Speculation: 2023-24 Armchair GM thread

[Minnewildsota]

Wheeler had the prospect pool ranked as 14th in 2020 and 1st in 2023.

2019-20 list might have the best player, but once you get past Boldy at 2 you go on a run of fringe NHLers that were mid round picks. Khovanov at 3, Firstov at 4, Hentges at 5, Beckman at 6, Menell at 7, Warren at 8, Lodnia at 9, and Hunter Jones at 10 There was zero depth to the pool at all. The only players with legit top 6 ability also played the same position. To make matters worse, most of these guys are still in the prospect. They were pushed down due to the number of better incoming prospects.

To compare to the 2022 HF Wild prospect rankings:
Khovanov: complete bust
Firstov: #20 on the list
Hentges: #16 on the list
Beckman: #11 on the list
Menell: traded away
Warren: outside the top 20 prospects
Lodnia: N/A
Jones: outside the top 20 prospects


If Wallstedt is a star level goaltender, the list heavily tilts towards 2023 being better. Yurov could give Boldy a bit of a run for his money. 3-10 are heavily favored to 2023.

The only gripe I have with this is the word “better”. It’s still to be determined but I understand your point and agree

 

[Spurgeon]

That's cause there wasn't much else to do. He inherited a team that was stuck.

He has done decent on a lot of fronts:

-signed Hartman 3x$1.7M. -signed Eriksson Ek for 8 years at $5.25M
-signed meaningful role players to cheap contracts (Johansson, Gaudreau, Merrill)

These have all been good moves with the exception of Merrill. I think it was unnecessary to give him 3 years and we really should be paying league minimum for a 7th defenseman (given the Suter/Parise buyouts).

-boosted the prospect pool, you can say they are a bunch of 2nd liners/2nd pair guys and I mostly agree but the prospect pool is significantly better than where it was and we have at least one player at every position that people can feel good about (for me it is Khusnutdinov - C, Ohgren - LW, Yurov - RW, Lambos - LD, Spacek - RD, Wallstedt - G).

This one is less impressive to me because all he literally needed to do was not trade his draft picks. He didn’t make a ton of trades to accumulate picks, but it is nice that we’ve been able to build up the prospect pool while remaining competitive.

-had an excellent trade deadline acquiring players that helped push us into the playoffs while Kaprizov was out

He did have a great trade deadline & I think that has been the best show of his GM abilities since he’s been here.

-turned Jordan Greenway into pick 64 (Riley Heidt)

Could’ve traded him earlier for more value. Moving on from him rather than signing him to that $3M extension would’ve been nearly enough to keep Fiala around for another year.

-traded a 34-35 year old goaltender for a 24-25 year old starter quality goaltender

He fell ass backwards into this trade after pissing off Talbot & getting bailed out by Ottawa. They were the ones who reached out offering Gus.

-signed Boldy to a long term extension that should look like a steal in a couple seasons when the cap spikes

Still TBD. He’s shown flashes of greatness, but two no-shows in the playoffs. Do think that signing is more likely to look good than bad though.

-moved on from Dumba, whom has needed a fresh start for a couple of seasons at least

Failed to trade him earlier. Refuse to believe there wasn’t a single team throughout Guerin’s entire tenure here that wouldn’t have traded a 1st+.

-reinvigorated the locker room with trading a 5th for Reaves

C’mon

-turned a backup goaltender in Kahkonen into a serviceable 2nd pairing Middleton

Could’ve traded Talbot instead and avoided that entire debacle in the offseason. Middleton is a below average #4 imo

-Pateryn for Cole was a steal

Good trade

-Turned Kunin and mid pick into a better player, a 2nd and a mid pick

Value seemed weak at the time of the trade. Still TDB on Khusnutdinov, but I do obviously like the outcome of this trade.

-Zucker for Addison and a 1st (Lambos) was pretty good value

Best trade he’s made since he started here.

I just don't view the sum of this as an average Joe GM would have done the same thing. A lot of these moves are pretty smart and calculated because that's the way they have to operate while still dealing with the Parise/Suter contracts. The real test for Guerin as a GM comes in the 2024-2026 time frame when the cap goes up and the buyout dead cap drops significantly.

I don’t think he’s done anything that’s worthy of crowning him anything more than an average GM. He has found ways to get through this dead cap surprisingly well, but as you said, we’ll see how things start looking with his signings starting next offseason. I haven’t been impressed with the type of players he seems to want to build the identity of this team around.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

@Spurgeon

I think most viewed Yzerman as a great GM for Tampa Bay. He’s been tossing out some questionable contracts now that he is GM of Detroit.

Fenton traded Granlund for Fiala and most thought that move wasn’t great. He also traded Nino for Rask.

Just never know how a GM is going to do.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

There isn't some magic formula to where you'd say, "we're definitely a 2nd round team at worst now".

Give me a playoff caliber team that's entertaining to watch for 82 games, and I'll take my chances from there.

Also, still want Lindholm.

 

[ctmagic]

There isn't some magic formula to where you'd say, "we're definitely a 2nd round team at worst now".

Give me a playoff caliber team that's entertaining to watch for 82 games, and I'll take my chances from there.

Also, still want Lindholm.

I’m usually not of mindset that one player can put you over the hump but man, we’d be a tough team to play against with Lindholm/Ek down the middle.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

I’m usually not of mindset that one player can put you over the hump but man, we’d be a tough team to play against with Lindholm/Ek down the middle.

Is it enough to cover for Brodin and Spurgeon turning into soft borderline top 4 dmen during the playoffs?

Part of me wonders if the team won't be able to advance until they replace them.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Is it enough to cover for Brodin and Spurgeon turning into soft borderline top 4 dmen during the playoffs?

Part of me wonders if the team won't be able to advance until they replace them.

Maybe.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Maybe.

We should go for it then.

 

[Wabit]

There isn't some magic formula to where you'd say, "we're definitely a 2nd round team at worst now".

Give me a playoff caliber team that's entertaining to watch for 82 games, and I'll take my chances from there.

Also, still want Lindholm.

The problem for me is I see the team as a fringe quality Playoff team, and that's mostly due to Kap. The team also isn't entertaining except when Kap is on the ice.

Is it enough to cover for Brodin and Spurgeon turning into soft borderline top 4 dmen during the playoffs?

Part of me wonders if the team won't be able to advance until they replace them.

Spurgeon is a problem. Brodin is fine, he's just not a 1D.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The problem for me is I see the team as a fringe quality Playoff team, and that's mostly due to Kap. The team also isn't entertaining except when Kap is on the ice.

Yeah, I didn’t mean that it’s what I thought we currently are. Just a general line of thinking.

Goes back to the whole Fiala thing.

 

[Wabit]

Yeah, I didn’t mean that it’s what I thought we currently are. Just a general line of thinking.

Goes back to the whole Fiala thing.

It's not just Fiala. I'm even thinking back to the Yeo days. Those teams weren't super exciting, but they had more entertainment value for me. Kap is more exciting that anyone on those teams, for sure.

As a rough comparison for my entertainment: Zucc = Granny, Boldy = Pommer, JEE = Parise, Freddy G. = Coyle. There just isn't the Nino, Zucker, Haula, or Dumba55 to make things interesting enough to watch the 2/3 of the game Kap wasn't on the ice last season.

 

[Sota Popinski]

The effective path that I would take is sell of this year, retool next year when we can take on players in the last year of their deal. Sell players now, like the blues did this year, to aquire assets that we can use in the retool. Move off any players that don’t have long term value. I’d see if I can convince Spurgeon to move, even if I have to retain a million. Hartman would surely fetch a first, might be a deadline thing though. Foligno should go too( though that could also be a deadline deal.

If we needed to replenish our prospect pool I would agree, but since we already have one of the best, I'm in favor of doing what BG is doing. If we get to the deadline and aren't in a playoff spot, maybe sell then but why write off a season before it starts when we have what looks like a team that will make the playoffs?

 

[DigitalBoldy]

We should trade for Konecny at the TDL this year. 1st+prospect. Make the salary fit this year due to the accrued cap space and he takes Zucc’s cap space for the following year. He’s up for an extension when the dead cap drops.

Kap-Hartman-Konecny
Boldy-Ek-Johansson
Zucc-Rossi-Walker
Dewar-Gaudreau-Foligno

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

We should trade for Konecny at the TDL this year. 1st+prospect. Make the salary fit this year due to the accrued cap space and he takes Zucc’s cap space for the following year. He’s up for an extension when the dead cap drops.

Kap-Hartman-Konecny
Boldy-Ek-Johansson
Zucc-Rossi-Walker
Dewar-Gaudreau-Foligno

He’s a right shot. Pass

 

[Wasted Talent]

Arbitration dates:

Duhaime in July 20th
Gus in August 4th

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Arbitration dates:

Duhaime in July 20th
Gus in August 4th

Swayman before Gus is fairly interesting.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Young defenseman RFA signing: Cam York in Philly gets 2 x $1.6M.

20 points in 54 games playing ~19:30 per game. -1, for whatever that's worth.

Addison:

29 points in 62 games playing ~16:00 per game. -17.

 

[Circulartheory]

Cam York just signed for $1.6 million AAV for 2 years. Hopefully, that throws the Wild just one more item that works in their favor when negotiation with Addison. My assumption is that York is loved over there so Addison might be close to a $1.0mil - $1.3mil AAV type of deal for 1 year.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Minnesota has some key free agents coming up at the end of the season, and I have to wonder what their plans are - if they are going to kick the can down the road or what? Guerin seems to be a bit more aggressive moving guys that don't fit, but also bringing back guys that...are past their prime.

Pat Maroon is the most intriguing given his pedigree. I don't think Minnesota would get a 1st, but there is a chance someone may overpay at the end of the season for him given he has 3 Stanley Cups attached to him and he is that type of gritty forward you want come playoff time. I think a 2nd maybe more in line with his value, but depending on the sellers and buyers at the deadline, he could end up being a huge surprise.

There has been zero talks regarding Zuccarello or Hartman and extensions, which is strange. We heard that Minnesota is interested in bringing Foligno back, so the rumor is floated out there that Minnesota has kicked the tires on Foligno and has gauged his interest. Hartman is a bit worrisome because he's going to get a pay raise and possibly a pretty big one since it might be his last major contract so he might be thinking of cashing in. Zuccarello there is a chance he'll start falling off and by that time, his value is gone, so do you move him before then and hope a guy like Rossi or Beckman or Walker takes his place?

Then you have veterans like Goligoski and Fleury who have pretty much ZERO value except for being a veteran presence, so do you trade them for change and at least get 10 cents back on the dollar you spent or do you let them walk? Neither is a big issue but it'd be interesting to see if Minnesota floats them out there.

Then you have Duhaime, who is young. Do you move him or do you work out a longer contract extension?

My hope is that Guerin is gunning for the 25-26 season. Get high draft picks in 24 and 25 and continue building so they can be ultra-competitive come 25-26 with a bunch of cap space and flush with a ton of prospects that they can trade or work into the system.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Minnesota has some key free agents coming up at the end of the season, and I have to wonder what their plans are - if they are going to kick the can down the road or what? Guerin seems to be a bit more aggressive moving guys that don't fit, but also bringing back guys that...are past their prime.

Pat Maroon is the most intriguing given his pedigree. I don't think Minnesota would get a 1st, but there is a chance someone may overpay at the end of the season for him given he has 3 Stanley Cups attached to him and he is that type of gritty forward you want come playoff time. I think a 2nd maybe more in line with his value, but depending on the sellers and buyers at the deadline, he could end up being a huge surprise.

There has been zero talks regarding Zuccarello or Hartman and extensions, which is strange. We heard that Minnesota is interested in bringing Foligno back, so the rumor is floated out there that Minnesota has kicked the tires on Foligno and has gauged his interest. Hartman is a bit worrisome because he's going to get a pay raise and possibly a pretty big one since it might be his last major contract so he might be thinking of cashing in. Zuccarello there is a chance he'll start falling off and by that time, his value is gone, so do you move him before then and hope a guy like Rossi or Beckman or Walker takes his place?

Then you have veterans like Goligoski and Fleury who have pretty much ZERO value except for being a veteran presence, so do you trade them for change and at least get 10 cents back on the dollar you spent or do you let them walk? Neither is a big issue but it'd be interesting to see if Minnesota floats them out there.

Then you have Duhaime, who is young. Do you move him or do you work out a longer contract extension?

My hope is that Guerin is gunning for the 25-26 season. Get high draft picks in 24 and 25 and continue building so they can be ultra-competitive come 25-26 with a bunch of cap space and flush with a ton of prospects that they can trade or work into the system.

Nah. I guarantee they have value. They just don't have value to you.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Nah. I guarantee they have value. They just don't have value to you.

i mean what is the value? a 4th round or 5th round pick at this point? I think they have more value to the team than another team. Sort of like Dumba.

 

[Minnewildsota]

i mean what is the value? a 4th round or 5th round pick at this point? I think they have more value to the team than another team. Sort of like Dumba.

Yeah. Probably around there - but that's not ZERO value...

 

[thestonedkoala]

Yeah. Probably around there - but that's not ZERO value...

That's pretty much ZERO value. I mean look at Dumba. You can say he has value but is it really value?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If we're in the playoffs, we'll keep our guys.
If we're on the bubble, we'll probably keep our guys.
If we're definitively out of the playoffs, we could very well move a couple.

It's not complicated.

 

[thestonedkoala]

If we're in the playoffs, we'll keep our guys.
If we're on the bubble, we'll probably keep our guys.
If we're definitively out of the playoffs, we could very well move a couple.

It's not complicated.

Do these guys fit in with the future of this team? How much value are they going to lose on our team vs another team? Are they blocking someone that could use time in the NHL? How much are they going to want to extend? Have they been producing in the playoffs? How much of a bubble team is this?

The Central is going to be a buzz saw again this year.