Speculation: 2023-24 Armchair GM thread

[57special]

Here's to hoping Guerin learned his lesson now if he does end up trading Rossi. You green light the pick of a guy who's 5'9 without exceptional speed or strength, then trade him 2 years later because he's 5'9 without exceptional speed or strength.

Also hoping he doesn't overcompensate by drafting some low skill guy because he's 6'3 and strong.

During his draft year a lot of evaluators were saying that he had vg strength for a smaller guy. I think the problem with him, unlike a lot of other prospects, is that he didn't seem to grow in size, and that he was more or less maxed out physically.

I liked Lundell at the time, but people went on and on about his skating, and how bad it was. I thought it was nonsense. I also liked Mercer a lot, though it would've taken a lot of guts to pick him over Rossi. Some were touting Rossi as a top 5 pick back then.

I wonder how much Guerin's faith in Brackett was shaken by his eval of Rossi - I'm assuming that's how it went down.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Here's to hoping Guerin learned his lesson now if he does end up trading Rossi. You green light the pick of a guy who's 5'9 without exceptional speed or strength, then trade him 2 years later because he's 5'9 without exceptional speed or strength.

Also hoping he doesn't overcompensate by drafting some low skill guy because he's 6'3 and strong.

Whether it's true or not, I feel like Guerin has pretty explicitly said that does very little in regards to picking players in the draft.

 

[AKL]

During his draft year a lot of evaluators were saying that he had vg strength for a smaller guy. I think the problem with him, unlike a lot of other prospects, is that he didn't seem to grow in size, and that he was more or less maxed out physically.

I liked Lundell at the time, but people went on and on about his skating, and how bad it was. I thought it was nonsense. I also liked Mercer a lot, though it would've taken a lot of guts to pick him over Rossi. Some were touting Rossi as a top 5 pick back then.

I wonder how much Guerin's faith in Brackett was shaken by his eval of Rossi - I'm assuming that's how it went down.

It would have been equally as hard to take Lundell over Rossi at that point. I know there were guys here who wanted Lundell over him at the time, I think you and maybe Wabit were the big ones, so kudos to you (although I still haven't given up on Rossi being a top six center one day). But that said, there was so much positive sentiment about Rossi from everywhere. His maturity, his vision, his IQ, his commitment. I still think it was, not only justifiable, but the correct pick at the time. I was a major advocate for trading back into the first round to get Mercer though. I was pretty upset when Pittsburgh pulled their 1st from us.

Whether it's true or not, I feel like Guerin has pretty explicitly said that does very little in regards to picking players in the draft.

He's still got to green light the pick at the end of the day. He's the GM, he's the one building this team how he wants. When you get a 9th overall pick, you don't squander that. But I'm pretty sure when he came here he said he doesn't know much about drafting, isn't involved much, but his goal is to become more involved as time goes on.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

He's still got to green light the pick at the end of the day. He's the GM, he's the one building this team how he wants. When you get a 9th overall pick, you don't squander that. But I'm pretty sure when he came here he said he doesn't know much about drafting, isn't involved much, but his goal is to become more involved as time goes on.

The Rossi pick goes on Brackett's performance evaluation. I agree that if Guerin has lost faith in Rossi as an NHL player, and Brackett comes to him with a similar player in the future, that maybe that pick would deserve a higher level of scrutiny.

I just think that when you're talking about Guerin learning his lesson, I would attribute that much more to Brackett.

But then again, his 5'9" Russian center pick is going pretty good right now, so who knows.

 

[AKL]

The Rossi pick goes on Brackett's performance evaluation. I agree that if Guerin has lost faith in Rossi as an NHL player, and Brackett comes to him with a similar player in the future, that maybe that pick would deserve a higher level of scrutiny.

I just think that when you're talking about Guerin learning his lesson, I would attribute that much more to Brackett.

It goes on Brackett's performance evaluation behind closed doors. To the public eye, it's still on Guerin. Especially if he comes out of this deal losing value.

Like I'm sure if they have given up on Rossi, that's something Guerin and Brackett have already talked about. If Guerin trades Rossi now, let's say Rossi+21 for 12 is what that looks like, that's gonna be on Guerin's performance evaluation with Leipold. Especially down the line when you're looking at what all three of those assets end up becoming. If Guerin loses that trade, it looks REAL bad on him.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I'm sort of thinking the same, though I also don't think that there is going to be a potentially elite C prospect available there. More like a guy who has JEE potential, or a guy with offensive potential but size/strength/other issues. We all love JEE now, but for about 5 years there post draft a lot of us(not me) considered him a mediocre pick, and bemoaned that we didn't pick Boeser.

In other words, if you move up to 12th, then you might want to pick BFA (Best Forward Available) to get your best value, then pick a C with the 21st.

I've had my doubts about Rossi since before we drafted him, but he has great character, and has improved every year once his health problems were solved. Not sure i want to trade him before he has another camp with us. He just needs to get a bit faster, and a bit stronger, and he'll be an effective top 9 C, if not top 6.

I'd rather trade Addison(even though i don't want to trade him, period)and VGK's 2nd for a pick in the early 20's or so. Pick one solid C type like Edstrom of Ritchie, then another riskier one like Heidt, or even a forward like But, or Honzek.

I agree with this. If for some reason Moore falls to the 10 range I’d happily shoot to go draft him. That speed is unteachable.

If we do a safe pick and risky pick with two first this year and both are C I’d be very happy.

 

[Spurgeon]

Moving Rossi for picks doesn’t make sense to me at this point. This team needs an NHL-ready forward prospect to jump into the roster over these next two seasons.

I’d be okay with trading up using our 1st, 2nds, Addison, and any of our D prospects. But I think they need to keep all their high-end forward prospects right now. Team doesn’t need to rush anything and they’re going to have a ton of cap starting next year.

 

[57special]

It goes on Brackett's performance evaluation behind closed doors. To the public eye, it's still on Guerin. Especially if he comes out of this deal losing value.

Like I'm sure if they have given up on Rossi, that's something Guerin and Brackett have already talked about. If Guerin trades Rossi now, let's say Rossi+21 for 12 is what that looks like, that's gonna be on Guerin's performance evaluation with Leipold. Especially down the line when you're looking at what all three of those assets end up becoming. If Guerin loses that trade, it looks REAL bad on him.

I think Rossi + 21 for 12 is pretty rich for us, as I don't think that there is likely to be a no brainer top 6C prospect(even better a potential 1st line C, which is what we really want) still there. ARI can afford to pick BPA in this draft with Cooley waiting in the wings, and even more so of they get Rossi back in trade. Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, and maybe Smith. Those are the guys with perceived #1C skills, and even one or two of them might fail to develop, as Turcotte(2019) and Byfield(2020) appear to be.

I would think that Addison + Rossi for the 12th would be the deal, if they have indeed decided to move on from Rossi. I am firmly on the fence about Rossi. He is definitely a better all round player than Petan(a really good AHL'er)already, and will, hopefully continue to grow, but there are some disturbing similarities. Both are shifty, skilled, creative, and smart with the puck, but both are not NHL strong, or NHL fast, and are ineffective in situations where those tools are called for. Rossi reminds me a bit of a smaller, slower PMB in some ways ... a guy who had to retire from the league because he could protect himself.

Rossi could also show up next fall having turned a corner, make the team, and become the offensive counterpart to JEE in the top 6.

Moving Rossi for picks doesn’t make sense to me at this point. This team needs an NHL-ready forward prospect to jump into the roster over these next two seasons.

I’d be okay with trading up using our 1st, 2nds, Addison, and any of our D prospects. But I think they need to keep all their high-end forward prospects right now. Team doesn’t need to rush anything and they’re going to have a ton of cap starting next year.

I know what you are saying, but if they have privately decided that Rossi is not going to be a top 6 C of the future then I'd rather they move him now than wait. I don't have high expectations for next year, so I'm fine with moving on from Rossi.

 

[AKL]

I think Rossi + 21 for 12 is pretty rich for us, as I don't think that there is likely to be a no brainer top 6C prospect(even better a potential 1st line C, which is what we really want) still there. ARI can afford to pick BPA in this draft with Cooley waiting in the wings, and even more so of they get Rossi back in trade. Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, and maybe Smith. Those are the guys with perceived #1C skills, and even one or two of them might fail to develop, as Turcotte(2019) and Byfield(2020) appear to be.

I would think that Addison + Rossi for the 12th would be the deal, if they have indeed decided to move on from Rossi. I am firmly on the fence about Rossi. He is definitely a better all round player than Petan(a really good AHL'er)already, and will, hopefully continue to grow, but there are some disturbing similarities. Both are shifty, skilled, creative, and smart with the puck, but both are not NHL strong, or NHL fast, and are ineffective in situations where those tools are called for. Rossi reminds me a bit of a smaller, slower PMB in some ways ... a guy who had to retire from the league because he could protect himself.

Rossi could also show up next fall having turned a corner, make the team, and become the offensive counterpart to JEE in the top 6.

It's super rich for us. I don't make that deal myself, just a quick example.

I really like the idea of Rossi+Addison if Arizona goes for it. I like trading up to the 12 area, I think it's a deal that could work for both teams because Arizona already has 6 too. If Arizona didn't have 6 we wouldn't be having this conversation.
I really really like the idea of trading up to 12 while keeping 21. I think that could be a massive boon for us.

I'm curious how many deals we can make here.
Rossi+2nd for 12? Is that enough? Rossi+64+3rd/4th?
Then Addison+53 for... something in the late 20s? Early 30s?

Come out of it with 12, 21 and 30 something? That would be pretty good.
Hell, how far into the top 10 can 12+21+~35 get you?

 

[thestonedkoala]

During his draft year a lot of evaluators were saying that he had vg strength for a smaller guy. I think the problem with him, unlike a lot of other prospects, is that he didn't seem to grow in size, and that he was more or less maxed out physically.

I liked Lundell at the time, but people went on and on about his skating, and how bad it was. I thought it was nonsense. I also liked Mercer a lot, though it would've taken a lot of guts to pick him over Rossi. Some were touting Rossi as a top 5 pick back then.

I wonder how much Guerin's faith in Brackett was shaken by his eval of Rossi - I'm assuming that's how it went down.

COVID is no joke. My wife's boss got it and he is still not 100% even after 6 months. Rossi not only lost a year of development but probably has lingering effects from it. The more science coming out the more they are realizing the long term health ramifications on people. Hard to say what Rossi might be like if he didn't catch it.

Lundell had to be moved off center to wing. Maybe they can do the same with Rossi?

Guerin's faith in Brackett should be shaken on how bad his picks have been. None of them have made any impact to the NHL and only two make any sort of waves in the AHL.

 

[57special]

It's super rich for us. I don't make that deal myself, just a quick example.

I really like the idea of Rossi+Addison if Arizona goes for it. I like trading up to the 12 area, I think it's a deal that could work for both teams because Arizona already has 6 too. If Arizona didn't have 6 we wouldn't be having this conversation.
I really really like the idea of trading up to 12 while keeping 21. I think that could be a massive boon for us.

I'm curious how many deals we can make here.
Rossi+2nd for 12? Is that enough? Rossi+64+3rd/4th?
Then Addison+53 for... something in the late 20s? Early 30s?

Come out of it with 12, 21 and 30 something? That would be pretty good.
Hell, how far into the top 10 can 12+21+~35 get you?

You know ARI more than most of us. I would think that being able to pick 6oa, AND netting Addison and Rossi, might be a pretty good deal for them, also.

It's pretty easy to envision a scenario where Addison and Rossi end up being better players than whatever we pick at 6oa.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

COVID is no joke. My wife's boss got it and he is still not 100% even after 6 months. Rossi not only lost a year of development but probably has lingering effects from it. The more science coming out the more they are realizing the long term health ramifications on people. Hard to say what Rossi might be like if he didn't catch it.

Lundell had to be moved off center to wing. Maybe they can do the same with Rossi?

Guerin's faith in Brackett should be shaken on how bad his picks have been. None of them have made any impact to the NHL and only two make any sort of waves in the AHL.

So in the same post where you say that Covid could very easily be affecting Rossi's ability to make an NHL impact, you say that the pick itself is bad because he hasn't made an NHL impact? Doesn't quite seem to make sense.

 

[thestonedkoala]

So in the same post where you say that Covid could very easily be affecting Rossi's ability to make an NHL impact, you say that the pick itself is bad because he hasn't made an NHL impact? Doesn't quite seem to make sense.

None of Brackett's picks have made any impact. Rossi and Wallstedt have looked good in the AHL. Hunt is...injured but could make an impact.

I don't think Rossi was a bad pick at all especially given the circumstances but something is going on...either Brackett isn't picking the right guys or the Wild is having issues developing players in the AHL.

You can still make a good pick but it still being a bad pick for the team.

 

[Ban Hammered]

None of Brackett's picks have made any impact. Rossi and Wallstedt have looked good in the AHL. Hunt is...injured but could make an impact.

I don't think Rossi was a bad pick at all especially given the circumstances but something is going on...either Brackett isn't picking the right guys or the Wild is having issues developing players in the AHL.

You can still make a good pick but it still being a bad pick for the team.

It's been 3 years and we haven't been picking anywhere in the top 5. Plenty of teams have had picks in the last 3 years that have made "no impact" Most NHLers do not get into the league in 3 years and stick.

 

[Spurgeon]

It's been 3 years and we haven't been picking anywhere in the top 5. Plenty of teams have had picks in the last 3 years that have made "no impact" Most NHLers do not get into the league in 3 years and stick.

Definitely too early, but there have been picks made after some of Brackett’s picks that are already making NHL impacts.

Rossi: Perfetti, Lundell, Jarvis, Mercer

ROR: Faber

Wallstedt: Johnston (obviously not a bad pick, but maybe they could’ve moved up from #26 instead of Lambos)

Peart: Knies, Moser

Still plenty of time for Brackett’s picks to turn out fine though.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

None of Brackett's picks have made any impact. Rossi and Wallstedt have looked good in the AHL. Hunt is...injured but could make an impact.

I don't think Rossi was a bad pick at all especially given the circumstances but something is going on...either Brackett isn't picking the right guys or the Wild is having issues developing players in the AHL.

You can still make a good pick but it still being a bad pick for the team.

Brackett's 1st round pick in his 2nd draft was a goalie picked 20th. Do you have the expectation that a goalie picked 20th should already be making an impact?

You could maybe make the case that Lambos should borderline have that expectation, but he was also one of the later cuts out of camp (if I recall correctly), and our team already had (and still has) 4 veteran LHDs on the roster/under contract.

Do you have the expectation that anybody from the 2022 draft should have made an impact in the 2022-23 season when our first 1st round pick was 19th?

Essentially this currently boils down to Rossi/Marat/ROR/Hunt. Rossi you already covered the Covid angle; Marat has a KHL contract thing, and ROR/Hunt, you could apply the same argument as Lambos.

Not saying that Brackett has knocked it out of the park, and I was never really on board with the whole Brackett love-fest that occurred when he was hired, but calling picks "bad" right now seems a bit out of touch with reality. They can definitely turn out to be bad in the coming years, but I'm not in a rush to do so.

 

[Ban Hammered]

Definitely too early, but there have been picks made after some of Brackett’s picks that are already making NHL impacts.

Rossi: Perfetti, Lundell, Jarvis, Mercer

ROR: Faber

Wallstedt: Johnston (obviously not a bad pick, but maybe they could’ve moved up from #26 instead of Lambos)

Peart: Knies, Moser

Still plenty of time for Brackett’s picks to turn out fine though.

I didn't say none. I said there aren't many...and in Rossi's case, none of those guys lost an entire year of development.

 

[Spurgeon]

I didn't say none. I said there aren't many...and in Rossi's case, none of those guys lost an entire year of development.

Just pointing out some examples of guys that were picked near these players & made sense.

The Rossi pick gets a pass because of the health circumstances, but the criticisms of his game at the time of that pick are still present to this day (smaller, average skater).

ROR over Faber is a pretty big miss considering Faber was the 2nd defenseman selected after ROR.

Knies was drafted 3 picks after Peart and I think it could be argued we needed more forward talent at the time of that pick having already drafted Lambos, ROR, and Hunt.

Can’t really complain about missing Johnston though because Wallstedt was the correct pick.

 

[57special]

Still too early to say much of anything about Guerin/Brackett's drafting. Marat is trending well, Hunt and Peart, too, but still too early. I think that this is a make or break year for Rossi. If he isn't up and contributing to the team by around Christmas then we might have a bust on our hands.

LAK's picked Turcotte at #5 over some really talented over Zegras, Boldy, Seider. That's gotta hurt. Byfield has looked decidedly mediocre, though he was always going to be a project, but still, at #2oa you want something really, really good. NYR's picks of Laf and Kakko also looks pretty suspect.

Drafting involves a lot of luck, and, I think, courage of your convictions.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Brackett's 1st round pick in his 2nd draft was a goalie picked 20th. Do you have the expectation that a goalie picked 20th should already be making an impact?

You could maybe make the case that Lambos should borderline have that expectation, but he was also one of the later cuts out of camp (if I recall correctly), and our team already had (and still has) 4 veteran LHDs on the roster/under contract.

Do you have the expectation that anybody from the 2022 draft should have made an impact in the 2022-23 season when our first 1st round pick was 19th?

Essentially this currently boils down to Rossi/Marat/ROR/Hunt. Rossi you already covered the Covid angle; Marat has a KHL contract thing, and ROR/Hunt, you could apply the same argument as Lambos.

Not saying that Brackett has knocked it out of the park, and I was never really on board with the whole Brackett love-fest that occurred when he was hired, but calling picks "bad" right now seems a bit out of touch with reality. They can definitely turn out to be bad in the coming years, but I'm not in a rush to do so.

Actually that goaltender is already making an impact, but that's an exception.

It's not that Lambos didn't make the cut, it's the fact that he had a disappointing WJC and didn't even make it this year. His development has been really uneven and his points have stalled for Winnipeg. He was a boom or bust pick and he's closer to a bust than a boom for the Wild, especially given their depth.

Novak has cancer, so no problem there. Hunt is struggling with injuries. O'Rourke has been a disappointment. He got some development in during the shorten season, but doesn't seem to have progressed. He'll be a steady depth defenseman at best, but he didn't have the impact needed in the AHL this year.

They traded Pillar already, we'll see what Bankier and Masters can do. Who the hell is Benoit?

Yurov is getting bounced around. Haight only took off when he got paired with Misa, so questions are is Haight a product of Misa or did he actually take a step forward? Outside of that, there is literally no buzz around him or the other second round pick in Lorenz. Milne was decent in the AHL, but he and Spacek are overagers. We'll see if Spacek actually has an impact in the AHL this year. Healey is? Petrovsky is my favorite dark horse, but like Beckman I feel like there is going to be a lot of numbers in the juniors and a steep curve in the AHL.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Actually that goaltender is already making an impact, but that's an exception.

It's not that Lambos didn't make the cut, it's the fact that he had a disappointing WJC and didn't even make it this year. His development has been really uneven and his points have stalled for Winnipeg. He was a boom or bust pick and he's closer to a bust than a boom for the Wild, especially given their depth.

Novak has cancer, so no problem there. Hunt is struggling with injuries. O'Rourke has been a disappointment. He got some development in during the shorten season, but doesn't seem to have progressed. He'll be a steady depth defenseman at best, but he didn't have the impact needed in the AHL this year.

They traded Pillar already, we'll see what Bankier and Masters can do. Who the hell is Benoit?

Yurov is getting bounced around. Haight only took off when he got paired with Misa, so questions are is Haight a product of Misa or did he actually take a step forward? Outside of that, there is literally no buzz around him or the other second round pick in Lorenz. Milne was decent in the AHL, but he and Spacek are overagers. We'll see if Spacek actually has an impact in the AHL this year. Healey is? Petrovsky is my favorite dark horse, but like Beckman I feel like there is going to be a lot of numbers in the juniors and a steep curve in the AHL.

Young players and recent draft picks have question marks... what a crazy world.

 

[Spurgeon]

Still too early to say much of anything about Guerin/Brackett's drafting. Marat is trending well, Hunt and Peart, too, but still too early. I think that this is a make or break year for Rossi. If he isn't up and contributing to the team by around Christmas then we might have a bust on our hands.

LAK's picked Turcotte at #5 over some really talented over Zegras, Boldy, Seider. That's gotta hurt. Byfield has looked decidedly mediocre, though he was always going to be a project, but still, at #2oa you want something really, really good. NYR's picks of Laf and Kakko also looks pretty suspect.

Drafting involves a lot of luck, and, I think, courage of your convictions.

As long as Brackett doesn’t ever pull a 2015 Boston Bruins 1st round, I’m good with him.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Here's a sobering fact:
Greenway (2015) is the last 2nd round pick to make the Wild and before that was Zucker (2010). They have had only (1) draft pick in the past 5 years make it to the NHL (Dewar) from the 2nd round and below that has made any sort of impact. Before that Duhaime, Shaw and Kaprizov are from 6+ years ago.

Only Graovac and Beckman have scored more than 20 goals for Iowa (AHL) that were drafted by Minnesota.

Minnesota just does not draft forwards well after the 1st round with the exception of Kaprizov.

Young players and recent draft picks have question marks... what a crazy world.

Stankoven, Raty, Zellwinger, Knies, Moser, go what question marks?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Stankoven, Raty, Zellwinger, Knies, Moser, go what question marks?

0 NHL games
15 NHL games (3 points)
0 NHL games
10 NHL games
Good on Moser for playing a full season already for a team that is in a position to push young players into the lineup.

 

[AKL]

Here's a sobering fact:
Greenway (2015) is the last 2nd round pick to make the Wild and before that was Zucker (2010). They have had only (1) draft pick in the past 5 years make it to the NHL (Dewar) from the 2nd round and below that has made any sort of impact. Before that Duhaime, Shaw and Kaprizov are from 6+ years ago.

Only Graovac and Beckman have scored more than 20 goals for Iowa (AHL) that were drafted by Minnesota.

Minnesota just does not draft forwards well after the 1st round with the exception of Kaprizov.



Stankoven, Raty, Zellwinger, Knies, Moser, go what question marks?

Different scouting department and a GM that traded away half of those 2nds. Like let's be clear here, the Wild didn't even have a 2nd round pick from 2016-2018, so is it really all that surprising that they haven't had a 2nd round pick play a game for them from those years? After that it was Firstov, who still has NHL potential, then Khusnutdinov, who is tracking pretty well. Only 8 picks from the 2nd round in 2020 have played an NHL game, and 7 of them still qualify for the Calder trophy because they haven't played enough games yet. I can't believe this has to be a discussion. Talk about unreasonable expectations.

And again, this is an entirely new scouting department from the 2015 and earlier days.