffman to handle the D in AHL
Signed AHL players in Brennan, O'Neill, and Miele
Signed Lyubimov…did not work out
Traded Streit for Filppula+4th(Sushko)+7th(Kalynuk)
Signed Vecchione as a UFA College player, in AHL
Named Kris Knoblauch assistant coach
Year 4
Traded Cousins+Madsen for Warren+5th(Wylie)
Traded B Schenn for 2 1st rounders-Frost+ 1st(Farabee)
Re-Signed Weal
Re-signed Neuvirth
Signed Elliott
Signed Varone for AHL
Signed Irving then traded him for Tokarski
Drafted in 2017:
Patrick: Now in NHL
Frost: tore up the OHL
Ratcliffe: Traded 3 picks for him: Westerlund+Schnarr+Hoefenmayer
Ustimenko: good MHL season
Strome: over PPG in OHL
Sushko: PPG in OHL
Cates: good USHL season
Lycksell: good SHL season
Kalynuk: good college season
Traded 3rd in 2018(Seth Barton) for Mrazek
Claimed Oduya off waivers while losing Alt to waivers
Year 5
Drafted in 2018
Farabee
O'Brien
Ginning
St.Ivany
Wylie
Ersson
Hain
Westfalt
Signed JVR
Signed Folin
Signed Zumula
Nov 26th Hextall Fired

 

[deadhead]

They weren't "all bums," but he had a lot of whiffs, given (8) 1sts and (6) 2nds. Some bad luck (Lindblom), some bad choices (Rubtsov, JOB, Laberge, Ginning), some both (Patrick). Provorov underachieved (relative to draft spot), so did NAK, TK overachieved. His good later round picks were Lindblom, Ersson and Cates. And Zamula as a UDFA. Nor did he hit any HRs, TK is the closest, maybe Farabee or Hart down the road.

York is already better than Provorov or Sanheim, though it's early, he could progress or regress.
Foerster will probably be as good as any forward drafted by Hextall other than TK and Farabee.
Brink??? Who knows.
Gauthier? He looks like a NHL lock, will he be worth a 5th or underachieve like Provorov.
Andrae looks like as good a bet as Hextall's late 2nd rd picks other than Hart.
Tou whiffed like Laberge and Ratcliffe.

We'll see if Samson, Gendron, et al develop, it took 5 years for Frost and Cates.

My point is that amateur scouting hasn't been a disaster, either under Hextall or Flahr. It could be better and more consistent.

However, look at the list of pro players brought in by Hextall, Gudas, MDZ, Schultz, White, PEB, VdV, Gagner, Medvedev, Neuvirth, Weal, Weise (4x2.65), Gordon, Lyubimov, Filppula, Lehtera, Elliott, JVR (5x7), Folin. Not exactly an exciting group.

 

[Tripod]

They weren't "all bums," but he had a lot of whiffs, given (8) 1sts and (6) 2nds. Some bad luck (Lindblom), some bad choices (Rubtsov, JOB, Laberge, Ginning), some both (Patrick). Provorov underachieved (relative to draft spot), so did NAK, TK overachieved. His good later round picks were Lindblom, Ersson and Cates. And Zamula as a UDFA. Nor did he hit any HRs, TK is the closest, maybe Farabee or Hart down the road.

York is already better than Provorov or Sanheim, though it's early, he could progress or regress.
Foerster will probably be as good as any forward drafted by Hextall other than TK and Farabee.
Brink??? Who knows.
Gauthier? He looks like a NHL lock, will he be worth a 5th or underachieve like Provorov.
Andrae looks like as good a bet as Hextall's late 2nd rd picks other than Hart.
Tou whiffed like Laberge and Ratcliffe.

We'll see if Samson, Gendron, et al develop, it took 5 years for Frost and Cates.

My point is that amateur scouting hasn't been a disaster, either under Hextall or Flahr. It could be better and more consistent.

However, look at the list of pro players brought in by Hextall, Gudas, MDZ, Schultz, White, PEB, VdV, Gagner, Medvedev, Neuvirth, Weal, Weise (4x2.65), Gordon, Lyubimov, Filppula, Lehtera, Elliott, JVR (5x7), Folin. Not exactly an exciting group.

I will only touch on the last part....agreed. most of us said back then their pro scouting sucked. But you also forget/ignore that Hextall was digging out of cap hell that was left to him AND was trying to rebuild the empty farm system AND still compete as his bosses wanted. Hard to add anything good with no money.

And since I just looked....this was the 2013 NHL.com top prospect list in order.

Laughton
Stolarz
McGinn
Lauridsen
Cousins
Morin
Hagg
Ghost
Manning
Akenson

 

[deadhead]

I will only touch on the last part....agreed. most of us said back then their pro scouting sucked. But you also forget/ignore that Hextall was digging out of cap hell that was left to him AND was trying to rebuild the empty farm system AND still compete as his bosses wanted. Hard to add anything good with no money.

And since I just looked....this was the 2013 NHL.com top prospect list in order.

Laughton
Stolarz
McGinn
Lauridsen
Cousins
Morin
Hagg
Ghost
Manning
Akenson

Hextall was given the permission to rebuild (though two years late, Holmgren should have started after the Carter/Richards trade), and made some good trades to start the process. His drafting was middle of the road, but the pro acquisitions were bad. He didn't have a lot of money his first couple years, but even then he didn't find many bargains (look at Carolina, for example). And while he was good at trading for draft picks, he wasn't good at using draft picks to acquire players (look at Colorado and Florida).

Fletcher overpaid Hayes (but pre-COVID contracts all looked bad with a flat cap), Niskanen and Braun were good moves, then he did little until the summer of 2021, when he seemed to panic, and basically placated AV. Dumping Ghost was pointless, especially when you use the cap room to overpay for Risto. Voracek for Atkinson was fine. The real problem at that point was the FO insistence on an aggressive reload, an honest look at the roster and you knew the gig was up unless Hart did his best Lundqvist.

Pro scouting seems to be the primary issue, they just don't identify good trade targets or waiver wire bargains. They brought in a lot of cheap FAs who flopped, Brassard was the best of the group under Fletcher, PEB under Hextall. But remember tonight, that Hextall traded Cousins for a 5th rd pick.