Speculation: 2023-24 Free Agency/Trade Thread II

[Anaheim4ever]

If Zegras gets traded the team store is going to lose 50% of their jersey sales. (Kidding of course, but most jerseys I see are zegras)

People can just buy a Carlsson one instead
Unless Demidov drops to #3 and the Ducks pick him I think the offense on the team is gonna be led by Carlsson in a year or two.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

I guess the @duxfan1101 Husso proposal a few pages back makes sense, but in the back of my mind, I still don’t think Gibby is getting moved simply because of money. I imagine you’re almost certainly retaining salary, and are the Samuelis really going to be thrilled eating 20+% (the amount I think it would take for any sort of viable return) for 3 years?

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I guess the @duxfan1101 Husso proposal a few pages back makes sense, but in the back of my mind, I still don’t think Gibby is getting moved simply because of money. I imagine you’re almost certainly retaining salary, and are the Samuelis really going to be thrilled eating 20+% (the amount I think it would take for any sort of viable return) for 3 years?

Assuming Henry is as hands off as we are led to believe, it shouldn’t really matter how Verbeek spends the budget he is given. But maybe Verbeek doesn’t want his budget slashed further by virtue of retention? Who knows. I just know this offseason can’t pass fast enough.

 

[tomd]

I guess the @duxfan1101 Husso proposal a few pages back makes sense, but in the back of my mind, I still don’t think Gibby is getting moved simply because of money. I imagine you’re almost certainly retaining salary, and are the Samuelis really going to be thrilled eating 20+% (the amount I think it would take for any sort of viable return) for 3 years?

Let's say the Ducks retained $2 million (about 30%) on a deal with Gibson. They would still save $4.4 million annually. Add a decent backup for maybe $1.5-2.0 million. Annual savings would be in the $2.5-3.0 million range. I think any owner would be happy with that. They could actually breakeven even with full 50% retention as long as the backup replacement cost didn't exceed $3.2 million.

 

[GiveYouABagOfPucks]

How would we feel about something around Z and Brady Tkachuck? I would be sad to see Z go especially because Z brings excitement to the fans/organization. If he is traded I hope it’s for a legit top liner.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

How would we feel about something around Z and Brady Tkachuck? I would be sad to see Z go especially because Z brings excitement to the fans/organization. If he is traded I hope it’s for a legit top liner.

Don’t think zegras gets us anywhere near.


It would have to start with mctavish/3rd overall

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

There's a difference between not being untouchable and being actively shopped. The issue is a lot of rumor mongers and HF trade board posters seem to think that the latter is the case and a team can scoop up Zegras at a discount. Unless the move clearly makes the Ducks better in the long term (as there's no high pressure to "win now" while the team is still rebuilding) there's no reason to move him. And if Verbeek lets himself get bent over just for the sake of moving on from Z, he should be fired.

Well yeah, I didn’t really say anything to the contrary. All I’m saying is that I think the reaction to the Zegras talk, that it’s a bunch of made up BS and isn’t happening, is wrong. Even the more tepid stuff, like “of course Verbeek is listening, he’ll listen on everyone, that’s his job” is wrong. I think it’s very notable that Zegras is apparently not untouchable.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

I’m late to the Athletic conversation, but why did VerBleak sound like he said a lot and a bunch of nothing at the same time..?

‘Gotta change the culture/team had a culture shock with veterans/but yeah I gotta sign more veterans’

‘Gibson good goalie blah blah blah’

Nothing of substance was really said there. I still have no f’ing clue what the ‘culture’ is here.

 

[70sSanO]

I don’t want to see Zegras moved, but there is one team that I think might overpay… Buffalo.

I can see Tuch + another asset and/or a pick (if Tuch’s clause can get worked out).

Buffalo desperately needs a name, and a native son so to speak, might be the ticket.

John

 

[Hey234]

I’m late to the Athletic conversation, but why did VerBleak sound like he said a lot and a bunch of nothing at the same time..?

‘Gotta change the culture/team had a culture shock with veterans/but yeah I gotta sign more veterans’

‘Gibson good goalie blah blah blah’

Nothing of substance was really said there. I still have no f’ing clue what the ‘culture’ is here.

Almost everything was a rehashing or slight rewording of the same statements made at the end on the season. It is truly a nothing sandwich. But I get it, they have to make money and Zegras brings in clicks.

 

[Hey234]

I don’t want to see Zegras moved, but there is one team that I think might overpay… Buffalo.

I can see Tuch + another asset and/or a pick (if Tuch’s clause can get worked out).

Buffalo desperately needs a name, and a native son so to speak, might be the ticket.

John

I would personally not do that trade. I think Zegras is the better player long term and he's younger. I like Tuch, but that's not the right move with Zegras.

The fact is that Tuch averages 70 points a season at 4.75 for two more years. If you're Buffalo, why would you trade that?

 

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

I’m late to the Athletic conversation, but why did VerBleak sound like he said a lot and a bunch of nothing at the same time..?

‘Gotta change the culture/team had a culture shock with veterans/but yeah I gotta sign more veterans’

‘Gibson good goalie blah blah blah’

Nothing of substance was really said there. I still have no f’ing clue what the ‘culture’ is here.

Cronin would whack players with a rake. Explains why they had so many injuries.

 

[70sSanO]

I would personally not do that trade. I think Zegras is the better player long term and he's younger. I like Tuch, but that's not the right move with Zegras.

The fact is that Tuch averages 70 points a season at 4.75 for two more years. If you're Buffalo, why would you trade that?

I wouldn’t trade him either. But it depends on the other asset and/or pick we get.

Zegras is from New York and after watching Eichel lift the cup and possibly watching Montour this year, they may want to add an exciting player who will become a fan favorite.

John

 

[dracom]

I don’t want to see Zegras moved, but there is one team that I think might overpay… Buffalo.

I can see Tuch + another asset and/or a pick (if Tuch’s clause can get worked out).

Buffalo desperately needs a name, and a native son so to speak, might be the ticket.

John

buffalo had a name, his name was Eichel. also I would not trade Zegras for a 28 year old signed for only 2 more seasons who has only put up more points than Zegras once.

 

[duckpuck]

I'm not pushing to trade Z and I don't really buy into the narrative that he's not a PV type of player. And even if that's true, the ducks would be better to wait to trade Z until after he bounces back (which he will).

That being said, the ducks should be listening to any offers. For me, I'd be very tempted by a trade for Montreal's 5th pick. That guarantees the ducks get one of Lindstrom/Demidov and one of Levshunov/Silayev/Dickinson. That would be a huge haul. Both players would be in the NHL pretty soon and the ducks would be stacked. However, next years team takes a step back unless you really upgrade with other moves.

If the ducks make that type of move (which would free up more salary), then they need to go hard after Roy and a veteran replacement for Z. Overpay for UFA if you have to.

If they sign a player like Roy, I wonder what they can get in a trade of Fowler? I think Fowler's value would be pretty high to a team like Toronto - he's a solid top 4 guy with term at a reasonable AAV. And Marner, for all his faults, will generate goals. I could see a trade involving those players with the ducks obviously adding other assets. Yes - Marner is not a PV type of player (whatever that means). But you needs a few Marners on a team with bigger guys. And just to be clear, I think Fowler could/should be traded elsewhere given the logjam of LHD.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I don’t want to see Zegras moved, but there is one team that I think might overpay… Buffalo.

I can see Tuch + another asset and/or a pick (if Tuch’s clause can get worked out).

Buffalo desperately needs a name, and a native son so to speak, might be the ticket.

John

Buffalo ain’t trading tuch…. He’s loved there

 

[70sSanO]

I’m fine not moving Zegras.

It is difficult to find a big top 6 RH scorer that is not “too” old we could get in return.

If Zegras doesn’t produce next year, we will have to take what we can get.

John

 

[Hey234]

The Athletic has an article breaking down the top 50 FA defensemen: Link. Just thought I would add some interesting comments:

Matt Roy

Over the last few seasons, Matt Roy has developed into a defensive rock for the Kings. Los Angeles has grown into one of the league’s best defensive teams in recent years and Roy is a big part of that in their top four. Over the last two seasons, the team has earned 0.25 more expected goals per 60 with Roy on the ice, and he has allowed just 2.26 expected goals against per 60. Last season, the Kings earned 57 percent of the goals and expected goals with Roy on the ice. That was while sharing tough-minute responsibilities with the top pair. Drew Doughty’s pair played more difficult minutes, yes, but the difference wasn’t big.

Roy ended up with a plus-4 Defensive Rating on the season, which is right in line with his projection for next season. It’s also the 12th-highest mark in the league among defensemen, sandwiched between Chris Tanev and Esa Lindell. He’s a strong shutdown type who can eat minutes — while not being a drag offensively, either. It’s worth mentioning that while the Kings faltered over the last two playoffs against the Oilers, Roy was far from a problem there. His goal and expected goal rates were above 50 percent both years. To do that against a steady diet of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl isn’t easy. Some may balk at a potential $6 million price tag, especially considering he’s 29. But Roy has been a sneaky good top-four option for the Kings. He can play on a top pair and bring out the best in an offensive No. 1.

Brett Peace

Most of the things said about Skjei apply here to Brett Pesce, though Pesce isn’t quite as offensively gifted. Carolina defenders are very tough to get a read on because it’s difficult to know what they’ll be capable of in a different system. The Hurricanes seem to play an entirely different sport, so it’s hard to comment on whether Pesce is an actually poor puck-mover or if that’s by design. He is great at defending the rush and still great defensively in general, enough to be on the ice for 55 percent of the expected goals last season. His absence during the playoffs was felt greatly.

There’s a right price to be paid for his services, and they entirely depend on term. He’s probably a $5 million defenseman now, but how long will that be true as he enters his 30s? That’s the risk when assessing how long his contract will be. Short and sweet is ideal, with $5.2 million over four years being a sweet spot. Anything more, by cash or length, could be problematic.

Dylan Demelo

For those who strike out on Roy or Tanev, Dylan DeMelo represents a solid, younger backup plan. He’s a strong No. 2 option who prioritizes defense and is an asset for clean responsible breakouts. DeMelo’s ability to exit zones with control is on par with Tanev’s. He’s the type of guy you pair with a stud and don’t think twice about.

DeMelo has taken on tougher minutes more consistently on the top pair with Josh Morrissey over the last two seasons, and the duo has looked very strong. Morrissey is the one who drives the bus, but DeMelo is a no-nonsense partner who allows Morrissey to shine. He’s a valuable No. 2 defenseman in that regard, and over the last two seasons he has earned 54 percent of the expected goals and 59 percent of the goals.

Last season, Demelo’s Offensive and Defensive Ratings were both plus-3.9. We’re exercising more caution with our projection, but that speaks to the kind of value he can bring. He should have no problem living up to $4 million or $5 million annually.

* Edit: Fat thumbed it and didn't finish writing

 

[All Mighty]

The Athletic has an article breaking down the top 50 FA defensemen: Link. Just thought I would add some interesting comments:

Matt Roy



Brett Peace


Dylan Demelo


* Edit: Fat thumbed it and didn't finish writing

I can see Pesce and maybe Roy having their UFA rights traded for a pick before July 1. I think there will be teams who want to guarantee a RHD upgrade. I’d probably give up a 3rd for Roy if it came with an extension. Unfortunately, I can’t see the Kings sending him here.

 

[JAHV]

Roy seems like the guy to go after. I'd do $6.5 million for five years or less. He could be a fantastic complement to either Mintyukov or Zellweger for years to come.

Mintyukov - Roy
Zellweger - Gudas
Fowler - Luneau/LaCombe/Vaakanainen/Lindstrom

 

[70sSanO]

I can see Pesce and maybe Roy having their UFA rights traded for a pick before July 1. I think there will be teams who want to guarantee a RHD upgrade. I’d probably give up a 3rd for Roy if it came with an extension. Unfortunately, I can’t see the Kings sending him here.

Well we wouldn’t send Bryzgalov for Brown. Which was a bad decision for us. Perry-Brown would have made us full tilt.

John

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Roy seems like the guy to go after. I'd do $6.5 million for five years or less. He could be a fantastic complement to either Mintyukov or Zellweger for years to come.

Mintyukov - Roy
Zellweger - Gudas
Fowler - Luneau/LaCombe/Vaakanainen/Lindstrom

Now I see why people are hesitant on Stamkos and other offensive weapons..

It’s to overpay guys like Roy

 

[gilfaizon]

Now I see why people are hesitant on Stamkos and other offensive weapons..

It’s to overpay guys like Roy

Time to get realistic on Stamkos, he isn't coming here. Matt Roy is a realistic target, and fits a need.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Time to get realistic on Stamkos, he isn't coming here. Matt Roy is a realistic target, and fits a need.

I think Stamkos is a much, much, much more realistic target than Matt Roy.

 

[Ducks DVM]

This is why Verbeek gave the disclaimer everyone fails to recall, that he’s not sure he can get both the RW and the RD.