Speculation: 2023-24 Armchair GM thread

[Circulartheory]

Ryan Hartman is just Charlie Coyle. More physical/aggressive, shorter, more bad penalties, but he's a super utility guy that can play any position on any line, even if he probably should be playing on the third line in an ideal situation.

In a world where we don't have dead cap, I'd probably be okay with up to 4.5Mx4-5, but I wouldn't love it. I do think we should try to keep him if the contract is reasonable though.

I was actually surprised to see how many players in around Hartman's category was being paid 4mil+. I think if Hartman has another season like last year scoring at the 0.63PPG rate, he's going to have a market value of $5.05mil AAV.

My math is based on % of cap hit and if the cap raises to $87.7mil.
If he is 5.5% of the team's cap, thats around $4.8mil
If he's 6% of a team's cap, thats around $5.3mil.

Average that out, add the fact he's a versatile forward that can play the gritty game, that is always in high demand, and that's likely he's going to try to capitalize on his prime years (he's 28) I think we're looking at $5.05mil.

While I want to pay him, I honestly think like Dumba, he's pricing himself out and most likely be a prime trade deadline candidate versus re-signing. Either that or trade Foligno because in 2 years time, they likely cement the checking line together and off Kaprizovs line and you can't be spending 8mil on Hartman/Foligno (or trade both).

 

[DigitalBoldy]

I don't think so. Functional (slightly above league average) goaltending was MAF last year. Just going by GSAA MAF was +5 and Gus was +31 (+36 combined). 2 MAF quality goalies would have only been +10 combined. Giving up 26 more goals in a season MN would have been -5 last year.

MN is also down from 3 top-4 d-men last year to 2 this year. If (more like when) Brodin or Spurgeon gets injured MN will be down to 1.

Outside of Boldy, Addison, and rookies; the rest of the players on the team are what they are as players and aren't going to improve, and are more likely to fall off.

MAF had a record of 24-16-4 (59% point percentage). That would have put us at 97 points. WC2 in the West was 95 points. That puts us firmly on the borderline of being a playoff team, which is what I said the team would be.

 

[Spurgeon]

I let Hartman walk at anything above $3.5M. He’s one of my favorite players on the team, but realistically he’s going to be the 3RW for the majority of that contract and would need to be paid like one.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

I think it would be fun to swap Nylander in for Zucc after this season. I think we could afford to pay him and we have the potential prospects to cover cost shedding

Kaprizov-Khusnutdinov-Nylander
Johansson-Eriksson Ek-Boldy
Ohgren-Rossi-Yurov
Duhaime-Dewar-Walker

Middleton-Spurgeon
Brodin-Faber
Hunt-Spacek
Merrill/other

Gus
Wallstedt

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think it would be fun to swap Nylander in for Zucc after this season. I think we could afford to pay him and we have the potential prospects to cover cost shedding

Kaprizov-Khusnutdinov-Nylander
Johansson-Eriksson Ek-Boldy
Ohgren-Rossi-Yurov
Duhaime-Dewar-Walker

Middleton-Spurgeon
Brodin-Faber
Hunt-Spacek
Merrill/other

Gus
Wallstedt

I’m down.

 

[Wabit]

I think it would be fun to swap Nylander in for Zucc after this season. I think we could afford to pay him and we have the potential prospects to cover cost shedding

Kaprizov-Khusnutdinov-Nylander
Johansson-Eriksson Ek-Boldy
Ohgren-Rossi-Yurov
Duhaime-Dewar-Walker

Middleton-Spurgeon
Brodin-Faber
Hunt-Spacek
Merrill/other

Gus
Wallstedt

So back the the Fletcher model of spending 38% of the cap on 3 wingers + 1 d-man, while going cheap on centers?

Kap+Boldy+Spurgeon+Nylander ($9.75m) would be $33.5m. That's the same cap % (on $87.5m cap) as Suter+Parise+Pommer+Vanek was in the 15-16 season.

 

[Blue Ox]

I think it would be fun to swap Nylander in for Zucc after this season. I think we could afford to pay him and we have the potential prospects to cover cost shedding

Kaprizov-Khusnutdinov-Nylander
Johansson-Eriksson Ek-Boldy
Ohgren-Rossi-Yurov
Duhaime-Dewar-Walker

Middleton-Spurgeon
Brodin-Faber
Hunt-Spacek
Merrill/other

Gus
Wallstedt

I'm up.

 

[DANOZ28]

gr88888t! kaprizov is going to have to fight his own battles , that really worked well for dumba! ps should we call them team cupcake?

 

[DigitalBoldy]

So back the the Fletcher model of spending 38% of the cap on 3 wingers + 1 d-man, while going cheap on centers?

Kap+Boldy+Spurgeon+Nylander ($9.75m) would be $33.5m. That's the same cap % (on $87.5m cap) as Suter+Parise+Pommer+Vanek was in the 15-16 season.

1. The winger group is substantially better now vs 15-16.
2. Your numbers are arbitrary and pointless. The cap will go up.
3. We literally get $14M to go after a center one year later with minimal holes on the roster.

 

[Wasted Talent]

So back the the Fletcher model of spending 38% of the cap on 3 wingers + 1 d-man, while going cheap on centers?

Kap+Boldy+Spurgeon+Nylander ($9.75m) would be $33.5m. That's the same cap % (on $87.5m cap) as Suter+Parise+Pommer+Vanek was in the 15-16 season.

Parise led the 15-16 trio in scoring with 53 points and the other two were ~40 point players.

Boldy is the lowest scoring of the new trio and had 61 points. Together they have about 100 more points than the 15-16 trio.

You can argue it's not worth spending that much on three wingers but it's not really comparable to Fletcher's model.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

I would not commit to another winger for anything more than Brodin or JEE make, we do not have the cap structure for that to work out in the long run. Our D, G, and C that we have signed are all significantly underpaid compared to league wide top teams. That is not a sustainable allocation over the long haul in my opinion, you cannot get Ryan Hartman value contracts in any repeatable manner.

Suter's cap hit was allocated to a #1 D man, and we haven't replaced his #1 D salary yet either when you factor in the available space. Eventually you will have someone making big bucks back there if you want to be good.

We have good players and a good culture, in a good place to live and play hockey, we are an attractive destination when we have money available, keeping options open to solve the team's biggest weaknesses is far more valuable to me than having 3 Elite RWs instead of 2.

 

[Wabit]

1. The winger group is substantially better now vs 15-16.
2. Your numbers are arbitrary and pointless. The cap will go up.
3. We literally get $14M to go after a center one year later with minimal holes on the roster.

Yep the cap will go up. We heard that after the Parise/Suter signing and it went flat. We heard that again and then COVID happened and it went flat again.

In 7 seasons the cap went up by $25m from $39m (05-06) to $64.3m (11-12). The cap has only gone up $19.2M in the 12 years since then.

I see a lot of holes in the lineup, but I also don't count on the prospects for much of anything.

 

[57special]

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If there's a center out there for Nylander's hypothetical $9.75M, by all means go that route. If not, I don't see the harm in adding talent to the roster for no outgoing assets. Also hedges a bit against Kaprizov bolting for nothing 2 years later.

 

[AKL]

Ideally you don't add a 1C or 1D through free agency, but here we are without either in the prospect pool. At this point add whatever talent you can. Kaprizov leaves and we have Boldy and Yurov leading the offense in 5+ years, I love both of them but that's a recipe for more first/second round exits every year. Who knows, maybe one of them can make the jump to C down the line.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

There are 3 UFA centers next summer that worth any sort of damn: Scheifele, Lindholm and Stephenson. Another couple that might almost be worth a damn: Hartman, Wennberg.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Yep the cap will go up. We heard that after the Parise/Suter signing and it went flat. We heard that again and then COVID happened and it went flat again.

In 7 seasons the cap went up by $25m from $39m (05-06) to $64.3m (11-12). The cap has only gone up $19.2M in the 12 years since then.

I see a lot of holes in the lineup, but I also don't count on the prospects for much of anything.

I will say, you’re like the overcorrection for the person who thinks every prospect is going to hit. Realistically, it’s somewhere in the middle. We do have a bunch of 1st and 2nd round prospects, so I think our chances are increased of finding NHL players.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

If there's a center out there for Nylander's hypothetical $9.75M, by all means go that route. If not, I don't see the harm in adding talent to the roster for no outgoing assets. Also hedges a bit against Kaprizov bolting for nothing 2 years later.

Looks like the Ducks are playing stupid with Zegras. Really unfortunate we don’t have the cap space to pursue him via trade.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Looks like the Ducks are playing stupid with Zegras. Really unfortunate we don’t have the cap space to pursue him via trade.

Not being able to currently sign him doesn't exactly mean that they'd be looking to trade him. He could also be asking for absurd terms as well.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Not being able to currently sign him doesn't exactly mean that they'd be looking to trade him. He could also be asking for absurd terms as well.

There are reports the Ducks have only made offers in the $3-4M range.

 

[Webster]

Cap hell isn't over next year, so why spend a ton of money on Nylander if you can sign Zucc for 3.5M, would be a bargain for the Wild.

Evason just reported that Zucc is in tremendous shape. Coach also said this: "People are saying that Zuccy benefits from Kirill, no...it's more that Kirill benefits from Zuccy's vision and playmaking abilities".

 

[AKL]

As much as a 90 point player can benefit from a 45 point player, I guess

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Cap hell isn't over next year, so why spend a ton of money on Nylander if you can sign Zucc for 3.5M, would be a bargain for the Wild.

Evason just reported that Zucc is in tremendous shape. Coach also said this: "People are saying that Zuccy benefits from Kirill, no...it's more that Kirill benefits from Zuccy's vision and playmaking abilities".

Among other things, Nylander will have just turned 28, and Zuccarello will be about to turn 37.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If there is a reasonable way to give Zuccarello $3.5M (Fleury's $3.5M) and then give Nylander $9.1M (Zuccarello's $6M + Foligno's $3.1M), I'm down.

 

[AKL]

For me personally, I'd prefer to move on from old guys who are clearly on the decline and are always injured and irrelevant in the playoffs.