I'll move the reply into here so we're not bumping game threads.
Basically the OHL has produced 3-4 top 16 first rounders in the past 3 years including the only safely one projected this year in Dickinson with Parekh being likely but not guaranteed. There are a few that could sneak into the 2024 top half and Michael Misa is the presumptive first overall for 2025. From 2022 only Wright and Mintyukov were top half draftees out of the OHL and neither are there this year. 2023 saw zero top 16. The first was Barlow at 18 who is looking pretty mid. Many of the later first OHL guys are having Mesar's D+1-esque seasons.
The OHL isn't dying by any means but the current crop is fairly weak as a result of poor draft eligible players from 2022, 2023 and now projecting into 2024. Three draft years essentially covers the entire league. This is why Canada's WJC roster looks much weaker and few D+1 guys made the team last year. Usually there is a mix of D+2 and D+1 but last year was almost entirely D+2 with only Wright and Beck(as an injury replacement) as D+1 guys. So far this year's initial roster heavily features D+1 players. As D+2 there are Savoie, Beck, Ludwinski, Geekie, Firkus, Dumais, Warren, Mateychuk, Luneau, Lamoureux, Furlong, Donovan, Minten, and Buchinger as invites. I would expect most the cuts to come from this list. There are two undrafted 19 year olds as well but there are 8 D+1 guys invited, most of who will be back next year. I've never seen an entire team aged out the way last year's Canada team has.
Also when looking at this list you can see how much more Canada is relying on the WHL and Q than they traditionally have. Ontario by far has the largest playerbase to choose from and the Q used to only get 1-2 guys on the team despite being at nearly equal footing at the NHL level for decades.
NCAA:2
WHL:8
QMJHL:8
OHL:12
And while it looks convincing with the OHL having nearly as many invites the other two combined, pretty much all the guys on the fringe and in depth roles are from the OHL. All the stars of this team are in the WHL. And hockey Canada has an obvious Ontario bias as many of the staff are promoted from there.
With regards to Mesar as well, countrymate Dvorsky is outproducing Mesar in the same number of games while being a year younger and is still projected to be a third line C at the NHL level. The OHL is certainly not in an untouchable position at the moment with the WHL clearly being the number one for now. The Q has a lot more good players than it did a few years ago. While they are facing similar draft issues to the OHL of not having top prospects, a lot of the second and third rounders have been exceeding expectations in the past few years. It's become a bit of an unstated league. Guys like Bourque, Luneau, Roy, Mercer, and a few others were drafted far later than they should have been. The OHL has the opposite problem where a guy like Beck goes first in the second round where he probably should have been pick swapped with Hutson. I say this as someone who disparages the Q at every turn too.
Anyways, don't overstate OHL production in the current league (or discount the Q of the past few years), it's the weakest it's been in a long time. It will get better, junior hockey primarily encompasses three birth years and the D-1 (or -2 depending on your preferred nomenclature) year appears to be better than the current D+0, D+1, and D+2. Not only that, Kidney was higher in PPG with worse team mates while Mesar is the fourth best player on a stacked team. Every game his PPG is going down as well while his team mates are maintaining. He's slightly outpacing Beck but the difference is Beck is objectively the best player on his team and projects as a 3C.
