Speculation: 2023-24 Armchair GM thread

[DC4MVP]

It's just disappointing that the one they chose to trade was the 26 year old, not the 36 year old.

You do know that Mats had a modified no-trade that limited what the Wild could do with him if they did want to trade him over Fiala, right? Still wouldn't have been able to afford Fiala, anyways.

My point was just that he hasn't built an A+ pipeline. I know why he hasn't been able to and I understand his justifications, but it's still not an A+ pipeline with just a bunch of depth and no star power.

I feel it's the best pipeline in the league. Top goalie prospect and 3-5 guys who have an extremely good shot at being big time contributors on the blueline and at forward.

To each their own, I guess.

 

[AKL]

I feel it's the best pipeline in the league. Top goalie prospect and 3-4 guys who have an extremely good shot at being big time contributors on the blueline and at forward.

To each their own, I guess.

Most high end guys don't spend much time as part of the prospect pool, so consider U23 guys around the league and we drop down to league average rapidly.

And that's assuming all of the prospects pan out more or less how we want them to, which is a long shot.

 

[DC4MVP]

And that's assuming all of the prospects pan out more or less how we want them to, which is a long shot.

That's why depth is important. If you have 12 guys who can be top-6 or top-4, you only need 40% of them to turnout which would be 3 of the 12 and that's a win in my book.

If you have a prospect pool for 12 guys where it's two potential 1st liners and 10 4th liners, your odds are going way down of prospects turning out. That's why I LOVE the depth of this prospect pool. The more PLINKO chips you have, the better chance you're going to hit the $10,000 slot.

 

[thestonedkoala]

That's great and he had 10x the flexibility in his tenure that GMBG has because of Chuck's signing of Parise/Suter. Had to be done and was HGUE at the time but it's the reason GMBG can't do anything at the moment.

I'm talking strictly about ranking prospects. Minnesota had a top group at one time including the best prospect in the world and they flopped.

 

[57special]

I'm waiting till 25-26, then hoping we'll have something worth watching and cheering for. Will be interested to see if Dean lasts that long.

 

[DC4MVP]

I'm talking strictly about ranking prospects. Minnesota had a top group at one time including the best prospect in the world and they flopped.

So just because Chuck's crop flopped means Bill's will?

I know that if you have 15 NHL caliber prospects, you'd be over-joyed if 5 are regular NHL'ers but I'm not going to sit here and say that just because the last GM's prospect group didn't turn out, that we may as well give up on Guerin's group.

 

[DC4MVP]

I'm waiting till 25-26, then hoping we'll have something worth watching and cheering for. Will be interested to see if Dean lasts that long.

It depends on playoffs.

Dean has shown he can get the team there but the results have been disastrous and that will be Dean's downfall if it happens again, there's going to be some fire under his butt.

I think if anything, 25-26 would be the year they start fresh with a new coach if not 24-25.

 

[AKL]

That's why depth is important. If you have 12 guys who can be top-6 or top-4, you only need 40% of them to turnout which would be 3 of the 12 and that's a win in my book.

If you have a prospect pool for 12 guys where it's two potential 1st liners and 10 4th liners, your odds are going way down of prospects turning out. That's why I LOVE the depth of this prospect pool. The more PLINKO chips you have, the better chance you're going to hit the $10,000 slot.

Yeah and then you're still missing the top end guys you actually need to lead that depth. That looks pretty much like what we've been watching for the last decade.

So just because Chuck's crop flopped means Bill's will?

No, but it absolutely means that having a highly ranked prospect pool means approximately nothing.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I'm waiting till 25-26, then hoping we'll have something worth watching and cheering for. Will be interested to see if Dean lasts that long.

Tanking in 25 and getting Misa might not be a bad idea.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

From my perspective, he prioritizes the wrong things, and unless there's a change, it's going to prevent him from building a real contender. So better, worse, I don't know, maybe about the same. I don't see us consistently making deep runs with his teams based on what I've seen so far.

I think he's done about the best he can with the cards he was dealt outside of the Fiala situation. He made revamping the prospect pool a top priority and accomplished that while the team was still making the playoffs. He's been willing to make trades that look good so far (Zucker, move up for Wallstedt, tried to move up to get Oliver Moore, all the deadline deals this past season, etc). He put some emphasis on getting centers this past draft, which people have been clamoring for years that they need to do. He got both size and skill at the position. He's been involved with some rather large name fish (Eichel).

I don't think many GMs could have done much better in the same situation.

 

[AKL]

I think he's done about the best he can with the cards he was dealt outside of the Fiala situation. He made revamping the prospect pool a top priority and accomplished that while the team was still making the playoffs. He's been willing to make trades that look good so far (Zucker, move up for Wallstedt, tried to move up to get Oliver Moore, all the deadline deals this past season, etc). He put some emphasis on getting centers this past draft, which people have been clamoring for years that they need to do. He got both size and skill at the position. He's been involved with some rather large name fish (Eichel).

I don't think many GMs could have done much better in the same situation.

Frankly I think many GM's could have done exactly what he did. It's not particularly hard to acquire bottom sixers and not trade your picks while already having a playoff caliber core.

 

[ctmagic]

I think the owners goal was to continue to compete and that was made very clear to GMBG when he was hired. Everyone wants to complain and talk about how they’d bottom out and rebuild but that option was never on the table. It would take a disastrous season causing already empty seats before that will be considered. Bill’s worse than Fletcher? Gtfoh, it’s not even in the same realm. I want to see how BG operates once the shackles are off before I pass judgment.

 

[P10p]

Yeah and then you're still missing the top end guys you actually need to lead that depth. That looks pretty much like what we've been watching for the last decade.


No, but it absolutely means that having a highly ranked prospect pool means approximately nothing.

No, it really doesn't. At all.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Better to have a highly regarded pool than a lowly regarded one, but yeah, still a long ways to go.

 

[AKL]

No, it really doesn't. At all.

Go ahead and prove for me that having Corey Pronman think highly of your prospect pool leads to any kind of meaningful success in the playoffs. I'll wait anxiously.

 

[P10p]

Go ahead and prove for me that having Corey Pronman think highly of your prospect pool leads to any kind of meaningful success in the playoffs. I'll wait

Of course the bar moves when confronted. Awesome strawman!

 

[P10p]

Right, I forgot you're not a serious poster

From "having a top ranked prospect pool means nothing"

To "cory pronman liking your prospect pool doesn't equal playoff success"

I forgot you just spout bs and move the bar when confronted.

 

[TaLoN]

From "having a top ranked prospect pool means nothing"

To "cory pronman liking your prospect pool doesn't equal playoff success"

I forgot you just spout bs and move the bar when confronted.

The ranking of the prospect pools is done by journalists is the point. Having them rank your pool high doesn't accomplish anything other than being something to "feel good" about.
How many consecutive years was AZ's prospect pool in the top 5 and yet never helped them on the ice at all down the road?

 

[Wabit]

The prospect pool rankings mean nothing to me. There are 7 (2nd pair ceiling) d-men that are just different colors of the same year, make, and model; 2 small FWDs that I think bust; a stud goalie; a couple of 2nd line ceiling FWDs; and some bottom of the lineup roster fillers.

As for GMBG made the team and the cap worse all on his own. Spurgeon, Goli (Suter's spot and cap), giving Boldy a long team deal instead of a bridge, not signing Fiala, Rossi/Lambos 1sts, so many LD picks, not signing McBain, Evason as the coach.

He's in his 5th year now and his main additions to the NHL team are Freddy G and Talbot/Gus/MAF.

 

[TaLoN]

The prospect pool rankings mean nothing to me. There are 7 (2nd pair ceiling) d-men that are just different colors of the same year, make, and model; 2 small FWDs that I think bust; a stud goalie; a couple of 2nd line ceiling FWDs; and some bottom of the lineup roster fillers.

As for GMBG made the team and the cap worse all on his own. Spurgeon, Goli (Suter's spot and cap), giving Boldy a long team deal instead of a bridge, not signing Fiala, Rossi/Lambos 1sts, so many LD picks, not signing McBain, Evason as the coach.

He's in his 5th year now and his main additions to the NHL team are Freddy G and Talbot/Gus/MAF.

Faber as well... probably the best of the bunch, but that was at the cost of Fiala...

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Frankly I think many GM's could have done exactly what he did. It's not particularly hard to acquire bottom sixers and not trade your picks while already having a playoff caliber core.

That's cause there wasn't much else to do. He inherited a team that was stuck.

He has done decent on a lot of fronts:

-signed Hartman 3x$1.7M

-signed Eriksson Ek for 8 years at $5.25M

-signed meaningful role players to cheap contracts (Johansson, Gaudreau, Merrill)

-boosted the prospect pool, you can say they are a bunch of 2nd liners/2nd pair guys and I mostly agree but the prospect pool is significantly better than where it was and we have at least one player at every position that people can feel good about (for me it is Khusnutdinov - C, Ohgren - LW, Yurov - RW, Lambos - LD, Spacek - RD, Wallstedt - G).

-had an excellent trade deadline acquiring players that helped push us into the playoffs while Kaprizov was out

-turned Jordan Greenway into pick 64 (Riley Heidt)

-traded a 34-35 year old goaltender for a 24-25 year old starter quality goaltender

-signed Boldy to a long term extension that should look like a steal in a couple seasons when the cap spikes

-moved on from Dumba, whom has needed a fresh start for a couple of seasons at least

-reinvigorated the locker room with trading a 5th for Reaves

-turned a backup goaltender in Kahkonen into a serviceable 2nd pairing Middleton

-Pateryn for Cole was a steal

-Turned Kunin and mid pick into a better player, a 2nd and a mid pick

-Zucker for Addison and a 1st (Lambos) was pretty good value


I just don't view the sum of this as an average Joe GM would have done the same thing. A lot of these moves are pretty smart and calculated because that's the way they have to operate while still dealing with the Parise/Suter contracts. The real test for Guerin as a GM comes in the 2024-2026 time frame when the cap goes up and the buyout dead cap drops significantly.

 

[Wabit]

The prospect pool when GMBG took over had Kap and Boldy in it, and I don't see anyone in the current pool that are as good as they were. It also had Dewar, Shaw, Duhaime, Kahk, McBain, Beckman, and Khovanov (people were super high on him as a prospect).

 

[DigitalBoldy]

The prospect pool when GMBG took over had Kap and Boldy in it, and I don't see anyone in the current pool that are as good as they were. It also had Dewar, Shaw, Duhaime, Kahk, McBain, Beckman, and Khovanov (people were super high on him as a prospect).

Look at this list and tell me the pool isn't better now. That's a very sad list of fourth line players. I remember people feeling good about Beckman and Khovanov (the head case). The rest were long shots to be NHL players. If Yurov, Ohgren, Stramel, Rossi, Khusnutdinov, Heidt, Kumpulainen, etc all top out as fourth line players that will be a MASSIVE disappointment.

I have Wallstedt in the same tier as Boldy. Rossi was supposed to be in the same tier. A stroke of bad luck mixed with some physical limitations have thrown that for a loop.

Agreed on Kaprizov, but it's not like Fletcher/Flahr knew that Kaprizov was going to be a superstar and it was some genius move on their part. They lucked into it and we didn't know how good he was for years after he was drafted. Guerin has a couple players he might have lucked into in Riley Heidt (64th overall) and David Spacek (153rd overall). We won't know for a number of years.

Guerin should also get credit for getting Kaprizov to sign and come over. Lord knows that Fletcher was really dropping the ball on that one.

 

[Wabit]

Look at this list and tell me the pool isn't better now. That's a very sad list of fourth line players. I remember people feeling good about Beckman and Khovanov (the head case). The rest were long shots to be NHL players. If Yurov, Ohgren, Stramel, Rossi, Khusnutdinov, Heidt, Kumpulainen, etc all top out as fourth line players that will be a MASSIVE disappointment.

I have Wallstedt in the same tier as Boldy. Rossi was supposed to be in the same tier. A stroke of bad luck mixed with some physical limitations have thrown that for a loop.

Agreed on Kaprizov, but it's not like Fletcher/Flahr knew that Kaprizov was going to be a superstar and it was some genius move on their part. They lucked into it and we didn't know how good he was for years after he was drafted. Guerin has a couple players he might have lucked into in Riley Heidt (64th overall) and David Spacek (153rd overall). We won't know for a number of years.

Guerin should also get credit for getting Kaprizov to sign and come over. Lord knows that Fletcher was really dropping the ball on that one.

Kap was coming the the NHL no matter who was the GM. He had done everything in the KHL. It wasn't as much Fletcher dropping the ball as Kap's former agent screwing both MN and Kap over.

I don't think the prospect pool is any better. One blue chip in Wallstedt is all I really see.


Doing almost nothing to the roster would have been
Kap/JEE/Zucc ($20.25m)
Boldy/Lundell/Fiala ($15m)
Greenway/Kunin//Parise ($13.5m)
Foligno/McBain/Hartman ($5m + whatever McBain gets)


Brodin/??? ($6m)
Suter/??? ($7.5m)

Kahk (2.75m)

That's a $70m cap hit with 4 d-men, a goalie, McBain, and pressbox player(s) to sign (Dewar, Shaw, Duhaime, etc). Trade Greenway and Kunin and free up $3m per player if needed.

Spurgeon walks after his last deal. Zucker still traded (return unknown). Lundell drafted instead of Rossi. Prospect pool unknown after 2019 and the only one I'm sad about is Wallstedt, the rest just aren't anything special to me.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

I don't think the prospect pool is any better.

Wheeler had the prospect pool ranked as 14th in 2020 and 1st in 2023.

2019-20 list might have the best player, but once you get past Boldy at 2 you go on a run of fringe NHLers that were mid round picks. Khovanov at 3, Firstov at 4, Hentges at 5, Beckman at 6, Menell at 7, Warren at 8, Lodnia at 9, and Hunter Jones at 10 There was zero depth to the pool at all. The only players with legit top 6 ability also played the same position. To make matters worse, most of these guys are still in the prospect. They were pushed down due to the number of better incoming prospects.

To compare to the 2022 HF Wild prospect rankings:
Khovanov: complete bust
Firstov: #20 on the list
Hentges: #16 on the list
Beckman: #11 on the list
Menell: traded away
Warren: outside the top 20 prospects
Lodnia: N/A
Jones: outside the top 20 prospects


If Wallstedt is a star level goaltender, the list heavily tilts towards 2023 being better. Yurov could give Boldy a bit of a run for his money. 3-10 are heavily favored to 2023.