2023-24 Roster Thread 1: Entering the Starting Gate

[Magua]

It’s Provorov vs Sanheim all over again.

Because going long-term on Sanheim has worked out soooooo well.

It's probably worse in some ways. Unlike the Provorov-Norris delusions, the team knows that Cates is a depth player; Briere or someone mentioned about properly slotting players. He may or may not have mentioned Cates specifically. Frost so clearly has levels beyond Cates, and again, I think Briere knows it. The only silver lining is apparently Frost's biggest supporter is now GM. I don't have to think twice about what happens if Fletcher is still running the show.

I'm not against signing Cates long-term, but if I'm a betting man, Cates' production is likelier to go down, without top line/6 minutes (mostly with Konecny) and PP1 minutes. It sure as shit isn't going up. I don't think the calculus of signing him long-term changes at all 12 months from now. Frost could easily earn another $2MM on his AAV, if he's used properly.

 

[deadhead]

After a college career on a defensive oriented team, and a rookie year transitioning to center, Cates is still learning how to play offense. Cates is not going to be a playmaking center, he'll be best with a wing like Brink to set him up, but he has very good hands in crowds and will get better in dirty areas as he gets stronger.

He's not going to be a top six scoring center, but I think he'll be a solid scorer as a 3C who's a defensive specialist. As a LW with the right center he'd score more b/c of his willingness to do the dirty work in retrieving pucks and scoring garbage goals.

Frost has 2C potential, but most of his big games were against soft defenses - he has to learn to make plays against teams that are good at checking and taking away space.

 

[freakydallas13]

Sign every player to the contract that will bring in the most assets when they are traded, then trade those players.

Easy peasy.

 

[Beef Invictus]

After a college career on a defensive oriented team, and a rookie year transitioning to center, Cates is still learning how to play offense. Cates is not going to be a playmaking center, he'll be best with a wing like Brink to set him up, but he has very good hands in crowds and will get better in dirty areas as he gets stronger.

He's not going to be a top six scoring center, but I think he'll be a solid scorer as a 3C who's a defensive specialist. As a LW with the right center he'd score more b/c of his willingness to do the dirty work in retrieving pucks and scoring garbage goals.

Frost has 2C potential, but most of his big games were against soft defenses - he has to learn to make plays against teams that are good at checking and taking away space.

Wait, he's learning? In the NHL? You've insisted that can't be done. For years. If he isn't ready to play offense in the NHL, per your long-held reasoning he should be in the AHL until he figures it out somehow. "The NHL isn't a development league" as you've always said.

Glad to see you're coming around to the fact that it is, and that every player does development there.

 

[BernieParent]

I can't comprehend NHL contracts right now, but I will say they should use their cap space during "rebuilding" years to absorb long term cap hits for players they believe are long term pieces *gulp*. You either bridge because you aren't sure of the player or because you need the cap space to build a competitive roster. The second part should be off the table until further notice.

I've been vocal in the past of my hate of 3 year bridge deals for non-elite players. It gives you no flexibility when it expires. Myers, Lindblom, Hart all signed 3 year deals. One got bought out, one was pretty much bought out, and the third is going to get a huge ticket nearing UFA. Sanheim was bridged twice to 2 year deals and the UFA contract was not team friendly. It's just not good business.

As for the specific players, I think we got a glimpse at what the high end looks like for Frost and that is not the type I want to play year-to-year with. I've always been a Frost believer though and this organization has not, so there's that. I expect a bridge, but I think the smart play is to get him on a long-term deal with his past "struggles" baked into the number.

I would not be opposed to a Cates long-term deal, but the league still pays mostly for point production and I'm just not sure he has the raw skill to stuff the stat sheet and make you regret not extending him long-term. He may get there due to usage, but will he get the same usage if/when Coots returns? I would be OK playing year-to-year with him if need be.

York - Maybe we'll get clarity in the next two months, but how much more capital can the put into that blueline? I like York, but he's very much a complimentary player. Meaning - he's only going to produce at a high rate if he has the talent around him. That's not this team right now. He could be the full-time PP1 guy next year and that is something to consider, but this was the worst PP in the league this year, with the same coaching staff coming back (with a track record of poor results). It'll be hard to be the worst PP in the league again, but how much short term upside is there in that area?

Thanks for your thoughtful (in all senses of the word) response, FLY. In my myopic estimation, bridge deals are 1-2 years; i.e., "show me". I guess I am also coming from the perspective that the team has long-termed itself into inflexibility and that job 1 is regaining lots of wiggle room to help aim for elite assets. I would want to have lots of flexibility with all 3 of York, Cates, and Frost to go in any direction where opportunity presents itself, including moving them for better assets. There is likely wisdom in getting one or more of these youngsters to a multi-year contract at a team-friendly rate to maximize value as either a Flyer or in a deal, but my inner pessimist rolls right back into that rut of not expecting to win on betting long-term.

 

[Magua]

Charlie's article in the athletic today discusses what he would do with the RFA's. He said he'd go long-term on both York and Cates. Said he still needs to see more from Frost to give him a long term deal. I suspect that's what the Flyers would like to do as well. He thinks he won't score enough to be more than a 3C. I think anyone who sees it like that is purposefully looking at it that way.

Frost scored 36 points at 5v5 this year, totaling about 2.02 points per 60 minutes at 5v5. That ranks him tied for 99th (347 total forwards), putting him in the top 30% of forwards in total points per 60. Going solely on ranking position, which I don't like to do because it's somewhat arbitrary, he's already scoring at near top line levels (32*3=96 forwards). I've said this before, he was not given the best offensive wingers at 5v5.

However, when he's played with TK, their xGF/60 is 3.27 and xGF% is 53.05, but without TK the numbers are 2.26 and 47.10%. TK's xGF/60 and xGF% without Frost is 2.56 and his xGF% is 45.46%. It is mutually beneficial for those two to play together, and it took like 75 games for that to actually happen somewhat consistently. Lets pretend Frost was given Cates' deployment where he was given 400 minutes with TK. Frost is going to score anywhere from 2-5 more points during that time. That takes him from 36 to 38-41 points over the season at 5v5. This isn't Frost getting better, it's just using him with other offensive talent.

Further, he had 5 PP points (1G, 4A), while being used in the bumper and even net front at times. This is a woefully awful way to use the forward with the best vision on the team. This coaching staff has been suppressing Frost with suboptimal deployment all year. If they used him correctly this year, and actually played him with other elite talent, I gotta believe he scores 3-7 more power play points. Again, That's just using him correctly, no additional development, not getting better, just being used properly...And by the way, Remember when Charlie made up some bullshit about Giroux's PP scoring, saying it wasn't usage, but that Giroux's skill was decreasing...Guess what, this year Giroux PP points/60 increased back to his average around 16-17 and 17-18.

You add those extra 5 to 12 more points this year, and Frost ends up with 51-58 points this season....We saw him finish the last 60 games on a 60 point pace. There's no reason to believe that's not possible, if given better usage. The only way he doesn't produce next season is if he's not given the opportunity to do so. His entire history proves he's a very good, offensive producer, and to bet against that, particularly after the season he had given those variables above, is crazy.

To me, if I had to choose one player between Frost, Cates, and York to go long term, it's Frost, and it's not particularly close in my mind.

Boy, Charlie was dropping some absolute doozies today in his article/comments, checking it out myself:

• "It wouldn’t at all shock me to see [Cates] turn into a quality second-line winger or a stellar shutdown third-line center on a Cup-contending team. [...] I still wonder about [Frost's] fit on a Cup contender, and whether he’ll ever score enough to be anything more than a middle-of-the-road 3C for a club with designs on a title."
• "I'll say Brink because it's at least possible that he hits the NHL and just dominates more than anyone expects, whereas with Frost I feel like that ship has sailed. Plus, Brink maybe could be a legit power play driver at the NHL level as compared to Frost who has shown me nothing."
• "So in terms of players who may have been the right pick yet were developed poorly? I think one could argue that Isaac Ratcliffe, German Rubtsov and Nicolas Aube-Kubel fall into this bucket."
• "Tippett and York are the only other players [besides Konecny and Hart] I could plausibly see bringing back a first."
• "I think what it really boils down to is simple: Provorov’s offensive ability never came around the way we all thought it would."

 

[FLYguy3911]

Trade Targets: Erik Karlsson’s value may never be higher for San Jose Sharks

As we unveil our first offseason Trade Targets board, a weak UFA class and rising cap create optimal dealing conditions.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

 

[Young Sandwich]

Boy, Charlie was dropping some absolute doozies today in his article/comments, checking it out myself:

• "It wouldn’t at all shock me to see [Cates] turn into a quality second-line winger or a stellar shutdown third-line center on a Cup-contending team. [...] I still wonder about [Frost's] fit on a Cup contender, and whether he’ll ever score enough to be anything more than a middle-of-the-road 3C for a club with designs on a title."
• "I'll say Brink because it's at least possible that he hits the NHL and just dominates more than anyone expects, whereas with Frost I feel like that ship has sailed. Plus, Brink maybe could be a legit power play driver at the NHL level as compared to Frost who has shown me nothing."
• "So in terms of players who may have been the right pick yet were developed poorly? I think one could argue that Isaac Ratcliffe, German Rubtsov and Nicolas Aube-Kubel fall into this bucket."
• "Tippett and York are the only other players [besides Konecny and Hart] I could plausibly see bringing back a first."
• "I think what it really boils down to is simple: Provorov’s offensive ability never came around the way we all thought it would."

 

[Hextallent63]

The biggest difference between the two in consistency is between your ears.

is this sopposed to be showing equalness to a degree?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

is this sopposed to be showing equalness to a degree?

Yes. Basically what it shows you is that Middle 6 players are Middle 6 players because they're inconsistent. Even top liners can be inconsistent. It's not a knock on either player.

Sidney Crosby is consistent. Alex Ovechkin is consistent. That's what makes them superstars.

 

[renberg]

Why does it have to be Frost versus Cates? They’re two different types of players who should both have a place on the roster and a role to play on the club. It’s not like one displaces the other.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Ah, so the Frost character assassination is out on multiple fronts.

Weird.

 

[Magua]

Why does it have to be Frost versus Cates?

It doesn't, and it shouldn't. Not a whiff of these conversations happened before this fall. Funnily enough, the talk was how good they looked together down the stretch last season.

The team, especially Tortorella, pitted them against each other this year, with Frost drawing the short straw for biased reasons. Of course when you're talking about usage and contracts for similarly aged players you're going to get comparisons. It's a classic case of liking two players and NOT liking the framing of the discussion. This team always does a masterful job of causing evaluative friction.

 

[Tripod]

Ah, so the Frost character assassination is out on multiple fronts.

Weird.

Must be looking to trade him. Fits the Flyers way.

 

[Chinatown88]

This is how I feel every time I come back to this thread.

 

[Rebels57]

Boy, Charlie was dropping some absolute doozies today in his article/comments, checking it out myself:

• "It wouldn’t at all shock me to see [Cates] turn into a quality second-line winger or a stellar shutdown third-line center on a Cup-contending team. [...] I still wonder about [Frost's] fit on a Cup contender, and whether he’ll ever score enough to be anything more than a middle-of-the-road 3C for a club with designs on a title."
• "I'll say Brink because it's at least possible that he hits the NHL and just dominates more than anyone expects, whereas with Frost I feel like that ship has sailed. Plus, Brink maybe could be a legit power play driver at the NHL level as compared to Frost who has shown me nothing."
• "So in terms of players who may have been the right pick yet were developed poorly? I think one could argue that Isaac Ratcliffe, German Rubtsov and Nicolas Aube-Kubel fall into this bucket."
• "Tippett and York are the only other players [besides Konecny and Hart] I could plausibly see bringing back a first."
• "I think what it really boils down to is simple: Provorov’s offensive ability never came around the way we all thought it would."

The demise of Charlie has been tragic

 

[deadhead]

It doesn't, and it shouldn't. Not a whiff of these conversations happened before this fall. Funnily enough, the talk was how good they looked together down the stretch last season.

The team, especially Tortorella, pitted them against each other this year, with Frost drawing the short straw for biased reasons. Of course when you're talking about usage and contracts for similarly aged players you're going to get comparisons. It's a classic case of liking two players and NOT liking the framing of the discussion. This team always does a masterful job of causing evaluative friction.

Only the fans here pitted them against each other, mostly those who salivate over Frost and don't value defense.

Both players played an equal amount at center after Dec 7, when Cates moved from wing to center full-time. They're different players with different styles.

Charlie's right about Cates, he'd be a better LW than C offensively, but as an elite defensive center may have more value than being a middle of the road 2LW. But nothing says he can't do both depending on the game situation.

Charlie's overly optimistic about Brink, and overly pessimistic about Frost.
Both have to prove themselves, but Frost has performed in the NHL, a big edge.
I think Frost improved as the season went along, but needs to take it up another notch.
Brink has to show he can skate well enough to be able to utilize his IQ and vision on offense.

 

[freakydallas13]

Only the fans here pitted them against each other, mostly those who salivate over Frost and don't value defense.

Both players played an equal amount at center after Dec 7, when Cates moved from wing to center full-time. They're different players with different styles.

Charlie's right about Cates, he'd be a better LW than C offensively, but as an elite defensive center may have more value than being a middle of the road 2LW. But nothing says he can't do both depending on the game situation.

Charlie's overly optimistic about Brink, and overly pessimistic about Frost.
Both have to prove themselves, but Frost has performed in the NHL, a big edge.
I think Frost improved as the season went along, but needs to take it up another notch.
Brink has to show he can skate well enough to be able to utilize his IQ and vision on offense.

Frost scored 3 less points that Tipper this season, who management seems to be praising at every turn and saying ENDLESS good things about.

Pretending the Frost double standard doesn't exist is asinine.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

The interview a while back on the Nasty Knuckles podcast with Hartnell about Torts was pretty hilarious... and also a bit concerning...

Basically:

Hartnell was close to leading team in scoring from mainly 3rd and 4th line.
Asked why he kept getting benched in 3rd period despite track record, two-way play and scoring.
Torts said Hartnell sucked on D and he did not trust him as always out of position.
Hartnell said back that actually he knew he was doing a good job on D and had not made any mistakes in the season so far individually.
Torts said was going to go away with video coach to put together a "Lowlight" video of how much he sucked.
Next day Torts comes and says... well... we looked through the video and I was wrong, you were perfect on D every game...
But nevertheless I dont know what it is, I physically cant trust you on ice regardless of it not being logical.

On one hand, nice he admitted a mistake! But yeh, the rest?

that really sums up Torts... once he makes his mind up.. thats it..

doesnt matter if hes right or wrong.

this fanbase deserves Torts.. hahaaa

It’s like proudly announcing that you’ve removed a cancerous tumor while the patient is sitting on the Elephants Foot in Chernobyl.

Cool, tumors are bad, but you didn’t solve the source issue and the patient is still f***ed.

we changed 1 thing... rerebuild complete...

hahaa

 

[Beef Invictus]

Wait, they’re really trying this again?

Clarke is at it again.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Outclassed by Dallas twice in the same first round.

I wonder if Marek got that information from Clarke.

I do not wonder. He did. We've seen this stupid show before. Before we know it the story will be changing.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Why does it have to be Frost versus Cates? They’re two different types of players who should both have a place on the roster and a role to play on the club. It’s not like one displaces the other.

With the way the Flyers approach the sport, it is one or the other. That's the way they frame it, that's the way they want it to be. Mostly because Frost is exactly the kind of player they think they should subtract, because they are very stupid. It's their nonstop binary offense vs defense view where pure defense wins out every single time, and where they assume anyone with even a scrap of scoring ability must also be bad defensively. They give Couturier a pass because his playstyle looks more grindy than it does skilly, and their evaluation abilities are simply that shallow and vacuous. Meanwhile they had to drive Giroux out of town, and Voracek, and Ghost, and they're constantly agitated at TK, and grinding their teeth at Frost. Meanwhile they adore things like Risto, Cates, Deslauriers, TDA, because they have the attitude or grindy-grit or both. Lol, they thought Hayes was a grindy player. They suck ass at hockey.

The team will only perpetually get worse as they continue this thinking. They still have a ways to dig themselves down.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Only the fans here pitted them against each other, mostly those who salivate over Frost and don't value defense.

Both players played an equal amount at center after Dec 7, when Cates moved from wing to center full-time. They're different players with different styles.

Charlie's right about Cates, he'd be a better LW than C offensively, but as an elite defensive center may have more value than being a middle of the road 2LW. But nothing says he can't do both depending on the game situation.

Charlie's overly optimistic about Brink, and overly pessimistic about Frost.
Both have to prove themselves, but Frost has performed in the NHL, a big edge.
I think Frost improved as the season went along, but needs to take it up another notch.
Brink has to show he can skate well enough to be able to utilize his IQ and vision on offense.

What a poo pile of words.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Wait, they’re really trying this again?

And this is coming out now. I am calling bullshit. A big pile of it.

 

[Starat327]

What a poo pile of words.

So, the usual?